4 April 2015


While analyzing the Daily charts of “NIFTY”, we found that the Nifty is in “Bull Market”. Looking at the very big picture, the red channel can't be overlooked as it contains the whole secular bull market. Irrespective of the diametric scenario coming true or not, Whenever Nifty touches the lower red trendline, we can expect a major multi-year rally. But a fall to the lower red trendline does not appear at all likely at the moment. The long term possibility of the Indian equity markets suggests continuation of the Indian Growth story in the coming years. This Nifty weekly Log chart shows a pronounced uptrend within the blue channel trendlines. The contracting triangle in the 2014 period at the bottom of the chart is compared with the contracting triangle seen in current period since 2015. The market is in the process of confirming a bullish break above the triangle and a new bull market might just be getting born. Although there are risks associated with the current up move in the Nifty (especially from the global market in India), and although this is not a roaring, secular bull market, the study of historical Time-and-Price patterns below suggests there is room for continued bullishness.
Nifty continues to rally from here and rallies beyond 8600, and in doing so, breaks above the trend line from the top of 8636 level then, and only then we could rule out this extreme view and start considering a very aggressively bullish stance on Nifty and that would have its targets at 9000+ on Nifty. The big resistance placed between the level 8533-8555 has been broken in the last trading session. Now bulls will move further upside only. Technically Nifty future is looking bullish on long term charts, it may trade in range of 9100 and 8800 in near term while with the breaks of its support mark of 8800, Although the ongoing correction in Nifty looks sharp, Nifty should find a bottom in the 8480-8350 range and start rallying again. Nifty may make fresh highs above 9120 this year again. "Right now there is no confirmation that 9120 is the high for the year. It is just a major level which has been hit. The Nifty rose 1.1 per cent to post a weekly gain of 2.9 per cent, its best since the week ended on Jan 23. Banking stocks rose with the Bank Nifty adding 2.3 per cent ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy review on April 7. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold although markets are bracing for a potential surprise rate cut.

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