HOW WILL BE THE NIFTY & BANKNIFTY MOVE IN MAY 2022 ??

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May is here! Over the next few days, you’ll once again hear the well-known adage in the financial world: ‘Sell in May and Go Away.’Well, this time around, this adage is likely to get far more attention than it deserves because of the miserable performance of the equity markets across the globe.Markets are getting sold on every decent bounce. Furthermore, factors such as subdued Q4 corporate earnings, rising inflation, hawkish central banks, the resurgence of Covid cases in China, and high commodity prices are adding fuel to the fire.So, the million-dollar question now is: Should you follow the adage in 2022? To get a logical answer, we should look back into history and check the performance of markets in the month of May. Before moving on to the data-crunching part, let us first understand from where this ‘Sell in May and go away’ adage is said to have originated?

The Origin

interestingly, this saying has its roots not in Wall Street but in London's financial district. The original saying Sell in May and go away, come back on St Legers Day refers to a horse race. Yes, you heard right! The saying has its origins in a famous horse race! The St. Leger Stakes is one of England's most important horse races and takes place at the end of September. London traders would sell their shares, enjoy their summer and return to the market after the St Leger race. The idea is based on seasonality, and with this strategy traders are only invested in the stock market for about seven months of the year (October to April). Now that we know the history of the proverb, we can turn to data processing and dig deeper.

Nifty 50 Performance in May

As you can see in the 20-year chart above, Nifty50s performance for the month of May 11th was positive, so the data is skewed a bit in favor of the bulls. However, if we calculate the average return for the month of May, it's around 1.01% gain. So from this data, there isn't much evidence to support the advice that you should sell and walk away in May. On the contrary, if you review the numbers since 2013, we see that Nifty 50 has only delivered a negative return once between 2013 and 2021, and that was also in 2020.

Now let's look at the performance of Banknifty for the month of May from 2006 to 2021.

The average gain delivered by Bank Nifty is about 3.24%  in the month of May since 2006, with maximum gain seen in the year 2009 and the worst performance in 2020.More so, a similar trend is seen in Bank Nifty as well, as the index has given negative returns only once (in 2020) between 2014 and 2021.So, the data above clearly reflects that ‘Sell in May and go away’ might have proved to be a fruitful strategy in some cases, but not all the time.Hence, it is better not to rely solely on an adage based on a horse race and talk to your investment advisor about creating long-term investing strategies that will help you grow your money without having to rely on outside noise.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 6 MAY 2022

After the May 4 knee-jerk reaction to the Reserve Bank of India's unscheduled interest rate hike that sent Indian equity markets reeling, the Fed's announcement of a 50 basis point rate hike prompted a recovery rally in global equities. US markets ended yesterday's trading higher and Asian markets reacted positively to early morning trading. However, they reduced wins and ended on a flat note. The Indian markets were no different and had a strong open in the morning but volatility crept in during the post-lunch session on profit booking as the markets pared all of their gains and ended up where they started the morning. The Sensex ended flat with a marginal gain of 33 points at 55702, while the Nifty ended the day with a small gain of 5 points at 16,682. Fear of an aggressive rate hike by the US Federal Reserve has been the main driver of global volatility over the past few days. The Fed's decision to remain less hawkish with a 50 basis point rate hike downplayed investor concerns and helped global markets recover. Sensex had a gap to the upside of 586 points at 56255 points. It continued to rally to create an intraday of 56566 within the first hour of trading. However, sentiment changed and turned the tide, leading to a wild swing of 953 points from the daily high as the market touched a daily low of 55614.  The Nifty opened with a gap of 177 points higher at 16854 to hit a daily high of 16945 before falling 294 points to a daily low of 16652. Markets gave back most of their early gains on profit taking in real estate stocks, pharmaceuticals and PSU bank stocks. The initial momentum did not last as investors turned risk-free amid worries of high inflation and the prospect of further rate cuts that would dampen future growth. Another factor is that investors are withdrawing funds from the secondary markets and pouring them into LIC's ongoing IPO. With all major events behind us, the focus would return to earnings and the upcoming macroeconomic data. We reiterate our bearish bias on Nifty and suggest continuing the sell-on-rise approach. Stocks, on the other hand, present opportunities on both sides, so traders should adjust their positions accordingly. Technically, after a sharp decline, the Nifty has formed an inside bearish candle and is also holding a lower top formation on intraday charts, suggesting further correction from current levels. As long as the index trades below 16800 the corrective wave should continue and below that the Nifty could reach the 16650-16550 levels. On the downside, 16650 and 16500 would act as immediate hurdles. Above 16900, the market could reach the 17000 level.

Resistance: 16800, 16950, 17100

Support: 16650, 16500, 16350

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 5 MAY 2022

Market crashes after RBI's surprise ~2% rate hike. Nifty 50 ended today at -2.29% and Sensex at -2.29%. The RBI's monetary policy committee hiked interest rates by 40 basis points, citing persistent inflationary pressures in the economy. With the rapidly changing geopolitical scenario continuing to put pressure on the global supply chain and commodity prices, domestic policy rates were expected to adjust to the changing scenario. Therefore, while not unexpected as the RBI governor had already voiced concerns about rising inflation, the rate hike is expected to have its impact on the housing market amid rising input costs. In a surprise move, the central bank hiked interest rates to keep runaway inflation in check. There was a sense of déjà vu when the RBI announced policy measures outside of its regular calendar of meetings, as it did in May 2020. The increase in the repo rate aims to alleviate high inflationary pressures. While raising the CRR aims to ease loose monetary policy and drain excess liquidity from the system. The governor's observation of food inflation is a cause for concern. RBI's assurance that next steps will be calibrated and consideration of economic recovery offer positive direction, along with policy stance kept unchanged at Accommodative.

The industry has benefited greatly from the low interest rates over the past two years. This rate hike will result in higher PMIs for home loans. However, we believe improved homebuyer attitudes, preference for home ownership and strong wage growth will continue to support the housing market. Monetary policy remains accommodative and given the easing of the pandemic and economic growth, we expect consumer demand to remain buoyant in the short-term. Although the rate hike was expected, the sudden announcement of a 40 basis point hike in the repo rate along with a 50 basis point hike in the CRR in response to rising inflation spooked markets and prompted a violent sell-off. Global markets are also trading cautiously ahead of the forthcoming Fed meeting as a rise of more than 50 basis points will prolong the current consolidation phase. Finally, as mentioned, we are watching the 7.35 level on the 10-year benchmark. The level was taken today due to a surprise hike in repo rates by the RBI. The next technical level to watch for is 7.60% when the close is above the 7.35% level. By raising the CRR, the RBI is forcing the banking system to hold additional liquidity in reserves instead of lending it to companies at lower interest rates. Around Rs 80,000 cr will not be available for lending by the banking system from May 21, 2022. Current liquidity in the system is approximately Rs 7 lakh crores and funding costs are likely to increase. We see overall incremental lending rise above tenor after RBI's move today. Benchmark indices lost over 2% on May 4 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked interest rates. At the close the Sensex was down 1306 points to 55669 and the Nifty down 391 points to 16677. I would agree that the central bank's credibility has been fairly restored. It's absolutely well timed and now the forward guidance is pretty clear... I expect we'll be back to pre-pandemic levels of 5.15% by the end of the year. We used to be closer to five percent, so this is definitely a bit higher than we used to think. Investors should be cautious in these markets and use these declines to build new positions in fundamentally sound stocks. Immediate support and resistance for Nifty are at 16,500 and 17,000 respectively.

 Resistance: 16800, 16950, 17100

Support: 16650, 16500, 16350

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 4 MAY 2022

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Early losses were largely a reaction to Wall Street's slump on Friday, but markets recouped most of their early losses as investors covered some short selling ahead of Tuesday's trading holiday. The robust GST collections for April also calmed the nerves of investors already facing the brunt of the ongoing war and volatile oil prices. Investors are also eagerly awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, scheduled for later this week. Benchmark Indies ended the volatile May 2nd session on a flat note, with selling seen in the capital goods, autos and IT indices. At the close, the Sensex was up 84 points to 56975 and the Nifty was up 33 points to 17069.

The Nifty is holding above the 16900 level, but at the same time it is not showing sustained momentum. In short, the market is consolidating within a broad trading range of 17300 and 17400. We may not see any trending movement in the market unless it crosses above the 17500 level or breaks through the 16900 level. A close below will become negative for the market be. Also, the volatility index is well above the 20 level, which suggests that the market will break the trading range in the near future.

Resistance: 17100, 17200, 17300

Support: 16900, 16800, 16700

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REUSLT AHEAD 

2 MAY 2022 Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd,Jindal Stainles,M&M Financial

3 MAY  2022 Adani Enterprises Ltd,Godrej Properties Ltd,Hero MotoCorp Ltd,Tata Steel,Titan Company

4 MAY 2022 Deepak Nitrite,Havells India,Kotak Mahindra,TATA Cons. Prod,

5 MAY 2022 Dabur India,Exide Ind,INDUS TOWERS,Marico,TVS Motor,Voltas

6 MAY 2022 Canara Bank,Federal Bank,Tata Power

9 MAY 2022 SRF

10 MAY 2022 Cipla, Asian Paints, Gujarat Gas

11 MAY  2022 CholaFin 

12 MAY 2022 AB Capital,Tata Motors , Avanti Feeds

13 MAY 2022 Escorts , Tech Mahindra,Coromandel Engg

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17506, 17689, 18025

PIVOT POINT: 17565

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17444, 17357, 17015

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17410, 17429, 17447

PIVOT POINT: 17340

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17374, 17356, 17337

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The week started weak as indicated by SGX Nifty and in the opening trades themselves Nifty was below the psychological 17k level. The sell-off extended to test levels below 16,900 and saw a choppy intraday move within a 100 point range. Nifty eventually ended down 1.27% at 16954. US markets staged a notable overnight rebound from lower levels and continued to close well within positive territory. This lifted general sentiment on Asian stock markets On Tuesday morning. This led to a decent surge when our markets opened, which was then followed by a long consolidation. However, buying momentum picked up again in some of the heavyweight constituents towards the end of the session. As a result, Nifty rushed towards the 17200 level at the close. Wednesday’s session open was a re-creation of 22 April session, where markets had given us many promising signs the previous day, but started the day on a soft note due to global uncertainty. The correction extended in the following hours to almost test the 16950 level around mid-session. Fortunately, the bulls are not ready to give up as they pulled the markets higher again in the second half. Although there has not been a full recovery; At least Nifty managed to hold 17,000 on a closing basis. Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty rose sharply on Thursday amid broad-based buying, tracking a recovery in global markets. Financials, FMCG, IT and oil & gas stocks were the largest contributors to the gains in both benchmark indices. Broader markets also rallied, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices each up about half a percent. Globally, the war between Russia and Ukraine, Beijing's fight against rising COVID infections and the Fed's dovish tone remained in focus. Both leading indices ended the day 1.2%higher. Market ended on negative note with Nifty around 17100 on April 29 amid selling across the sectors. At close, the Sensex was down 460 points at 57060, and the Nifty was down 142 points at 17102.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17400; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

One day up, one day down is a clear sign of a directionless market. The general sentiment is somewhat cautious and in this environment we are fortunate not to repeat the corrective moves we are seeing in global markets. We reiterate that we remain hopeful until 16800 is successfully defended and there is some possibility of recovery in the coming days if nothing escalates on the global front. For the upcoming session, 17200  followed by 16,900 should be considered sacrosanct support and an attempt can be made by walking around it for a long time. On the other hand, 17500- 17700 are seen as immediate hurdles.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Participants, particularly traders, had a really tough time in the April series as the benchmark oscillated in a broader range and eventually settled with a drop of over a percent. Global factors such as the possibility of faster-than-expected Fed tightening, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the resurgence of COVID in China etc. continue to weigh on sentiment, however buying in select index majors limited the downside in the finals weeks. While the global narrative hasn't changed much yet and the start of the earnings season paints a mixed picture on the domestic front as well. Let's try to gauge what the month of May has in store for the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty and some of the stocks that look promising for position trades. It has been trading in an expanding bearish formation for the past six months and is currently hovering around the key long-term moving average support zone (200 EMA) after testing the upper band of the range around 18,150 in early April. We believe the 16,800 level would act as a make or break zone. A decisive breakdown would strengthen the bears and could result in a gradual decline towards 16,400 or below in the coming weeks. In the event of a recovery, the 18,000 zone would act as a stiff resistance. The banking index traded broadly in sync with the benchmark in April, eventually stabilizing at flat levels. It is currently trading in a congestion zone around the moving average band on the daily chart. To regain strength, the banking index should decisively retake the 37k zone, which could fuel the recovery to 38k-39500 in the following weeks. In the event of a failure below the 35,500 zone, pressure may resume, which may result in a retest of the 34,000 level.

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Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty rose sharply on Thursday amid broad-based buying, tracking a recovery in global markets. Financials, FMCG, IT and oil & gas stocks were the largest contributors to the gains in both benchmark indices. Broader markets also rallied, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices each up about half a percent. Globally, the war between Russia and Ukraine, Beijing's fight against rising COVID infections and the Fed's dovish tone remained in focus. Both leading indices ended the day 1.2%higher. The Sensex is up 701 points to 57521 and the Nifty is settling at 17,245, 206 points above its previous close. Investor’s preference is shifting to safe-haven assets due to volatile equity market and global uncertainties indicated by rising US Dollar index. FPIs are in a selling mode while domestic investors are positive and will focus on defensives like Consumption and domestic growth sectors like Infra & capital goods. Volatility is expected to continue in the short-term due to weakening global trade and we suggest investors to have rationale expectations focusing on domestic growth sectors like CAPEX, banking and defensives. The Bank Nifty Index saw some buying from lower levels last month end. However, the index is still trading below its 200-DMA, which is at the 36700 level. To resume the uptrend, the index needs to cross its 200-DMA with volume. Lower support lies in the 35700- 35500 range and a break below will result in a fresh round of selling pressure. Even after the recent correction that took Nifty below 17k on Wednesday, the stock market is expensive and there is room for correction. It's a good thing to follow the "sell in May and walk away" adage. I think that (sell and walk away in May) is generally a good thing. I'm a proponent of that even though the market is around 17k. There is room for corrections. Markets are expensive. So this might not be the worst idea in the world.

Resistance: 17300, 17400, 17500

Support: 17200, 17100, 17000

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 28 APRIL 2022

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The market continued to be gripped by high volatility after a sharp sell-off in global markets led by a heightened energy crisis and weak Chinese economic outlook, underpinned by prospects for US interest rate hikes. Investors are considering the possibility of a global slowdown due to central bank monetary tightening, China lockdown and the Russia-Ukraine war. This has led to an outflow of funds from equity markets to safe havens.  Bears gripped Dalal Street on Wednesday forcing benchmark domestic equity market indices lower. BSE Sensex lost 537 points to trade at 56819 while NSE Nifty 50 lost 162 points or 0.94% to end trading at 17038. India VIX the volatility index rose 7.4% to settle at 20 level. Bank Nifty lost 1.03%. As in recent months, the outlook for FY23 earnings has continued to deteriorate. Increasing news of restrictions on Indonesian palm oil exports would pose input cost challenges for all FMCG companies. This sector faces the highest risk of earnings downgrades this quarter. Similarly, the pressure on fuel and raw material costs would also affect the earnings of cement and durable goods companies. So far, the trend of the fourth-quarter earnings season has pointed to disappointments and violent stock reactions to earnings shortfalls. Banks and resource companies are relatively sheltered from disappointment but are also consensus overweight positions for market participants. In the short term, Nifty remains in a corrective phase with resistance at 17315. For the medium term, we remain broadly positive and recommend dips. We see value in select financials and energy stocks, while IT stocks are expected to trade on a negative bias. Benchmark index Nifty closed another trading day with range. The index remained below 200DMA throughout the trading session. The daily RSI is in a bearish crossover and falling. Going forward, range bound trades could continue in the short term. Support is seen at 16950/16850 while resistance is seen at 17300 on the upper end.  The Bank Nifty index remained under selling pressure after a gap-down open. The index on the daily chart has formed a doji candlestick, indicating indecisiveness in the market. Index downside support stands at 35500 and a break below will trigger further downside. The upside resistance stands at 37200 and just above that the upward movement just resumes.

Resistance: 17100 17200 17300

Support: 16900 16800 16700

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 27 APRIL 2022

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Nifty rebounded on Tuesday after two days of losses amid strength in most global markets following a rally in Wall Street growth stocks. Broad-based buying drove the leading indices higher, with financials, IT and oil & gas stocks making the biggest moves for both Sensex and Nifty50. Investors were awaiting more financial results from India Inc for clues, with HDFC Life and Bajaj Finance due to release figures later in the day. Globally, news of the Russia-Ukraine war and rising COVID cases in parts of the world remained in focus. Nifty gapped higher on April 26th forming a bullish island reversal pattern.. A low volume day accompanied by a positive Pre-Declination Ratio means that FPIs were not aggressive on the sell side, but at the same time traders decided to focus more on the large and mid-caps. It is important that the Nifty does not fall below 16900 lest the upward movement of the pattern be negated. A low volume day accompanied by a positive Pre-Declination Ratio means that FPIs were not aggressive on the sell side, but at the same time traders decided to focus more on the large and mid-caps. 17250-17355 could be the band for the Nifty in the short term. Nifty Bank has potential to go all the way to 37000. A better strategy is to buy 37000 call option and get it close to Rs 65-70 and hold till expiry for level can be Rs 150-200.

Resistance: 17250, 17350, 17450

Support: 17150, 17050, 16950

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 26 APRIL 2022

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The markets started the week cautiously, continuing the prevailing consolidation phase. Weak global cues triggered a gap-down open in the benchmark, but lift from select index majors, particularly from the banking package, limited the downside. Most sector indices closed lower with broader indices also falling in the 1.8% to 2.2% range. Markets have seen unpredictable swings across a broader spectrum, mainly in response to global signals. Also, the lack of internal support adds to the participants' concerns. We therefore reiterate our cautious stance and suggest limiting leveraged positions. The Nifty had attempted a bounce for the past week to fill a gap area on the daily chart. The index faced a new round of selling near the top of this gap area, from where the index started to slide again. The Nifty rolled further down on April 25. It has again created a gap area on the daily chart today close to 17050-17150. This will now act as a short term resistance zone and any attempt to fill this gap area can be treated as a new short selling opportunity. The overall structure suggests that the index is likely to stay on the downtrend in the short-term and is likely to break the swing low of 16850 and drop towards 16750 in the short-term.

Resistance: 17000, 17100, 17200

Support: 16900, 16800, 16700

NIFTY WEEKLY PREDICTION & TRADING TIPS FOR 25 APRIL TO 29 APRIL 2022

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17506, 17689, 18025

PIVOT POINT: 17565

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17444, 17357, 17015

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17410, 17429, 17447

PIVOT POINT: 17340

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17374, 17356, 17337

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

After four days of massive hiatus, our markets started the week miserably, factoring in unfavorable global signals. The weakness extended throughout the day with the Nifty slipping further below 17100. Fortunately, some recovery was seen at lower levels and on a modest recovery towards the end the Nifty ended the session down over 1.70%, a bit below the 17200 level. Tuesday's session started on a positive note as indicated by the SGX Nifty earlier this morning. However, the markets immediately lost their lead in minutes. After that, we saw a long consolidation among the key indices, with individual pockets moving on their own. As we entered the last hour and a half of trading, Nifty surged almost to the daily high; but suddenly the market crashed and before anyone knew it all the intermediate supports were destroyed one by one. Selling was so intense that towards the end we almost tested the 16800 level. Finally, the adjusted close was just above 16950. The mayhem of the last hour on Tuesday was followed by a modest gap on Wednesday, which opened on a spectacular overnight rally in US stocks. Around mid-session, Nifty even proceeded to retake the 17200 mark. However, as we re-entered the last few hours of the session, the market started to get a bit timid. Fortunately, it wasn't any closer to weakness on Tuesday as Nifty maintained its position well within positive territory to close for percentage gains. Wednesday's break was followed by a decent gap to the upside on Thursday on positive indications from most global peers. Throughout the day, overall attendance from some of the missing heavyweights such as IT, autos and banking surged. As a result, we saw good sustained bullishness throughout the day to finally close the penultimate weekly decline around 17400, adding another 1.50% to the bull kitty. The market indices snapped out of its two-day winning streak and ended over lower on Friday weighed by market heavyweights Infosys, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. The Sensex fell 714 points to settle at 57197 while the Nifty declined 220 points to end at 17171.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17400; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

Indian equity markets have been volatile over the past seven months, seeing wide swings on both sides amid headwinds from geopolitical tensions, high commodity prices and record inflation. Bulls are looking for corporate earnings reports to take focus off the inflation spurt. Nifty is expected to consolidate between 16500 and 18500 over the next few months.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Markets reversed yesterday's gain, shedding nearly a percent and a half on weak global leads. The hawkish statement from the US Federal Reserve depressed sentiment around the world, including in our markets. The benchmark attempted to erase some of its losses midway after the gap-down start, but selling pressure in the second half pushed the index to daily lows. Finally, the Nifty Index closed at 17171; down 1.3%. In line with trend, most industry indices closed lower, with metals, banks and healthcare being the top losers. Markets will react to the ICICI Bank figures in early trading on Monday. Additionally, global alerts such as updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and China's COVID situation will also remain on attendees' radars. The drop in the Nifty index has faded hopes of a directional move and we may see further consolidation ahead. Among all, participants should focus more on overnight stock selection and risk management.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 22 APRIL 2022

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The bulls came back strong today after quite a long wait, helped by the energy sector, which is seeing robust gross refining margins. The Indian stock market closed positive on April 21st, supported by buying across all sectors. To finish, the Sensex was up 874 points, to 57911 and the Nifty was up 256 points, to 17392. Approximately 2252 stocks are up, 1089 stocks are down, and 96 stocks are flat. Almost all sector indices, led by autos, traded in the green as the volatility index cooled. Previously, the 17200-17000 range has seen crucial moves on both sides. The last break down and the recent break up in this area has resulted in a strong follow-up move in the index on both sides. Having recently bounced back from near the 17500 level and the emerging strength of upside momentum suggests there is significant upside potential from here. Nifty's short-term trend remains positive. A sustained move above the immediate 17500-17600 resistance could open the next upside levels around 17700-18000 in the near term. Immediate support lies at 17200. On the derivatives front, the highest call OI is 17800 strike followed by 18000 strike, while on the put side the highest OI is 17200 strike followed by 17000 strike. Technically, the refined index has confirmed the breakout of the bullish Harami candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating a reversal move in the index. Additionally, a momentum indicator RSI (14) & stochastics saw a positive crossover, supporting the immediate trend. On the hourly chart, the refined index is also holding above 200-HMA, indicating a positive sideways movement. Currently the index has support at 17200 while resistance is at 17500 . The Bank Nifty Index formed a bullish reversal candle showing 36500 levels on the daily chart to act as a buffer to the downside. Momentum oscillators have also shown a reversal on the lower timeframe, confirming a pullback towards the 37000-37500 levels. Traders should maintain a buying approach with 36800 acting as immediate support.

Resistance: 17500, 17600, 17700

Support: 17300, 17200, 17000

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 21 APRIL 2022

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The mayhem of the last hour on Tuesday was followed by a modest gap on Wednesday, April 20, 2022, which opened on a spectacular overnight rally in US stock markets. Around mid-session, Nifty even proceeded to retake the 17200 mark. However, as we re-entered the last few hours of the session, the market started to get a bit timid. Fortunately, it wasn't any closer to weakness on Tuesday as Nifty maintained its position well within positive territory to close for percentage gains. A pullback rally in global markets lifted sentiment as benchmark indices traded higher. Nifty has regained his level of 17000. Among sectors, the Nifty Auto Index outperformed the rally by over two percent. While metals and media stocks saw a technical sell-off. The benchmark index Nifty showed tremendous resilience today; but Banking sulks throughout the session. Therefore, the Nifty could not stay behind the stable wall of 17200.

Technically, after today's rally, the Nifty is still trading below its 200-day SMA, which is largely negative. On daily charts, Nifty has formed a small bullish candle inside the body and on intraday charts. Nifty consistently finds support near 17050. As for direction, the medium term trend is still down. But pullback rally continuation is not ruled out if the Nifty manages to trade above 17050. For traders, 17050 would serve as a trend maker above which Nifty could rally to 17250-17350. However, below 17050 the uptrend would be vulnerable. Below that, the chances of reaching the 16950-16900 level would improve. Fortunately we are convincingly back above 17k and as such any positivity from global peers or our banking division would bring strength back to our market. As for levels, 17200 17300 remains a high hurdle and only a sustained move above it would result in strong momentum for the heavyweights. On the upside, 17000 remains a sacrosanct support. Given the general caution, we advise traders not to trade aggressively and proceed with a stock-specific approach.

Resistance: 18150, 18200, 18250

Support: 18000, 17950, 17900

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 20 APRIL 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17252	17330	17422	17160	17082	16990	16912
Fibonacci	17225	17265	17330	17160	17095	17055	16990
Camarilla	17189	17205	17220	17160	17158	17143	17127

 Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty fluctuated between gains and losses on Tuesday amid choppy trading, tracking mixed movements in global markets. Losses in financials and select IT stocks dragged the leading indices lower, although gains in auto, metals and oil & gas stocks provided some support. Investors awaited more quarterly earnings reports from India Inc for clues, a day after Mindtree released a strong set of financial results covering the period between January and March. Globally, news of the war between Russia and Ukraine and rising COVID infections in China stayed on investors' radars. We have witnessed chaos in the markets for the past 30 minutes. Benchmark indices corrected nearly 1.5% today on weak global leads. In the current war, things seem to be getting worse between Russia and Ukraine. The Nifty started the session on April 19 on a positive note but failed to build on early gains. Despite several attempts throughout the day, the index failed to break above the 20 HMA and 40 DEMA. These moving averages prompted the bears to act, leading to a sharp decline towards the end of the session. In the highly volatile session on April 19th, the benchmark indices closed lower with Nifty closing below the 17000 mark. At the close, the Sensex was up 703 points, at 56463 and the Nifty was up 215 points,at 16958. 

we advised you to stay invested in quality stocks and avoid stocks with weak fundamentals in the coming days. Investors should remain cautious and hold enough liquidity to add quality stocks whenever they dip. For Nifty, 16650 will act as a very strong support if we could break the 16600 level and if that level is also broken then the next stop will be around 16500 level. On the upside, 17050 acts as a very strong resistance. If Nifty breaks above these levels, we may see 17100 to 17350 levels. For the banking index, 36150 will act as a very strong support, if this level breaks, next support will be at 35800 levels and then 35600 level is possible. On the upside 36200 will act as a strong hurdle for the banking index, if this level is broken the next strong resistance is around 36500, after that 36800 levels are possible. Consequently, the Nifty broke the 200 DMA and the 16800 level on a closing basis. The overall structure indicates that the selling pressure may continue. Therefore, the index is expected to continue falling towards 16800-16600 in the short-term. On the upside, today's high of 17300 will now act as a key short-term barrier.

Resistance: 17251, 17329, 17121

Support: 17081, 16989, 16911

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Markets started the week subdued in continuation of the prevailing consolidation phase and ended the session with a significant loss of almost two percent. After a gap down open amid weak global cues, the benchmark trades bearish throughout the day. Lower-than-expected results from heavyweights such as Infosys and HDFC Bank also weighed on sentiment. Consequently, the Nifty closed 1.7% lower at 17173 levels. The broader mid-cap and small-cap markets also ended lower, down 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively. Sector indices showed a mixed trend with IT and Banking being the biggest laggards while Auto, FMCG and Energy were the winners. We believe global clues as well as the outcome of the Q4 results will continue to add additional volatility in the coming sessions. As such, we remain cautious on the markets and recommend traders to hedge their position. The Nifty index gapped down on the weak global cues and settled at 17173 down 1.73%, while the Bank Nifty index ended at 36729 down 1.96%. The India VIX market volatility index rose 9% on the day.