NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & VIEW FOR NEXT WEEK 26 MAY TO 29 MAY 2020

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 9200, 9500,9700

PIVOT POINT: 9000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  8700, 8500, 8300

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 9100, 9200, 9300
PIVOT POINT: 8950

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  7900, 7800, 7700

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

We had a positive start for the week, Bear stranglehold became stronger as government's ₹20 trillion economic stimulus package failed to cheer the street. Market changed drastically in the starting of the new week. The Sensex crashed 1000 points & nifty also came near 8800 mark. While Sensex dropped 1068 points, to 30028, Nifty dropped 313 points to 8823. Tuesday market ended on a bullish note, after three straight sessions of losses but failed to hold on to day's high levels after the company reported a healthy 15.1 % year-on-year (YoY) growth in consolidated revenue at Rs 23723 crore for the quarter ended March 2020 (Q4FY20). Wednesday Sensex and the Nifty ended with over 2% gains on hopes of further stimulus from the government to support economic recovery. The  Sensex rose 622.44 points or 2.06% to close at 30818 while the Nifty settled 187 points higher at 9066. In an interview Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government would assess the need for further economic measures as the situation evolves. "As we go along, we will see. We cannot shut the doors," she told these to the newspaper, when asked if there would be another economic package. The expiry of weekly options kept Dalal Street in a highly defined range on Thursday. Yet, the indices extended their up-move and ending the day with modest gains. Nifty saw a positive and stable opening to the day and remained in a rising upward trajectory in the first half of the session.  Friday Nifty snapped the three-day gaining streak to settle nearly 1% lower on Friday after RBI Governor announced to slash repo rate by 40 bps to 4%. RBI MPC also said that it expects the GDP growth for this fiscal to remain in negative territory. The Nifty  dropped 67 points to close the session at 9039.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 8600; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @9500

For the coming week, 8700-8500 would now be seen as crucial support and any decisive move below this would certainly negate the hopes of any recovery, at least for a while. On the flipside, 9000 followed by 9300 remains to be an immediate hurdle now.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

This week’s correction was clearly a surprise for most of the market participants, including us. Especially the global peers that stood firm throughout and we didn’t even rebound once looking at them, which was quite unusual. For us also, although after breaking rock solid support of 9000, some sort of long liquidation was expected but the initial move was so swift that we got deceived by a contradictory pattern on charts. Hence, going forward we need to see whether we get any follow through selling and in the process, the said pattern (Bullish Wolfe wave) gets negated or not.  Nifty has halted near the 50-DMA, which currently stands at 9,112. The 50-DMA may act as resistance on a closing basis; the behaviour of the index against this price level at close will be very important to watch over the coming days. If Nifty manages to move past and close above the 50-DMA, it may extend itself to the falling trend line. However, it will not result in any change of trend, which currently remains downward.
 Nifty is likely to face resistance at 9200 and 9300 levels in the next week. Supports will come in at 8800 and 8600 levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 48.01; it remsins neutral and does not show any divergence against price. The PPO remains negative. The daily MACD remains bearish as it trades below its signal line. A small white body emerged on candles as Nifty ended higher than it opened. This can be classified as a Spinning Top, given the small size of the real body. This remains insignificant in the current technical setup. Pattern analysis shows Nifty again is consolidating below its immediate resistance point of 50-DMA, which currently stands at 9100 and is expected to act as a support on the closing basis. If the Index moves past this level, then it can extend its up-move to a limited extent. We have an extended weekend this time, as Monday is a trading holiday. There are possibilities that Nifty will wear a cautious look ahead of because of expiry 28 may 2020. We reiterate the need to approach the market cautiously. It would be prudent to keep chasing the up-move, if any, through defensive and resilient sectors and stocks and protect profits vigilantly at higher levels.