NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 27 MARCH TO 31 MARCH 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,569	17,851	18,359	17,062	16,779	16,272	15,990
Fibonacci	17,363	17,550	17,851	17,062	16,760	16,574	16,272
Camarilla	17,359	17,431	17,504	17,062	17,214	17,142	17,069

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17569, 17851, 18359

PIVOT POINT: 17062

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16779, 16272, 15990

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17363, 17550, 17851

PIVOT POINT: 17062

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16760, 16574, 16272

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

 

We had a soft start to the new trading week on March 21, 2022 as indicated by sluggish global peers. Aside from an opening hour, Nifty remained under pressure for the rest of the session as it grinded slowly and steadily. Due to a lack of buying interest, the Nifty eventually ended the session down almost a percent just above the 17100 level. Similar to Monday's session, we had a soft open on Tuesday morning as indicated by Nifty. The weakness widened for the first few hours as we witnessed a decent correction in financials. As a result, Nifty gradually approached its psychological level of 17000 during the first half. However, buying suddenly reappeared out of nowhere and within a blink of an eye markets were well off the daily lows. Buying momentum accelerated towards the end to not only erase all losses but also close above 17300 for more than a percent gain. Tuesday's smart rebound was followed by a gap to the upside on Wednesday on favorable global evidence. However, the market got a bit nervous again as the reference index entered a crucial point of 17400-17500. In the first half we saw a gradual decline in the benchmark and then some consolidation during the remaining part to end the session just below the 17250 level. Surprisingly we had a downside gap below 17100 on Thursday  much lower than what SGX was showing. But this anomaly was immediately rectified as we saw Nifty rebalance in the opening trades after retaking the 17150 level. It approached 17300 around the middle of the session, but once again some jitters in the financial sector pulled the benchmark lower to finish the weekly expiration with a negligible loss. On Friday, indices ended in the red amid a volatile March 25 trading session, with the Sensex falling 233 points to 57362 and the Nifty falling 69 points to 17153 as commodity prices rose, monetary policy tightening and inflationary pressures. The domestic market is showing strong resilience, but to maintain the trend, much will depend on the outcome of the war and commodity prices. The easing of COVID restrictions in India is a boost for sectors like Hospitality, Multiplex & Transport etc leading to outperformance.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16780; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17570

The recent rebound has certainly eased some pressure, but ongoing geopolitical tensions coupled with a surge in COVID cases in China will continue to keep participants on their toes. On the index front, sustainability above 17569 would pave the way for the 17851-18359 zone. In the event of a dip, the 16779 to 16272 zone would act as a buffer. Participants should focus on sectors/stocks showing resilience and adjust positions accordingly.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Indian equity markets continue to be in a grind, influenced by and reacting to mounting news from the global front, particularly regarding the geopolitical situation and Fed rhetoric. The two main challenges and monitors for markets in the near term are persistent inflationary pressures and rising bond yields. While inflationary pressures have been building in recent months, the geopolitical situation has worsened the situation as Ukraine and Russia are big players in energy and several commodities, and the prices of some of these commodities have risen sharply since the beginning of the crisis. An ongoing geopolitical situation and elevated prices will gradually weigh on demand and profitability and may result in growth and earnings estimates being trimmed. The recent rise in bond yields may also have an impact on capital flows and stock valuations. As markets have pulled back sharply over the last few weeks one can try to get some liquidity as the uncertainty and volatility is likely to continue for some time with too many moving parts creating intermittent opportunities. Nifty showed a marginal decline during the day, but closed flat. Nifty still has around four trading days before March 2022 expiry. Nifty is in a strong trend and the pattern of higher highs and higher lows are still intact on the lower time frame. On the weekly time frame, price continues to be in a steady up trend as MACD is in a buy mode and the RSI is in a steady uptrend. Nifty does show a potential to be in a steady uptrend till the end of March expiry. On the upside, Nifty does have a potential to 17363-17851. Support for Nifty is at 16760-16272. Any fall to 16760-16272 is a buying opportunity. As long as support at 116760-16272 holds this market is a buy on dip opportunity.