NEXT WEEK NIFTY PREDICTION & CHARTS 18 FEB TO 22 FEB 2019

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 10800, 10900, 11000

 PIVOT POINT: 10750

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10700, 10600, 10500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY 

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 10800, 10850, 10900

PIVOT POINT: 10700

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10650, 10600, 10550

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY 

Bears continued to dominate as nifty closed at 10700 mark. After giving a good move of nearly 500 points in last week, the rally halted on the day of RBI Monetary policy. It was quite surprising to see massive sell off on the following week. Monday morning, despite global markets consolidating with a mild positive bias, nifty started on a weak note. In fact, this negativity increased in the initial hour, dragging Nifty well below the 10900 mark. Fortunately, due to emergence of some buying at lower levels, Nifty managed to trim decent portion of losses to eventually close with half a percent cut. On Tuesday tracking the muted global cues our markets witnessed a flat to negative opening. Subsequently, there was boredom during the major part of the session as Index traded within a very slender range. Eventually during the last hour of trade Index witnessed one more bout of selling to end with a loss of around half a percent at 10831. Wednesday had a gap up opening, owing to cheerful mood across the globe. Nifty sneaked below the 10800 mark by shedding 0.35% from the previous close. Thursday Markets looked nervous right from the opening tick, taking cues from the SGX Nifty and other Asian bourses. Index consolidated throughout the first half by maintaining a negative bias. However, post the mid-session; we witnessed a sudden spurt in the market, which subsided after a while. But the highlighting part was the outperformance of the broader market in the latter half. Although, index corrected once again, we saw tremendous improvement in the market breadth.  Nifty closed at 10746 on Thursday. On Friday muted domestic earnings and weak global markets hurt the sentiment. Nifty ended 0.20% lower at 10724.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 10600; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @10900

Clearly, our market looks depressed and such times can be extremely frustrating for traders as well as investors fraternity.  Going ahead, if market has to see a robust move, it would be very important for other pockets to participate as well.  In the next week 1700 will be the sacrosanct level. This key support has been violated now and going ahead, we would be closely tracking how index behaves around 10700. A sustainable breach of it would lead to further correction towards 10600 or below. In the upward direction, 10850 – 10900 are the levels to watch out for. 

 TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

Nifty has now erased more than 50% of recent rally (10583-11118) and the relentless fall has broken the support of 200DMA@10850 by a small margin. Now, there is last ray of hope for the bulls which is 61.8% retracement of the above-said rally coinciding with 90EMA at 10800 - 10780. Technically, in recent months we have seen 61.8% retracement acting as pivotal for reversal and hence can play a make or break role. Going ahead we need to closely watch the price action around 10700 as a close below the same may open doors for further weakness in the near term whereas any kind of positive trigger around it may bring the bulls back in action. On the flip side, 10900 can act as an immediate hurdle. Traders are advised to keep positions light and avoid undue risks. Although, we are precisely at 61.8% retracement of the recent up move and a formation of ‘Bullish Wolfe wave’ on chart keeps us interested; but considering recent underperformance, it’s better to wait for a confirmation beyond 10850 in order to trigger some positivity. Traders need to understand that we are typically in that sort of period when no analysis works, market does not respect any level and hence, everyone is left clueless about the direction. In such times, it’s always better to stay light and wait for clear signal to emerge.  At this juncture, a prudent strategy would be to stay light and follow a stock specific approach. One could switch on to the aggressive mode only after Nifty surpassing the 10900 mark along with the broader market participation. In this scenario, a move towards 11100 – 11200 cannot be ruled out. Only a sustainable move below 10900 would give a dent to above mentioned optimistic scenarios.