NIFTY VIEW & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 1 AUG 2019

Market ended higher today but recorded their worst month this year in July as a tepid results season, consumption slowdown and outflows from hurt sentiment. The Nifty today closed up at 11118, while the Sensex ended higher at 37481. For July, the Nifty was down 5.7%, its worst since September, while Sensex fell 4.9% to an eight-month low.

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Last week’s mayhem continued in today’s session as we started proceedings for the week with a downside gap tad below 11350. The selling aggravated as the day progressed and in the process, we went on to violate the crucial support zone of 11200 – 11150 as well following Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's comment that the government does not intend to review its overseas borrowing plan. The Sensex index - which opened 160 points higher at 38043 - gave up early gains to fall as much as 148 points to 37734, and the Nifty moved to 11214, down 70 points from the previous close.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & MAY EXPIRY TRADING TIPS 29 JUL TO 2 AUG 2019

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11400, 11500, 11600

 PIVOT POINT: 11300

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11200, 11100, 11000

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11350, 11450, 11550

PIVOT POINT:11275

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11325, 11225, 11125

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

This week’s mayhem continued as we saw a gap down opening of the week followed by a sustained selling throughout the first half in Monday’s session. This sell off was disheartening because the stable propositions like HDFC Twins and Kotak Bank also finally succumbed to the market destruction. These marquee names have been reluctant to correct since many months and in fact, have propelled index to the record highs. But monday, they looked completely dejected and hence, correction reinforced to test the 11300 mark. Fortunately, the selling got arrested in the latter half and we had a small bounce back to eventually close around 11350. Tuesday, started slightly higher but similar to recent trends, this gap up opening was merely a formality and in the initial hour, we were back to Monday’s low. Once again, we saw some respite at lower levels and in the penultimate hour, index surged towards the 11400 mark. Things looked good but mighty bears had other plans as we saw a complete nosedive once we stepped into a final hour. In the process, we erased all gains in a flash and due to mild recovery towards the end, Nifty closed with marginal losses. Wednesday seems that our markets are not even interested looking at what global market was doing. While US bourses hitting record highs every day, our market still looks dejected and Wednesday too, we had a massive cut in the first half after breaching the 11300 mark. Fortunately, the fall got arrested at a kissing distance from 11200 and thereafter, we kept oscillating with volatile swings throughout the remaining part of the day. Eventually, the Nifty concluded with over half a percent cut. Thursday had a flat opening owing to mixed global cues. However, during the first half an hour of the trade, we saw strong bout of buying to push the index near Wednesday’s high of 11359. In fact, in this process, Nifty managed to surpass it by a small margin and then similar to recent trend, this lead got sold into. Thereafter, index struggled throughout the remaining part of the day to eventually conclude the July series at two month’s low.  Friday market ended lackluster trade with marginal gains. Nifty traded range-bound for better part of the day tracking corporate earnings and weakness in global markets. Nifty settled at 11284 mark up 32 points.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11100; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11500

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Corporate earnings and F&O contract expiry took the market indices in the red. Sensex gives up 300-pt, while Nifty settles July series below 11300 mark. Fearing longevity of the current bear phase, investors choose to wait and watch in the near term.

NIFTY VIEW & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 25 JUL 2019

The market extended decline to fifth straight day as sell-off across sectors intensified. The market opened lower and extended declines with Sensex declining as much as 274 points and the Nifty dropping to over two month low of 11230. The Sensex fell 135 points to close at 37848 and the Nifty dropped 60 points to settle at 11271. The markets are expected to fall 8-10 percent from current levels, we are factoring in earnings per share of 575-580 for the Nifty in current financial year with a 17.5-21.5 times price-to-earnings. We could see the markets falling below the lowest estimated P/E if there are uncertainties in the macro, liquidity and the earnings. 

NIFTY VIEW & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 24 JUL 2019

Market slipped for fourth consecutive session on Tuesday as weak corporate earnings, hinting at an economic slowdown, kept investors' sentiment muted. Heavy selling in select bluechip stocks like HDFC twins, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries and HCL Tech dragged indices lower during the last hour of trade. The Sensex settled below the 38000 mark at 37983 levels, down 48 points. The Nifty, ended at 11331 mark, down 15 points.

NIFTY VIEW & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 23 JUL 2019

The week has started on negative note. Bears continued to grip the markets in today’s session also…!!!! Nifty came close to 11300 mark, made a low of 11301.  Extending their losing streak to the third session in a row, market ended lower on Monday with the frontline indices tumbling nearly 1% amid selling in bluechip counters such as HDFC duos, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever and ITC. The Sensex lost 306 points to settle at 38031. The Nifty slipped 82 points to settle at 11337 levels. Nifty started from 11392 made a high of 11398.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & MAY EXPIRY TRADING TIPS 22 JUL TO 26 JUL 2019

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11475, 11575, 11675

 PIVOT POINT: 11400

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11325, 11275, 11200

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11450, 11550, 11650

PIVOT POINT:11425

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11375,11350,11300

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The week closed on negative note. The Sensex slips 560 pts to log 2nd biggest fall in 2019 so far, Nifty ends at 11419. The Nifty hinted at a positive opening of the week and in line with the expectations, our markets started trading for the week on a positive note above the 11600 mark. The index then consolidated in a range throughout the session and ended the day tad below 11600. The index heavyweight ‘Infosys’ announced its quarterly results over the weekend and the market participants gave thumbs up to its better than expected numbers.  Nifty opened on a flat note on Tuesday and consolidated below the resistance of 11640 for most part of the session. However, Nifty breached this resistance during later part of the session and ended the day around the high point with gains of over six-tenths of a percent.  The index opened marginally positive in Wednesday’s trading session and traded in a narrow range throughout the day to end tad below the 11700 mark. In last few sessions, Nifty has seen a pullback move and has tested its '20 DEMA' in Wednesday’s session. Although the index has given a pullback moves of more than 200 points from the recent lows. Most of the Asian markets were trading with a flat to negative bias before our market open and our indices too witnessed a flat opening in Thursday’s session. However, the weekly expiry session witnessed a negative momentum from the opening ticks itself and the index corrected throughout the session to end the day around 11600. On Friday market slid as there was sharp sell-off by foreign funds due to the government’s reluctance to tweak FPIs income tax surcharge, and the deficiency in monsoon rain, which impacted risk sentiment. Additionally, downward revision in India’s growth to 7% by ADB and lackluster earnings from domestic corporates added anxiety over premium valuation.  
NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11350; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11600

Next week is the expiry week on Jul series, honestly at this juncture; it’s hard to give any possible direction for the forthcoming week. We need to see how market reacts in the first half. Till the time, 11425-11400 are not violated, the broader structure does not get distorted. But in case if it happens, then get ready for some sharper cuts in the market. On the higher side, 11640-11700 remains to be a sturdy wall. If market has to regain strength, the banking needs to take a charge. Also the IT and Midcaps witnessed complete sell off and hence, we need to see whether the correction is overdone or yet to extend further. At present, traders are advised to stay light and it’s better to adopt a confirmatory approach for a while.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

NIFTY VIEW & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 18 JUL 2019

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Fresh trade war concerns between the Unites States and China kept the markets jittery. Markets ended Wednesday's choppy trading session with gains. Market continued to gain for third consecutive session with the Nifty reclaiming 11700 level intraday. Corporate earnings kept indices volatile with buying being witnessed in selected PSU and IT scrips. The Sensex added 85 points to settle at 39216 levels with State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, HCL tech and IndusInd Bank being top gainers. On the contrary, YES Bank, Maruti, ONGC and NTPC were at the lower end of the spectrum.

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Bulls are back in action..!!! nifty managed to close above 11650 mark.  Benchmark indices closed strong with the Sensex rising 234 points to 39131 and the Nifty climbing 72 points to 11661. The indices touched intra-day highs of 39174 level at the Sensex and 11670 level at the Nifty. A slew of positive vibes from heavyweights ahead of earnings and lower domestic yield supported the market while profit booking on IT stocks and weak rupee limited gains. Earnings will be the major catalyst where investors are keen to get cues from Q1FY20 results and guidance. Sharp fall in domestic 10-year yield to 6.34% and accommodative stance by the RBI provide a hope for further monetary easing.

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Infosys result changed market sentiments. Liquidity issue in the domestic market and weak economic data in China put pressure on the market. Green shoots from earnings lifted the sentiment of IT sector while ease in WPI inflation (June) to 2.02% added some cheer in the market. Q1 results announced so far have been mixed and going forward is expected to be subdued. Market ended higher led by the rally in Infosys Ltd. The Sensex closed 161 points higher at 38896 and the Nifty ended at 11588. 

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Bulls failed to retain control as Nifty failed to hold on to 11,500 on a closing basis while Sensex fell nearly 200 points in volatile trade. Sensex fell 173 points to 38,557 while Nifty closed 57 points down at 11,498. The index closed below 100-day exponential moving average placed around 11,500.The next big support for Nifty50 is now placed at 11,316, which is 200-day EMA. We advise investors to trade cautiously and wait for clear signs of a breakout for initiating long positions. Nifty formed a bearish candle but it closed above July 9 intraday low of 11,461 that suggests there is a possibility of a pullback. If the index breaks below this level then the selling pressure could extend towards 11,420-11,300, while a close above 11,600 could bull back in charge.

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Resistance: 11600, 11650

Support: 11450, 11400

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 09 JUL 2019

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Worst ever crash of the year 2019. The Sensex and Nifty posted their worst single-day fall of 2019 as investor sentiment was spooked by the Budget proposals. The Finance Bill which was tabled in the parliament by the country's first full-time woman Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman called for increasing the minimum public shareholding for all listed companies to 35% from the current limit of 25%, threatening a wave of new issuances. Apart from increasing the public shareholding, the Budget for full financial year 2019-20 also called for imposing 20% tax on share buy backs and also raised the tax incidence for foreign portfolio investors and high net-worth individuals. The Sensex slumped as much as 907 points to touch intraday low of 38605 and Nifty dropped 287 points to hit intraday low of 11523. From the stock market’s point of view, this budget is at best a hogwash. Looks like, the government treats investing in line with cigarette and alcohol use. That's why it finds reason to impose taxes on equity in some form or other. This year, instead of abolishing taxes on dividend, it has imposed a tax on share buybacks. Both are ridiculous, because both are exercised with tax-paid money. Dividend instantly gives expensive money in the hands of investors, while buyback creates value.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & MAY EXPIRY TRADING TIPS 8 JUL TO 12 JUL 2019

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11900, 11950, 12000

 PIVOT POINT: 11800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11750, 11700, 11650

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11850,11900,11950

PIVOT POINT:11815

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11775,11725,11675
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

 Nifty finally managed to close above 11800 mark. We had a head start for the current week and with Union Budget scheduled on 5 july  2019. Monday morning, there was a complete sea of green in all equity markets across the globe, mainly on the back of some positive developments with respect to US-China trade war over the weekend. Our markets too had a rub off effect of this and as a result, we opened higher well above the 11800 mark. This was followed by a consolidation throughout the remaining part; but the bias remained strongly bullish as we witnessed a series of higher highs higher lows to conclude with over six tenths of a percent gains. Tuesday, our markets started on a positive note owing to global cues. However it was merely a formality as we saw index sliding into a negative territory in the initial trades and in the process went on to test the psychological support of 11800 (low 11815). In line with recent pattern, this the dip was construed as a buying opportunity which accelerated in the latter half to not only reclaim the positive territory but also to conclude the session above the 11900 mark. Wednesday our markets opened higher in-line with what Nifty had indicated. After initial hiccups, index settled above the 11900 mark and then gradually extended the early morning lead. However, some profit booking was witnessed at the stroke of the final hour, which pared down major portion of gains to conclude with negligible gains.  Thursday also had a gap up opening; however the margin has not been so great. During the day, we witnessed completely lackluster moves as there was no participation seen ahead of the major event (Budget). Some small swings were seen in the final hour; but it was certainly not a notable movement. Hence, Nifty eventually ended tad below the 11950 mark by adding one fourth of a percent to the previous close. On Friday Market came down after Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her maiden budget. The sensex dropped nearly 450 points, while the Nifty tested 11800-levels as soon as the Budget speech was over. Sensex crashed 450 points 39459; and Nifty moved 143 points or lower to 11804.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11590; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @12000

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Wednesday's range bound trading session ended on negative note as investors remained on the sidelines a day before the new government tables the Economic Survey in the Parliament on Thursday, July 4.  Nifty  ended marginally higher in the volatile with Nifty able to hold 11900. At close Sensex was up 22 points at 39839, while Nifty was up 6 points at 11916.

Nifty remains in a structural uptrend and is expected to scale new highs. 

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Bulls are back on the driver seat in Tuesday's session Sensex advances 130 pts, Nifty successfully closed above 11900 mark. Market sentiments were boosted on optimism ahead of Budget 2019 scheduled to be presented later this week.  The Sensex gained 129 points to close at 39816 and the Nifty climbed 44 points to 11910 but the market breadth was balanced.

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Market ended with strong gains on Monday tracking global markets as the US-China announced resumption of trade talks after a meeting between US president Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The Sensex ended almost 300 points higher, while the Nifty settled above 11850. The Sensex ended 291 points up at 39686, while Nifty was up 76 points at 11865.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & MAY EXPIRY TRADING TIPS 1 JUL TO 5 JUL 2019

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11900, 11950, 12000

 PIVOT POINT: 11800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11750, 11700, 11650

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11850,11900,11950

PIVOT POINT:11815

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11775,11725,11675

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The global set up has been excellent throughout the week, in fact, US markets hastened towards all-time highs after recent under performance. However, we failed to capitalize on this positive development as some of the domestic wounds still continues to hurt us badly. Barring Thursday’s session, there was no respite in our markets. Fortunately, despite various attempts to breach 11650, our benchmark managed to defend key levels and went on to confirm a weekly close tad above the 11800 mark. Tracking the mixed cues from the Asian peers, Nifty started the week on a flat note then consolidated in a range throughout the day and ended around the 11700 mark. ON Tuesday some of the Asian peers were trading with decent cuts before our market opened. The Nifty hinted at marginal negative opening and in line with the same, Nifty traded with a negative bias post few minutes of opening. However, the Nifty once again reverted higher from the support of 11650 and it then rallied higher throughout the session to end around the 11800 mark. Similar to the Tuesday’s session, the index opened marginally negative on Wednesday and the opening weakness was seen as a buying opportunity by market participants. The indices rallied higher from the opening ticks and traded with a positive bias throughout the session to end around the 11850 mark. Post opening on a flat note, the Nifty continued its positive momentum and rallied higher to surpass the 11900 mark in Thursday’s session. However, the index corrected from the highs in the last hour of the F&O expiry session and wiped off the intraday gains to end on a flat note. On Friday’s the Sensex was trading 80 points lower at 39505 levels, with IndusInd Bank, YES Bank, Vedanta, Tata Steel, and ICICI Bank among the top losers. The broader Nifty50 index slipped 25 points, to hover around 11,816 levels.

EXPECTATION FROM BUDGET 2019

The expectations are running high this time around as well – largely on two factors. This will be the maiden Budget of the newly appointed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, and secondly, the Indian economy is showing signs of a slowdown.

A big bang Budget is what the Street is expecting from the Finance Minister. Investors will keep an eye on the Fiscal deficit objectives of the government (3.4 percent of GDP), change in market borrowing plans, and any revisions in tax revenues.

Expectations from the new government’s full Budget for 2019

Reduction in STT or restoration of rebate

Financial Sector reforms

DBT, Waivers, and Increase in short term loans up to Rs 1 Lakh

Plug GST leakages and increase collection

Divestment

Road map to Direct Tax Code

The larger picture today is that the government needs to revive growth, generate tax revenues, provide consumption subsidy to rural farmers, reduce tax rates for taxpayers and businesses, and incentivise investors to promote investment in capital markets and real estate. Given the lower than expected GST collections, the government also needs to identify causes for the shortfall in revenue collections. This may entail a restructuring of the GST structure. Some of these objectives are clearly at odds with each other; for instance, growth in tax revenues and tax cuts, fiscal discipline, and growth in revenues, etc.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11650; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @12000