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Indian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak to a third day on June 7 amid fears that the Reserve Bank of India will hike interest rates the next day when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concludes its meeting. At the close, the Sensex fell 568 points to 55107 and the Nifty lost 153 points to end the day at 16416. Asian equity markets were mixed on Tuesday after a sell-off in US bonds on fears of higher interest rates. A surprise 50 basis point rate hike in Australia (the highest in 22 years) raised concerns about monetary tightening ahead of US inflation data and a European Central Bank meeting this week. Crude oil continued to trade at $120 a barrel, which could further fuel inflation. Not only CPI inflation but also US inflation would be closely watched by the Street this week. Volatility in the market forced investors to remain on the sidelines ahead of the RBI policy announcement as the market had priced in an increase of up to 50 basis points for the repo rate and CRR but any further action to limit liquidity had an impact would have on the market trend. Monetary policy measures aside, the RBI's growth and inflation forecasts would drive the market trend. We expect a rate hike of 40-50bps on June 8th and expect rates to hit 5.15% by August/October. The government's recent actions will help keep the rate hike relatively contained, although the determination of the final rate will be much more data-dependent given changing global conditions. Technically, the downside risk for the Nifty is 16620. If make-or-break support holds at 16620 then expect bulls to regroup with aggressive targets at 16875 -16950 with a week-to-week perspective. The Nifty 200-DMA can be seen at the 17250 mark. Traders should be particularly wary of interest-rate sensitive companies and favor less volatile stocks for day trading. On the index front, the bias will turn negative below 16400 otherwise the consolidation will continue with the upper band at 16550-16650.
Resistance: 16500, 16600, 16700
Support: 16400,
16300, 16200
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