BOUNCE BACK EXPECTED ; SOON NIFTY 8000

In the July series there was a tough fight witnessed between the bulls and bears. Bulls was trying to take nifty to the level of 7900-8000, but was be unsuccessful  & bears pulled nifty to the level of 7720-7610 level. Nifty faced so many ups & down throughout the July series. Nifty July future begins with the level of 7600, Traders & investors was expecting that nifty will touch 7900-8000 level; Most of the expectations are running a little ahead of what the government can actually do in the mid-year. Apart from the expectations the nifty was just oscillating around 7600-7850 levels. The hurdles for nifty were 7672-7805, these levels were mostly faced by nifty July future. Traders were expecting that after budget sessions market will get a strong & positive direction, but still the movement of the market is not strong.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 25-JULY-2014

After moving in a narrow range for most part of the trading session, the Sensex picked up momentum in the last one hour of trade and rallied as much as 146 points to hit its fresh record high of 26,292 in trade on Thursday. The Sensex finally closed 137 points higher at 26,271 It hit a low of 26,077 and a lifetime high of 26,292 in trade today. The Sensex has already rallied over 24 % so far in the year 2014 and has become the top performing index in the world on a year-to-date basis. Nifty future also managed to hit fresh lifetime high of 7,835. Nifty Future started at 7788 made a high of 7839 and low of 7762 and closed at 7832, total 77 points was moved by nifty future. 

NIFTY FUTURE PREDICTION FOR TOMORROW 23-JULY-2014

"Buy Nifty 7700 Call @ 95 Tgt 125/135 Sl 62"

"Sell IDFC Future Below 161 Tgt 159.20/157.60 Sl 162.90"

The Sensex rallied over 300 points in trade on Tuesday to end above its crucial psychological resistance level of 26,000. The Sensex has rallied 3% in over six days to become world's top performing index. Tracking the momentum in nifty future, the Nifty index also managed to reclaim its crucial psychological level of 7750, supported by gains in realty, power, oil & gas and realty stocks. Today nifty future started at 7715 made a high of 7773 and low of 7706 and closed 7770, total 67 points was played by nifty future. 

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK WAS & THE WEEK AHEAD

In this whole week bullish rally was witnessed there in the market. The market gained in four out of five trading sessions in the week just gone by. The rally has been fierce with foreign institutional investors infusing nearly $23 billion in the Indian markets so far in 2014, mainly betting on the reform agenda by the new government. 

• The market registered small losses after moving in a narrow range during the trading session on Monday, 14 July. The Sensex shed 17 points to settle at 25,006.
• The market snapped five-day losing streak on Tuesday, Sensex garnered 221 points to settle at 25,228 on Tuesday.
• On Wednesday 16 July a decent growth in India's merchandise exports in June 2014 triggered a rally on the domestic bourses . The Sensex garnered 321 points to settle at 25,549 on Wednesday.
• The market eked out small gains after moving in a narrow range in intraday trade on Thursday, 17 July. The Sensex garnered 11 points to settle at 25,561 on Thursday.
• The market edged higher in choppy session of trade on Friday, 18 July. The Sensex was up 80 points.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 18-JULY-2014

Today Sensex pared most of its early morning gains and was trading flat in afternoon trade on Thursday, Tracking the momentum in the Nifty index, also came off from its intraday highs, but was still trading above its crucial psychological support level of 7600.Today nifty future started at 7642 made a high of 7674 and low of 7628 and closed at 7660, total 46 points was moved by nifty future. The nifty future after an initial phase of volatility in yesterday’s session did show a short term reversal signal in the end by moving up nearly 1%. However, being a counter-directional rally it faces a major test today in that it needs to cross the most difficult supply zone between 7620 and 7670 within which the range from 7640 through 7680 would act like an acid test zone for the bulls. We can only trust this rally to bring in more gains if these levels are crossed and the index stays above the critical zone aided by a lot of volume activity. If the Nifty future crosses 7680 successfully then the next target would be 7700 – 7800. We continue to hold our view to create longs at 7400-7450 levels in spot with a Stop loss of 7290 in spot (Closing Basis) for targets of 7900-8000 by mid-August.

NIFTY FUTURE TECHNICAL REPORT & CHART FOR JULY-AUGUST,2014

While analyzing the Daily Charts of “Nifty” We found that the Nifty looks oversold and based on few Technical observations, we believe it is apt for bounce back. We had said at 7620 levels, Nifty Spot could drift to 7400-7450 levels amidst budget volatility; however that volatility could be used to cherry pick stocks in the overall equity portfolio. Nifty Spot had

 made a low of 7422 on 14^th July 2014. We continue to hold our view to create longs at 7400-7450 levels in spot with a Stop loss of 7290 in spot (Closing Basis) for targets of 7900-8000 by mid-August

• The 50 Day “Simple moving average” is placed at 7400-7410 levels
• The Lower Band of the “’Bollinger Band” is placed at 7400-7410 levels
• The rising trend line connecting the lows of February 2014 and May 2014 is placed at 7320 levels; however the trend line support could rise to above 7400 levels by next week
•  The RSI is at crucial 40-45 levels and 40-45 levels is usually considered to be the lower band of the RSI in the Bull Market.
•  The RSI and Price Action is in Sync. Usually RSI and Nifty makes bottom within a week. We have seen in the past RSI and Price both bouncing back from the trend line together. The Technical Set-up is positive.

To Sum it up, the fall seen in the last week, throws open before us a golden opportunity to create fresh longs with above mentioned stop loss and Targets. While there may be a lot of Noise in the market about Nifty going to 6900-7100 levels because of Negative Feedback loop, Technical Analysis Suggests otherwise

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY 15-JULY-2014

See-saw movement was there in the market today. After a flat opening the market dropped down in the afternoon session. The sensex & nifty both hits lowest level almost in a month. The sensex is hovering around the level of 25000, while nifty is oscillating around the 7450-7475 level. Market was alternatively moving to the negative & positive zone. At the time of closing the sensex was marginally above at the level 25,006 led by losses in Infosys, HUL, HDFC, ICICI Bank and Wipro, while nifty closed at 7454. The Nifty future started at 7488 made a high of 7505 and low of 7445 and closed at 7482 total 60 points was played by nifty future. . Volatility is expected between 7376 and 7357 on the downside and 7470 and 7520 on the upside, over the next few days.

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 14 JULY, 2014

Today starting of market was positive but it slumped down after the announcement of the Infosys results. Sensex closed at 25,024; down 348 points & Nifty ended the trade at 7,459 down 108 points. The sensex  is provisionally closed above the psychological 25,000 mark after slipping below that mark for a brief period. The Sensex and Nifty, both, hit 2-1/2-week low. . Today nifty future started at 7565 made a high of 7638 and low of 7466 and closed at 7484 total 172 points was moved by nifty future. The Nifty has broken the rising wedge pattern and has also retraced 78.6 per cent of the same. Now, once it breaks 7,479 it will confirm its next five-wave decline which has an equality target of 7,400. The negative divergence in the momentum indicator clearly indicates that bears have the upper hand.

UPDATES : NIFTY TRADING STRATEGY FOR BUDGET 2014

We had Said in Report the possibility of Nifty going to 7450 levels in Spot and bouncing back. We had said in case Nifty sport levels goes to these levels we can create longs for 7950-8000 levels by MID August. We stand by our view. Nifty made a low of 7479 (Very close to 7450) and bounced back. The quality of bounce back is very convincing and 8000 levels by MID August is highly possible.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING STRATEGY FOR BUDGET,2014

From mid of the June market witnessing higher volatility due to pre-budget rally.Nifty moving around the levels of 7580-7800 levels since last few days.where 7623 is the most crucial level for the nifty. Overall Nifty is in Uptrend. Charts structurally Still Positive after yesterday's fall. However on account of overhead Budget, a fall or panic Dip up to 7450-7400 could not be ruled out.

Out of Nifty heavyweights:-

• Reliance has already corrected 150 points or 13-15% from its recent high of 1145.
• ICICI is also oversold.
• ITC and Infosys are not looking bad at least; in fact Infosys is looking good.
• HDFC Bank and HDFC are market performers and could not fall more than 5%.
• In Such a scenario worst Nifty can fall is 3-4% from current levels of 7623.
  
  The trading strategies should be to create longs at 7450 in spot with a Sl of 7290 for Targets of 7900 by mid august.

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY 09-JULY-2014

"Sell RCom Below 135.50 Tgt 132/128.80 Sl 138"

"Buy IDFC Future Above 138 Tgt 141/142.90 Sl 136"

Very volatile market was today. After opening on a firm note the market was slipped into the red in the mid sessions .Both the sensex and the nifty hits more the one week low. The Sensex slipped over 600 points in trade today .The Nifty also witnessed some bit of profit booking at higher levels. The index breached its crucial psychological level of 7600 after hitting its fresh lifetime high of 7808 earlier in the day. The sudden downfall in market was witnessed due to the Shares of most of the railway-related companies slipped 3-13 % in trade on Tuesday, as the Rail Budget failed to live up to market expectations and investors preferred to book profits after a sharp rally seen in most of these stocks so far in the year 2014. Today nifty future started at 7810 made a high of 7817 and low of 7620 and closed at 7630, total 197 points was moved by nifty future. For tomorrow some recovery can be happen in the market, If tomorrow nifty will successfully crossed it’s most crucial level of 7680 then it will come back to it’s comfortable zone of 7765-7795 and if this levels are achieved by nifty then 7850 will most desirable resistance level for nifty future, at the other side if any down trade was witnessed in the market the 7600-7550 will be proved as very good supporting levels of nifty future.

The Five Biggest Stock Market Myths

  Investing in Stocks Is Just Like Gambling.

      This reasoning causes many people to shy away from the stock market. To understand why investing in stocks is inherently different from gambling, we need to review what it means to buy stocks. A share of common stock is ownership in a company. It entitles the holder to a claim on assets as well as a fraction of the profits that the company generates. Too often, investors think of shares as simply a trading vehicle, and they forget that stock represents the ownership of a company.
In the stock market, investors are constantly trying to assess the profit that will be left over for shareholders. This is why stock prices fluctuate. The outlook for business conditions is always changing, and so are the future earnings of a company.
Assessing the value of a company isn't an easy practice. There are so many variables involved that the short-term price movements appear to be random (academics call this the Random Walk Theory); however, over the long term, a company is supposed to worth the value of the profits it will make. In the short term, a company can survive without profits because of the expectations of future earnings, but no company can fool investors forever - eventually a company's stock price can be expected to show the true value of the firm.
Gambling, on the contrary, is a zero-sum game. It merely takes money from a loser and gives it to a winner. No value is ever created. By investing, we increase the overall wealth of an economy. As companies compete, they increase productivity and develop products that can make our lives better. Don't confuse investing and creating wealth with gambling's zero-sum game.

NIFTY FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 4 JULY,2014

The index has gathered quite a bit of momentum after a cool 90 point gain. Today nifty future started on high note but it closed in the negative terrain for the first time after four days of up move as profit booking picked up in banks, metals and realty stocks. Today nifty future begins at the level of 7761 made a high of 7773 and low of 7726 and closed at 7739, total 47 points was played by nifty future. Market expecting that the finance minster will announce measures in the Budget aimed at bolstering economic growth is driving stock prices higher ahead of the key event on 10 July 2014,and due to this investor are expecting bullishness in the market till the budget announcement. Today the Nifty has closed at the doorstep of a significant resistance zone between 7729 and 7745. For tomorrow, on Friday this range, by the way, will going to be most critical zone for the day for staying above this zone on a sustainable basis would signal continuation of the new round of bullish gumption. Incidentally, it also posted a fresh all-time high. If bulls will successfully touch the 7770 or will stay strongly on this level then there will be higher possibilities of the levels 7800-7870, the bullishness is most likely going to stay unless of course, The bears won't take the index to closes below important support area located between the levels of 7660 and 7630.

WATCHING THE MARKET CLOSELY

Stock market is very unpredictable and if you are someone who is willing to take some risk then you can go for it. But there are some important points to remember so as to keep yourself risk free from the situation. You have to know the proper timing when and where to invest in the market. If you feel that you do not have the right knowledge of the market then you should never go for investing your money in the market. It is also very important for you to keep updates of all the different stocks that are present in the market. You have to know the benefits that you would get by watching the market closely. It all depends on how you are able to take your decision to invest in the right stocks. You have to make sure that the stocks that you are willing to invest your money would give you the best profit. In this case you should know about the sensex, stock tables, charts…etc. When you find that the performances of a particular stock is showing good profits, then you can invest in that stock. But you can never guarantee that the stocks which are showing good profits would also remain the same in the future. This is why you have to think twice before investing in the market. You cannot by any means lose all your money in the market by simply investing without any proper research. So try to give your best efforts in getting the best stock for you.

NIFTY FUTURE PREDICTION FOR WEDNESDAY 02-JULY-2014

Range bound movement was witnessed in market today. The Sensex ended a range bound session over 100 points up led by gains in auto, metals and capital goods sectors. The sensex ended at 25,516. It touched intraday high of 25,571 and a low of 25,466 in trade today. The Nifty closed at 7,638. It touched intraday high of 7,649 and a low of 7,618 in trade today. While the Nifty future started at 7646 made a high of 7678 and low of 7637 and closed at 7668, total 41 points was moved by nifty future. Yes, it was a decisive day yesterday with the Nifty posting a breakout above the 7600level. Now, it remains to be seen how it negotiates with the supply zone between 7635 and 7670 and move further up. Once the above supply zone is cleared with real strength then even the level of 7700, the earlier high, would not matter so much for the index or its bulls. Indications are very clear that unless the Nifty falls below 7560 through 7540 support area, the bulls would use all intraday dips as

buying opportunities. Above the 7700 level, the next levels to watch out for would be 7720 through 7750 resistance zone. As of now, only a close below 7460 would tilt the scales again.

NIFTY FUTURE PREDICTION FOR TOMORROW 1-JULY-2014

The market kick started the week with a strong rally. The Nifty managed to reclaim 7600, up 102 to end at 7611 while the Sensex was up 313 points at 25413. The Sensex rallied as much as 305 points in trade today, despite muted trend seen in other Asian markets .Tracking the momentum, the Nifty index was trading near its crucial psychological level of 7600, supported by gains in banks, capital goods, and power and realty stocks. Today Nifty future started at 7556 made a high of 7649 and low of 7555 and closed at 7623, total 93 points was moved by nifty future. For tomorrow nifty future will move in a range of 7650-7680 nifty will try to touch the level of 7695 and at the other side 7594 will be proved as very good supporting level for nifty future. Stock market will most likely see bullish trends this week in the run up to Union Budget as investors pin hopes on strong reform measures to rev up the economy. The pre-Budget rally begins from this week.

BASICS OF INTRADAY TRADING

when someone buys & sells a financial instrument or vice versa on a same day it is termed as intraday trading. Many people around the world do intraday trading to earn quick money. This is not a real investment rather it is just moving your money in stocks or futures to gain profit out of market fluctuations. An experienced day trader can predict the price movement of the instrument by either reading technical charts or by acting on news about. But not every day trader is an experienced technical chart reader or knows exact inside news beforetime. Thus they should take help of advisers to be their guide for profitable trades.

Some Tips for Intraday Trading:-

Intraday traders must use following strategies and intraday tips to minimize losses & maximize profits.

v  Decide your trading amount for every trade, it should always remain constant. Never change your trading amount for every trade. Go by the amount of trading and not by the quantity. Quantity should be decided by amount of investment.

v  Never invest more than 3-4% of your total portfolio amount in a single trade.

v  Always use stop-loss while doing intraday trading.

v  Take a loss wherever necessary. This helps you protect your money for further losses remember we said use stop loss.

NIFTY FUTURE PREDICTION FOR MONDAY 30 JUNE-2014

This whole week market index were marginally lower. in the week ended Friday the Sensex edged lower in three out of five trading sessions in the week just gone by. On Friday morning the Asian markets are down a tad lower while the July Nifty future is up only marginally albeit on low volume. Nifty future started at 7550 made a high of 7569 and low of 7512 and closed at 7545, total 57 points was moved by nifty future. Nifty future needs to reclaim the level of 7550 and stay above that to show some sign of a return of strength. So long it remains below that level, fresh buying is unlikely to emerge in any big way. On the

NIFTY TECHNICAL CHECK UP

After being long since 5500 levels and riding the full momentum, We thought of revisiting the Nifty Technical Set-up and come up with an outlook and possible scenarios on the eve of Modi Government’s Maiden budget to benefit the subscribers, Advisors, Dealers, Investing community and other market participants in large

While there is no doubt, that we are in a “Bull Market” and should stay invested in equities, the only question that remains unanswered is the entry point and timing. Entry point and timing is especially crucial for investors/ portfolio managers who were caught unaware by this tremendous rally and who remained on the sidelines by choice or by compulsion.

Few Technical observations

~ Nifty has rallied exactly 50% from August low of 5119 to recent high of 7700 in flat 9 months.

~ An index giving 50% return in just 9 months after 6-7 years of consolidation tells us something. It is shouting from the top of the roof that the “Bull Market” has started and is here to stay for a longer period of time

~ Nifty has however become highly overbought and has rallied ahead of its time by showing such a tremendous performance

Possible Scenarios’s

~ In such a scenario where Nifty has become overbought and has rallied ahead of it’s time, 2 things can possibly happen.

a)      Price Wise Correction

b)      Time wise Correction

~The Basic tenets of “technical Analysis” will help us to answer the question of the magnitude of Price Wise Correction and/or time Correction. The Basic tenets of Technical Analysis are

a)      The market Discounts everything

b)      Price moves in Trends

c)       History repeats itself

~ We believe markets have very well factored in the “Formation of Modi Government” and therefore are not able to sustain above May 16 highs and hence investing just on the basis of new government in centre would be a repetitive loop which could backfire. In other words we need fresh trigger points for the Nifty to move up going forward...

KEYS TO TRADE IN NIFTY FOR FRIDAY 27-JUNE-2014

• The rupee on Thursday fell back two paise to end at 60.14 against the dollar on weak local equities and demand for the US currency from importers, snapping two straight days of marginal gains.
• Dow Jones 21 points down @ 16,846
• Nikkei 95 points down @ 15,213
• HENG SENG 66  points down @ 23,131
• Results today  : Bharati Shipyard Ltd.,Daulat Securities Ltd.