NEXT WEEK NIFTY PREDICTION & CHARTS 8 OCT TO 12 OCT 2018

Unchanged repo rate totally vanished the presence of bulls in the market. Bears may pull down nifty till 10,000 in the coming week. 
WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY:10500,10700,10900

 PIVOT POINT: 10200

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  10000,9800,9600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 10350,10450,10550

PIVOT POINT:10200

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  10100,10000,9900

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Domestic equity market witnessed a sudden selling pressure after the Reserve Bank of India kept rate unchanged at 6.50 %.  The index settled the day 792 points, lower at 34377. Its counterpart Nifty ended at 10316, down 282 points. On Friday Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today decided to keep the policy rate unchanged. This was a positive surprise for the markets with the consensus expectation being a hike of 25 bps. RBI policy announcement of keeping rates unchanged is a surprise; this may lead to a negative impact especially the currency market. 
Trading for the week began slightly lower as indicated by the SGX Nifty. Subsequently, in the initial hours, we did see some attempts to recover from early morning lows. However, a strong bout of selling dragged the index significantly lower and within no time, index corrected towards 10800. Things looked extremely bleak at one point; but fortunately, our markets attracted enormous buying interest at lower levels and throughout the second half, there was broad-based rally seen to reclaim the 11000 mark. On Monday nifty future closed at 11061. On Tuesday market was closed on accounts of Gandhi Jayanti.  There is no respite for our markets as Monday’s recovery did not last long. On Wednesday, market opened slightly lower and then traded in a range throughout the first half. There were a couple of attempts made to bounce back from lower levels but all eventually got sold into. In fact, the selling aggravated towards the fag end of the day to conclude the day with a massive cut of 1.5% from the previous close. Wednesday nifty future closed at 10893. On Thursday gap down opening was very much in-line with what SGX Nifty was suggesting early in the morning. However, things worsened as the day progressed and in the course of action, the Nifty corrected more than 300 points on an intraday basis. There were couple of attempts made to see some respite but all got sold into as the selling pressure was quite fierce at higher levels. In terms of index, Thursday was a terrible day for our benchmarks as it was the biggest single day loss (on closing basis) in the recent past, nifty future closed the day at 10631.  

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 10100; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @10500

As long as it holds below 10500, the Nifty may continue to extend weakness towards 10,200 and the psychologically important 10000 levels, while on the upside, the medium-term hurdle is shifting from 10850 to 10650 levels. As long as Nifty doesn’t surpass any immediate hurdle, the overall weak structure could limit the upside for the market. 
Broad range for the week is seen from 10000 on downside & 10500 on upside.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

The Nifty50 index slipped towards the 10250 mark amid continued selling pressure. It has been making lower highs and lower lows on the weekly scale and tanked around 1500 points in last five weeks. It has formed a bearish candle on daily and weekly scales, which suggests the bears are holding a tight grip on the market. The index has formed a ‘Three Black Crows’ pattern on the daily scale as the bears are riding the decline. Nifty has seen the lowest weekly close in last 26 weeks. Whatever we witnessed in the last couple of weeks is a classic example of market correction. When it begins, whatever the reason be, it just remains reluctant to give any kind of minor bounce also. Such periods can be scary not only for traders but also for investors. As far as levels are concerned, index is trading around key levels i.e. ‘200 SMA’ placed at 10200-10500. It would be important to see how index behaves around it and at the same time, in the upward direction, 10500 followed by 10700 are the levels to watch out for. In our sense, traders need to be light on positions and should ideally wait for clear trend to emerge to form aggressive positions. Most of the participants have been talking about and keeping a close eye (with some hope) on how index behaves around the daily ‘200 SMA’ placed in the zone of 10250 – 10650. Market had no respect for that level as we witnessed a gap down opening below it and then extension of the fall thereafter. As a result, now, a gap area has been formed which would now be seen as major hurdle. Before that 10500 is likely to act as an immediate resistance. On the downside, today’s low requires some attention. Recently, markets have not given respect to any support and hence, traders are advised to stay light and should avoid taking undue risks.