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NIFTY TODAY

The exit polls on state assembly elections kept nifty on tenterhooks. Nifty is now bracing itself for the results that will be out on Tuesday.  Today the Sensex settled down by 714 points, at 34959 while the Nifty tanked 205 points, at 10488. Market sentiment got affected as exit polls on Friday indicated that the Bharatiya Janata Party risks losing control of Rajasthan to the Congress and faces a close fight in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The Telangana election results, the Madhya Pradesh election results, the Rajasthan election results, the Chhattisgarh election results and Mizoram election results will be announced tomorrow 11 Dec 2018 by the Election Commission.

NIFTY TOMORROW

Now 10500 levels has become an impotent level for nifty. Only above 10550 levels could help bulls to comeback in the ground.  Traders should trade with proper strategy in such scenario. It looks prudent for traders to avoid short-term bets and focus on any breach of larger trend, which may chalk out the future course of action for the indices. The 10435 level still looks like a sacrosanct support, a breach of which shall take the Nifty future below the 10400 level. A decisive close above the 10600 level should usher in a sustainable uptrend.  Along with global events and macro factors, from last one month or so, all eyes have been on one key event which is state elections results, the widely considered as semi-final before general elections 2019. After a sharp correction in September and October, the market managed to rally sharply (9 percent or 900 points) in November driven by steep fall in oil prices and appreciation in rupee. It turned volatile in last few sessions, especially as results five states elections neared. Before the counting day on December 11, investors are trying to guess the likely results through opinion polls, as well as exit polls. In five states, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are key ones for both national parties BJP and Congress ahead of Lok Sabha elections. But for ruling party BJP, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are key states as both gave more than 50 seats in Lok Sabha elections 2014. In extreme case the market may hit March lows, but in positive case, it will go around 11,000 levels on the Nifty. If it loses in all states then 10,000 levels may be seen. Nifty is trading in a broader rising wedge pattern on daily time frame; lower trend line of the wedge comes around 10,578 and upper trend line is near 11,055. And that remains the near-term trading range for the market. However, as the market is awaiting a series of events to unfold like state election results, US Fed policy and UK parliament vote on modalities of Brexit, these market views would remain susceptible to major swings. According to charts, the key support level is placed at 10450 followed by 10,440, If the index starts moving upward, key resistance levels to watch out are 10650 and then 10750.

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Resistance: 10575, 10675, 10775

Support: 10435, 10375, 10300