21 September 2018

NEXT WEEK NIFTY PREDICTION & CHARTS 24 SEP TO 28 SEP 18

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11300, 11550, 11700
 PIVOT POINT: 11100
WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11000, 10900, 10800
WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY











DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11250, 11350, 11450
PIVOT POINT: 11150
DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11100,11050,11000
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY
Scary Friday it was. There was absolute carnage visible on D-Street. The Sensex  & nifty have seen a sharp swing in the last one hour of Friday. The Sensex crashed over 1,000 points in a span of just a few minutes, but recouped more than 700 points immediately thereafter, while the Nifty has given up 11100 as well.   Globally, oil prices were little changed on Friday after falling in the previous session as US President Donald Trump urged OPEC to lower crude prices at its meeting in Algeria this weekend.  Market went through some scary moments on Friday when the currency worries once again spooked the traders’ sentiments. The week was started with downside gap and then a sustained selling throughout the remaining part of the day resulted into a sharp cut of nearly 1.20% from the Friday’s close. On Monday nifty future has closed at 11407. Our currency was certainly undergoing some terrible time and in fact things were getting worse day by day. The volatility had risen to such an extent; undoubtedly is having an adverse effect on equity markets and this was what we witnessed in last couple of days. Tuesday, index consolidated throughout the first half but the latter one turned out to be a nightmare as Nifty sliding below the 11300 mark within no time & closed the day at 11310. Markets were still feeling the heat and the gap up opening on Wednesday was merely a formality as index immediately sliding below the 11300 mark in the initial hour of the trade. There was couple of attempts made to stay beyond this psychological level; but all failed due to strong selling pressure at higher levels. The index then corrected in the latter half which has been the recent trend and hence, eventually Nifty went on to conclude the session tad below the 11250 mark & closed at 11272. Thursday market was shut on account of “Moharram”.
NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11500
The Market seems to be a falling knife and makes sense to stay put at this point. Overall, sentiment is getting sour and it is better to wait and conserve the cash. It looks like something is brewing. There is no fundamental reason for the fall that happened in the market on Friday. It rather seems to be due to technical factors. As we are entering in the expiry week,  there will be two ways to look at it. On Monday, we might see a small pullback in the market. However, a broader view of the market on both daily and weekly charts would show the bearish undertone might continue to persist and the most immediate and major pattern support of 11000 might come into play again if weakness persists for longer time. Next week, Nifty is likely to see immediate technical resistance at 11450 and 11600 levels while supports should come in at 11000 and 10900. 
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.
The Relative Strength Index or RSI on the weekly chart stood at 57.2. It showed a bullish divergence against price. While Nifty marked a fresh 14-period low, the RSI did not. The weekly MACD is showing at 275.83. it will remained bearish even as it traded below the signal line. No significant formations were observed on the candles.  There were no negative cues from the global markets overnight. The only thing we would now need to guard against would be rupee behavior against the dollar, which is likely to cool off slightly. All of this may lead to a mild pullback in the market. However, as often mentioned in our previous notes, we will continue to remain vulnerable to profit taking at higher levels.  What we are seeing at present is a classic mean reversion on the charts and the primary uptrend continues to remain intact. We recommend using all down ticks to make select purchases while vigilantly guarding profits at higher levels. A cautious outlook is advised for the next week.


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