NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 17 FEB TO 21 FEB 2020

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12200, 12300, 12400

 PIVOT POINT: 12100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  12000, 11900, 11800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12150, 12200, 12250

PIVOT POINT: 12110

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  12075, 12035, 12000

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Nifty Started the week on negative note. Sensex falls 162 points. Nifty50 remained in the negative terrain for the second consecutive session on February 10 as fast-spreading China's coronavirus raised fears over global growth. The index managed to defend 12,000-mark, but closed below 50-day exponential moving average (which placed around 12,054) and formed a bearish candle on charts as closing was far lower than the opening price.On Tuesday Bulls staged a smart comeback after 2 days of resting. Positive outlook by the principal economic adviser also aided domestic sentiment.  There have been some encouraging signs with respect to the spread of coronavirus as news reports suggested that the epidemic could plateau in the next few weeks. However, it continues to remain one of the key monitorable for global markets, including India. On the domestic front, the last leg of earnings announcement would induce stock-specific volatility. Further, key macroeconomic data like CPI, IIP and WPI would also be actively tracked by the investors and traders. The Sensex snapped 2-day losing spree & went up by 237 points at 41216 & Nifty reclaims 12100 up by 76. Though the market movements would be linked to global market sentiment in the short run, the ultimate direction would be decided by domestic earnings. On Wednesday Bulls come back strongly and pushed above 12200 mark tracking gains in Asian markets, on hopes that the worst of the coronavirus in China may have passed. Positive commentary from the government and some encouraging data from Reserve Bank of India also helped the market sentiments to get raised. The Sensex rose 350 points to close at 41566, while Nifty climbed 93 points to settle at 12201. On Thursday Bulls looked little scared as investors reassessed the scope of the coronavirus outbreak after China's Hubei reported a record rise in the death toll. A Surprise drop in industrial output for December and a rise in January inflation to a six-year high also dampened the sentiment. The Sensex dipped 106 points, to 41460 levels. The Nifty gave up the 12200 mark to settle at 12175, down 27 points. Indian indices were trading at day's low in final hour of Friday's session as banks and telecom stocks remained under pressure after the Supreme Court rejected the plea seeking new schedule of AGR payments and ordered contempt proceedings against Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea. The Sensex was trading 230 points lower at 41230 levels. The Nifty hovered around the 12100 levels, down 67 points & finally closed the week at 12113.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 12000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @12300

Post the sharp up move of around 500 points seen during the last week, the index seems to have entered a consolidation phase with 12100 – 12000 acting as support levels whereas on the flip side, 12150 – 12225 acting as an intermediate hurdle. The primary trend remains bullish and posts some further consolidation we expect Index to surpass the above resistance and extend optimism towards 12300 – 12400 levels. Traders are hence advised to avoid contra bets and trade according to the above-mentioned levels.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

Next week is likely to see a tentative start, with 12275 and 12350 levels acting as resistance, while support may come in at 12100 and 12000. In the event of a corrective move, the trading range is likely to get broader than usual. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the chart was at 53.62, and it stayed neutral, showing no divergence against the price. The MACD was bullish and traded above its signal line.
As per pattern analysis of the chart, Nifty has remained in a broadening formation. While staying in this range, the index is likely to form a lower top if it does not move above 12250. On the lower side, it is resting just above the 50-DMA. The market has a tricky zone to navigate in order to move above the 12250 level. Until this happens, it can mark a lower top at 12250 and face weakness. The headline index has closed above the 50-DMA level at 12120. Holding on to this level will be important, as any breach below 50-DMA may invite some weakness. Nifty needs to hold above 12200 to witness an upmove towards 12275 and then 12350, while major support has shifted to 12000.