NIFTY PREDICTION & OPTION CALLS FOR 17 DEC 2019

After hitting a new record high of 41185 points, Sensex ended 71 points lower at 40938 today. The Nifty, on the other hand, lost 26 points to 12060 points. In the opening session, Sensex had jumped over 175 points to a new record high of 41185 while Nifty Bank had also hit a new high. The Nifty index remained volatile and swung both ways between the level 12134 high  & 12046 low before ending lower at 12053 below 12100 mark. The Nifty has been struggling to clear the 12150–12200 zone. Looking at the chart of the Nifty, it can be construed that the index is trading in the 11900–12150 range, which is similar to the previous week. The short-term trend would be dented only on a breach of the 11900 mark.

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12200, 12300, 12400

 PIVOT POINT: 12000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11900, 11800, 11700

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12100, 12150, 12200
PIVOT POINT: 12050
DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  12000, 11950, 11900
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY
If an end well all is well finally nifty closed the week near 12100 mark. Bulls march ahead and continue with the momentum. All signs suggest bulls are in a mood to push index higher towards fresh all-time highs however, over the weekend global as well as local triggers are lined up which could create some volatility going ahead. Market breadth was strongly positive and all sectoral indices were in the positive with the highest gainer being the PSU bank index. After a gap up opening market extended gains on Friday on the back of the progress in US-China trade deal and the Conservative Party's likely win in the UK polls. The Sensex was trading 400 points, higher at 40980 levels while the nifty closed the week at 12085 up by 114 points. The Nifty index started the week on a flat note and then corrected in the initial 15 minutes of trade. However, the support of 11883 played its role and the index rebounded from its morning lows. The index then consolidated in a range for the rest of the session and ended the Monday’s session with marginal gains at 11937. The Nifty index started trading on a flat note on Tuesday. Post consolidating in a range till noon, the index corrected along with the broader markets and ended the session with a loss of about 80 points at 11857. Post opening on a flat note on Wednesday, the Nifty pulled a bit higher upto 11900 in the first hour of the trade. However, the index then resumed its correction and crept lower to breach the previous day’s low. Just when the broader markets were witnessing a selling pressure, the index recovered smartly in the last hour of the day and rallied to close above the 11900 mark. After a smart recovery in the last hour in Wednesday’s session, the indices opened gap up in Thursday’s trading session. During the day, the index reclaimed the 12000 mark as the broader markets witnessed good momentum and it ended the session at 11972 with gains of over half a percent. There are a couple of reasons behind Friday’s rally. Not only Boris Johnson is getting the majority that augments smooth Brexit expectations, the trade war also going to end. That is helping the market sentiments. One of the key reason, why US China deals have not worked is due to China not fulfilling its obligation for importing farm products from US. We believe the new agreement will have provisions for automatic roll back of tariff cuts if the other party does not fulfill its obligations. Hence, the chances of this deal going though are better than earlier efforts. From global standpoint, it’s positive news for commodities and equity markets.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11800; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @12250

The indices then witnessed a swift up to conclude the week on a positive note. The index surpassed the 12100 mark, but ended the session tad below it at 12085. A sustained move above 12000 could again lead to some broad based buying which could provide good trading opportunities. The Buy on dip approach seem to be working quite well and hence, traders are advised to continue to capitalize on the same and trade with a positive bias. For next week, the support for Nifty is placed in the range of 11900-11800 whereas resistance is seen around 12150-12250.

 TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Market has seen stupendous run over the past couple of months without any major correction. During this week, we finally saw some respite to this ongoing optimism. In the latest Golden Cross, the 50-day moving average of the MSCI EM Index has reached 12098 compared with the 200-day moving average of 12133. The index had gained nearly 6% after forming a Golden Cross pattern before topping out. The Sensex and Nifty too reported the Golden Cross formation about a fortnight ago A Golden Cross occurs when the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term average. It is perceived as a bullish technical pattern. Besides, Nifty 50’s relative strength index (RSI) is currently 53. RSI is a measure of magnitude of the recent price change. RSI of more than 70 is considered as overbought territory, while sub-30 is oversold.  The sharp upside momentum continued in the Nifty today for the third consecutive sessions and closed the day with decent gains. A long bull candle was formed today with back to back opening upside gaps (both the upside gaps are unfilled). Technically, this pattern indicates a sharp comeback of bulls from the lower levels. Nifty as per weekly timeframe formed a long bull candle with lower shadow. This candle pattern was formed immediately after the formation of bearish engulfing type pattern in the last week. This is positive indication and one may expect further upside in the short term. A sustainable move above 12150 levels could nullify the negative implication of bearish engulfing. One may expect Nifty to reach up to 12,150-200 levels by next week and there is a possibility of an emergence of selling pressure again around all-time highs. Near term, support is places at 11975 zone & Resistance at 12200.

NIFTY PREDICTION & OPTION CALLS FOR 13 DEC 2019

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Bulls made a strong comeback in the market & crossed 12000 mark. The Sensex ended 169 points, higher at 40581.Similarly; the Nifty settled 61 points, higher at 11971. Domestic investors were following cues from global markets which advanced on the US Federal Reserve's dovish outlook. The Federal Reserve policy changed the market sentiments. The Federal Reserve made no change in interest rates in an effort to maintain the economic growth. Investors are also awaiting factory output data scheduled to be released later in the day.  

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A lackluster trading session ended on slightly positive note. Finally bulls successful defended the 11900 mark to close at 11919. Upcoming macro indicators such as CPI inflation and IIP data are unlikely to paint a rosy picture, which may reduce upside potential in the near term. On the global front, FOMC meeting, UK election and US tariff deadline remain key events.

As bulls remain in relaxing mood, indices moves are choppy and recoveries are not sustaining. We continue with our near term view of consolidation phase in the market.

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Bulls are on back foot bears continued to grip the markets in Tuesday’s session also…!!!! Nifty came below 11900 mark. After opening at 11950 nifty made a high of 11953 & came down to 11844 & finally closed at 11856 down by 80 points in intraday. The Sensex ended at 40239 level, down 247 points. Profit-booking continued at the bourses as weak domestic and global economic scenario kept investors on the sidelines. Selling in domestic market accentuated as investors turned more cautious over double whammy of inflationary pressure and weak growth. Another factor which is impacting market is the likelihood of maintenance of status quo on rates by both US Fed and ECB. Given domestic premium valuation of key indices, market is highly susceptible for near term volatility.

NIFTY PREDICTION & OPTION CALLS FOR 10 DEC 2019

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Bulls are on back foot bears continued to grip the markets on the first day of the week but ended the volatile trading session in the positive territory supported by buying in blue-chip stocks. Market was rangebound as investors are closely watching the upcoming economic macros such as CPI inflation and IIP data for any signs of progress in the govt’s effort to revive the economy. FIIs are likely to turn risk averse in domestic market as strong US job data, progress in trade talks and expectations of status quo in Fed policy will add impetus to global markets. The Sensex settled 42 points, higher at 40487 level. The Nifty settled at 11937 -mark, up 16 points.

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12100, 12200, 12300

 PIVOT POINT: 11900

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11800, 11700, 11600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12000, 12050, 12100
PIVOT POINT: 11900
DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11800, 11750, 11700
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The index has undergone a corrective move in three out of four trading sessions so far this week. Even the market breadth remained in favor of declining counters, which indicates profit booking in individual stocks. At this juncture, it is trading this week with a loss of around 0.31 percent. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank index too suffered some selling and is trading with a loss of 0.73% from its previous week’s close.  Monday morning, the global cues were excellent and were ideal to have a head start for the first week of December. In line with this, we had a gap up opening with a fair margin; but it was merely a formality to remain in sync with the Asian traders. Within a few seconds, the lead got disappeared and we were back below 12100. After this, the Nifty made one more attempt to inch higher but once again this short up move got sold into. During the remaining part of the day, market consolidated with no major movement and eventually ended the session with a negligible loss on Monday. Similar to Monday’s session, the early morning gap up opening was merely a formality as we saw index giving up all gains in few minutes of trade. In fact, the selling aggravated as the day progressed and in the course of action, Nifty was at a kissing distance from 11950. At one point, things looks extremely bleak; but fortunately for us, patient buyers entered on declines which helped index recoup some portion of its losses at the close. On Wednesday once again the escalated concerns over Sino-US trade war spooked the market participants across the globe. Fortunately for us, we did not react so negatively to this development as some of the global peers did. After seeing a marginal cut at the opening, the index picked up strong momentum in the upward direction in first 30 minutes of trade. In the process, Nifty managed to reclaim the 12000 mark. However, the selling recurred at higher levels; resulting into a nosedive below 11950 at the midst. By the grace of god, traders / investors were given yet another opportunity to smile as we witnessed not only a v-shaped recovery but also a convincing break above morning high to end the session by adding over four tenths of a percent to the bulls’ kitty On Wednesday, we had a strong last hour surge in our market, which probably was the reflection of hopes built for yet another rate cut by RBI. In line with this, the market was trading with a positive bias ahead of the monetary policy; but ‘Status Quo’ from RBI clearly disappointed market participants and as a result, the Nifty gave up all gains and slipped into a negative territory. The most sensitive index, Bank Nifty tumbled from morning highs and remained under pressure thereafter. Eventually, the day ended with some cuts on indices as well as the broader market.

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A lackluster trading session ended on marginally negative note. Nifty somehow managed to hold above the 12000 mark, as concerns over growth and RBI’s status quo on policy rate hurt investor sentiment. The RBI decision for a status quo though an unanticipated policy surprise is the most appropriate as monetary policy works with a lag.  The lowering of the GDP growth for FY20 and FY21 reflects continued growth conundrums and a slow recovery. On the development and regulatory front, the steps announced for the Primary (Urban) Co-operative Banks will facilitate increased public confidence in these institutions. Today’s policy announcements have also given further push for the development of the secondary market for corporate loans by creation of SRB thereby matching the global best practices in this regard. Decision to allow OTC currency derivative transactions upto USD 10 million without evidence of underlying exposure will provide a fresh breath of life to this market giving it much required depth going forward.

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Bulls & bears were on a roller coaster ride as nifty started with marginal losses, but remained highly volatile and finally managed to reclaim its bullishness to settle near the 12050 mark. The Nifty closed with the gain of around 50 points after news agency Bloomberg reported that the US and China were closer to signing trade deal despite heated rhetoric. The Sensex surged 374 points from day's low to settle at 40850 level, up 175 points., The Nifty was back above the psychological mark of 12000, and settled 49 points at 12043-mark.

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A lackluster trading session ended on negative note, on the back of weakness in the global markets and neutral to negative domestic flow. Nifty witnessed selling since the start of the day and closed at 11,994 with a loss of 54 points, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart. In the second half of the trading session, bulls tried to comeback in safer zone from the lows of 11960 and closed around 12000. Market turned cautious due to global issues like import tariffs by the US on Argentina & Brazil and likely retaliation by China over the support by the US in Hong Kong which could impact the progressing trade deal. A slide in telecom stocks after a recent spike and risk of a further downgrade in FY20 GDP estimate due to overshooting inflation and weak demand could be the risks to be mitigated by RBI in the policy meet this week.

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A volatile trading session ended on flat note as losses in auto and private bank stocks offset rally in telecom counters. The sensex closed marginally higher by 8 points at 40802, it swung between a high of 41093 and a low of 40707 during the day. Nifty settled 7 points down at 12048.

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12200, 12300, 12400
 PIVOT POINT: 12100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  12000, 11900, 11800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12150, 12200, 12250

PIVOT POINT: 12100

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  12050, 12000, 11950

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

In the penultimate week, we saw some indecision in the market around 12000 which eventually resulted into a decline towards 11900. However, on Monday, the week kick started on an optimistic note and marked a fantastic intraday rally to reclaim 12000 with some authority. Clearly the opening day had set the tone for the rest of the week. In-line with this, the rally extended as the week progressed and finally on Thursday, the Nifty surpassed its previous record highs to mark a new number of 12158.80. However on Friday, the Asian bourses once again looked a bit nervous and as a rub off effect of the same, we witnessed some profit booking to conclude the week tad above the 12050 mark.  We have been quite vocal since last few weeks that it’s a matter of time we would see Nifty clocking fresh record highs and finally it’s a reality now. In fact, despite the penultimate week’s tail end decline, we remained firm and advised using this as a buying opportunity. The strategy played out well and in spite of slightly weak day on Friday, we continue with our positive stance on the market. The benchmark index has registered a highest ever weekly as well as Monthly close and the way charts are shaped up, we expect continuation of the northward trajectory.

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Nifty opened with an upside gap for the fourth consecutive session and remained in the positive territory throughout Thursday’s session. Continuing their record-breaking streak, markets hit new highs today. The Sensex settled 109 points higher at 41130, a new closing high. Intra-day it rose to a new high of 41163. The Nifty also settled at a new closing high of 12154.

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New day new high!!!! Bulls continued to rule the street. Continuing their bull run, market ended at fresh closing high on Wednesday, led by buying in financial, auto and metal counters. Optimism surrounding the signing of the first phase of a US-China trade deal also boosted investor sentiment.  The Sensex climbed 199 points to end at 41021, - its fresh closing peak. It was the first time that the index settled above the crucial 41000-mark.

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Bulls were gun-gho and pushed the nifty to all-time highs in today’s session. Indian markets hit new milestones today but failed to hold on to gains and ended moderately lower. Sensex off 300 points from day’s high & nifty ended 68 points lower below 12050 mark. The Sensex hit 41000 for the first time today, rising to 41120 at day's high before settling 68 points lower at 40821. The Nifty also hit a new intra-day high of 12132 today but settled 0.30% lower at 12037. The Nifty Bank index today hit a new high of 31850 and ended 0.50% higher at 31718.  Nifty finally managed to touch new high today on the back of strong global cues, FII buying and improvement in market sentiments post slew of Government reforms. While the initiatives taken by the government and RBI will take time to work on the ground and reflect in numbers, the market is focusing on long-term reforms (Tax cuts, potential Disinvestment/Privatization, further stimulus/ reforms, etc.). Improvement in global cues (easing of the US-China trade war, range-bound crude oil prices, monetary easing by the US Fed, US equity markets at new high) is also aiding sentiments.

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Continuing their record-breaking run Nifty kick started the week on a positive note, as it witnessed a sharp rally of more than 150 points in Monday’s trade. The bulls were aggressive from early trade and continued to pull the indices higher as the day progressed. Indian markets hit new milestones today with Sensex registering new intra-day and closing highs, tracking higher global markets. The Sensex ended 529 points higher at 40889, a new closing high. During the day, the Sensex also hit a new intra-day high of 40931.. The Nifty settled 1.3% higher at 12078. At day's high, Nifty raised to 12084, less 20 points away its all-time high of 12103 hit in June this year. Global markets were mostly higher today on fresh optimism over the long-running China-US trade talks after Beijing offered an olive branch on the key issue of intellectual property, while Donald Trump hailed progress on the agreement.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 25 NOV TO 29 NOV 2019

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12100, 12200, 12300

 PIVOT POINT: 11900

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11800, 11700, 11600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12000, 12050, 12100
PIVOT POINT: 11950

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11900, 11850, 11800

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The week kick started slightly higher owing to positive cues from the global peers. However, within first half an hour, index pared down its opening gains to sneak below the 11900 mark. During the remaining part of the session, index consolidated in a slender range of 30 points and spent most of its time inside the negative territory. Eventually, the lacklustre day of trade concluded with negligible losses.  We had a positive start on Tuesday as indicated by the Nifty early in the morning. However, similar to Monday’s session, Nifty gave up this opening lead in first 40 – 45 minutes of trade. Fortunately, the buyers were all prepared to capitalize on this opportunity and hence, due to sustained buying, we saw Nifty successfully conquering the recent hurdle of 11900 on a closing basis by adding nearly half a percent to the bulls’ kitty. Tuesday’s tail end recovery was followed by a decent bump up at the opening on Wednesday. Nifty indicating a sluggish start, we witnessed positivity at the opening which was mainly on the back of favorable cues on the domestic front. During the first half, this lead extended to traverse the 12000 mark. However, during the latter half, index came off a bit due to some profit booking at higher levels and eventually closed at a kissing distance from 12000. Similar to Wednesday’s session, Nifty opened higher on Thursday despite Nifty indicating a sluggish start. And the lead did not last too long or we can say it was merely a formality as index immediately dipped towards 12000 mark. For the major part of the day, index consolidated in a slender range before it again slipped further towards the fag end of the day. Eventually, the Nifty concluded the weekly expiry with a cut of nearly three tenths of a percent. Markets were trading over half a per cent lower on Friday, pulled down by profit-booking by investors and selling in information technology (IT) stocks. In March 2009, if you would have invested in Nifty stocks equal weighted, it would have delivered minus 1% return. There is a massive structural change in Indian economy in the last 6-7 years. If the structure has changed in the economy, it would reflect in Nifty with a lag.

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Bulls were in relaxing mood. After 3 days run bulls were taking breathe. Nifty & sensex ended a little changed on a volatile day. India’s benchmark equity indices closed marginally lower on Thursday amid profit booking. Markets were subdued through the day even as the Union cabinet on Wednesday approved the government’s mega divestment exercise and the markets regulator tightened default disclosure norms. The Sensex lost 76 points to close at 40575. The Nifty fell 30 points to close at 11968.

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Bulls continued to rule the D-street. Market indices ended higher but off day's high with Nifty ended around 12000 level, while Sensex off its record high. At the time of closing, the Sensex was up 181 points at 40651, while Nifty was up 59 points at 11999. The Sensex touched a fresh record high of 40816 during the day.