NEXT WEEK NIFTY PREDICTION & CHARTS 15 OCT TO 19 OCT 2018

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 10600, 10700, 10800

 PIVOT POINT: 10300

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10100,10000,9900

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 10550, 10600, 10650

PIVOT POINT: 10400

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10350, 10250, 10150

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The carnage continues and the distressed market is in no mood to spare the market participants caught on the wrong foot. But, historically it’s proven, this is how market functions as it always tries to choke traders/investors up with the velocity of which it moves. During the week, last three days have been a complete nosedive for nifty, which consolidated in a range last week. In the course of the action, the index went on to breach all major supports one after another to eventually register the biggest weekly loss after February 12, 2016. Trading for the week began on a sluggish note and during the initial hours, Nifty once again nosedived to test the 10200 mark. This was followed by a V-shaped recovery in the midst of the session. However, once again this bounce back got sold into completely and in the course of the action, index went on to breach its morning’s low. Fortunately for us, the damage did not increase from there and in fact, we saw yet another bout of strong buying towards the fag end to conclude on a positive note.  On Monday nifty future closed at  10379. On Tuesday  markets had a positive opening with a marginal upside gap as indicated by the SGX Nifty. However, index failed to sustain at higher levels and hence, the early morning lead was merely a formality. During the day index made various attempts to give some bounce back but there every attempt got sold into and eventually index closed with nearly half a percent cut. Nifty future closed at 10314 on Tuesday.  On Wednesday, our markets opened with a decent upside gap despite mixed global cues and in fact, the momentum got accelerated right from the word go. Subsequently, a sustained buying was being witnessed throughout the session to eventually conclude the session with whopping gains over one and half a percent. Nifty future closed at 10324 on Wednesday. After Wednesday’s smart relief rally, no one would have expected such kind of terrible start. But, it’s beyond anyone’s control and this time, the global concerns spooked the market participants. At the close, things certainly do not see horrifying as the index managed to hold its key levels of 10200, which is an indication that probably the sellers have exhausted at least for a while. But, fortunately for us, there was no additional pain seen after a massive gap down. In fact, we did see our markets trying to find their feet throughout the day and the damage was not as big as it looked in the morning & nifty future closed the days at 10252. On Friday nifty posted its biggest intra-day percentage gain in over two years as market sentiment was lifted by a rebound in the rupee, easing crude oil prices and recovery in the global markets as well & closed at 10485 up by 233.

 NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 10000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @10600

So many market participants were keeping a close eye (with a ray of hope) on how index behaves around the daily ‘200 SMA’ placed in the zone of 10800 – 10600. But, generally, no support works in a falling market like this and hence, there was no respect at all for this key long-term moving average. We are significantly below this now and are standing around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire up move from 9950 to 11750. This coincides with the weekly ’89 EMA’, but it would be very difficult to comment whether market would find some support or not. Yes, there could be in between bounce backs; but how sustainable they would be that time will only tell. In our sense, traders should ideally stay light on positions and should avoid taking undue risks. It’s advisable not to pre-empt anything and let market give further indication. For momentum traders, it would be a difficult time going ahead as the volatility has increased tremendously; but having said that for investors, such dips can provide better opportunities to add quality propositions to their portfolio only in a staggered manner. As far as levels are concerned, for the coming week, 10150 followed by 10000 would be seen immediate supports; whereas on the flipside, 10550 – 10650 are likely to act as strong hurdles.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

The index closed near 10500 mark and made a bearish candle formation on the daily charts which resembles like a 'Bearish Engulfing' pattern. A Bearish Engulfing Pattern consists of two candles. One candle is usually a small candle which is followed by a large black or red candlestick pattern that engulfs the short one or the previous candle. A bearish candlestick pattern suggests that bears were able to regain control after the index moved in a narrow range for the past few sessions. The Nifty opened the week  at 10273 and touched a high of 10489 on Friday , but gradually wiped out gains on Friday morning trade and opened low at 10208. In the last hour of trade, it rebounded, but within few minutes of trade, it caught in bear trap again and fell sharply to hit month’s low of 10155. On Friday market posted solid gains ahead of the release of key macroeconomic data. the Nifty future rose to 10508.  Market continued to remain volatile as pull back attempt was aborted almost around Friday’s high of 10508 levels before signing off the session with a bearish candle which resembles a Bearish Engulfing formation as today's candle body engulfed the candle body of Friday’s session. Intraday pull back attempts can be expected going forward they shall remain untradeable as indices are yo-yoing in both directions and Nifty50 may not gain sufficient strength unless it registers a close above 10550 levels. On the downsides, breach of 10100 can give enough impetus to bears once again to push the indices below 10,000 levels. Hence, it looks prudent on the part of traders to stay away from this market till volatility subsides or trade with expert guidance with caution.