NEXT WEEK NIFTY PREDICTION & CHARTS 24 DEC TO 28 DEC 2018

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 10900, 11100, 11100

 PIVOT POINT: 10800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10700, 10600, 10500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

it was a premature end of the "santa rally ". Today market was seems like bulls packing their bags for Christmas vacation. We have seen a pre-Santa Claus rally in the sense that last seven or eight sessions, the indices have run up from the lows. From Thursday onward, we have seen some sort of correction and that correction is of that earlier upmove. Market is reverting to mean after outperforming for several days also Rumors about govt giving sweeping powers to 10 agencies for surveillance & Unwinding ahead of year-end holidays; investors taking profit off in view of global uncertainties. on week ended friday  Sensex tanks over 700 points, Nifty came below 10,750 mark.  Nifty started the trading week on a cheerful note. This was followed by some consolidation; but once again good buying emerged in the penultimate hour to extend this lead to conclude the session tad below the 10900 with decent gains of nearly eight tenths of a percent.  In Tuesday’s second session Dow Jones had more than 500 points drop to close around the lowest point of the current calendar year. This sell off was triggered with the fear of fed announcing rate hike for the last time this year. This had a rub off effect on our market. However, we must appreciate the fact that our markets are showing tremendous resilience and hence, we did not have the major damage. In fact, post the sluggish first half, we saw strong buying emerging at lower levels due to which index shaved off all losses and eventually went on to close above the 10900 mark with nominal gains. On Wednesday we did not see major momentum during the day, index managed to close above its recent high with broader market participating to a greater extent.  Thursday’s weak session was a knee-jerk reaction to the relentless selling in US markets post the FOMC meet. Subsequently, the index remained under pressure for the major part of the session. However, quite similar to the recent trend, index recovered during the latter half and pared down almost all losses to close on a flat note. The domestic equity market ended the day on a flat note despite a weak opening.  

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 10600; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11100

Market breaks below 200-DMA The level of 100-DMA, which is presently at 10700, assumes great importance now. The Nifty index end the day with a loss, but it has rested on the 100-DMA.  Next week we may see some stability and the intraday trajectory of the market will be important to watch. Moreover, the behavior of the market against the 200-DMA will remain an important thing to be observed.  The levels of 10980 and 11200 will act as immediate resistances, whereas key supports may come in at 10600 and 10500.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is 60.96 and it remains neutral against the price. Weekly MACD remains bullish as it is above its signal line. Apart from a white body that emerged, no significant formations are seen on candles. From pattern analysis, it is evident that the Nifty has managed to cross the falling trend line pattern resistance. This pattern resistance is in the form of a trend line that joins the high of 10900 with subsequent lower tops. Though Nifty has managed to cross it, it has halted its upward movement near its 200-DMA. The short-term indicators on the weekly chart remain slightly overstretched and Nifty continues to stare at some possible consolidation.  Given the underlying strength in the market, such consolidation may not result into any significant downsides, but the market continues to remain vulnerable to profit booking at higher levels. More I would say it is because of the holiday, shortened week, the end of the year coming by, probably smart money booking some profits, taking money home and on the side there are not enough fires that is causing this sharp movement. We still feel that in the near term, we have not seen the top. So we may make an attempt to go higher either by the end of December or early January.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

We approach the expiry of the current derivative series and we expect the session to not only remain dominated by rollovers, but also get impacted by volatility. Next week is likely to see the Nifty opening on a flat note and look for directions. We though the week has session ended with loss, the market breadth remained a concern. It remained negative and the Nifty’s upmove lacked the conviction it required. The behavior of the Nifty vis-à-vis the levels of 200-DMA will be important to watch.  Market further extended their fall, with the nifty giving up 10,800, while the Sensex is down over 550 points. The Sensex was down 552 points at 35878,. Nifty slipped 162 points, to 10788.  India volatility index, which had been falling consistently over this week or so, witnessed a sudden jump of over 9 %in morning session to rule at 15.6. Global worries appeared to have made investors nervous going into a long week. Nifty’s wave pattern suggests, it has completed a five wave triangular corrective pattern and a five wave down trend may have started, unless the index breaks above the December 19 high of 10,985 points. Nifty’s wave pattern suggests, it has completed a five wave triangular corrective pattern and a five wave down trend may have started, unless the index breaks above the December 19 high of 10,985 points. A close below 10,831 points, the 23.60 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the bounce from December 11 low to December 19 high (wave E),though, may lead to a fall up to 10,736, the 38.2 per cent retracement level, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, other technical indicators are still positive like the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the longer term 200-day EMA and MACD is positive and above its signal line.