Market Consolidation Continues: Navigating the Uncertainty

 The stock market remained largely subdued on the weekly expiry day, with Nifty ending nearly unchanged at 22,912.90. The ongoing tug-of-war between key sectors—banking and IT—has kept market participants on edge, leading to a narrow trading range and a lack of clear direction.

Sectoral Performance: A Mixed Bag

While some sectors showed resilience, others underperformed. The metal, energy, and auto sectors emerged as the top gainers, offering some support to the market. However, banking and IT continued to struggle, creating an imbalance in the broader market sentiment. On the brighter side, mid and small-cap indices extended their winning streak, advancing nearly one and a half percent each, providing much-needed relief amid the lackluster performance of large-cap stocks.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Nifty’s price action on Thursday reflected a consolidation phase, with the index closing lower by 19 points. The market saw an initial dip followed by a mild recovery, but the latter half of the session remained largely range-bound. A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart near the recent lows, signaling a potential pause in the ongoing decline.

Currently, Nifty is hovering around the crucial support level of 22,700, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If the index manages to sustain above the immediate resistance at 23,100, it could indicate a short-term bottom reversal, potentially pushing the index to higher levels in the coming sessions.

Trading Strategy: Caution is Key

Given the lack of sustained momentum from banking and IT, traders should adopt a cautious stance. While broader market indices are showing signs of strength, a decisive move above 23,100 is needed for a clear bullish confirmation. Meanwhile, select pockets across various sectors—except FMCG—are witnessing notable traction, presenting opportunities for stock-specific trades.

Outlook for the Next Few Sessions

With Nifty consolidating near a crucial support zone, the possibility of an upside bounce remains on the table. However, market participants should closely monitor banking and IT sectors for potential trend signals. Until a definitive breakout occurs, it is advisable to focus on quality stock selection and avoid aggressive positions.

As we move into the next trading sessions, maintaining a disciplined approach and being adaptable to market conditions will be crucial. Stay tuned for further updates as the market structure evolves in the coming days.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 14 FEBRUARY 2025

 Indian benchmark indices ended flat on February 13, with Nifty closing above the 23,000 mark. At the close of trading, the Sensex declined by 32.11 points (0.04%) to settle at 76,138.97, while the Nifty dropped by 13.85 points (0.06%) to close at 23,031.40.

Market Overview

After demonstrating a sustainable upside bounce from the lower support of 22,800 levels on Wednesday, Nifty was unable to maintain its intraday gains on Thursday and ultimately closed lower by 13 points. The market opened on a positive note and surged in the early session; however, it failed to sustain above the resistance level of 23,200, resulting in a decline towards the session’s close.

A small red candle with a long upper shadow was formed on the daily chart, signaling weakness in the market’s upward momentum.

Technical Analysis

• The short-term trend of Nifty remains positive, but there is a lack of strength to overcome immediate hurdles.

• A decisive move above the 23,250 level is required to confirm a near-term bottom reversal pattern.

• Immediate support is positioned at 22,800 levels.

• Selling pressure on rebounds suggests that bears are still in control.

• Global uncertainties, including risks of potential tariff wars, are contributing to market caution.

• A stock-specific trading approach is recommended with a strong focus on risk management.

Market Movement

• Markets remained volatile on the weekly expiry day, leading to a flat closing amid mixed cues.

• The session started positively, but profit booking in select heavyweight stocks erased early gains.

• The Pharma, Metal, and Realty sectors outperformed, while IT and FMCG sectors lagged.

• Broader indices experienced choppy trade, with the small-cap index slipping nearly 0.4%.

Candlestick Pattern Analysis

• On the daily chart, the Nifty Index formed consecutive Doji candlestick patterns:

  • Long Legged Doji followed by Gravestone Doji, signaling market uncertainty.

  • These patterns indicate a battle between buyers and sellers, with key resistance at 23,200 and support at 22,800.

  • A decisive movement above or below these levels is required for a clear market direction.

Market Sentiment

• The initial optimism in the market, driven by easing domestic inflation data, was overshadowed by uncertain global cues and subdued corporate earnings.

• A surge in Chinese technology stocks, fueled by increased interest in artificial intelligence, diverted Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) towards more attractive returns.

• Market participants are monitoring the outcome of discussions between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi for potential trade and tariff concessions that could impact market trends.

Stock Performance

• Top Gainers: Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finance, Cipla, Bajaj Finserv.

• Top Losers: Adani Enterprises, Hero MotoCorp, Adani Ports, Infosys, ONGC.

Sectoral Performance

• Gainers: Media, Metal, Pharma, Realty (0.5%-1% increase).

• Losers: Auto, FMCG, IT, Consumer Durables, PSU Bank (0.3%-1% decline).

Market Breadth

• Advancing stocks: 1,781

• Declining stocks: 2,010

• Unchanged stocks: 127

Conclusion

Today's market witnessed an inverted V-shaped movement, with the Nifty testing the 23,200 resistance level before experiencing a sudden drop that erased early gains. The broader market showed a mixed trend, with midcaps holding steady while smallcaps declined.

Given the current volatility and persistent selling pressure on rebounds, investors are advised to focus on stock-specific trades and risk management strategies while awaiting clearer market direction.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 12 FEB 2025

 Market Overview: The downside momentum in the market continued for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Nifty closing the day with a steep decline of 309 points. Opening on a negative note, the market witnessed sustained selling pressure for the majority of the session. A sharp intraday weakness emerged during the mid-session, pushing Nifty to close near its intraday lows.

Technical Analysis: A significant long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, decisively breaking the crucial support level of 23,400 and closing lower. This pattern indicates a strong prevalence of downside momentum in the market. The bullish chart pattern, which had formed following the recent upside bounce, has now been negated, shifting the overall sentiment to sharply negative.

The larger degree bearish pattern of lower tops and bottoms is clearly visible on the daily chart. With the Nifty continuing its downward trajectory, it is now approaching a new lower bottom below the swing low of January at 22,786 levels.

Resistance and Support Levels:

• Immediate Support: 22,786

• Resistance on Upside Bounce: 23,200

Market Outlook: Considering the strong bearish momentum, any short-term upside bounce is expected to face strong resistance around 23,200 levels. If the downward pressure continues, Nifty might break below 22,786, leading to further weakness in the market.

Investors and traders are advised to exercise caution, closely monitor key levels, and follow a disciplined risk management approach in the current volatile market conditions.

Indian Equity Market Report – February 10, 2025

Market Summary:

On February 10, Indian equity indices ended on a negative note, with the Nifty closing below the crucial 23,400 mark. The Sensex fell by 548 points to settle at 77311, while the Nifty declined by 178 points (0.76%) to close at 23,381.

Market Performance Overview:
The stock market exhibited pessimism throughout the trading session as subdued corporate earnings, ongoing global tariff concerns, and currency depreciation weighed on investor sentiment. Foreign investors continued to withdraw funds in favor of safe haven US financial assets, leading to market weakness. Expensive valuations led to further declines in mid and small-cap stocks.

Key Highlights:

• Nifty closed lower for the fourth consecutive session.

• A long bearish candlestick formed on the daily chart, breaking below key support levels (23,400).

• Immediate support level: 23,220; a break below this could nullify the bullish higher-top-higher-bottom chart pattern.

• Immediate resistance level: 23,500.

• A further downside movement could push Nifty towards the 23,000 mark if it sustains below 23,350.

• RSI has entered a bearish crossover, indicating a further decline.

Sectoral & Stock Performance:

• All sectoral indices ended in the red, with the metal, media, pharma, consumer durables, energy, and realty sectors declining by 2-3%.

• Broader markets were hit hard, with Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices shedding 2% each.

• Top Losers: Trent, Power Grid Corp, Tata Steel, Titan Company, ONGC.

• Top Gainers: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Britannia Industries, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Tata Consumer Products.

Technical Analysis & Market Outlook:

• The decline continued as Nifty formed a lower top on the daily chart, weakening overall sentiment.

• The index broke its key support level of 23,500, pointing to a further move towards 23,240 as the next support level.

• Resistance has shifted lower to 23,465, indicating a downward trend in the short term.

• If Nifty sustains below 23,350, it may test the 23,000 level.

• Market sentiment remains cautious, with rising domestic yields and investor preference for safer assets like gold adding to the uncertainty.

Conclusion:
The Indian equity market continues to face downward pressure due to global tariff-related concerns, a weak demand environment, and cautious investor sentiment. A further breakdown below 23,220 could trigger additional selling pressure, while a reversal above 23,500 might bring some stability. Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor key support and resistance levels in the coming sessions.

Stock Performance Review: Our 8th Feb Picks in Action! 📉📈

STOCKS WE HAVE SUGGESTED ON 8 FEB ITSELF TO CHECK VISIT https://niftytipsniftylevels.blogspot.com/2025/02/stock-suggestion-for-10-feb-2025.html

Manappuram Finance Ltd DOWN BY 2%

NCC Ltd UP BY 2.5%

Bharat Electronics Ltd UP BY 2% (This stock Zee business analyst suggesting today, But we have predicted this on 8 feb itself)

we will be reviewing the performance of the stocks that we suggested on February 8th. We will be looking at the following stocks:

• Manappuram Finance Ltd
• NCC Ltd
• Bharat Electronics Ltd

Manappuram Finance Ltd

Manappuram Finance Ltd is a gold loan NBFC. The company's stock price has been on a decline in recent months. However, the company's fundamentals are still strong. The company has a strong balance sheet and a good track record of loan repayments.

• Performance: Down by 2%

NCC Ltd

NCC Ltd is a construction company. The company's stock price has been on a rise in recent months. The company has been winning new orders and its order book is healthy. The company is also expected to benefit from the government's infrastructure push.

• Performance: Up by 2.5%

Bharat Electronics Ltd

Bharat Electronics Ltd is a defense electronics company. The company's stock price has been on a rise in recent months. The company is expected to benefit from the government's increased defense spending. The company also has a strong order book.

• Performance: Up by 2%

Conclusion

Overall, the stocks that we suggested on February 8th have performed well. Two of the three stocks are up, while one is down.

We will continue to monitor the performance of these stocks and provide updates in future videos.

Please join us on whatsapp 9993026454 for more stock market updates.

 

Weekly Trading Report: February 10- February 14, 2025

 Market Overview:

Indian equity indices ended lower for the third consecutive session on February 7, with the Nifty closing below 23,600. The Sensex declined by 197.97 points (-0.25%) to 77,860.19, while the Nifty fell by 43.40 points (-0.18%) to 23,559.95. Market volatility persisted, reacting to the RBI’s monetary policy decision and broader economic concerns.

Key Highlights:

RBI cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% from 6.5%, in line with expectations.

The central bank projected India’s headline inflation for FY25 and FY26 at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively.

The US Dollar index softened due to disappointing US unemployment claims data.

Broader market indices traded mixed, with the Nifty Midcap index marginally up while the Smallcap index shed 0.3%.

Sectoral Performance:

Gainers:

Nifty Metal Index (+2.6%)

Consumer Durables (+1%)

Auto Index (+0.7%)

Losers:

PSU Bank (-1%)

FMCG (-1%)

Media (-1%)

Oil & Gas (-1%)

Stock Performance:

Top Gainers: Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Trent, JSW Steel, Hindalco.

Top Losers: ONGC, ITC, Britannia, SBI, Adani Ports.

Technical Analysis & Market Outlook:

Nifty maintained its short-term support at the 20 DEMA; sustaining above this level is key for a potential rebound.

 Short-term support: 23,450

Immediate resistance: 23,700

A decisive breakout above 23,700 could drive a rally towards 24,050.

The index remains volatile but retains a positive bias if it holds above 23,450.

Currency Market Outlook:

The Indian Rupee rallied following the RBI’s rate cut but remains under pressure due to weak domestic markets and dollar demand.

USD/INR expected to trade within Rs 87.20 - Rs 87.70.

Global uncertainty over US trade tariffs could weigh on the Rupee, but RBI intervention may provide support at lower levels.

Market Strategy for Next Week:

Stock-Specific Approach: With mixed earnings results and continued FII selling, investors should focus on select sectors showing strength, such as metals and auto.

Risk Management: Given the ongoing volatility, traders should maintain disciplined stop-loss levels and manage exposure carefully.

Macro Factors to Watch: US non-farm payroll data and global trade developments will be key factors influencing market sentiment.

 Conclusion:

The market’s direction next week will hinge on whether the Nifty sustains above 23,450. A breakout above 23,700 could trigger bullish momentum towards 24,050. Traders should remain cautious, considering global uncertainties and domestic market trends. Sectoral strength in metals and autos provides potential opportunities, while defensive plays in FMCG and oil & gas may remain under pressure.

STOCK SUGGESTION FOR 10 FEB 2025

 NCC

NAUKRI

RAMCOCEM

SBIN

NBCC

MRF

SOLARINDS

PIDILITIND

ITC

BEL

PAGEIND

GLENMARK

BAJFINANCE

KOTAKBANK

BATAINDIA

ASTRAL

GNFC

MANAPPURAM

Market Report: Indian Equity Indices Performance on February 6, 2025

 Overview: The Indian equity indices closed on a negative note on February 6, with the Nifty settling at 23,603.35 and the Sensex at 78,058.16. The markets witnessed intraday profit booking at higher levels, leading to a decline of 92.95 points (0.39%) in the Nifty and 213.12 points (0.27%) in the Sensex.

Market Performance: Despite a strong opening, the indices faced selling pressure at higher levels. The Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily chart near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling potential weakness. While the short-term market outlook remains positive, sustained trading below the 23,500/77,800 level could make the uptrend vulnerable.

Key Levels:

• Support Level: 23,520

• Resistance Level: 23,800

• If the market sustains above 23,500/77,800, it may witness a bounce-back towards 23,750-23,800/78,500-78,600.

• A break below 23,500 may trigger further downside momentum.

Sectoral Performance:

• Gainers: Pharma and IT sectors showed resilience, witnessing buying interest at lower levels.

• Losers: The real estate and capital market indices shed over 2%, with rate-sensitive sectors like banking, auto, and FMCG also experiencing selling pressure.

• Sectoral Decline: Auto, FMCG, Realty, and Consumer Durables fell between 1-2%, while Metal, PSU Bank, Energy, Media, and Oil & Gas declined by 0.4-0.8%.

Broader Market Performance:

• The Nifty Midcap index fell by 1.2%, indicating profit booking.

• The Smallcap index, however, remained relatively stable, mirroring the movement of Nifty50.

Top Gainers and Losers:

• Top Gainers: Cipla, Adani Ports, Infosys, Dr. Reddy's Labs, Tata Consumer.

• Top Losers: Trent, Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Titan Company, NTPC.

Market Sentiment & Key Takeaways:

• Investors booked profits in rate-sensitive sectors ahead of the monetary policy announcement.

• The 50DMA acted as a strong resistance level, limiting further gains.

• If the RBI announces a surprise rate cut, it may boost short-term optimism in the market.

• A break above 23,800 is necessary to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

Conclusion: The market remains in a consolidation phase, with crucial support at 23,520. The upcoming monetary policy decision is expected to play a significant role in determining the market’s near-term direction. Investors should keep a close watch on key levels and sectoral movements for further cues.

Indian Equity Market Report & Trading Tips For – February 6, 2025

 Market Overview: Indian equity indices ended on a negative note on February 5, with the Nifty slipping below the 23,700 mark. The Sensex declined by 312.53 points (0.40%) to close at 78,271.28, while the Nifty ended 42.95 points (0.18%) lower at 23,696.30. Despite an initial uptick, markets remained range-bound throughout the session before settling slightly lower.

Sectoral Performance:

• Gainers: The metals and energy sectors registered decent gains, contributing positively to the market.

• Losers: Realty and FMCG sectors were under pressure, with the Realty index shedding over 2%.

• Broader Market Performance: The mid and small-cap indices outperformed, posting gains ranging from 0.7% to 1.85%. The Capital Market index was the top gainer, rallying over 4%.

  Indian Equity Market Report – February 5, 2025

Technical Analysis:

• The Nifty index faced resistance around the 23,800 level, where a Falling Wedge pattern and the 50DMA acted as key levels.

• Support is placed at 23,500, with additional key levels at 23,600/78,000 and 23,500/77,700.

• Resistance zones are identified at 23,800-23,900/78,700-78,900.

• The formation of a small bearish candle on daily charts suggests a continuation of non-directional momentum.

Market Outlook:

• Short-Term Trend: The market remains in a consolidation phase after its recent surge. However, as long as Nifty remains above 23,400, the broader trend remains positive.

• Upside Potential: If the index breaks above the 23,800 resistance, it could move towards the 24,050 level in the near term.

• Investor Strategy: Traders are advised to adopt a levels-based approach for intraday trading. The market is still a “buy on dips” scenario, with stock selection playing a crucial role.

• Key Risks: Global uncertainties, rupee depreciation, and ongoing tariff concerns could impact market sentiment despite domestic economic optimism.

Conclusion: The Indian equity market witnessed a narrow-range trading session with mixed sectoral performance. Broader indices showed resilience, while large-cap stocks benefited from valuation moderation. Going forward, traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, while investors may consider accumulating fundamentally strong stocks during dips. The overall market outlook remains cautiously bullish, with a potential for upward movement if resistance levels are breached.

Indian Equity Market Report & Outlook - February 5, 2025

 Market Overview: On February 4, the Indian equity indices closed on a strong note, with the Nifty closing above 23,700. The Sensex surged by 1,397.07 points, or 1.81%, to end at 78,583.81, while the Nifty gained 378.20 points, or 1.62%, to close at 23,739.25. The market witnessed a sharp bounce back, driven by a positive global sentiment and renewed buying in heavyweight stocks.

Sectoral Performance: Almost all major sectoral indices ended in positive territory. The Oil & Gas and PSU Banks indices outperformed, gaining over 2%. The banking and financial sectors played a crucial role in sustaining the rally. Meanwhile, broader indices also saw solid traction, with Mid and Smallcap indices rising by 1.56% and 1.09%, respectively.

Technical Analysis:

• The Nifty successfully cleared the critical resistance zone of 23,500/77,800 post a gap-up opening, leading to intensified bullish momentum.

• A bullish candle formed on the daily charts, coupled with an uptrend continuation pattern on the intraday charts, indicating further upward movement.

• Key support zones are at 23,600/78,100 and 23,500/77,800, while resistance levels are expected at 23,800/78,700–23,850/78,900.

• The Nifty is moving in a falling wedge pattern retest, indicating potential for a continued rally in the short term.

• RSI indicates a bullish crossover with strong momentum, suggesting further gains.

• The index is expected to move toward the 24,050 level, with key support at 23,500 and 23,250.

Market Sentiment and Trends:

• The market extended its recovery, climbing nearly 1.5%, driven by a rebound in global markets and positive domestic cues.

• The rally was broad-based, with all major sectors except FMCG ending in the green.

• Banking stocks rallied in anticipation of an RBI rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting.

• The index has decisively broken above the 200 DEMA (23,620), strengthening the bullish sentiment.

• The banking index must decisively move past the 50,200 level to sustain upward momentum.

Outlook & Strategy:

• The current market texture remains bullish, favoring a "buy on dips and sell on rallies" approach for traders.

• Selective stock picking with an emphasis on large-cap and large mid-cap stocks is recommended.

• If Nifty sustains above 23,620, it could target the 23,900–24,200 range in the short term.

• Traders should closely monitor global trends and domestic cues for further market direction.

Conclusion: The Indian stock market ended on a strong note, with bullish momentum likely to continue. With key support levels holding firm and technical indicators signaling further upside, the market could test new highs in the near term. However, traders should remain cautious around key resistance zones while maintaining a strategic approach toward stock selection.

Indian Equity Market Report Trading Suggestion For 4 Feb 2025

 Market Summary: On February 3, Indian equity markets closed on a negative note with the benchmark indices facing losses amid high volatility. The Sensex declined by 319.22 points or 0.41% to settle at 77,186.74, while the Nifty dropped 121.10 points or 0.52% to close at 23,361.05. Market sentiment remained fragile, influenced by weak global cues and sector-specific pressures.

Market Performance Overview:

• Nifty opened with a gap down and showed consolidation before ending lower.

• Sensex fell by 319.22 points, closing at 77,186.

• Nifty declined by 121.10 points, closing at 23,361.

• The index remained volatile but managed to stay above the critical 21-day EMA.

• Support is placed at 23,200/23,100, while resistance is at 23,400.

• Nifty retraced its recent gains and found a support zone at 23,250 – 23,209, aligning with the 20-day SMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

• The immediate resistance level stands at 23,560 – 23,630.

• A decisive breakout above 23,500 – 23,600 could open more upside potential.

Technical Indicators & Market Trends:

• A small green candle with a long lower shadow appeared on the daily chart, indicating a range-bound market with weak downside momentum.

• The formation of a higher bottom suggests a potential uptrend continuation.

• If the market holds its support level at 23,200, it could resume an upward movement towards 23,820 – 24,000.

• In the near term, the uptrend remains intact, with the possibility of a rebound from higher lows.

• The market is currently volatile and non-directional, making level-based trading a preferred strategy.

• For day traders, key support levels are 23,270/77,000 and 23,220/76,800, while resistance is at 23,500/77,500 and 23,550/77,800.

• A breach of 23,220/76,800 could lead to a retest of 23,100/76,500 levels.

Sectoral Performance:

• Defence Sector: The worst performer, shedding over 5%.

• Consumer Durables: The only major gainer, up by 0.5%.

• IT Sector: Rose by 0.7%, showing resilience.

• Capital Goods: Down 4%, among the biggest losers.

• Energy, Metal, Oil & Gas, Power, PSU: Fell between 2-3%.

• Metal Sector: Dropped by more than 1.5%, making it one of the weakest performers.

• Midcaps & Smallcaps: Midcaps showed recovery, but smallcaps ended at their lowest levels of the day.

Top Gainers & Losers:

• Gainers: Bajaj Finance, M&M, Wipro, Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finserv.

• Losers: L&T, ONGC, Bharat Electronics, Tata Consumers, Coal India.

Market Outlook: The Indian stock market faced selling pressure due to weak global sentiment, including concerns over tariff-related trade wars. The broader market indices exhibited disparity, with midcaps showing resilience while smallcaps underperformed.

The market found support at the 21-day DMA (23,280), signaling potential for a recovery. If this support holds, Nifty could aim for 23,550 in the coming sessions. However, a fall below 23,200 could trigger further downside towards 23,100.

Given the current scenario, traders and investors should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on key support and resistance levels while monitoring global market cues for further direction.

Union Budget 2025-26: Impact on Indian Stock Market

 Introduction

The presentation of the Union Budget 2025-26 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has led to significant fluctuations in the Indian stock market. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), National Stock Exchange (NSE), and Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) conducted a special trading session on Saturday, 1 February 2025, to accommodate the market response to the budget announcements. Traders and investors are closely monitoring various sectors, including insurance, FMCG, power, infrastructure, and banking, to gauge the impact of budgetary policies on the financial markets.

Stock Market Performance on Budget Day

The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, witnessed heightened volatility and traded lower following the budget speech. Historically, the Nifty 50 has shown intraday fluctuations within a 2-3% range on Budget Day, presenting both opportunities and risks for market participants. This year was no exception, with investors reacting to announcements related to fiscal deficit, taxation, capital expenditure, and economic growth projections.

Impact on Debt Markets

The budget’s fiscal management has been seen as a positive development for debt markets. The fiscal deficit for FY25 was recorded at 4.8%, improving from the targeted 4.9%, while the forecast for FY26 stands at 4.4%. The central government's commitment to fiscal discipline has positioned India as a strong emerging economic power post-COVID. The expected 15-basis point reduction in the 10-year government security yield further supports this outlook, making debt instruments more attractive for investors.

Key Takeaways from the Budget

Economic Growth and Fiscal Prudence: The budget continues to emphasize economic growth through strategic capital expenditure while maintaining fiscal prudence. Despite a projected growth rate of 6.8% for FY26, the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts strengthen investor confidence.

Taxation Benefits: The reduction in tax burden increases disposable income for the middle class, potentially boosting consumption and investment in equity markets.

Sectoral Impact: The budget highlights support for key sectors such as infrastructure, MSMEs, start-ups, and employment generation programs. This is expected to drive economic expansion and wealth creation.

Market Participation and Capital Formation: The increase in disposable income is likely to encourage more retail investors to participate in the stock market. Currently, India has approximately 11 crore unique investors, and this number is expected to grow, reinforcing the cycle of capital formation and economic growth.

Conclusion

The Union Budget 2025-26 builds on India’s growth trajectory by balancing fiscal prudence with developmental policies. While the stock market experienced volatility, the long-term outlook remains positive, with increased consumption, capital formation, and job creation expected to drive sustained economic expansion. Investors will continue to assess market trends and sectoral developments to align their portfolios with the evolving financial landscape.

Stock Market Outlook For Budget 1 Feb 2025

Market Performance Overview

The Indian benchmark indices ended higher for the fourth consecutive session on January 31, with the Nifty closing above the 23,500 mark amid broad-based buying ahead of the Union Budget.

• Sensex: Up 740.76 points (0.97%) at 77,500.57

• Nifty: Up 258.90 points (1.11%) at 23,508.40

• Advance-Decline Ratio: 2635 shares advanced, 1131 shares declined, and 120 shares remained unchanged.

Technical Analysis

The Nifty has given a falling wedge breakout, indicating a short-term bullish reversal. Additionally, the index has moved above the 21-period EMA, reinforcing the positive momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports a strong upward move in the market.

• Support Levels: 23,300 – 23,200

• Resistance Levels: 23,600 – 23,800

With the Union Budget announcement tomorrow, high volatility is expected. The undertone remains positive, with the downside protected at 23,400, while 23,740-23,860 is considered a strong resistance zone.

Key Market Drivers

• Economic Survey Highlights: Expectations of a pro-growth budget and prudent fiscal policy fueled optimism.

• Global Cues: Positive international markets and better-than-expected corporate results contributed to the bullish trend.

• Government Measures: Market expects tax reductions and job generation policies to boost consumption.

• Infrastructure Spending: A balanced approach to reducing fiscal deficit while continuing infrastructure investments could drive market sentiment further.

Sectoral Performance

Gainers:

• Capital Goods: +3.5%

• Auto: +3.0%

• Realty: +6.2%

• FMCG: +0.7%

• Power: +1.0%

Losers:

• IT: -1.9%

• Consumer Durables: -0.9%

• Metal: -0.5%

• Telecom: -2.5%

• Pharma: -2.3%

Top Nifty Gainers:

• Bharat Electronics (+8.2%)

• Hero MotoCorp (+7.9%)

• M&M (+7.4%)

• Tata Consumer

• Trent

• Nestle India

• L&T

Top Nifty Losers:

• HCL Tech (-3.9%)

• Sun Pharma (-3.8%)

• Tata Motors (-3.5%)

• Bharti Airtel

• ICICI Bank

• Bajaj Finserv

• Apollo Hospitals

• JSW Steel

Broader Market Performance

• Mid-cap Index: +0.3% (weekly gain)

• Small-cap Index: -0.7% (weekly loss)

• BSE Midcap & Smallcap: Gained nearly 2% each on January 31

Foreign and Domestic Institutional Activity

• Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs): Net sellers over the past five days.

• Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Net buyers in the same period.

Global Market Update

• United States: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, highlighting inflation concerns.

• Europe: ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps, softening US bond yields.

• Germany: GDP declined by 0.2% in Q4 due to industrial sector weakness.

• China: Investors monitored AI firm DeepSeek after market disruptions.

• Trade Policies: Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, with uncertainty over oil imports.

Market Outlook

Equity markets received a boost following ECB's interest rate cut and strong global cues. Traders remain focused on the upcoming Union Budget, with expectations for economic stimulus measures, tax relief, and infrastructure spending.

With a strong bullish candle, the Index has confirmed its Falling Wedge Formation breakout, but volatility is expected due to the Union Budget announcement.

• Short-term Outlook: Positive bias with support at 23,400 and resistance at 23,740-23,860.

• Long-term Outlook: Dependent on budgetary measures, corporate earnings, and global economic trends.

Conclusion The last trading day of January witnessed significant gains across indices, fueled by optimism surrounding the Budget and strong global market trends. While the undertone remains bullish, market volatility is expected in the coming sessions as investors react to the fiscal policies outlined by the government.

Indian Stock Market to Remain Open on February 1, 2025, for Budget Day

As the Union Budget 2025 approaches, some investors may wonder whether the Indian stock market will be open on February 1, 2025, since it falls on a Saturday. Despite the weekend, both the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have confirmed that trading will take place as usual on this special occasion.

Stock Market Timings on Budget Day 2025

Trading on both BSE and NSE will commence at the regular time of 9:15 AM and continue until 3:30 PM on Saturday, February 1, 2025.

MCX Trading on Budget Day

The Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) will also conduct a special live trading session to facilitate real-time risk management and hedging during the Budget announcement. Trading on MCX will be open from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM.

Although the Indian stock market generally remains closed on weekends, special trading sessions are held on significant occasions, such as the Union Budget presentation.

When is the Right Time to Enter the Indian Stock Market ?

Introduction

The recent market correction has raised concerns among investors about the right time to enter the stock market. However, analysis from global financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and BlackRock indicates that the current downturn presents a valuable opportunity for long-term investors. While short-term volatility persists due to macroeconomic factors, the fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong, making this an opportune moment to enter the market.

Market Sentiment and Institutional Insights

Morgan Stanley's proprietary sentiment indicator has entered the "buy" zone for the first time since mid-2022. This suggests that investor sentiment has bottomed out, and fundamentals do not warrant a major deterioration from here. Additionally, global investment firms such as BlackRock have turned bullish on India’s large-cap stocks, citing attractive valuations and long-term growth potential.

Key takeaways from institutional analysis:

• The recent correction is a buying opportunity: The ongoing market fall has been on low trading volumes, implying an absence of aggressive selling pressure.

• Retail investor resilience: Despite market turbulence, domestic retail investors have remained invested, reducing the risk of a sudden market crash.

• Government support: Increased government expenditure, potential RBI liquidity support, and regulatory easing will likely aid market recovery.

Macroeconomic Factors and Their Impact

Several macroeconomic factors have contributed to the current downturn, but they also provide opportunities for long-term investors:

1. Global Bond Yield Differentials

• The 10-year US bond yield is at 4.6%, while the Indian 10-year bond yield is 6.7%.

• The interest rate differential, along with INR depreciation, has led to temporary outflows by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). However, this situation is expected to stabilize as global economic conditions normalize.

2. Sectoral Outlook and Opportunities

• Private Financials: Morgan Stanley highlights that private financial institutions currently offer the best risk-reward ratio.

• Technology Stocks: The AI revolution and low-cost AI models like DeepSeek present opportunities for Indian IT giants such as Infosys, TCS, and HCL Tech.

• Consumption and Real Estate: BlackRock suggests that consumption-driven sectors and real estate will perform well in the near term.

Investment Strategy: How to Navigate the Market

Given the current market scenario, a strategic approach to investing is essential. Here’s how investors can position themselves:

1. Avoid Lump-Sum Investments

• The market could still see further downside (another 10-15% correction is possible).

• Investors should avoid going all-in at current levels and instead focus on phased investments.

2. Continue SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans)

• SIPs in mutual funds should not be stopped despite market corrections.

• With a 15+ year investment horizon, continuing SIPs ensures lower average costs and better long-term returns.

3. Selective Stock Picking

• Invest in stocks with strong growth potential and reasonable valuations.

• Quality large and mid-cap stocks have already fallen 30% or more from their 52-week highs, making them attractive for long-term investors.

4. Focus on Diversification

• Investing in diversified ETFs and mutual funds can mitigate risks.

• Allocating funds across sectors such as technology, financials, and manufacturing will ensure balanced exposure.

Conclusion: The Best Time to Enter is Now

Historical data suggests that market downturns provide some of the best opportunities for long-term investors. Despite short-term challenges, India’s economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by government policies, resilient retail participation, and emerging sectoral opportunities. By adopting a disciplined and strategic investment approach, investors can benefit from the current market conditions and achieve substantial long-term growth.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 31 JAN 2025

Market Overview:

Indian equity indices ended on a strong note, with the Nifty closing around 23,250 on January 30. The Sensex gained 226.85 points or 0.30 percent to close at 76,759.81, while the Nifty rose 86.40 points or 0.37 percent to settle at 23,249.50. The market exhibited high volatility on the monthly expiry day but managed to extend its winning streak for the third consecutive session.

After an initial surge, profit-taking in the mid-session led to fluctuations, before a late rebound helped the index close with decent gains. Sectoral performance was mixed, with realty, energy, and pharma sectors outperforming, while IT, media, and auto sectors lagged. The broader indices pared early gains and ended flat.

Market Technical Analysis:

Nifty is facing resistance around the 20-day EMA at 23,300, and a decisive close above this level is crucial for further recovery.

If Nifty fails to close above 23,300, renewed pressure may push the index toward the 23,000–22,700 zone.

On the hourly charts, the momentum indicator has triggered a negative crossover, signaling a potential sell-off.

Key support levels: 23,120 – 23,055

Key resistance levels: 23,320 – 23,350

The Index has broken out of its Falling Wedge formation, indicating a shift towards a positive momentum, though further confirmation is required.

Sectoral Performance:

Top Gainers: Realty, Energy, Pharma, PSU, FMCG, Oil & Gas, and Power sectors rose between 0.5-1 percent.

Top Laggards: IT, Media, Auto, and Consumer Durables sectors declined by 0.4-2 percent.

Stock Performance:

Major Gainers: Bharat Electronics, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Power Grid Corp.

Major Losers: Tata Motors, Shriram Finance, Adani Enterprises, Bajaj Finserv, Adani Ports.

Market Trends and Outlook:

The market concluded on a positive note despite fluctuating between gains and losses throughout the session.

The fall in oil prices due to a rise in US inventories and easing of US 10-year yields after the US Fed’s hawkish stance may decelerate FII outflows.

The upcoming budget is being viewed as a potential inflection point, which could reverse the prevailing bearish trend if the policies restore growth and consumption.

The long-term outlook remains intact, with investors focusing on stocks and sectors exhibiting strong operational metrics and favorable valuations.

Conclusion:

The market exhibited resilience despite volatility on the expiry day. While the Nifty continues to face resistance at the 20-day EMA level, a breakout above 23,300 could fuel further gains. However, caution is advised as consolidation is expected ahead of the upcoming budget. Traders are recommended to focus on selective stock-picking and robust risk management strategies in the short term.

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