NEXT WEEK NIFTY PREDICTION & CHARTS 1 OCT TO 5 OCT 2018

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY:11200,11300,11400

 PIVOT POINT: 11000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  10900,10800,10700

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 10950,11000,11100

PIVOT POINT:10900

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  10850,10800,10750

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

This has been clearly the worst week for our markets in last few months. We have been correcting right from the word go, started on Monday and Friday was like adding insult to the injury. At one point on Friday, index and the broader market was falling like a pack of cards; threatening market participants to a great extent. Fortunately, we did manage to give a decent recovery from lows and have closed at the make or break level.  It has been a rather jittery start to the October series. The Nifty has stayed below 11,000-mark on Friday.

The week started flat positively, the rub-off effect from the last week dragged the indices lower right from the word go. During the day, the bears clearly had the upper hand as markets remained under pressure and the Nifty ended below 11000 mark. Tuesday opened slightly higher very much in line with the Nifty; but once again it turned out to be a formality. After some initial consolidation, the index eventually started correcting and in fact the momentum accelerated as the day progressed. In the second half, the index eventually slipped below its important psychological support of 11000 and then remained stagnant in the last hour of the day. On Wednesday the ecstasy of the northward direction halted as we witnessed strong bout of selling on account of depreciating domestic currency, global trade war, rising crude prices and some concerns over few NBFC’s. In the course of action, index corrected almost 6% in the September series to conclude tad below the important psychological level of 11000. Despite this carnage in the broader market, IT counters clearly bucked the trend as we saw giants like ‘INFY’ and ‘TCS’ went on to clock fresh record high. On Thursday market opened slightly higher very much in line with the SGX Nifty; but once again it turned out to be a formality. After some initial consolidation, the index eventually started correcting and in fact the momentum accelerated as the day progressed. In the second half, the index eventually slipped below its important psychological support of 11000 and then remained stagnant in the last hour of the day.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 10800; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11200

Now, if we have to analyze the index on weekly and Monthly chart, we can see index precisely testing key Fibonacci ratios and thereby giving some ray of hope for the bulls. In addition, for Nifty, the daily close has come above the daily ‘89 EMA’, which is another sigh of relief. But, if we look at the second major index, Bank Nifty, it does not give any encouraging sign at this point in time. Hence, next week would be quite crucial for our markets to set a near term trend. For the coming week, 11250 followed by 11350 would be seen as immediate hurdles. If index has to gain some kind of strength, it should first take out these barriers convincingly with an authority. On the other hand, if we fail to do so and again slide below 10950 - 10109008, then it would certainly not augur well as we may see a sharp slide once again to test lower levels. Hence, as trader, our advice would be to stay light on positions. We may see higher volatility going forward and hence, aggressive positions should be strictly avoided.

Broad range for the week is seen from 10800 on downside & 11300 on upside.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

The market is likely to see a shaky start on Monday and we expect some pullback. In the event of any weakness, the 100-DMA level at 10900 will be extremely important to watch out for at close. We are likely to witness volatile oscillations before the market stabilizes and inches higher. On the higher side, Nifty might face resistance around 11225 and 11275 levels. The RSI on the daily chart stood at 53.8861. It has marked a fresh 14-period low and this is a bearish signal. A bearish divergence was also seen, as the RSI marked a fresh 14-period low, while the Nifty did not. The daily MACD continued to remain bullish even as it traded above its signal line. It is important to note that unless the previous week’s low of 10860 is taken out, Nifty’s primary uptrend will remain intact and the market will remain well inside the 29-month-long upward rising channel on the higher timeframe charts.  It is important to note that unless the previous week’s low of 10,866 is taken out, Nifty’s primary uptrend will remain intact and the market will remain well inside the 29-month-long upward rising channel on the higher timeframe charts.  We recommend traders to preserve liquidity and refrain from taking any aggressive bets on either side until stability returns and Nifty shows a definite directional bias. Nifty moving past the 11,170 mark and trading above this mark would. important to avoid any major weakness. A highly cautious view is advised for the day.