NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 17 JAN 2023

Markets started the week subdued, losing nearly half a percent amid mixed signals. The initial gains evaporated in no time and Nifty traded with a negative bias to the end. Meanwhile, a mixed trend on the sector front kept participants on their toes, with PSU Banking and IT climbing higher while Metals and Auto fell. The sluggish sentiment continued as markets moved in a narrow range with a bearish bias. Investors are taking a cautious stance as the global macroeconomic scenario remains bleak, while FIIs continued to sell domestic stocks month-to-date, dampening market sentiment. In the event of muted Q3 results, weak budget expectations and a drop in global interest rates, the market expects high volatility as these scenarios wrap the future trend. The decline in WPI inflation to 4.95% and CPI inflation to 5.72% in December shows a steady downward trend in price levels. The importance of this downtrend is that it will allow the MPC to pause after another, say, 25bp rate hike in February. Therefore, higher interest rates will not affect the growth recovery currently taking place in the economy. Benchmark indices closed lower for the second straight session on Jan. 16. At the close, the Sensex was down 168 points, to 60092 and the Nifty was down 61 points, to 17894. 

Consequently, the index jumped higher and opened a gap on January 16th. However, the index stumbled near the top of the pattern and lagged in the pattern. We believe that 17850 would act as a sacrosanct support zone for traders and a fresh round of selling is only possible after 17850 is rejected. Below that, the index could slip as low as 17800 -17700. On the upside, 17950 would be the trend reversal level for the bulls and above that the index could rally to 18000 -18200. The Nifty has seen a short-term consolidation over the past few weeks. In terms of price patterns, it has formed a triangle on the daily chart. By the end of last week, the Nifty had formed a base near the bottom of the pattern. Until the index trades above 17850 on a closing basis, the pattern is expected to eventually break out to the upside. The Nifty is set for a larger bounce once it breaks the 18200 short-term barrier. Technically, the market is consolidating within the 17800 to 18200 price range. On the daily charts, the Nifty has formed a bearish candle near the 100-day SMA, which is largely negative. The markets are subject to increasing selling pressure, which shows uncertainty among participants despite favorable signals. We think it prudent to limit positions in the prevailing scenario and wait for a decisive breakout of the 17800-18200 zone at Nifty.

Resistance: 18050, 18150, 18250

Support: 17950, 17850, 17750

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 16 JANUARY TO 20 JANUARY 2023

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 18000, 18200, 18400

PIVOT POINT: 17800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17700, 17600, 17500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

We started the week on a pleasant note from 09 January 2023 and then extended gains in the initial hours. Around the mid-session, the Nifty hastened towards the 18100 mark. However, a small bout of profit booking at the start of the second half dragged index back to 18000. Fortunately, the buying resumed in the final hour to reclaim 18100 on a closing basis. The Tuesday 10 January 2023 morning opening was on a muted note but disappointing set of numbers from TCS had already dented the sentiments within this heavyweight space. This had a rub off effect on other major pockets as well, which resulted in a massive selling pressure right from the word go. As the day progressed, the selling augmented in RELIANCE and even in most of the banking counters. As a result of this, we pared down all Monday’s gains and Nifty was back to 17900 by shedding slightly over a percent from previous close. We had a sluggish start for the Wednesday 11 January 2023 in line with SGX Nifty. In the initial trade, the nervousness dragged our benchmark lower to almost test the 17800. However, the banking space provided the much needed helping hand at lower levels along with few heavyweights IT names. We did see complete recovery in the first half and in fact for a brief period, Nifty traded in the positive terrain. However, lack of follow up buying at higher levels poured water on this recovery. Eventually, Nifty ended the session with negligible loss a tad below 17900. Our markets started the Thursday 12 January 2023 session marginally in the green despite SGX was indicating a decent gap up. Without wasting much of a time, the bears resumed their work at office and hence, we drifted lower as the day progressed. In this course of action, Nifty not only sneaked below Wednesday’s low but also went on to challenge the recent swing low of 17774. Fortunately, the expiry factor played out well around low and as a result, the oversold market gave a modest recovery in the latter half to minimize the damage to a great extent. India equities were higher at the close on Friday 13 January 2023, Nifty 50 gained 0.55%, while the Sensex index gained 0.51%. Sensex ended with a gain of 300 points after a three-day losing streak to close above 60000, at 60261. Nifty also added almost 100 points to end at 17956. US CPI data for the month of December fell to 6.5%, which is leading to expectation of less aggressive interest rate hikes by US Fed going ahead. On the domestic front, CPI inflation further eased to 5.72% in Dec, while IIP growth improved to 7.1% in Nov’22.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

The resistance is visible at 18200, whereas on the lower end, support is visible at 17700. Any breakout in either direction would create a directional trend in the market.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The Nifty, in the week gone by, witnessed sharp swings in both the directions & ultimately posted a positive weekly close. It has formed a Doji pattern on the weekly chart. For the last few weeks, the index is trading above the 20 WMA, which has resulted in a Triangle pattern formation on the daily chart. After a recent base formation near the lower end of the pattern, the Nifty witnessed smart recovery on January 13.  Technically, on weekly charts the Nifty has formed a long legged Doji candlestick formation. For the next few trading sessions, the 100-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 17800 would act as sacrosanct support levels. A pullback formation above the same could drive the index to 20-day SMA or 18100. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index till 18,200. On the other hand, a fresh round of selling is possible only after the dismissal of 17,800 and below the same, the index could slip till 17800-17,600. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a doji-like pattern, which signifies indecision. However, the Nifty sustained below the 50 EMA on the daily timeframe, confirming an ongoing bearish trend.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 13 JAN 2023

FIIs continue to sell Indian equities in search of cheaper investment opportunities. Uncertainty over upcoming domestic and US inflation figures kept the domestic market unstable, although western peers remained optimistic. Benchmark indices ended lower in the volatile Jan 12 session. Markets traded volatile and closed marginally lower on the weekly expiration day. After the flat start, the tone was negative for most of the session, but the rebound in the final hours cut losses. The Sensex fell 147 points to 59958 and the Nifty fell 37 points, to 17858. The majority of sector indices traded parallel to the benchmark and ended lower, with pressure from big energy and banking groups weighing on sentiment. The markets will react to the IT majors viz. Infosys and HCL Technologies numbers in early trading on Friday. Additionally, the reaction of global markets to US inflation will also be on the radar. The domestic market remained volatile as investors anxiously awaited gains from other IT majors after a cautious warning from TCS.

On the benchmark front, we believe the prevailing battle around 17850  in Nifty is about to end. In the meantime, the focus should be on sector/stock specific opportunities while keeping an eye on position size. World stocks held on to modest gains on Thursday as they were cautiously optimistic that US inflation data due tonight will confirm inflation is slowing and pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue sharply raising interest rates is easing. , but later recovered well. The past two days have witnessed rallies from daily lows, although selling pressures are building at higher levels. Nifty could continue higher once it surpasses 18000. The Bank Nifty Index experienced a volatile trading session on the weekly expiry day and this trend is likely to continue in the near term. To gain control, the bulls need to clear the immediate hurdle of 42700 where fresh calls are visible. The bears are riding the upper hand and if the index breaks through 41700, the downside will accelerate.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400           

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900 

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 12 JAN 2023

The market ended unchanged during the extremely volatile session on Wednesday, January 11th. At the close the Sensex was down 9 pips to 60105 and the Nifty down 18 pips to 17895. While markets were range bound, selected bouts of intraday volatility continued to keep investors at bay. The Federal Reserve Chairman's recent speech also signaled no moderation in his rate hike approach, which hurt investor sentiment. Investors remained cautious ahead of the inflation data release, although sentiment was upbeat as global peers attempted multiple rallies in between. Indian CPI for December is expected to remain flat, while US CPI is expected to cool further from November's level of 7.1%. The inexorable selling of FIIs due to the premium valuation of the domestic market weighs on the domestic market. The Bank Nifty index enjoyed a volatile trading session but managed to hold the immediate 42,000 support level. Participants are struggling to deal with the prevailing volatility amid the corrective phase and we do not expect relief anytime soon, citing upcoming events & ongoing earnings season. Currently the market is witnessing non-directional activity and perhaps traders are waiting for the breakout on both sides. The Nifty has seen strong swings in both directions, which is part of the near-term consolidation process. In terms of price patterns, the fluctuations over the past few sessions have resulted in a triangular pattern formation. The Nifty received support on the underside as it neared the bottom of the pattern. 17850 is a key support on the downside. Unless this breaks on a closing basis, the index is expected to bounce back. On the higher side, the immediate hurdle is 17950, beyond which 18000-18100 can be tested in the near term. On the 2-hour chart, the triangle pattern is visible in the 18100-17800 range. We can expect a high level of volatility within this range as the India VIX is also showing above 15 levels. Prices are expected to fluctuate in both directions until and unless they experience a break on either side of the triangle pattern. We therefore reiterate our view of limiting positions and favoring hedged trades. Investors, on the other hand, should view this decline as a buying opportunity and gradually build up quality stocks on dips. Banknifty is likely to remain volatile in the upcoming session and a break below 41500 will accelerate the move down. The upper end of the middle resistance zone is seen at 42300-42500 and short coverage is expected towards the 42800 level.          

Resistance: 17950, 18050, 18150

Support: 17850, 17750, 17650

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 11 JAN 2023

Markets plummeted lower, losing nearly 1%, continuing the prevailing correction phase. After the initial downtrend, the Nifty index gradually declined throughout the session, engulfing the movement of the last trading session. Markets took another hit ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powells' speech and Nifty slid sharply from 18100 as investors weighed hawkish comments from two Federal Reserve policymakers that countered hopes that the US Federal Reserve could reverse aggressive monetary tightening. The decline was widespread, with banks, metals, real estate and IT among the top losers. The broader indices also came under pressure and each lost almost half %. Nifty gave up gains from the previous session on January 10th, which was dragged down by weak global cues. After hitting a daily low at 2:45 p.m., Nifty recovered weakly to close 1.03% or 187 points lower at 17914. Trading sentiment has been very weak and most of the sluggish external factors are prompting investors to book gains on a regular basis. At the close, the Sensex was down 631 points, to 60115 and the Nifty was down 187 points, to 17914. Technically, the Nifty has formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts, suggesting further weakness from current levels. For bulls, 17950 would be the key level to watch out for and above that the index could retest the 18000-18200 level dragging the index down to 17800-17600. Yesterday's bullish harami was not confirmed and sellers turned aggressive today. Nifty has not reacted to bullish movements in the international markets for the past few days. It's a matter of time before that happens. Expect Nifty to be volatile in the coming days. The Bank Nifty index experienced selling pressures throughout the trading session, ending near the daily low ahead of the Fed Chair's speech. The index faces stiff resistance on the upside at the 43000 level where most of the open interest is building on the call side. The downside is supported at 42500 and if it breaks further selling pressure will be directed towards the 42000 -41500 zone which will be the last line of defense for bulls.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400           

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900 

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 10 JAN 2023

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After three straight days of losing streak, Indian markets staged a bull run on Monday, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 each up over 1%. Both Sensex and Nifty have surpassed their psychological marks of 60,000 and 18,000 respectively. Sensex rose 846 points to close at 60747. Nifty rose 241 points to close at 18101. India's volatility index fell 2.5%. Wall Street rose on anticipation of a less aggressive Federal Reserve as wage growth slowed and service activity slowed, fueling bets on easing inflation. In addition, higher-than-expected payrolls growth in December raised the possibility of a softer landing for the US economy. These gains were also absorbed by the domestic market, with IT being the biggest gainer ahead of the sector earnings release as benign US economic activity boosted sector optimism. The Nifty, technically having strong bullish candle on the daily charts and a promising reversal formation are suggesting further upside from the current levels. For bulls, 18050 would be the sacrosanct support zone and above that the pullback formation will last until 18225-18275. On the upside, the uptrend below 18050 would be vulnerable and the index might retest the 18000-17900 level.

Resistance: 18150, 18200, 18250

Support: 18050, 18000, 17950

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 9 JANUARY TO 13 JANUARY 2023

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 18000, 18200, 18400

PIVOT POINT: 17800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17700, 17600, 17500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Market started the year from 2^nd January 2023 Monday marginally in the green. We did see some ambiguity in the first half; but with few heavyweights attracting strong buying around the midsession, Nifty picked up decent momentum in the upward direction. Eventually, we ended the inaugural session around day’s high by adding half a percent to Friday’s 30 December 2022 close. We had a soft opening on 3^rd January 2023 Tuesday as indicated by the SGX Nifty early in the morning. Similar to previous sessions, the buying emerged at lower levels; but the intensity was clearly lacking. Nevertheless, Nifty managed to claw back above 18200 to finally confirm a daily close above it after nearly 6-7 sessions. We started the 4 January 2023 Wednesday session on a flat note yesterday with mildly negative bias. However, as the day progressed, market became nervous which resulted in a sustained selling across the board. With no major recovery, Nifty concluded the session at lowest point of the day convincingly below 18100 by shedding over a percent from the previous close. Honestly speaking. We had a promising start on 5 January 2023 Thursday as indicated by the SGX Nifty early in the morning. Within few trades, things came to normalcy as we pare down early lead and started correcting in line with previous session. During the first half, although Nifty showed some resilience as compared to the banking index, the selling augmented around the mid-session. In this process, Nifty sneaked below its key support of 17900. Fortunately, with some tail end recovery, Nifty managed to recoup some losses and eventually ended the session tad below the 18000 mark. Domestic benchmark indices edged lower on Friday 6 January 2023, after strong US jobs data indicated the Federal Reserve would have to keep hiking interest rates. Sensex settled at 59900 falling 452. Nifty ended at 17859 losing 132 points. Asian shares were mixed Friday after Wall Street benchmarks fell on worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. European stocks struggled to maintain gains on Friday as traders braced for US jobs data due later that will help chart the path forward for Federal Reserve monetary tightening.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

Nifty almost tested the recent lows of 17779 and bounced up a little. On a weekly basis, Nifty lost 1.36% falling in 4 out of 5 weeks and gave up almost the entire gains of the previous week. Nifty on breaching the recent lows of 17,779 could head towards 17500 while 18200 could act as a resistance in the near term.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The Nifty has managed to close below 17900, an important psychological level, for the last 2 consecutive days, suggesting weakness. A break above 18000-18200 will act as a crucial zone for Nifty to start its upward journey. Bank Nifty too has failed to close above 42500 levels and this weakness has persisted the entire week. Indicators such as RSI and MACD are losing strength suggesting that this weakness will persist. Open interest data indicates, on the call side the highest OI was witnessed at 17900 followed by 18000 strike prices while on the put side, the highest OI witnessed at 17700 followed by 17600 strike price. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 41800 levels while resistance is placed at 42800.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 06 JAN 2023

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Nifty fell for the second straight day on Jan. 5 but rebounded gracefully from the intraday lows after 1:30 p.m. Volumes on the NSE are gradually increasing as people return to work after the holidays. The broad market improved from the previous session, with the advance decline ratio rising to 0.92:1. Capital goods, tires, FMCG stocks were in demand. Sensex closed 304 points lower at 60353. Nifty closed 50 points lower at 17992. Approximately 1667 stocks rose, 1705 stocks fell, and 145 stocks remained flat. Investors around the world are digesting FOMC minutes as stock markets trade lower, showing that Fed officials are determined to tame inflation by maintaining their aggressive stance. Financials led losses in the domestic market after dismal earnings from leading NBFC. Oil prices rebounded after falling sharply on fears of a global recession as investors remain optimistic about long-term demand. European stocks fell on Thursday, posting a three-day winning streak as minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting announced a cautious tone on interest rates. Asian stocks rose on Thursday on hopes of China overcoming the pandemic. The Nifty 50 index has formed a falling three candlestick pattern on the daily chart, which is immediately followed by another bearish candlestick pattern dubbed Dark Cloud Cover, which suggests that the bears are scaling the have control The benchmark started its day with a small gap-up opening of around 50 points indicated by the SGX NIFTY. But prices failed to hold their initial gains and started their journey down, up, down, down for the day. Nifty registered its intraday low of 17892 levels and posted that it rallied gracefully in the last hour of the trading session. Currently, immediate support for the Nifty sits at 17900 levels. However, if prices fall below this level, 17850/17800 will be the fast forward target for the index. The upper band is capped below 18100 levels where 21 EMAs are placed.

Resistance: 18100, 18200, 18300

Support: 17900, 17800, 17700

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 05 JAN 2023

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Markets traded under pressure, losing over a percent on mixed evidence. After starting flat, the Nifty gradually declined throughout the day and eventually settled around the daily low to close at 18,042. Investors sold their holdings ahead of the US FOMC minutes result, which would indicate signs of an impending rate hike path. Other global macro concerns such as the slowdown in China due to higher Covid cases, falling crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on investors. There could be increased volatility in the coming sessions due to the increasing uncertainty. The drop was widespread, with real estate, metals and energy among the top losers. The broader indices also traded in parallel, ending down more than a percent each. At the close, the Sensex was down 636 points to 60657 and the Nifty was down 189 points, to 18043. Global indicators aside, the domestic market will pay close attention to corporate earnings. India's PMI for services rose to 58.5 in December on stronger new business growth. That drop has erased gains from Nifty's last four sessions, and selling pressure in the banking index, which has acted as a savior so far, has continued to worsen sentiment. And we think the pressure in Nifty could go below 18000 levels. Considering the scenario, it is advisable to limit leveraged positions and wait for clarity.The Nifty found resistance near a rising trend line and the major daily moving averages for another session. The index fell sharply towards 18000. The bulls managed to defend the most important psychological level of the day. Unless Nifty breaks 18000 on the downside, it may bounce back towards 18200-18250. On the other hand, a break of 18000 will allow the Nifty to move further towards the lower end of the short-term consolidation, i.e.. 17800 to slide.

Resistance: 18100, 18150, 18200

Support: 18000, 17900, 17800

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 04 JAN 2023

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QUARTERLY RESULT AHEAD

TCS 2023-01-09

HCL Tech 2023-01-12

Infosys 2023-01-12

Wipro 2023-01-13

HDFC Bank 2023-01-14

ICICI Prudentia 2023-01-17

Persistent 2023-01-18

MphasiS 2023-01-19

COFORGE LTD. 2023-01-20

HDFC Life 2023-01-20

JSW Steel 2023-01-20

ICICI Bank 2023-01-21

IDFC First Bank 2023-01-21

Amara Raja Batt 2023-01-25

Bajaj Auto 2023-01-25

Cipla 2023-01-25

Dr Reddys Labs 2023-01-25

Bajaj Finance 2023-01-27

In a lackluster session, markets ended in steady gains led by gains in PSU Bank and IT stocks. On the other hand, media and metals stocks saw slight profit booking. Cautiousness prevailed after IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that 2023 will be a tough year as the main engines of growth, namely the US, Europe and China, all experience a slowdown. Markets were slightly volatile, ranging in a positive bias as investors resorted to selective buying on a lack of clues from the US markets, which were closed on Monday. Surprisingly, European indices and other select Asian peers posted significant gains and failed to delight local traders in any big way. In the absence of any major economic triggers, the domestic market shifted its focus to the third quarter earnings season, which is due to start this week. Banks' first quarterly results showed solid business performance, supported by robust credit growth.Benchmark indices ended the volatile January 3rd session on a positive note. At the close, the Sensex is up 126 points to 61294 and the Nifty is up 35 points to 18232. Technically, the benchmark Nifty will aim to rise above its main resistance at 18300 mark and above that the index is moving towards its next major hurdle at 18450 mark to. For traders, 18200 would be the key trend level. Above that, the index could rally to 18350 -18450. On the upside, an uptrend below 18200 would be vulnerable and below that the index could slip to 18100-18000.

Resistance: 18250, 18350, 18450

Support: 18150, 18050, 17950

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 3 JAN 2023

Investors welcomed the new year on a high note as data showed strengthening domestic business conditions. India's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 57.8 in December from 55.7 in the previous month, with new orders rising at the fastest pace since February 2021. Our markets started the calendar year with decent gains with mixed signals. The beginning was optimistic as Nifty gradually marched towards 18,200 levels after the flat start. After that, it oscillated in a range and finally settled around its upper band to close near the 18200 level. Meanwhile, the continued buoyancy in metals and select PSU banks coupled with a surge in real estate and NBFC counts kept participants on their toes. Volumes on the NSE remained low as some participants are still on vacation. Metals stocks rose as a foreign brokerage firm turned bullish on metals stocks due to the easing of Covid restrictions in China. The smallcap index outperformed the Nifty, although the pre-decrease ratio rose to 2.1:1. Global equities broadly rallied on the first day of trading in 2023 amid low volumes as traders evaluated cheaper valuations after last year's plunge. The market ended higher on January 2nd, the first trading session of 2023, with Nifty sitting around 18200. At the close, the Sensex was up 327 points to 61167 and the Nifty was up 92 points to 18197. US stock markets will remain closed on Monday for the Lunar New Year holiday. We expect 2023 to be a year for stock buying as we believe much of the global recession is already priced in the market. The Nifty has seen a short-term consolidation in recent sessions. On the upside, a rising trendline and major daily moving averages act as resistance, while the 20-week moving average and 50% retracement of the Sept Dec 2022 rally on the downside provide support. Markets could face sharp bouts of volatility as investors prepare for the earnings season and the upcoming Union budget. Technically, the Nifty consolidates between 18,050 and 18,250 levels. For the bulls, 18250 would be the new breakout level to watch out for and above that it could rally to 18350-18400. On the upside, there is a strong possibility of a quick intraday correction below 18,100. Below that, the index could slip as low as 18,050-18,000.

Resistance: 18250, 18350, 18450

Support: 18200, 18150, 18050

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 2 JANUARY TO 6 JANUARY 2023

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 18275, 18375, 18500

PIVOT POINT: 18150

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17950, 17825, 17700

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

The destructive session on December 23, 2022 was followed by a muted open on the morning of December 26, 2022 as there were no global triggers. Nervousness lingered for the first hour as we challenged Friday's low to break into territory below 17800. Luckily, seeing this opportunity to re-enter this market after 2-3 days of a significant correction, the mighty bulls came to the rescue. Most of the depressed areas rallied strongly, led by the heavyweight banking conglomerates. Buying continued to accelerate throughout the day to eventually retake the 18,000 level on a closing basis. The smart rebound of December 26, 2022 was followed by a tentative start on December 27, 2022 despite favorable global signals. After the first hour, the cops picked it up from where they left off on Monday. Buying resumed in some of the heavyweights and then metals stocks joined the hands thanks to the easing of COVID restrictions in China. During the remainder of the session we saw steady bullishness to retake the 18100 level on a closing basis, adding over six tenths of a percent to the Bulls Kitty. We had a sluggish start to the December 28, 2022 session, factoring in slightly nervous global signals. This was followed by a gradual recovery in the first hour itself. However, momentum was clearly lacking as the session progressed. Nifty continued to fluctuate in a range of just 90 points which is certainly very narrow for index trading at 18000 levels. Finally, we ended the session almost around the last few days. Similar to the December 28, 2022 session, global markets appeared fearful on the morning of December 29, 2022 and in line with this, Nifty began the monthly expiry session on Thursday, December 29, 2022 on a negative note. Then after testing the levels around 18000; Price action in the first half was very range bound as Nifty circled in a 60 to 70 point range. However, as we entered the penultimate hour, buying momentum accelerated the pace in some of the heavyweight pockets (mainly banks), lifting overall sentiment to close just below 18200 with gains of 0.38%. Markets took profits on the last trading day of the calendar year, losing nearly half a percent. The tone was muted for most of the day, however, a sharp cut in the last half hour pushed the bulls behind. Indian benchmarks fluctuated between green and red during the morning session as investors positioned themselves around the neutral lines on mixed global clues. However, the sale of butts at the end dragged the markets lower to close in the red. On the global front, Asian markets are mostly trading in the green despite ongoing inflation concerns and rising COVID-19 cases in China. European markets traded lower and investors remained cautious as a brutal year marred by Russia's war in Ukraine, rising inflation and associated monetary tightening comes to an end. On December 30, 2022, Indian equity indices ended the session in the red. The Sensex closed below 60900 while the Nifty settled below 18200. The Sensex fell 293 points to 60840 while the Nifty fell 85 points to 18105.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

The key resistance level for Nifty is 18350 and on the downside 18000 can act as a strong support. The key resistance and support levels for Bank Nifty are 43600 and 42400, respectively.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The index has formed a bullish harami pattern on the weekly chart, indicating a bullish reversal. Also, the index closed above its 50-week exponential moving average. The momentum indicator RSI (14) on the weekly chart is in a bearish crossover. The 50 EMA and 200 DMA are in the bullish crossover. The short-term trend is likely to remain bullish as long as it stays above 17,800 on a closing basis. On the upper end, resistance is seen at 18,350. A decisive move above 18,350 could trigger another rally towards 18500/18800. On the other hand, a decisive drop below 17,800 could weaken the trend. Nifty formed a bearish dark cloud cover pattern on the daily charts. However, on the weekly charts, Nifty closed positive (up 1.68%) after a three-week decline. 17775 is now becoming an important support level to track. On the upside, the 18255-18275 band remains a key resistance. In calendar 2022, Nifty gained 4.3% while the month of December ended down 3.5%.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 30 DEC 2022

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The stock market staged a smart recovery from the daily low and closed near the daily high on the Dec. 29 F&O expiry date, led by Energy, Oil & Gas, Banks and Metals. The Sensex ended up 223 points up 61133 and the Nifty rose 68 points to 18191. The Sensex and Nifty touched daily lows of 60479 and 17992 respectively. Amid weak global signals, domestic indices opened lower and extended losses in the US Throughout the day and stayed there negative territory for most of the session. However, buying in the last hour erased all intraday losses to help the exchanges close on a positive note. The domestic market trend was affected by the movements of its global counterparts as a negative US close caused Indian bourses to get off to a bad start. However, positive signals from US futures pushed the reference index above the zero line. Markets will continue to see such sudden moves, underpinned by ongoing recession and COVID fears that bargain hunters will counter. But the sideways move will continue as recession fears in the West loom on more likely rate hikes and modest growth. Technically, Nifty took support near 18k and rallied strongly. A bullish candle on daily charts and a higher bottom formation on intraday charts indicate further upside from the current levels. For bulls, 18000 would act as a sacrosanct support zone, and above that it could rally to 18000. In case of further uptrend, the index could go as high as 18300. On the other hand, traders below 18,000 prefer to exit long positions and below that, the index could fall as low as 17800.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900 

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR F&O 29 DEC 2022

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Indian markets were split between gains and losses on Wednesday as investors turned cautious amid mixed global signals. The start of the year-end holiday season resulted in a flat stock in benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 after a 2-day significant rally. Durable consumer goods, energy and oil & gas stocks were key contributors to the market today. The rupee also rebounded from early losses to close flat. India's volatility index rose nearly 1%. Sensex closed at 60910, down 17 points, While the Nifty 50 was down 9 points, to end at 18122. Bank Nifty was slightly down 31 points, to settle at 42827.The market oscillated between gains and losses, with investors taking position around the flat line as mixed global cues worried them to choose a firm one-way move. US stocks were weak as trade deficit data indicated strength in the economy and raised concerns about a tightening stance by the Fed. However, steps to reopen the Chinese economy raised the prospect of a recovery in demand. Nifty spent all day in a narrow band, but tone was on the positive side thanks to buying of select index majors. Broad market indices closed in positive territory, but the pre-drop ratio fell to 1.34:1 from the high levels of the past two days. Global equities traded sideways on Wednesday after China took further steps to reopen its COVID-hit economy; however, hopes of an economic recovery were tempered by near-term worries about rising cases. For nifty 18200-18300 is the key resistance zone which actually proved to be the crucial barrier for the week. As long as the index remains below this resistance zone on a closing basis, it should consolidate in the near term. 18150-18100 may be the tight range for Nifty with key support at 18000. Nifty appears to have hit a roadblock after a two-day climb. However, a small intraday range does not give enough signals for the future trend. Nifty may now face resistance in the 18175-18250 area and near-term support from the 18000-17950 area. Bank Nifty, index options data points to immediate resistance at 43500 where most open interest is building on the call side. Lower index support stands at 42500 , which will act as a buffer for the bulls. Signs suggest that a range-bound trend for Nifty will continue and we expect stock-specific moves to keep participants busy thanks to derivatives contracts scheduled to expire in December 29 2022 tomorrow. In addition, the broader indices are also showing some stability, allowing participants to be selective in looking for buying opportunities.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900 

NIFTY BANKNIFTY & STOCK OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY 28 DECEMBER 2022

The Nifty50 regained momentum after significant volatility in the early hours of trading and reclaimed 18,100 on December 27th, continuing the uptrend for the second consecutive session on value buying in quality stocks following a recent correction. The Nifty opened higher at 18090 and corrected to 17967, but after an initial hour of ebb and flow, the index gained momentum, climbing as high as 18149. It finally settled at 18132, up 118 points before the monthly F&O -Expiry was scheduled Thursday. The index has formed a bullish candle on the daily charts, with a long lower shadow suggesting support buying from the lower levels, with a higher high formation. So if the index holds above 18050 then 18150 or a 50 day simple moving average (DMA or SMA) could be the next target followed by 18300 with a crucial 17950-17900 support area. Momentum oscillator RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 45 on daily and 56 on weekly charts are also showing an upward trend, suggesting further upside in the coming sessions. After a promising reversal formation, the market held the uptrend formation throughout the day.  The higher bottoming intraday suggests a continuation of a pullback rally in the near future. For trend-following traders, 18,000 would act as a sacrosanct support level, above which the index could rally to a 50-day SMA (simple moving average) or 18250. In case of further uptrend, the index could climb to 18400. Options data indicated the expected trading range for the Nifty50 for the coming sessions, moved up from 17,800-18,200 to 17,800-18,300. On the options front, we have seen the maximum call open interest at 18,200 strike followed by 18,500 strike, with call writing at 18,350 strike and then 18,150 strike. On the put side, maximum open put interest was seen at 18,000 strikes followed by 17,800 strikes, with writes at 18,000 strikes and then 18,100 strikes. India VIX continued to decline 4.03 percent to 15.29 from 15.93, making the trend favorable for bulls and helping them to buy dips. With the uptrend for the second straight session, the supports have shifted to the upside. Now it needs to hold above the 42,750 level to make an upward move towards 43,250 and 43,500 while on the downside support lies at 42,500 and 42,250.

Resistance: 18200, 18350, 18500

Support: 18050, 17900, 17750

NIFTY BANKNIFTY & STOCK OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY 27 DECEMBER 2022

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After four days of decline, the major benchmark indices rallied in Monday trading, led by financials and energy stocks. Recovering from four days of losses and a weaker open, the 30-stock The Sensex Index rebounded 721 to close at 60566 and the Nifty rose 207 points to end at 18014. SBI and IndusInd Bank were the top- Sensex 30 winners, each up 4%. Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, ITC, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, Ultra Tech Cement, NTPC and Tata Motors were the other big gainers, each up 2.3%. On the other hand, Nestle India slipped over 1%. In terms of the Fibonacci retracement, the Nifty had hit a 50% retracement of the September 2022-December 2022 rally. Consequently, on December 26th, the index had a quick rebound minus from Friday. Thus, 18075-18150 will be the short-term hurdle zone that will decide the index's course of action. The overall structure shows that Nifty is likely to see a short-term consolidation with key support at 17950. Technically, Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart as it closed above 18000, a critical psychological level. The overall structure shows that the index is likely to see both sideways movements in the coming days. The Nifty could find support around 17950 followed by 17900 while on the upside 18100 could act as an immediate hurdle. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 41500 while resistance is placed at 42800. India VIX managed to stay below 16 levels. Indicators like the RSI remained in the neutral zone while the Bollinger Band indicated that 18450 would remain a strong resistance until the monthly expiry. Overall, investors can opt for quality stocks and index ETFs for long-term portfolios.

Resistance: 18075, 18175, 18275

Support: 17950, 17850, 17750

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 26 DECEMBER TO 30 DECEMBER 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17950, 18200, 18500

PIVOT POINT: 17800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17700, 17600, 17500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Our market started the week beginning December 19, 2022 on a flat note, aligning with mixed global exchanges. Shortly after the opening bell, the bulls took the opportunity and rallied slightly in the benchmark index, after which narrow range-bound moves were seen for most of the day. However, the market continued to gain traction in the penultimate hour as broad-based buying took hold and sent general sentiment floating. Amid the strong trading day, the Nifty settled near the daily high, sourcing eighths-tenths of a%. On December 20, 2022, Indian equity markets got off to a slow start, modeled on gloomy global stock markets. Benchmark index Nifty50 had a gapped open, slipping below Monday's low early in the session and remaining in a narrow range in the lower range for most of the day. However, in the penultimate hour, the bulls recovered slightly, paring the initial loss. Amid the volatile session, Nifty ended the day down just 0.19% and settled a little below the 18400 level.  On December 21, 2022, Indian stock markets plunged ahead of the weekly expiration, with the benchmark index Nifty50 slipping over 300 points, ending the day forming a strong bearish candle. The sell-off intensified in the second half of the session, taking the index below Tuesday's low and dampening market sentiment. Amid the selling pressure, the index settled slightly below the 18200 level with a decline of nearly 1 percent. On December 22, 2022, the Indian stock market plunged over the Covid issues and corrected for the third consecutive day of the week. The benchmark Nifty50 index saw a gradual decline throughout the day, crashing below 18100 on the day of weekly expiry. However, after the frenzy in Thursday's session, the index managed to settle slightly above the 18100 level with a 0.39% decline. ON Friday 23rd December 2022 markets fell sharply continuing the prevailing corrective trend. After the gap down start, Nifty gradually dipped lower over the course of the session and eventually neared the daily low to close at 17,806. Pressure was widespread with PSU banks, metals and energy stocks being hit hard. The broader indices underperformed the benchmark.

NIFTY : STRONG SUPPORT & STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

Technically, the market has entered a cycle of forming lower lows and lower highs and until the 18500 zone is decisively breached the ongoing trend remains intact. On the lower end is the sacrosanct support around 17800-17700-17600, which is highly expected to remain intact. On the upside, 18200-18300 is seen as intermediate resistance before the 18500 major hurdle.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Markets went into frantic selling as weak global cues and bearish external factors pushed both major benchmark indices below psychological levels. Alongside the rise in Covid cases in China and Japan, better-than-expected US Q3 GDP numbers have raised further concerns that the Fed will make further rate hikes to tame inflation, fueling selling pressure in markets further strengthened. Technically, the index closed below the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) after a long stretch and also formed a long bearish candle on weekly charts that is largely negative. For traders, as long as the index trades below 17900 the corrective wave is likely to continue and below that the index could slip as low as 17700-17,500. On the upside, 18,000 could act as a sacrosanct resistance zone. Firing 18,000 could push the index to the 50-day SMA or 18200-18500.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY & STOCK OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY 23 DECEMBER 2022

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Indian benchmark indices got off to a positive start today amid strong global market signals. Indexes gained momentum after overnight gains on Wall Street. However, the euphoria soon faded as investors remained cautious amid rising Covid cases in China, Japan, Korea and Brazil. Sensex closed 241 points lower at 60826. Nifty closed 71 points lower at 18127. Markets continued down today despite a steady open and lack of data on new strains other than Omicron subvariants elsewhere. As gravity reverses due to rising interest rates and PE expansion hard to come by, the road seems preferring to stay a little more composed ahead of the new calendar year and earnings season. All industry indices ended in the red in today's trading.

On the technical side, the key resistance level for Nifty50 lies at 18250 and on the downside, 18000 can act as a strong support. The key resistance and support levels for Bank Adept are 43200 and 41800, respectively. The bears continued to attack the Bank Nifty index at higher levels, which led to aggressive selling pressures throughout the day. The index broke the 42700 support and remains in a sell-on-rise mode as long as it stays below the 43200 level where the highest open interest is building on the call side. The index's next support stands at 42200 and a failure below that will pull it towards the 41800-41500 zone.

Resistance: 18250, 18350, 18450

Support: 18150, 18050, 17950

NIFTY BANKNIFTY & STOCK OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY 22 DECEMBER 2022

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Wednesday turned blood red for Indian markets as the Sensex and Nifty 50 tumbled more than 1%, led by a broad sell-off on renewed fears of a Covid outbreak in China, the US and elsewhere. India has stepped up measures to ensure the latest coronavirus threat does not wreak havoc in the country. The severe crash even plunged the Sensex below its 61000 mark before correcting while the Nifty 50 struggled to reach 18200 levels. This would be a second straight day drop in Indian benchmarks. After hitting an intraday low of 60938, Sensex closed down 635 points at 61067. Meanwhile, Nifty 50 lost 186 points, to end at 18199 after falling to 18162.  On the lower end, the index could extend the correction towards 18000; below that, the index could fall towards 17800. On the upside, 18400 could act as a critical support and the market could continue selling until the Nifty stays below 18200. The Banknifty Has Formed A Bearish Engulfing Pattern Intraday Chart, which is a bearish pattern. Immediate support for the indices on the downside lies in the 42500 - 42300 range and failure to sustain above will result in further selling pressure towards the 41500 level

Resistance: 18300, 18450, 18550

Support: 18250, 18150, 18050 

NIFTY BANKNIFTY & STOCK OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY 21 DECEMBER 2022

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Nifty ended slightly lower after recovering sharply from the morning lows of December 20th. Nifty rallied after midday, after the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's unexpected hawkish move to widen the long-term yield range had faded. At the close the Sensex was down 103 points at 61702 and the Nifty was down 35 points at 18385. Markets struggled through the session, ending in red on weak global clues but recovering most of their early losses. The choppy trend can be attributed to the lack of new positive triggers. Investors are also awaiting the release of the RBI's recently concluded monetary policy minutes on Wednesday, which may provide some clarity on the likely course of action for central banks in the near future. The Bank of Japan shocked global markets with a totally unexpected move raising the upper band limit for the 10-year yield to 50 basis points in what is seen as a move toward a hawkish policy shift. This has exacerbated the sell-off in the global market, which was already risk-averse due to mounting recession fears following the Fed's comment. Against this background, the US GDP figures expected for Thursday will give a picture of the strength of the US economy. Technically, after a sharp sell-off during the day, the index took support near 18250 early in the morning and recovered from the daily low. Currently, the market is witnessing omni directional activity and perhaps traders are waiting for a breakout on either side. For bulls, 18500 would be the key breakout level to watch. And if the market manages to trade above it then we can expect a quick uptrend rally towards 18600-18700. On the downside, trading below 18250 can amplify further weakness towards 18200-18100. Low market volumes have led to higher intraday volatility in the markets. Nifty could now remain in the 18225-18475 range for the short-term and a break of this range could result in an accelerated move in that direction.

Resistance: 18300, 18400, 18500

Support: 18200, 18100, 18000