NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 23 MARCH 2023

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The domestic market stayed afloat in volatile trading and was able to stay positive on optimism that the global banking system woes are behind us. In addition, volatility stemming from western markets ahead of the Fed policy announcement and the release of high UK inflation put market sentiment to the test. The market has priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed and consistent and less restrictive policy will attract bulls. The Nifty had a trading day in a range today. It opened on a positive note and then consolidated to end the day up ~44 points. Looking at the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty is in pullback mode after correcting around 1000 points between March 9th and March 20th. Benchmark indices ended the volatile March 22nd session higher. At the close, the Sensex was up 139 points, to 58214 and the Nifty was up 44 points to 17151. Around 1993, stocks rose, 1421 stocks fell and 128 stocks remained flat. Today the daily momentum indicator triggered a new positive crossover, which is a buy signal. Also, we believe the pullback is ongoing and expect it to continue in the next few trading sessions. On the upside, we expect a retracement to the 17200-17400 levels where resistance will form in the form of the 200-day moving average and also a gap on March 10th. On the underside stands immediate support at the bottom of the down-sloping channel 16850 16750.

Resistance: 17200, 17250, 17300

Support: 17150, 17100, 17050

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The Nifty had a steady trading day today. It opened positive and consolidated in the first half of the trading session. Buying interest arose in the second half of the session, which helped the Nifty close around the daily highs. Indian equity benchmarks Nifty and Sensex remained in the green after a fairly strong start on Tuesday, led by financials and oil & gas stocks, amid positive moves in global markets as the Credit Suisse bailout gave investors who been hit by strong selling, some relief has come to bank stocks in recent days, although caution has persisted. Global markets, buoyed by a raft of banking sector shielding measures, staged a rebound ahead of the US Federal Reserve's announcement on Wednesday.  Momentum spilled over into domestic stocks led by large cap banks. However, gains were limited by IT stocks, which were on the lookout for cautious transaction gains from the BFSI segment in western markets. Benchmark indices closed positive on March 21st with Nifty above 17100. The Sensex was up 445 points, to 58074, and the Nifty was up 119 points to 17107. We expect the positive momentum to continue in the coming trading sessions. On the hourly charts, we can observe positive divergence along with a positive crossover in the momentum indicator, which indicates a loss of momentum to the downside and will add speed to the current pullback. On the upside, we expect the Nifty to target the 17125-17175 area, which coincides with the previous swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 17700 pullback. Immediate support stands at the bottom of the down sloping channel 16875 16825.

Resistance: 17125, 17175, 17225

Support: 17050, 17000, 16950

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 20 MARCH TO 24 MARCH 2023

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17200, 17400, 17600

PIVOT POINT: 17000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16900, 16700, 16500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

This week beginning March 13, 2023, the market started on a strong note, with the benchmark index retesting the 17500 zone within minutes of the opening bell. However, it appeared to be false momentum as the index reversed to curb early gains and gradually dipped into negative territory. Amid the hustle and bustle, the Nifty50 index slipped to a new low of 1.49 percent in the current calendar year and settled around the 17150 mark. On March 15, 2023, positive developments in the overseas market led to an encouraging start in our Indian market, where the benchmark index opened a decent gap to the upside. But just after the opening bell, the index gradually slipped to test the previous day's close, trimming any initial gains and sentiment. Also, the sell-off at the end of the butt worsened, pushing the index into negative territory, slipping below the psychological 17000 level. Without pausing the sell-off, Nifty continued its downtrend for the fifth straight session, settling a bit below the 17000 level, shedding 0.42 percent. The Indian stock market had a volatile trading day, with the benchmark index Nifty50 getting off to a gloomy start, slipping to lows of 16850. But soon after, some rebound was seen on the lower bottoms, leading to a modest recovery as the Index broke its losing streak. Amid the intense tug-of-war, the Nifty50 index closed the weekly decline session on a muted note, shedding 0.08 percent gains and settling just below the 17000 level. On March 16, 2023, the Indian stock market had a volatile trading day, with the benchmark index Nifty50 getting off to a gloomy start, slipping to the low of 16850. But soon after, some rebound was seen on the lower bottoms, prompting a modest recovery and the index ended its losing streak. Amid the intense tug-of-war, the Nifty50 index closed the weekly decline session on a muted note, shedding 0.08 percent gains and settling just below the 17000 level. On March 17, 2023, indices closed higher in the volatile March 17 session with Nifty at 17100. At the close, the Sensex was up 355 points to 57989 and the Nifty was up 114 points to 17100. Around 2008, stocks rose, 1407 stocks fell and 118 stocks remained flat. These included HCL Technologies, Hindalco Industries, UPL, UltraTech Cement and Nestle India

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

We expect the Nifty to consolidate between 16800-17200 parameters from the next few trading sessions. we believe that the pullback rally has some more steam left and the Nifty is likely to carry on this positive momentum next week as well.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

After the strong rebound in global markets, domestic indices took a breather on hopes of some relief from the global banking turmoil. Global equities reversed their selling streak after reports of a rescue package for the ailing First Republic bank, along with bailout from the Swiss central bank to Credit Suisse, which would allay concerns about global financial stability. On the other hand, the ECB further hiked rates by 50 basis points, signaling its willingness to provide banks with liquidity if needed.On the upside, the 40 hourly moving average and hourly upper Bollinger band in the 17150-17200 range acted as strong resistance and further restricting upside and on the downside, the swing low formed at 16850 should be supported serve as crucial support in the short term perspective. We expect the Nifty to consolidate between these two parameters over the next few trading sessions. We believe the pullback rally still has some more steam and the Nifty is likely to continue this positive momentum next week. What we are seeing is a recovery rally, supported by strong positive global evidence, as the US Federal Reserve is expected to refrain from aggressive rate hike moves to tame inflation. Some worries about the declining financial health of the US banking industry have also subsided, further boosting market sentiment. Falling crude oil prices and a rebound in the metals sector on hopes of a Chinese economy revival are also providing some support to struggling markets.

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Domestic stocks ended their five-day dry spell after the Swiss National Bank agreed to provide financial support to Credit Suisse Group. Nifty opened on the upside but experienced a roller coaster ride throughout the session to finally end with a marginal 13 point gain at 16986 levels. Fresh worries about the failure of Credit Suisse have fueled fears about how entrenched the banking crisis could become. Its ripple effect can be seen in global markets including India. Nifty is down ~4% over the past six trading sessions. We expect weakness to continue in the near term ahead of today's ECB meeting and next week's Fed meeting. Commentary on the ongoing turmoil in the financial sector would be crucial for markets. We expect oil distributors, cement and paint stocks to remain in the spotlight as Brent crude prices fell to a 15-month low of $73/bbl. The market ended Thursday's volatile session in positive territory but despite several attempts, Nifty failed to settle above 17000. The index rose 13 points to 16985 and Sensex climbed 79 points to 57634. ​​Bank Nifty rose 81 points to 39132. The top gainers on the Nifty were BPCL, Hindustan Unilever Asian Paints, Nestle India and Titan, while the Losers were Hindalco, Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel and HDFC Life. The Nifty found support at the lower band of the falling channel before moving higher. A leggy doji pattern has formed on the daily chart, indicating indecisiveness. Also, the index has found support around previous congestion. In the short term, the stock should move towards 17200. On the lower end, the closing base support at 16900 is visible.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400   

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900

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Indian stocks extended losses for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, weighed down by financials, while benign inflation data in the United States boosted the chances of a minor rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and limited losses. Nifty closed under 17,000 at 16,972 as it dropped 71 points. Sensex ended below 57600 and closed at 57555 as it lost nearly 350 points. Both indices rose nearly 1% during the session before reversing gains. Benchmarks reflected heavily weighted financials, which closed 0.77% lower. Ten of the 13 major sector indices posted losses. The Sensex and Nifty bucked the recovery in global markets after US inflation data bolstered bets of a minor 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its March 21-22 monetary policy meeting. Markets look oversold but there are clouds of uncertainty. In the short term, the Fed should be dovish. Global stocks have sold off in recent sessions on contagion fears from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States. For long-term investors, there are value picks in the current market. But to bet that markets have already bottomed is a bit premature. Global investors remain cautious ahead of the forthcoming central bank meeting, although there was some relief after the US government intervened to allay concerns about the ongoing banking crisis linked to in-line CPI inflation figures. On the domestic front, Nifty closed below 17,000 zones after a five-month gap, indicating the weak structure of the market. We expect the market to stay in negative territory for the next few days. Nifty failed to build on opening gains on March 15 and ended in the red. 16750-17150 could be the trading range for Nifty in the near future. The day that Nifty has a gap-up open and closes near the daily high could mark a short-term reversal.

Resistance: 17000, 17250, 17500

Support: 16900, 16800, 16700

 

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Domestic indices experienced a roller coaster ride amid ongoing global uncertainty. Nifty opened flat but soon experienced selling pressure. Nifty drifted below the 17,000 zone for a brief moment during the day, almost after more than 4 months it was last below 17,000 on October 13, 2022. Nifty ended the day down 111 (-0.7%) at 17043. The only positive factor today was the WPI data for Feb. 23, which came in at 3.85%, a 25-month low. Except for pharmaceuticals, all sectors ended in red. The Nifty saw a volatile trading session today. It saw strong swings in both directions, eventually ending down 111 points for the day in the red. It is the fourth consecutive negative close for the index. It corrected around 800 points during this period, so a recovery rally cannot be ruled out. Selling continued as the level of uncertainty surrounding US banks decreased on supportive measures announced by the US Federal Reserve. The underlying problem of the market is high interest rates, which will continue to wreak havoc on the global economy. Yields will take some time to adjust to the long-term trend given tightening monetary policy and high inflation. Monetary policy shift from tightening to neutral will ease concerns for long-term investors. The Momentum indicator has a negative crossover which is a sell signal and as prices are trading along the expanding lower Bollinger Band it suggests the decline is likely to continue. The preferred strategy for trading Nifty would be to sell on a rise around the 17200-17100 zone. On the downside, we expect the Nifty to target levels of 16900 where the bottom of the down sloping channel is placed. On the upside, 17350-17500 where the 40 hourly moving average is placed should serve as the immediate hurdle zone from a short-term perspective.

Resistance: 17200, 17250, 17300

Support: 17150, 17100, 17050

 

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Carnage was seen in the global market as the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank was followed by turbulence at Signature Bank, leaving investors concerned about the strength of the US banking system. Market sell-off as consensus returns to no rate hike. US inflation, due Tuesday, will also have a key impact in the near term as the market expects a slowdown from January levels. Domestic indices saw renewed selling pressure on US banking issues. Nifty opened positive but soon came under heavy selling pressure to close down 257 points (-1.5) at 17156. All sectors ended in the red with Banks and Auto down 2% each versus the big fires. At close, the Sensex was down 897 points at 58237, and Nifty was down 258 points at 17154.The India Vix surged 19% to 16 levels, suggesting increased volatility. Rising uncertainty at several mid- and small-sized companies (Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank) has caused global investors to become nervous about the health of the US banking sector. Expect increased volatility until clarity emerges on the potential depth of the crisis. The US Federal Reserve's emergency damage control meeting would be crucial for the markets. Aside from that release of inflation data from India and the US along with the ECB meeting later in the week, it would be very important to monitor. Markets started the week weakly, losing nearly a percent and a half, continuing the prevailing trend. After the initial surge, the Nifty index gradually fell throughout the day, finally settling at 17,154. Selling pressure was widespread, with banking, auto and IT majors taking a heavy hit. The broader indices also fell significantly, losing nearly 2% each.

The move shows that participants are uncomfortable citing the US banking crisis and downsizing, while ignoring news of the bailout. Banking and finance firms used to act as saviors, but the tone has now completely changed, further adding to their concerns. We reiterate our negative view and see 17k as immediate support for Nifty. Traders should adjust their positions accordingly.

Resistance: 17200, 17300, 17400

Support: 17150, 17100, 17000

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 13 MARCH TO 17 MARCH 2023

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17500, 17650, 17800

PIVOT POINT: 17350

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17300, 17200, 17100

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

We kick started the week from 6 march 2023 on a strong note taking favorable global cues into a consideration. In the initial hour, the move extended to reach the 17800 mark. However, the traders chose to take some money off the table at higher levels, which resulted in a gradual decline throughout the remaining part of the session. Eventually, the Nifty managed to hold nearly seven tenths of percent gains to conclude tad above 17700. On 7 march 2023 market was closed on occasion of Holi.  The US markets reacted negatively to the remark of the FED Chairperson on the rate hikes and taking cues from there the SGX Nifty indicated a weak opening. In line with this, our markets had a gap-down opening on 8 march 2023 however post the initial hiccup there was a gradual bounce back to recover the lost ground. During the fag end there was a strong positive traction that eventually resulted in Nifty ending with gains of 0.24% tad above 17750.. Our markets witnessed a marginally positive opening on 9march 2023; however right from the word go prices started to slide lower forming an open high kind of scenario. During the midst, there was a mild bounce back that was inferior to the Bank Nifty. Eventually, this bounce as well got sold into as one more round of profit booking resulted in Nifty ending below 17600 with a loss of around nine-tenths of a percent. On 10 march 2023 indices ended lower for the second consecutive session on March 10 with Nifty around 17400. At Close, the Sensex was down 671 points at 59135, and the Nifty was down 176 points at 17412.. The global market's cautious attitude towards the probability of a sharper rate hike was exacerbated by further negative signs from the US market. Selling intensified as the market awaited the release of US unemployment and non-farm payroll data, which will have a significant impact on the upcoming Fed meeting. However, higher-than-expected jobless claims in the US that came in yesterday helped alleviate some concerns about the Fed becoming stricter.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

The Nifty developed a Bearish Engulfing pattern and further bearishness is also confirmed as the Nifty closes in the red today. Nifty's pivotal levels to watch are support at 17300 and the 200 EMA at 17700.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Technically, the Nifty has formed a strong bearish candle on weekly charts and it is comfortably trading below the 20 and 50-day SMA. For the positional traders, 17500 would act as a medium term resistance zone and below the same, the index could slip till 17100. On the flip side, a minor pullback rally is possible, if the index trades above 17450 and could move up to 17500 -17600. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty also breached the important support level of 4,000 or 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) which is broadly negative. Below the same it could retest the level of 40,000-39,800. The sentiment has been bruised by the recent US Fed statement that more rate hike is on the card to keep inflation under control, which could fuel recession fears going ahead. 

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Sensex resumes downtrend on Thursday, falling 542 points; while nifty slips below 17,600; Selling pressures came to the fore after 3 days of recovery rally as the US Federal Reserve signaled another rate hike to inflation and reignited concerns over slowing growth. Also, rising bond yields in recent sessions suggest that risk aversion in equities will remain dominant and liquidity could be tighter. The domestic market struggled to hold on to earlier gains as the Fed Chair's reaffirmation of his hawkish stance raised further concerns. With this in mind, the upcoming US jobs data will have a significant impact on Fed policy decisions at their upcoming FOMC meeting. An unexpectedly strong jobs report will prompt the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points. Indian benchmark indices closed lower on March 9th with Nifty around 17600. At the close, the Sensex was down 541 points to 59806 and the Nifty was down 164 points to 17589.

Technically, the Nifty has formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts, supporting further weakness from current levels. The drop on the hourly charts suggests that a correction is in the works and thus this drop is unlikely to result in a trend reversal. In terms of price pattern, the Nifty could be about to form a bullish flag pattern. For the bulls, 17700 would act as an immediate resistance zone. Below that, the index could slip as low as 17550-17500. On the upside above 17725 saw a small intraday pullback rally to 17750-17800.

Resistance: 17700, 17750, 17800

Support: 17600, 17550, 17500

 

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The market ended higher on March 6th Monday for the second straight session with Nifty above 17700. At the close, the Sensex was up 415 points to 60224 and the Nifty was up 117 points to 17711. The main concern for the market over the past few weeks has been fear of aggressive Fed policy action, which has caused Treasury yields and the US dollar to rise, as well as the uncertainties surrounding Adani. All of this has now shifted in the bulls' favor as US officials reduced the likelihood of a sharp rate hike, forcing yields and the dollar index to moderate.Market sentiment improved on the back of bulk overseas trading at Adani, the oversold streak in the domestic market and FII buying helped fuel the recovery.

After opening a gap at 17,680, Nifty continued to climb and closed the gap area between 17750 and 17800 created on February 21-22, 2023. The 50-day SMA is 17800 , while the 20-day SMA is 17,650. For further strength, Nifty must move decisively past 17,811 levels. Above 17800 the gate will open briefly for 17850 -17950. Only a decisive break of 17700 levels with a short-term switch from up to down and then Nifty could slide sharply towards 17500 levels. The Bank Nifty index saw some selling pressure from higher levels but the broader trend remains bullish and a buy-on-dip approach should be retained. Index lower support is at 41,000, where the highest open interest is building on the put side, and upside resistance is at 42,000. The index is likely to trade in this range for the next few trading sessions.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 6 MARCH TO 10 MARCH 2023

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17600, 17700, 17800

PIVOT POINT: 17500

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17400, 17300, 17200

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Weakness in global markets led to a dismal start for Indian equities, with the benchmark testing the budget's daily low to daunt market sentiment. However, in the penultimate hour, some bout of buying off the lows led to a modest rebound in Nifty. Amid all the hustle and bustle, on February 27, 2023, the leading index closed down 0.42% in red for the seventh day in a row. On February 29, our market started on a flat note, following the positive global cues and climbing inch by inch at the opening bell at. But soon after, a sell-off was triggered that gradually dragged the index below Monday's low, indicating the strength of the bears on higher ground. With the intense sell-off day, Nifty continued its selling streak for the eighth straight day and settled slightly above the 17300 level with another 0.51% drop. The Indian stock market ended its selling spree and recovered slightly on March 1, 2023. The benchmark index started the session on a positive note and remained on the uptrend throughout the day. The bulls showed their presence after the sharp correction of eight straight sessions, lifting market sentiment. The Nifty closed near the daily high, raising nearly nine-tenths of a percent and settling around the 17450 level. Our market began the weekly expiration session on Thursday, March 2, 2023 on a somber note, aligning with the SGX Nifty, and shortly after the opening bell, the benchmark index fell to lower terrain. The Bears once again tightened their grip and showed strong resilience, swelling the Nifty. In the second half, another round of sell-offs dragged the index below the previous days' lows, dampening sentiment. After all the hustle, Nifty ended the day in red down 0.74 percent and settled just above the 17300 level. Markets staged a strong recovery on Friday 3 march 2023, gaining over a percent and a half, following supportive global signals. After the gap-up start, the Nifty index gradually increased throughout the session, eventually settling at 17,594.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

On the top end, the Nifty can rally higher once it moves above 17650; on the upper end, resistance is seen at 17800. On the lower end, support is visible at 17450.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The short-term trend remains negative as the index closed below the critical short-term moving average. The momentum oscillator RSI is in a bullish crossover on the daily timeframe. On the index front, Nifty has the long-term moving average hurdle, i.e. 200 EMA, breached but sustainability would be crucial for further recovery. In the meantime, we reiterate our view that we will focus on overnight stock selection and risk management. Looking at the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty is in a pullback mode and has currently retraced 38.2% of the fall from 18134 to 17255. We believe this is the case. This pullback rally has more steam and can therefore extend up to 17700 where resistance comes in the form of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (17690) and the 20-day moving average ( 17700) is placed. Consolidation cannot be ruled out given the strong upward movement in today's trading session. Overall, we expect the Nifty to trade in the 17700-17200 range in the near term.

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The Nifty opened on a weak note today and continued to drift lower throughout the day to close around the lows for the day down ~129 points. After a positive close in the previous trading session the Nifty did not witness follow through buying interest in fact it has closed below the low (17345) of the previous trading session which is a sign of weakness. Benchmark indices ended lower on March 2 with around 17300 amid selling across the sectors barring realty, power and oil & gas. At close, the Sensex was down 501 points at 58909, and the Nifty was down 129 points at 17321. Global markets turned back to selling mode with the US 10-year bond yield crossing 4% as a fresh set of US data suggested that inflation will remain elevated for a longer period. Rising bond yields are driving foreign money out of emerging markets, and as a result, FIIs were net sellers in the domestic market for the sixth consecutive day. Mid- and small-cap stocks continued to show resilience with mild selling compared to their larger peers. We expect a couple of rate hikes both from the Fed and the RBI and a pause for the rest of the year. With the yield curve flat at the moment, we are positioning at the short end with an opportunist shift to the long end when it spikes. It would not be unrealistic to expect a spike on the 10 year Gsec yield to between 7.8 and 8%. If that happens, duration comes into play and investors can shift their positions to the long end. On the hourly charts we can observe that the rise from the lows of 17250 has been impulsive in nature indicating that a short term bottom is in place and this dip is a retracement of that rise. It is trading in the crucial Fibonacci support zone 17340– 17275 which are the 61.82% retracement level (17340) and 78.6% retracement levels (17275) respectively and we expect the Nifty to hold on to this support and resume it next leg of up move. Overall, we believe that the Nifty is a counter trend pullback mode and the pullback is not complete yet.

Resistance: 17350, 17450, 17550

Support: 17250, 17150, 17050

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Markets staged a relief rally after eight sessions of losses as broad-based buying on short covering and an uptrend in European and select Asian indices supported sentiment. The rebound was expected as the market had seen relentless selling for the past week or so on weak global cues and concerns of a slowdown. Indian benchmark indices closed positive on March 1st with Nifty around 17450. Finally, the Sensex rose 448 points to 59411 and the Nifty rose 147 points to 17450.

A promising reversal formation and a strong bullish candle suggest another uptrend in the near future. For the traders, 17400 would act as a sacrosanct support zone and above the same the positive momentum is likely to continue till 17600 -17650. On the other side, below 17325 uptrend would be vulnerable.

Resistance: 17500, 17600, 17700

Support: 17400, 17300, 17200

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The market chaos continued for the 8th straight day and the negativity can be attributed to the relentless selling by the FII camp. The negative takeaway was that although Adani Group shares surged higher in today's trading.The Nifty opened on a flat note and saw sustained selling pressure throughout the day to end the day on a negative note for the eighth straight trading session. The daily lower Bollinger Band is expanding and prices are trading along the lower band, suggesting the decline is likely to continue. . Benchmark indices ended the volatile February 28 session negative, with Nifty hovering around 17,300. At the close, the Sensex was down 326 points, to 58962 and the Nifty was down 88 points, to 17304. Global investor interest in the stock market is flagging due to the economic slowdown led by high inflation and tightening monetary policy. Inflows are diverted to safe havens and corporate earnings growth slows, impacting stock market performance and necessitating a rating downgrade. The dual disadvantage for India is that it is expensive compared to other emerging markets, resulting in underperformance in the global market.

The market is already in an oversold position, but India's high valuation relative to other markets appears to have caught up with investors, who are steadily reducing their long positions. Technically 17325 could be the immediate trigger level for the bulls and above that the same index could rally to 17350 -17400. On the downside, as long as the index trades below 17300 , the corrective wave is likely to continue and it could slip as low as 17275 -17225. The Bank Nifty Index experienced a range-bound trading move and formed a doji candle on the daily chart. Index support is at 39800 and resistance is visible at 40200, a break on either side will result in trend moves. Index within range remains in buy-on-dip mode with support at 39800.

Resistance: 17350, 17400, 17450

Support: 17250, 17200, 17150

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Bears continued to wreak havoc on the domestic market as the latest data release from the US added to existing concerns about aggressive rate hikes. US personal spending, which can be monitored by the Fed for inflation, rose in January, urging investors to stay away from stock markets. The US dollar index surpassed 105 which further pressured the INR. The markets started the week weakly and lost almost half a percent in continuation of the prevailing correction phase. After the initial tide, Nifty broke the budget's low for the day,. 17353 levels, and oscillated in a narrow band thereafter. Meanwhile, pressure in IT, metals and auto companies set a negative tone, but the resilience of the banking package limited the damage. And a renewed decline in broader indices further soured sentiment. At Close, the Sensex was down 175.58 points or 0.30% at 59,288.35, and the Nifty was down 73.10 points or 0.42% at 17,392.70. About 944 shares have advanced, 2511 shares declined, and 174 shares are unchanged Nifty recovered before closing around the daily high when it formed a hammer pattern on the daily chart, indicating the possibility of a bullish reversal. It found support around the 200DMA on the daily chart. Going forward, the index could see a strong rebound as long as it closes above the 200-day moving average (17370). At the upper end, the index could recover towards 17600/17750 in the short term. However, a decisive drop below 17370 could open the gate towards 17150 and below. Bank Nifty bulls bounced back strongly for lower levels and managed to hold 39,700 support. The index's immediate resistance is 40,500 and if it holds above it may witness a pullback rally to 41,000 where new calls will become visible. The index remains in a buy-on-dip mode as long as the mentioned support holds.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400   

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900 

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The downward spiral continued amid strong intraday volatility as uncertainty surrounding the weak global economic scenario coupled with the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve would maintain a hawkish stance weighed on sentiment. Markets could continue to experience intermittent bearish streaks Investors are likely to reduce their long positions due to a number of negative factors.Technically, the Nifty has formed a long bearish candle on weekly charts, suggesting further weakness from current levels. However, with the market in oversold territory, we could see a quick pullback rally if the index trades above 17550. Above that, the pullback pattern should continue to 17650-17700. On the downside, the weak sentiment will continue as long as the index trades below 17500. Below that, the index could retest the 200-day SMA or 17425 level. The Nifty has fallen back into the falling trough, increasing the likelihood of further downside. The 50DMA and 14DMA are in a bearish crossover. Also, the current reading is well below the critical short-term moving averages, with the momentum oscillator RSI (14) slipping below the 50 level towards 17300-17200 in the short-term. On the upside, the key resistance stands at 17700.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 27 FEBRUARY TO 3 MARCH 2023

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17550, 17700, 17950

PIVOT POINT: 17450

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17400, 17250, 17100

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

The Indian equity market had a decent start on 20 February 2023 taking cues from mixed global bourses, wherein the benchmark index started on a mild note and tested the 18000 mark. However, the markets were hesitant to carry the momentum and kept hustling near the psychological mark in the initial hours. By mid-session, the bears showed their presence by tightening their grip, which pared down the gains and dragged Nifty to the lower grounds. Post all the hustles, Nifty settled the day in red with a loss of 0.56 percent, a tad below the 17850 level. We had a positive start to the21 February 2023 session, however, post the strong opening there was a tug of war between the bulls and bears as there were choppy moves on both sides of the trend. Nifty eventually ended the indecisive session with a negligible loss tad above the 17800 levels. On 22 February 2023 The US bourses were under tremendous pressure overnight and taking cues from there our markets started with a big gap down opening. As the day progressed, we witnessed broad-based weakness, and the sell-off extended without any meaningful intraday bounce. Nifty eventually ended with a cut of 1.53% tad above 17550. Our market started the 23 February 2023 session with marginal gains but soon after the sell off resumed to test the 17450 mark. The oversold markets then rebounded sharply post the initial hour to hasten towards 17600 in a flash. However, due to lack of follow up buying, the momentum fizzed out at higher levels. During the remaining part of the session, the Nifty remained sideways and with some weakness towards the end resulted in Nifty concluding the February series on a weak note, tad above 17500.On friday 24 February  Rebound in the early hours of the trading day was short-lived. Sensex erased all gains and fell by 150 points. Nifty closed below 17,500, with metal and auto stocks being under pressure. Santosh Nair decodes the volatility in the markets. Spicejet, NMDC, Nestle and Oil India are also on the radar.At Close, the Sensex was down 141 points at 59463, and the Nifty was down 45 points at 17465.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

Taking a glance at the broader price action, all key indices have reached their crucial support zones. We can see them placed around the multi-month trend line levels. Since it was mostly financial led down move recently, the other indices like, BANKNIFTY and FINNIFTY have rebounded sharply and formed a ‘Dragonfly Doji’ pattern precisely at ‘Trendline’ and ‘200-SMA’, respectively. Hence, if global market supports, we will not be surprised to see some recovery in coming sessions.As far as levels are concerned, 17400-17200 should be treated as a key support, which we believe may not get broken easily. On the flipside, 17600 - 17700 - 17800 are to be seen as major hurdles.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

With the inflationary pressure sky rocketing and a deep dive towards US recession this year onwards, a fed rate hike of 25 basis points is highly possible. Since the labor market is also tightening, and beyond the 2% target, along with a restrictive stance of monetary policy, this rate hike might be of a hawkish tone to be in line with their quantitative tightening strategyThe Nifty has fallen back into the falling channel, heightening the chances of further downsides. The 50DMA and 14DMA are in a bearish crossover. Also, the current value is sitting well below the critical near-term moving averages, with the momentum oscillator RSI (14) slipping below the reading of 50.The current set-up is likely to keep the Nifty under pressure, with a potential downside towards 17200–17000 over the short term. On the higher end, crucial resistance is placed at 17,800.The bounce is likely to be temporary in nature and is unlikely to result into a trend reversal. The daily momentum indicator has a negative crossover which is a sell signal. Overall, the downtrend is still intact and any bounce should be used as an opportunity to create fresh short positions. We expect Nifty to target level of 17300 from short term perspective.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 24 FEB 2023

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The Nifty February futures index ended broadly unchanged from the Nifty 50 on the day of its expiry. On Thursday, the NSE's 50-scrip benchmark extended its decline for five straight days as concerns of further rate hikes escalated, after central banks' minutes this inflation revealed is still high and needs to be brought down. According to the NSE, the Nifty February futures index closed at 17,511.90 compared to the previous value of 17566. The latest close of the Nifty February futures is on similar lines to the Nifty 50. The 50 scrip benchmark closed down 43 points at 17511 lower. 17455 low should serve as immediate support for the falling Nifty. A decisive drop below 17450 could trigger the decline to resume. In this case, it could fall towards 17200-17150. However, if it does not collapse, it may recover towards 17750-17850, where the upper band of the falling channel lies.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400   

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 23 FEB 2023

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Indian equity benchmarks closed 1.5% lower on February 22 as earnings booking was extended for the fourth session, amid investor concerns over further central bank rate hikes and the US Federal Reserve minutes released later in the day. New nuclear warnings from Russia to West also dampened sentiment on Dalal Street. The Nifty50 gapped down and remained under pressure forming a long bullish candlestick pattern on the daily charts on February 22nd. Domestic indices suffered huge losses on Wednesday, dragging Nifty 50 below 17560 and Sensex below 59750. Bank Nifty broke the crucial level and closed below 40000 as negative global market sentiment sparked a bloodbath on Dalal Street. The Nifty fell 272 points to 17554 and Sensex tanked 927 points to 59744. The only winners in the Nifty 50 were ITC (up 0.50%) and Bajaj Auto (up 0.26%), while Adani Enterprises (down 11, 05%), Adani Ports (down 7.24%), Grasim (down 3.44%), Bajaj Finance (down 2.94%) and JSW Steel (down 2.79%) were the losers. The Nifty made lower highs and lower lows for the fourth straight session, decisively breaking the 200-day EMA at 17592 and the support trendline bordering the June 2022 and February 1st lows, indicating negative strength for the Market suggests support for the benchmark index lies at the budget daily low and 200 SMA from 17350. A break of this level could result in strong selling pressure in the market.

Resistance: 17600, 17800, 18000

Support: 17500, 17400, 17300

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 22 FEB 2023

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Nifty ended flat after a volatile trading session. Benchmark indices ended marginally lower in the volatile February 21st session. At the close the Sensex was down 18 points to 60,672 and the Nifty down 18 points to 17826. The bias remains negative as it dips back into the descending channel on the intraday chart. Also, the momentum oscillator RSI has entered a bearish crossover. However, the Nifty opened with gains, however selling pressure built up at higher levels as the day progressed and the Nifty closed down 18 points. Looking at the hourly charts, we can observe that the key hourly moving averages acted as stiff resistance in the 17900-17950 area and the morning rally fizzled out after hitting this resistance area. On the hourly momentum indicator, we can observe that positive divergence is developing, which is a sign that the selling pressure is easing. Therefore, the price and momentum indicators provide divergent signals and in such a scenario, consolidation is very likely. Consolidation range is likely to be around 18,150 to 17700. In terms of levels, 17900-18000 will serve as the immediate hurdle, while on the downside, the 17675-17625 coinciding with the 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level will serve as crucial support to watch out of short-term perspective. On the downside, immediate support is visible at 17600 , below which selling pressures may increase.

Resistance: 18200, 18300, 18400   

Support: 18100, 18000, 17900