5 June 2018

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR RBI POLICY 6 JUNE 2018

KEEP AN EYE ON RELINFRA ON 06 JUNE
Nifty came down & closed below 10600 mark; eying RBI meet due tomorrow..!!! The market has ended a highly volatile day on negative note as investors chose to remain on the sidelines ahead of the outcome of RBI’s monetary policy meet. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Resave Bank of India began its three-day meeting on Monday amid high speculation that it may hike key interest rates for the first time in over four years, keeping firming inflation in view. The Sensex came down 108 points at 34903 and the Nifty future came down below 10600 mark to close at 10,596. The bank Nifty ended on flat note at 26257. An increasing number of economists expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise interest rates on Wednesday, a Reuters poll found, but most still think the central bank will stay on hold and use this week’s meeting to prepare for an August hike. Among macro data released earlier today, activity in India’s service industry shrank in May for the first time in three months as new orders stagnated, but business optimism was the highest since 2015 on expectations that demand will turn around, a business survey showed.
We expect a modestly negative to flat start on wednesday, but there is a high probability that the market will continue to oscillate in a capped range with some volatility ingrained in it. The 10650 and 10700 levels will act as immediate resistance on the upper side, while supports will come in at 10550 and 10500 levels.  For any fresh sustainable up move to resume, Nifty will have to move past the 10675 -10700 zone and sustain above that. Unless this happens, the market will continue to remain susceptible to rangebound movement and volatile oscillations. Keep moderate exposure and continue to adopt a very stock-specific approach for the next session. 
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Resistance: 10650, 10675, 10700
Support: 10525, 10500, 10475


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