NIFTY OUTLOOK & VIEW ON SBIN RESULT & RBI MONETARY POLICY 7 FEB TO 11 FEB 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17615, 17724, 17835

PIVOT POINT: 17475

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17350, 17225, 17175

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTYDAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17550, 17650, 17750

PIVOT POINT: 17450

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17350, 17250, 17150

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTYThe global markets feel good and started the new trading week with happy tones. After the gap opened, the market gradually rose to test the 17400 level in the middle of the session. Since then there has been little activity in the benchmark index. This is because range bound moves were seen, suggesting some gains towards the end. Finally, Nifty ended a riveting session above 17300, adding nearly 1.5% to the Bulls kitty. Similar to the previous session, our markets started with a decent move higher on Tuesday on the back of favorable global cues. That early morning lead extended nearly to 17600 before the budget speech. However, once it started, the market went into a consolidation mode and waited for a trigger from this event. The moment it ended we had a little bout of sharp profit booking around mid-session. In the blink of an eye the market not only erased all gains but also slid into negative territory to test the key 17250 support. Fortunately, this turned out to be an overreaction by cautious traders and hence the powerful bulls jumped at the opportunity to take the market once again to the daily high. The Indian stock market had an upbeat trading day on Wednesday, taking inspiration from buoyant global markets. After the budget day, strong sentiment was spread by the participants who helped the indices surge higher and ended Wednesday with a strong bullish candlestick pattern. Broad-based buying impacted all sectors and the advance-decline ratio has further eliminated optimism among market participants, with 40 on the long and 9 on the lagging side of the NIFTY50. The Indian stock market ended its winning streak for three consecutive days and saw decent profit booking at higher levels on Thursday. The mixed global cues played a major role in the session correction, which intensified in the second half as the index tested the intraday low of 17511 until the last minute and ended the day down 1.24 % at the level of 17560 finished. Benchmark indices ended negative in the volatile Feb. 4 session as selling was seen in PSU bank, auto and real estate stocks. At the close, the Sensex was down 143 points or 0.24% to 58644 and the Nifty down 44 points or 0.25% to 17516. Approximately 1554 stocks are up, 1704 stocks are down, and 87 stocks are flat.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17200; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

Since Thursday, February 3rd, 2022, the Nifty has been in a rocking motion. A clear trend is still emerging. On the upside, the Nifty needs to conquer 17750-17850 for a meaningful bull rally to begin. On the downside, 17300-17200 needs to be broken on a tight base for the trend to turn bearish. Until none of the levels are taken out, the market remains volatile.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Markets ended on the weak side after spending most of the trading sessions in negative territory as investors turned to more profit-taking after the recent rally. Although most other Asian indices ended in the green, European indicators struggled in the early stages of trading, dampening domestic market sentiment. Technically, the Nifty traded above the 50-day SMA but saw profit booking near the 20-day SMA or 17850 level. The dexterous position at the 50-day SMA level is largely positive. On weekly charts, the index has formed a bullish candle in the upper shadow, indicating indecisiveness between bulls and bears. However, on the daily and intraday charts, the market is consistently forming a higher bottom that supports the uptrend. For traders, 17450-17350 would be the sacrosanct support level. Furthermore, the index might continue the upward movement towards the 17750-17850 level. On the other hand, the uptrend below 17350 would be vulnerable and could trigger short-term weakness to 17200-17150. Next week, markets will be the first to react to the SBI numbers on Monday 7th February 2022 and the upcoming RBI monetary policy review will also be on the radar. Their commentary on inflation and economic growth will be an important factor to watch given the Fed's dovish stance. While the benchmark could continue to consolidate, we believe volatility would be difficult to manage across the board. Therefore, we recommend maintaining a cautious stance and keeping an eye on leveraged positions.