NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & VIEW FOR NEXT WEEK 17 AUG TO 21 AUG 2020

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11200, 11350,11500

PIVOT POINT: 11100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11000, 10900, 10800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11250, 11350, 11430

PIVOT POINT: 11050

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10950, 10900, 10850

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Week kick started proceedings with a decent upside gap, owing to cheerful global bourses. However, in the initial trades, our markets extended gains rapidly and, in the process, not only hastened towards 11300 but also surpassed it convincingly. However, post the initial exuberance; nifty slipped into a consolidation mode since the verdict on Telecom’s AGR dues was awaited. In fact, during the latter half, traders chose to take some money off the table to be on the safer side. Despite all this, Nifty managed to close with precisely half a percent gains to reclaim the 11250 mark. Similar to Monday’s session, Tuesday too we had a gap up opening in the wake of relentless run in Global peers and this time it was on account of Russia claiming the vaccine for COVID-19. Subsequently, our markets cooled off a bit after the initial up move; but once again regained strength in the latter half. Eventually, the Nifty ended the session above the 11300 mark. Tuesday night US markets gave up its sizable gains and eventually ended slightly inside the negative territory. This resulted in some nervous start in our market on Wednesday. However, the recent undercurrent has been extremely strong and hence, with global peers rising this afternoon, our markets too recovered from lower levels to reclaim the 11300 mark on a closing basis. Thursday, we opened slightly higher in the wake of smart rally in global markets previous night. The lead extended marginally in the first half. But all of a sudden, the index dipped lower during the midsession. However the damage was not big as index recovered gradually and then slipped into a consolidation mode. Eventually, the weekly expiry on 13 august 2020 panned out flat precisely at 11300.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11400

It is clear that the bulls are not willing to give up; but at the same time, it doesn’t have enough strength to go beyond the sturdy wall of 11350-11400 as well. If we take a glance at the chart, we can now see a ‘Tri Star’ pattern. As the name suggests, it requires three consecutive small body candles in a specific position, where the middle candle is slightly higher than first and third candle. Taking this into consideration, we continue with our cautious stance on the market. If this pattern has to get confirmed, the Nifty needs to break below 11100, which will result in some immediate correction towards 11000-10800.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

In last couple of sessions, although the undercurrent has been positive, index is clearly lacking the momentum; because the real focus has shifted to the individual stocks, especially from the broader market. In fact, the banking space was the real charioteer as it kept showing sheer outperformance throughout the week. With all due respect to such positivity, we still remain a bit skeptical and would continue advocating caution around current levels. In such kind of euphoric situation, it is hard to take such view but the way overall things are panning out, does not give us comfort at all. In last four months, we never sounded such cautious, in fact strongly advised using all decline to go long; but we do not maintain the similar opinion now. We have been advocating some caution, because Nifty has approached a strong resistance zone of 11300- 11370 and although there is no sign of weakness yet, it will not be easy for the index to overcome this sturdy wall. Only a major trigger on the global or domestic front would be required if we have to unfold the next leg of the rally. Till then better to take some money off the table and wait for further development. Now with Friday’ price action, the chart depicts a ‘Doji’ pattern. This indicates some uncertainty and this clearly reflects what we explained in the above section. But with such price behavior, Friday’s low has now earned some significance. Going ahead, if we sneak and sustain below 11150, this will result in some immediate decline towards 11100 – 11000 - 10900 levels. So till the time, midcaps are offering better opportunities, one should keep capitalising on it; but we reiterate, aggressive bets are strictly not recommended and taking timely profits always makes sense to be on the safer side.