WEEKLY
RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 7455, 7662, 7769, 7875
PIVOT
POINT: 7247
WEEKLY
SUPPORT FOR NIFTY : 7141, 7034, 6827, 6770
WEEKLY
CHAT FOR NIFTY
DAILY
RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 7476, 7500, 7525, 7598
PIVOT
POINT: 7452
DAILY
SUPPORT FOR NIFTY : 7440, 7427, 7403, 7379
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY
RALLY
GETS EXTENDED POST BUDGET.
As expected the market went into a
short covering mode on completion of the Union Budget. Last week, it was
mentioned that no negative news will be perceived as good news for the market; the
market played on similar lines as there were no devils in the Budget. There was
no structural change in Long Term Capital Gain Tax, and the Fiscal Discipline
targets were adhered to. This pushed the market higher and the Bears had to run
to cover their shorts. Thus Nifty tested and overcame Resistance zone of
7323-7363 and now is on course to test the strong Resistance zone of Nifty
7534-7600.
SHORT TERM TREND TURNS POSITIVE.
This week, both the indices recovered
and managed a close above the short term average of 20dma Nifty 7174 and even the medium term average of
50dma Nifty 7420. But Nifty continues to remain well below the long term
average of 200dma Nifty 7948. Thus, the trend in
the short term and medium term timeframe has turned positive whereas the trend
in the long term timeframe remains bearish.
SHORT COVERING RALLY LEVELS.
The indices are witnessing a Pull-Back
rally, the genesis of which lies in short covering. For the Immediate short
term, we are considering the fall from Nifty 7972. The relevant Retracement levels for Short Term are placed at Nifty
7264-7399-7534. In the Intermediate term, we consider the fall Nifty
from 8336. The relevant Retracement
levels for Medium Term are placed at Nifty 7403-7581-7759.
BULLISH GAP UP.
While moving higher, Nifty left behind
a Bullish Rising Gap between Nifty
7308/7235. This Gap will acts as strong
Support going forward. Besides this Gap is also a Measuring Gap, the relevant Target as per Gap Theory falls at
Nifty 7718.
OSCILLATOR ANALYSIS.
MACD, despite being in the negative
zone, continues with its Buy signal. Price ROC is positive and hence continues
with its Buy signal. RSI (59) suggests Bullish Momentum.
VOLATILITY CRUNCH AS EXPECTED.
Post Budget, Volatility Index India VIX
dropped from 22 to around 17 levels. This event is called Volatility Crunch and
it exactly played out as expected. Option traders who created short Vega
strategies would have benefited immensely. Options data for February series
indicates highest Put Open Interest build-up at the strike of 7000 and highest
Call build-up at the strike of 7500. Thus Option data suggests a trading range with resistance coming in at 7500
and support at 7000.
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