NIFTY WEEKLY PREDICTION & TRADING TIPS FOR 20 JUNE TO 24 JUNE 2022

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 15400, 15800, 16200

PIVOT POINT: 15100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  15000, 14800, 14600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 15350, 15450, 15550

PIVOT POINT: 15250

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  15150, 15050, 14950

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The weak macro factors related to rising inflation and upcoming Fed policy have wreaked havoc on the global stock market. The impact was also seen in our equities section, which started the week of June 13, 2022 on a weak note, with an initial drop of almost 2% that worsened throughout the day. The tepidness among participants was evident as the market showed no signs of reversal or strength at the lower levels. Finally, the benchmark index ended the day down over 2.64% to the 15774 level. The Indian stock market started with another gap to the downside on Tuesday, June 14, 2022, tracking the decline in global stock markets after confirming that Wall Street had reached the bear market milestone. However, our market retaliated shortly after the opening bell and gradually appreciated the momentum to march higher. Although hesitancy was felt among participants at the higher level, this detracted from initial gains. And with the market whipping action, the benchmark index Nifty50 ended the day down another 0.27% in the critical support zone in red. The domestic market got off to a slow start on Wednesday 15 June 2022 with the benchmark index remaining in a tight range for most of the period with no clear direction. Reluctance ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting was evident among market participants. Finally, the lackluster session ended on the downside, shedding 0.25%, just below the 15700 level. Our market followed the positive global stock markets and started on Thursday 16th June 2022 with a gap to the upside. However, no significant strength was seen at the higher levels and the benchmark index gradually slipped to break the critical support of the 15700 odd zone. The general sell off further put the damper on the market sentiment with the Nifty eventually ending the day down over 2% at the 15360 level. Even the most fervent FOMO gnome had a crisis of conviction as a number of central banks followed the Fed's lead in raising interest rates. Taiwan rose 12.50 basis points, the Bank of England rose 25 basis points and the Swiss National Bank shocked markets by raising interest rates by 50 basis points. It was probably the SNB that brought back the camels, because if the Swiss are worried about inflation, then we should all be. The Fed's policy statement, along with the updated economic outlook, solidified the Fed's move to a single-mandate central bank and underscored the priority of bringing inflation above all to 2%. With slower growth and higher forecasts for the unemployment rate, the Fed's latest economic forecasts underscore what we think has been a key pivot in its outlook as policymakers seek to actively contain demand. Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and NSE Nifty50 fell on Friday 17 june 2022 following a sell-off on Wall Street as caution persisted in most global markets amid growing worries about recession. Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the sixth consecutive session on June 17 with Nifty below 15300. At close, the Sensex was down 135 points at 51360, and the Nifty was down 67 points at 15293.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 14800; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 15600

Rising inflation and monetary tightening by global central banks are forcing the market to price in the possibility of a recession. With central banks' monetary policy tone pointing to further rate hikes of greater magnitude, we can expect FIIs to continue their selling spree. The domestic market will continue to trade with high volatility in the short term, however the ongoing corrections are hidden opportunities in medium to long term investments. Nifty is expected to trade with bearish bias and use any rally as a selling opportunity until it sustains below the 15500 zone.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The technical chart has been disrupted by the crackdown from the critical support zone, suggesting that there is more room for a market decline in the near term. Currently, the Nifty is hovering right where it was a year ago, sweeping all the years win. In terms of technical parameters, the market is somewhat in the oversold territory and the 15200-15000 zone could provide a temporary stay for the bears. For now, the 15500-15800 zone is seen as a daunting task for the bulls. Going forward, our market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, reflecting the movements of global competitors. Given the recent drop, it is prudent to avoid undue risk and keep positions small. Also, one must keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and avoid aggressive betting until volatility has passed. The battle between bulls and bears continued in the Bank Nifty Index on the final day of the trading week. The index is trading in oversold territory and if it holds the 32,500 support, a retracement rally towards the 33,500 level may occur. The downside support, if broken, will lead to a fresh round of selling towards the 30,000 level.