NIFTY WEEKLY PREDICTION & TRADING TIPS FOR 18 APRIL TO 22 APRIL 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	18,066	18,347	18,580	17,833	17,552	17,319	17,038
Fibonacci	18,030	18,151	18,347	17,833	17,637	17,515	17,319
Camarilla	17,831	17,879	17,926	17,833	17,737	17,690	17,643

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The shortened week started on a weak note on 11 April 2022, which was based on the global stock exchanges. The benchmark Nifty50 index moved in a narrow range throughout the session, indicating market participants are cautious. The index ended the lackluster day in red, down 0.62% to settle slightly below the 17700 level. The Indian stock market got a muted start on Tuesday, gapping lower, following weak global signals. Benchmark index Nifty50 tumbled below the crucial 17500 support zone in initial trading and remained range bound for most of the session. There was some sort of recovery at the bottom of the tipping point that helped the Nifty bounce slightly, but a correction set in soon after. Finally, the index ended the day just above the 17500 level, down 0.82%.Market ended lower for the third consecutive session on April 13 on the last trading day of this week with Nifty below 17,500.At Close, the Sensex was down 237 points at 58338, and the Nifty was down 54 points at 17475. Though the global markets have already factored higher levels of inflation owing to high fuel and food prices, the unfavorable numbers dampened investor sentiments. The ECB policy decision will be closely monitored for direction on how the Central bank plans to balance slowing growth and record-high inflation. With the onset of the earnings season, the market is likely to be buoyed by sector specific momentum.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17400; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

Currently, the 17400 level should be closed as any decisive close below it could dampen the inherent bullishness in the market. Placing the index above its significant exponential moving average could be seen as a last resort of relief for the bulls. Meanwhile, the earnings season is expected to play a crucial role in the short-term trend movement. Currently, the index placement on the chart shows the lost traction due to the shortened week followed by the earnings season. However, the market undertone is likely to remain in favor of the bulls until 17400 level remains intact. Looking at the recent price action in the index, 17600 is expected to act as a buffer for any decline, followed by the 17400 level's sacrosanct support zone. On the contrary, the bullish momentum was seen once the critical 17900- 18000 was decisively breached. 

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Nifty has experienced profit taking and tested the first line of defense i.e. H. 20 EMA. Signs point to a recovery on the weekly monthday; However, the upside may also remain limited. According to the derivative data, the 17700-17800 zone is holding a strong resistance for the day while 17600 would act as a cushion. Participants should consider a buy-on dips approach. The NSE Nifty 50 Index can trade in the 17400-17700 range. Nifty ATM options implied volatility also suggests little volatility on either side of this range in the monthly session. The opening minutes of the session show that the 17600 saw high put writing activity. On the other hand, on the upside, call writing is seen at the 17700 and 17800 levels, although the maximum call OI is at 18000. In any case, given the very high amount of call OI at 17700-17800, the tops from current levels will remain limited and markets could spend the day in sideways movement as far as intraday moves are concerned. India VIX, a market volatility indicator often referred to as a fear gauge, is currently trading at 18.25%, down from 19% last week. The Nifty ATM options implied volatility for the current series is 15.90% as opposed to 18.23% last week, indicating low volatility on both sides during the monthly session. Nifty OI distribution of put options shows that 17500 has the highest OI concentration followed by 17400 and 17300 which could serve as support for the current month and on the call front was 17600 followed by 17700 and 17800 , witnessing significant OI concentration and may act as resistance for April 21, 2022 expiry. On the weekly options, call writing was seen at 17,600 strikes followed by 17,700 & 17,800, while on the put side, notable writing activity was seen at the 17,500, 17,400 & 17,200 strikes. Options data points to an immediate range between the 17800 and 17300 levels.