WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17400, 17500, 17600
PIVOT POINT: 17300
WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY: 17200, 17100,
17000
WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY
DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17375, 17425, 17475
PIVOT POINT: 17325
DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY: 17275, 17225, 17175
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY
Our markets
had a pleasant start to this new week owing to favorable global cues. In the
course of action, Nifty reached yet another milestone of 17400. However due to
lack of follow up buying, the up move got restricted for the day. Market didn’t
correct either, in fact it remained in a slender range of nearly 60 – 70 points
throughout the remaining part of the session. The benchmark index started the Tuesday
session with marginal upside gap precisely at 17400. However due to some profit
booking in the initial hours, Nifty came off sharply to slide tad below the
17300 mark. Fortunately no further damage done as bulls once again defended the
key support and thereafter lifted the Nifty back above the 17400 terrain.
Towards the end, sceptical traders used this bounce back to lighten up longs,
which resulted in a small decline to conclude the session with a negligible
loss. We had a flat opening on Wednesday in line with quiet global cues.
However the intraday movement was exactly a replica of Tuesday’s session. After
consolidating above 17350 throughout the first half, the index suddenly started
correcting post the midsession and within no time, it tested the 17250 mark.
Once again the mighty bears came for a rescue and lifted the benchmark to a
comfortable position. Market closed closed 0.09% higher on Thursday. All eyes
will be on the Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal's press conference at 4 pm.
Markets are anticipating the European Central Bank's policy decision as it is
expected to claw back stimulus today, taking a token step towards unwinding the
pandemic mandated emergency aid. The Sensex closed at 58305, up 54 points, while Nifty was at
17369, up 15 points. Friday market will be closed on occasion of Ganesh
Chaturthi.
NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17000;
STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17500
We
witnessed a see-saw like price movement during the session, but the overall
range was not very wide as index kept vacillating within the boundaries of not
even a percent. At the end, Nifty managed to close slightly below 17400 with
some hint of profit booking at higher levels. Price-wise, there is no damage
visible yet but we continue with our cautious stance on the index. Also, in our
previous commentary, we had mentioned about Nifty confirming first sign of
weakness if starts trading below previous week’s high of 17340. Yesterday it
did trade below this point but rebounded sharply from the key support of 17300.
In practical terms, we reckon this development as good enough evidence for
early sign of weakness/ profit booking. The benchmark index Nifty looks a bit
uncomfortable around 17400 but the moment it falls by nearly a percent, the
buying tends to happen immediately. So ideally both counterparties are trying
to show their presence. As of now, clearly bulls are having a firm grip on the
market but as we have been mentioning since a week or so, they would find a bit
difficult now going ahead. With a short term view, we remain cautious and
advise traders booking profits in the rally. As far as levels are concerned,
17400 - 17450 remains to a sturdy wall; whereas on the flipside, 17300 - 17250
are the levels to watch on a closing basis.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.
Nifty
has been enjoying a strong Bull Run since last 16 – 17 months and in last few
weeks also, it gave some mesmerizing moves. Although the recent momentum has
been exceptionally strong, we can see some extreme levels in benchmark index
now. If we take a broader view, we can see Nifty reaching the 200% ‘Fibonacci
Retracement’ of the last year’s massive decline from Jan’20 high to March’20
low. Also time- wise, Nifty has entered 7th zone as per ‘Fibonacci Time Series’
on the monthly time frame chart. We do not want to sound pessimistic but since
couple of important key ratios are coinciding at current juncture; it will be
unfair to overlook them. There has been no stopping for benchmark index and
every day we are seeing new milestones being achieved. Before anyone could
realise, we have conquered 17400 as well. The rally has been steady in nature
but the kind of elevated levels we have reached now, it’s too fast too furious.
Hence, although the trend is extremely strong, we remain a bit sceptical and
continue to advise booking profits in the rally at least with a short term
view. As far as levels are concerned, 17450 – 17500 would be seen as immediate
hurdles and the moment we slide below 17340, we may see some decent profit
booking towards 17250 – 17200.
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