BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 21 MARCH 2022

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In last week, we witnessed a stellar recovery of nearly 10% in this high beta index and with this, it had reached its important resistance of ’20-day EMA’ placed around 36500. Hence, traders chose to book some profits around it during Tuesday’s session. But as mentioned in the previous commentary, the positive placement in ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on daily chart was clearly indicating of resuming the upward trajectory. Without wasting much of time, the index went on to not only challenge but also surpassed this hurdle on the following session itself. Now for the coming week, the immediate levels to watch out for would be around 36606– 36956; whereas on the flipside, 36256 followed by 35905 are to be seen as key supports.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	36606	36784	36956	36434	36256	36083	35905
Fibonacci	36567	36650	36784	36434	36300	36217	36083
Camarilla	36460	36492	36524	36434	36396	36364	36332

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 21 MARCH TO 25 MARCH 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,034	17,438	18,120	16,353	15,948	15,267	14,862
Fibonacci	16,767	17,024	17,438	16,353	15,938	15,682	15,267
Camarilla	16,729	16,829.	16,929	16,353	16,530	16,431	16,331

 WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,029	17,083	17,179	16,933	16,879	16,783	16,729
Fibonacci	16,991	17,026	17,083	16,933	16,876	16,840	16,783
Camarilla	16,989	17,002	17,016	16,933	16,961	16,947	16,934

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The Indian stock market started the shortened week with optimism, which followed the positive Asian stock markets. The market gradually gained some momentum as buying sentiment increased across the board and continued to rally throughout the day. The benchmark Nifty50 index was up nearly 1.45% to end the day in green, just below the 16900 level. Our market started Tuesday subdued, taking cues from the mixed global bourses. The benchmark index resisted the march into the unfilled gap, seeing lackluster movement for the first few hours. In the second half, strong gain booking dragged the index over 1.23 percent to end the day in red, just above the 16650 level. The Indian stock market started Wednesday's session with a gap-up open amid of the positive global signals. The benchmark index stayed in a narrow range for most of the session before turning into strong buying in the penultimate hour. The broad-based buying has spilled some bullish sentiment on the stock markets, with the Nifty50 index ending the day up 1.87 percent in the green, just below the 17000 mark. On Thursday, benchmark indices celebrated Holi with a gain of 2% on March 17th, even after the Fed hiked interest rates. At the end of the trading week, the Sensex was up 1047 points to 57863 and the Nifty was up 311 points to 17287. Positive global signals following the Fed rate hike, softening oil prices and progress in Russia-Ukraine talks boosted bulls' confidence as benchmark indices gained over 2% in afternoon trade.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16500; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17500

The recent rebound has certainly eased some pressure, but ongoing geopolitical tensions coupled with a surge in COVID cases in China will continue to keep participants on their toes. On the index front, sustainability above 17300 would pave the way for the 17500-17700 zone. In the event of a dip, the 17000 to 16800 zone would act as a buffer. Participants should focus on sectors/stocks showing resilience and adjust positions accordingly.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

On the technical front support for Nifty has now shifted from 16800 to 17000 and as long as the index holds the 17k level the uptrend wave will continue to 17450 and could take the index as high as 17600. However, 17000 could be the sacrosanct support level for Nifty and just below that, Nifty could reach levels of 16900-16800.

PRE HOLI BONANZA ; NIFTY CLOSED ABOVE 17250 MARK

 Markets started strong on 17 March 2022 , gained almost 2% in continuation of the prevailing recovery phase. In line with the previous session, the benchmark opened the gap-up and remained range bound thereafter. Noticeable traction across the board kept the participants on their toes until the end. Most sector indices contributed to the move, with real estate, consumer discretionary and autos being the top performers. Global markets welcomed the Fed's decision to hike rates by 25 basis points as it was within expected lines. However, the Fed's forecast of another six rate hikes over the course of the year is restrictive. The fact that FIIs became net buyers after a long wait was also a relief for the domestic market. With crude oil prices falling, war tensions easing and foreign investors buying back, we can expect the domestic market rally to continue. At the close, the Sensex was up 1047 points, to 57863 and the Nifty was up 311 points to 17287. Approximately 2046 stocks are up, 1270 stocks are down, and 121 stocks are flat. The recent rebound has certainly eased some pressure, but ongoing geopolitical tensions coupled with a surge in COVID cases in China will continue to keep participants on their toes. On the index front, sustainability above 17,350 would pave the way for the 17,500-17,700 zone. In the event of a dip, the 16,800-17,000 zone would act as a buffer. Participants should focus on sectors/stocks showing resilience and adjust positions accordingly.

US FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING OUTCOME ; NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 16 MARCH 2022

The market seems to have recovered from the turbulent phase of the last few weeks. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine lingers, other events such as the slowdown in oil prices and the US Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate front, as well as comments on the pace of future rate hikes will be the focus of investor attention. Markets started Wednesday’s session briskly, gaining almost 2% after taking a breather in Tuesday’s session. Supportive global cues prompted a gap-up open, however caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting result slowed the move later in the day. Meanwhile, strong participation from the broader markets kept participants on their toes. Decline in FII sales and crude oil prices reinforce domestic trend. Positive global cues and a strong rebound in the Chinese market in anticipation of stimulus supported the trend. The market has erased all of the previous days' losses and is up 1.87% on March 16, tracking the rally of its global counterparts ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting result. After a gap-up open, the index showed strength throughout the session, managing to close on a higher note at 16975 for a gain of 312 points, while Bank Nifty gained 2.07% and settled at 35748 leveled off. The world stock market has stabilized when factoring in a 25bps hike by the US Federal Reserve, a policy outlook that will ease the market and we may see a drop in volatility.Markets will first react to the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting in early trading on Thursday 17 march 2022. In addition to global updates, the planned weekly expiry would further increase volatility i.e. on March 17, 2022 tomorrow. We recommend posting some rising gains, pointing to immediate hurdles around the 17000 zone and focusing on identifying opportunities in sectors trading in sync with the benchmark. The Nifty formed a bearish outside bar on the daily chart on March 15th. However, the bulls hit back on March 16, breaching the peak of the bearish pattern. It has also marginally breached a falling trend line and the 40 DEMA. However, it will be crucial to monitor whether the index holds above these parameters. On the higher side, the Nifty is staring at the key barrier of 17000, which is the make-or-break level from a short-term perspective. If the index manages to surpass 17,000 at the end, it faces a jump towards 17200-17500. On the other hand, a failure near 16800, would pull the index back to 16,500. The market ended in a decent gain after a bearish close in the previous session. However, the recovery has taken the Nifty towards the 200-day moving average. Well, as long as the Nifty stays below 200DMA, we can expect volatility in the market. On the lower end support is seen at 16500 while on the upper end 17000 is likely to act as resistance on the closing basis. The trend reversal over the past few sessions is also due to the market being in an oversold territory for the past few weeks. Technically, the Nifty is maintaining a higher high and low formation on intraday charts and is now heading towards 17000 and 17200 respectively. We think the current texture is likely to persist unless the index falls below the 16800-16600 levels. Above this level, the Nifty could rally to levels of 17200-17500. On the other hand, traders may prefer to take a cautious stance when the index falls below 16800 and below, chances of reaching 16700-16600 would be better.

Resistance: 17000, 17100, 17200

Support: 16900, 16800, 16700

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 16 MARCH 2022

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Despite the tepid market conditions, Nifty opened on a positive note but corrected sharply on higher levels on consistent profit booking. From the daily high, the Nifty dropped over 265 points. A correction was seen in sectors such as metals, oil and gas, while there was some buying interest in select auto and consumer sectors. Technically, the market is still on the bullish side in the short-term. However, on the daily charts, Nifty has formed a bearish candle, indicating a strong possibility of temporary weakness. We think that as long as the Nifty holds the 16600-16500 levels, the uptrend is intact. On the higher side, the immediate hurdle would be 16900-17000. On the downside, any drop below 16500 can amplify further weakness to 16400-16300. Markets are expected to remain volatile in the coming days, so level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day trader.

Resistance: 16800, 16900, 17000

Support: 16700, 16600, 16500

INFLATION DATA ON CARD ; NIFTY OUTLOOK & TIPS FOR 15 MARCH 2022

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Markets got off to a buoyant start to the week, gaining over a percent and a half continuing the prevailing recovery. After the flat start, the benchmark gradually rose on healthy buying from banking and IT majors, eventually ending around the daily high. Meanwhile, the broader indices traded mixed, ending with modest gains. Bullish global signals coupled with bargain-hunting among index majors are driving markets higher. For the fifth straight day, the benchmark indices continued the positive momentum as these indices successfully broke through the short-term technical resistance on the charts. Banking and financial stocks outperformed, gaining over 2%, while real estate and metals stocks saw some profit booking.

Markets will initially react to the inflation data in early trading on Tuesday. Updates on prevailing geopolitical tensions and global market developments will also remain in focus. Technically, the Nifty manages to close above the 20-day SMA after a long time. A bullish candle has formed on the daily chart. We believe that as long as Nifty trades above 16800, the uptrend will continue in the near term. For the bulls, the immediate hurdle would be 17000 or the 200-day SMA. On the downside, below 16700, the strong possibility of a quick intraday correction is not ruled out on the Nifty. Below 16700 , Nifty could retest 16650 and 16500. Having passed the critical hurdle at 16800 , Nifty can extend the rebound to a 17,100+ zone. In the event of a dip, 16500 would act as immediate support. Meanwhile, participants should remain focused on sector/stock selection.

Resistance: 16800, 16900, 17000

Support: 16700, 16600, 16500

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 11 MARCH 2022

Continuing  the positive momentum of the recent session, Nifty opened with a big upward gap. However, the index could not be built on the basis of initial profits. The 16800 level  acted as a solid barrier. The Benchmark Index closed at a high price in three consecutive sessions on March 10, supported by buying between sectors. Finally, the Sensex rose 817 points to 55464, and the Nifty rose 249 points to 16594. Market optimism was facilitated by the prospect of favorable results from negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Another promising development was made by the UAE, a  member of OPEC +, as it said it would help inject oil into markets where supply shortages are occurring due to US sanctions on Russian oil. If OPEC + countries agree to increase production, crude oil profits may be limited in the next session.  BJP's strong move in the state elections has been added to the bullish sentiment. Investors should continue to pay attention, as geopolitical impasses remain unpredictable, but may consider buying stock for long-term goals.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK AND TRADING TIPS FOR EXPIRY DAY 09 MARCH 22

The market ended higher for the second straight day on Wednesday 9th March with Nifty closing above the 16300 level. At the close, the Sensex was up 1223 points to 54647 and the Nifty was up 331 points to 16345. Markets continued yesterday's recovery, gaining over 2%, following the recovery in global indices. After starting flat, the benchmark gradually rose throughout the day and settled closer to the daily high.  The recent rebound is in line with global counterparts and it would be too early to speak of a reversal. Alongside the geopolitical updates, domestic factors i.e. the state election results, are in focus. We expect volatility to remain high, so participants should favor hedged trades.

The Nifty formed a bullish outside bar along with an engulfing bull candle on the daily chart on March 8th. As a result of these bullish patterns, the index saw a sustained recovery on March 9th. On the way up, the index has crossed the major hourly moving averages as well as the key 16200 hurdle. The hourly momentum indicator, which was showing positive divergence, is now firmly in positive territory. The overall structure shows that the recovery from a strong support zone, i.e. 15850-15750, and that the recovery is expected to continue. Going forward, the index is expected to test the crucial 16500 barrier where it stumbled over the past week.

Resistance: 16450, 16550, 16650

Support: 15850, 15750, 15650

NIFTY OUTLOOK AND TRADING TIPS FOR 09 MARCH 22

Continuing recent bearish momentum, the Nifty opened a gap on the downside and attempted to extend further down. It broke the 15700 level on an intraday basis but received strong support on the bottom. Consequently, the index staged a strong recovery towards the end of the session, leading to a bullish outside bar formation on the daily chart. Domestic indices reversed trend and traded with profits, led by export-oriented sectors such as pharmaceuticals and IT, which saw buying interest as the rupee fell to record lows. Favorable exit poll results from the state election and weak buying among mid and small caps also helped boost optimism in the domestic market. Markets staged a spectacular rebound as Nifty closed more than 300 days at a low. A bullish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily chart, indicating a near-term positive reversal. Indian benchmark indices closed higher on March 8 amid high volatility led by real estate, IT and pharma stocks. Finally, the Sensex rose 581 points to 53424 and the Nifty rose 150 points to 16013.

NIFTY OUTLOOK AND TRADING TIPS FOR 8 MARCH 22

On March 7th 2022 Monday, Nifty had a significant gap to the downside on global cues. With this open to the downside, the index broke certain short-term supports held in the 16,200-16,000 range. The larger structure shows that the Nifty has tested a 61.8% retracement of the previous April-October rally, which is near 15850. Although the index broke this key Fibonacci level on an intraday basis, it managed to hold this level on the closing basis. Local equities markets have succumbed to selling pressure and are down over 2%, dragging the Sensex and Nifty below critical levels of 53000 and 15900, respectively. The Nifty index plunged more than 2% to close at 15863 levels while Bank Nifty fell by 4% to settle at 32871 levels.

Concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as rising crude oil prices, drove the markets lower. Oil prices increased by more than 6%, reaching their highest level since 2008, as the US and its European allies consider imposing a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the prospective return of Iranian petroleum to global markets exacerbated supply concerns. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew a total of Rs 17,537 crore from Indian markets in just three trading days in March. All Asian markets were trading down on the global front, reflecting a drop in global equity markets amid increasing commodity prices and a worsening Russia-Ukraine crisis. During the continuous market turmoil, inflation fears prompted a rush for safe-haven assets, pushing the global gold price to $2,000 per ounce today. On the technical front, immediate support and resistance in Nifty 50 are 15500 and 16000 respectively. Bank Nifty's immediate support and resistance are 32500 and 35000 respectively. The channel study also shows that Nifty broke some lower channel lines today but found support near the bottom of a steeper channel. Consequently, Nifty has stopped near another support zone that is near 15800-15700 which holds the key to proceed further. On the other hand, 16200 and 16000 will now serve as hurdles in the near term. Domestic market extended the losses in Monday's session as prospects of the US and its allies imposing sanctions on Russian oil exports.

Resistance: 16800, 16900, 17000

Support: 16700, 16600, 16500

NIFTY OUTLOOK AND TRADING TIPS FOR 7 MARCH TO 11 MARCH, 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16400, 16600, 16800

PIVOT POINT: 16200

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16000, 15800, 15600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16300, 16400, 16500

PIVOT POINT: 16250

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16150, 16050, 15950

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The Indian stock market got off to a dismal start to the shortened week on 28 feb 2022 Monday, which saw broader indices plummet in early trading amid mixed Asian bourses. Gradually, the market picked up some traction from the lower spots as buying sentiment picked up across the board and the benchmark Nifty50 rose almost 0.81 percent to end the day in green, a bit below the 16800 level Tuesday was closed on accounts on Mahashivratri. On Wednesday, the Indian stock market tumbled in early trade amid weak GDP numbers and concerns over geopolitical tensions. Our domestic market started with a gap to the downside and gradually wobbled throughout the day until bulls emerged in the last hours of the day. However, the benchmark index corrected nearly 1.12 percent to end the day in red, slightly above the 16600 level. Market closed lower on Thursday, failing to hold earlier gains. Broader domestic markets also ended lower, with the Indian VIX down 3.8%. European stocks fell, US futures slid and oil soared to its highest level since 2008. The Indian market started trading fairly higher today, following firm global market signals after a day of huge sell-offs, but indices soon trimmed opening gains and were modestly higher Markets remained volatile and settled with a decline of over half a percent, continuing the prevailing trend. Firm global markets started an uptrend in early trading, but it didn't last long, gradually slipping lower throughout the day. Consequently, Nifty closed around the daily low and settled at 16498 down 0.65%. On the sector front, a mixed trend was observed with Energy, IT and Metals enjoying decent traction while Auto, Banking and FMCG traded lackluster. Benchmark indices ended lower with Nifty below 16,300 in the volatile session on March 4. At close, the Sensex is down 768.87 points at 54333., and the Nifty was down 252 points at 16245.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17000

There is also no relief regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine, so we are not fully out of the woods until things stabilize there. Given the higher volatility, wild swings or opening surprises on either side can wipe out leveraged traders. Therefore, we advise traders to avoid aggressive overnight betting for a while. The Nifty had recently stumbled near the 16800 level and started sliding lower. The selling pressure continued on March 4th. Consequently, the index broke the swing low of 16203 and the bottom of a down sloping channel. However, the Nifty received support in the lower area; this staged an intraday rally, but the intraday rally fizzled out near the key hourly moving averages. Still, the index managed to hold the 16200 level on a closing basis. The overall structure shows that the Nifty is trading near several support parameters and can see a recovery as long as it stays above 16000-15800 on a closing basis.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

On the downside, as long as the index trades below 16200, selling pressure is likely to continue. Below that, the corrective wave will last until 16000-15800. Technically, Nifty has formed a bearish candle on a weekly timeframe, indicating weakness in the counter. Furthermore, the index has been trading with lower highs and lower lows for the past 5 weeks, suggesting a trip south in the coming day. Additionally, the index has held below 200-DMA, further weighing on prices. A momentum indicator Stochastic and MACD on the daily chart were suggesting a negative crossover, signaling further downward movement for the index. Index may test physiological level of 16100, break below may show 15900-15700 while upside resistance stands at 16700. On the upside, Bank Nifty has support at 34500 and resistance at 35500.

NIFTY PREDICTION FOR FRIDAY MARCH 4, 2022

Market closed lower on Thursday, failing to hold earlier gains. Broader domestic markets also ended lower, with the Indian VIX down 3.8%. European stocks fell, US futures slid and oil soared to its highest level since 2008. The Indian market started trading fairly higher today, following firm global market signals after a day of huge sell-offs, but indices soon trimmed opening gains and were modestly higher Markets remained volatile and settled with a decline of over half a percent, continuing the prevailing trend. Firm global markets started an uptrend in early trading, but it didn't last long, gradually slipping lower throughout the day. Consequently, Nifty closed around the daily low and settled at 16498 down 0.65%. On the sector front, a mixed trend was observed with Energy, IT and Metals enjoying decent traction while Auto, Banking and FMCG traded lackluster.

However, as FIIs are relentless sellers, another correction cannot be ruled out. Investors could start nibbling on quality stocks that have corrected disproportionately. The Nifty50 formed an undecided doji candle on the daily chart on Wednesday. the 50-pack index to find support in the 16450-16400 range while seeing resistance near the 16650 level. If the index sustains above the 16475 level, the sideways consolidation should continue with a positive bias.

Resistance: 16800, 16900, 17000

Support: 16700, 16600, 16500

NIFTY PREDICTION FOR THURSDAY MARCH 3, 2022

Markets traded volatile, losing over a percent on weak global signals. News of a deepening war between Russia and Ukraine prompted a weak start, made worse by a sharp rise in crude oil prices. However, a rebound in the last hour of trading pared some losses. Consequently, the Nifty index settled around 16605; down 1.12%. Most sector indices closed lower in line with the benchmark while broader indices traded mixed. Equity markets continued their weakness as various developments on the Russia-Ukraine front caused crude oil and other commodity prices to spiral. Indian markets gapped lower in line with global peers as various sanctions imposed on Russia threatened to cut off supplies of crude oil and various other commodities. Towards the end, however, the market rallied on reports of a second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, scheduled for Wednesday evening, raising hopes of some relief. Volatility is likely to remain high in the near term given the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, upcoming state election results and the Federal Reserve Board meeting. Additionally, the market would be keeping an eye on developments in the Russia-Ukraine talks. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict is prolonged and leads to increased energy prices for a longer period of time, this can have an impact on margins and earnings. We expect Nifty's weakness to continue until it is below its crucial 200 DEMA of ~16750. On the upside, however, last week's low of 16200 could serve as strong support. Traders need to be wary of sharp moves either way, while investors can take advantage of the current decline to gradually add quality blue chip companies to their portfolios. Markets have gradually declined in the face of unpredictable intraday swings, but the dip is more severe across the board. We think volatility will continue and the proposed weekly schedule would add further volatility on Thursday. Among the sectors, metals and energy stocks look solid while others are watching mixed trends. Participants have no choice but to adjust their positions with the trend and prefer a hedged approach. Technically, market texture has turned weak with a sell-on-rise structure after Nifty slipped below its 200-DMA. However, Nifty is attempting to gain a foothold in the 16450-16250 zone but bulls confidence will only be back above the 17000 level, if Nifty slips below 16200 then 15900 will be the next key support level. Bank Nifty is trading near a key psychological support level of 35000 and if it manages to hold this level we can expect brief coverage towards the 36300-36700 zone while it slides below the 35000 level then becomes 34500 be the next key support level. Short term traders should remain cautious given the many uncertainties as to where 16300 should be their trading stop loss for long positions. Investors should focus on sectors such as capital goods, infrastructure, real estate, banks, etc. that are facing the domestic economy.

Resistance: 16600, 16700, 16800

Support: 16500, 16400, 16300

NIFTY PREDICTION FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 2, 2022

It was a highly volatile trading day and benchmark indices fluctuated wildly before finishing higher despite lingering concerns over the ongoing battle between Russia and Ukraine. A major concern for India has been rising crude oil prices, which will increase the bill for oil imports and subsequently trigger a surge in inflation. The Nifty opened a gap to the downside on Feb 28 only to attract new buying support near 16450-16400. The index then recovered over the course of the day. On the upside, it tested the crucial 16800 barrier that constrained the upside for the day. The intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine as well as new sanctions against Russia by the world powers weighed on western markets. Despite opening on a negative tone, domestic indices staged a strong recovery, buoyed by metals stocks and positive Asian markets. Metals stocks rallied on hopes that curbing Russian exports would help Indian steelmakers capture export market share. Domestic investors are eagerly awaiting the release of Q3 GDP data later today, which is forecast at 6.5% vs. 8.4% in Q2. Benchmark indices ended February 28 for the second straight day on positive buying in metals, oil & gas, energy and IT stocks. To finish, the Sensex was up 388 points, to 56247 and the Nifty was up 135 points, to 16793.

Technically, the Nifty has formed a long bullish candle that is largely positive. the Nifty index has formed a long green candle and sustained above the Lower Bollinger Band formation but still trading below the 200-Days SMA. Moreover, on an hourly chart, the index shifted above 21-SMA, which suggests further recovery. A momentum indicator RSI has pulled up from the oversold zone & Stochastic witnessed a positive crossover, which indicates short covering for the near term. Currently the market is trading between 16550-16750 price ranges. In the last hour of trading it broke above the 16775 resistance but it would be interesting to see if the index would be able to hold the level. For traders, 16650 would be the immediate support level to watch out for and above that the index could continue momentum to 16800-16900. However, a move away from 16750 could potentially trigger another corrective wave to 16600-16500.

Resistance: 16800, 16900, 17000

Support: 16700, 16600, 16500