NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TECHNICAL VIEW FOR COMING WEEK 18 JULY TO 22 JULY 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16100, 16300, 16500

PIVOT POINT: 15800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  15700, 15600, 15500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 16000, 16100, 16200

PIVOT POINT: 15950

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  15900, 15800, 15700

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

On Monday 11  july 2022 markets remained in negative territory for most of the trading session, although they drifted into positive territory at some point towards the end before reversing the trend and ending in the red. IT stocks led the weakness in major benchmark indices after Friday's TCS Q1 results failed to cheer the road. Also, the downtrend in European markets in early trading continued to dampen sentiment at home. Market indices rebounded from intraday lows but ended with minor losses in the volatile July 11 session. At the close the Sensex was down 86 points at 54395 and the Nifty was down 4 points at 16216. Technically, after the early morning sell-off, the Nifty found support at 16150 and rallied sharply. On Tuesday 12 July 2022 Sensex and Nifty50 fell around a percent on Tuesday amid weakness in global markets as investors continued to be nervous about sharp rate hikes and their impact on economic growth. Losses in most sectors dragged headline indices lower, with financials, IT and FMCG stocks being the main detractors. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices each fell about half a percent. Shares of HCL Tech fell almost 2 percent as investors anticipated the IT company's financial results due later in the day. As for India, our own history is not that problematic, but our inflation is on the higher side. But part of that is imported inflation, driven significantly by fuel prices, which are a big factor in the Russia-Ukraine problem. After the weak start, the benchmark continued to drift down and settled around the daily low. Consequently, the Nifty index settled at 16058; down 1%. Profit-taking was widespread and most sector indices closed lower. On 13 July 2022 Wednesday’s trading session after experiencing volatility in the first half; markets moved down in the final hour of trading as weak global indices dampened sentiment. Despite the sell-off in recent sessions, investors were trading cautiously and not taking long bets amid recession worries in the west that could hurt demand. China's decision to impose restrictions to combat the spread of the virus is also making investors nervous. On 14 july 2022 Markets remained volatile on the weekly expiry day and ended slightly lower. After the initial uptrend, the benchmark drifted lower and traded with a negative bias for most of the session. However, a rebound in select index majors over the past hour has mitigated some losses. As a result, the Nifty index settled at 15938; down 0.18% while industry indices traded mixed, with IT, banks and real estate ending losses while oil & gas, energy and consumer discretionary ended with gains. Indian indices followed weak leads in global markets, reversing early gains amid concerns over higher-than-expected US inflation data. Investors are increasingly expecting the Fed to hike rates by at least 75 basis points this month to combat high inflation. On the domestic front, India's WPI inflation eased in June, although remaining at elevated levels, but is expected to ease further over the course of the year. Benchmark indices ended flat in the extremely volatile session on July 14th. At the close, the Sensex was down 98 points to 53416 and the Nifty was down 28 points to 15938. Global markets were shaky as US inflation turned out to be worse than expected; Boost bets that the Federal Reserve could become more aggressive with its interest rate hikes. The market is simply following the herd mentality as most global indices showed weakness, prompting domestic investors to further reduce their stock holdings. Investors sold their positions in quality technology stocks on concerns that the slowdown in the West and US could squeeze margins for domestic IT companies. Indian equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 are likely to start the final session of the trading week higher amid mixed movements in global markets. Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures, a leading indicator for the Nifty index, rose as much as 34 points, to 15967. Concerns remain over the prospect of steep US interest rate hikes hurting economic growth. Disappointing earnings from two big banks, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, weighed on investors' risk appetite, although dovish comments from two Fed central bankers offered some support. At home, investors awaited more financial results from India Inc. At close on Friday 15 july 2022, the Sensex was up 344 points at 53760, and the Nifty was up 110 points at 16049.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 16500

The index stayed sideways as it was a lackluster session on the last day of the week. However, the index was able to regain the 16,000 mark in the end. The momentum indicator ended with a bullish crossover. In the short term, the index could move towards 16170-16200. On the lower end, support is visible at 15900-15850.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Markets remained volatile but eventually ended with modest gains and took a breather after the recent plunge. After the initial uptrend, the benchmark remained rangebound for most of the session, however buying interest in select index majors over the last hour contributed to a positive close for the index. On the benchmark front, the Nifty settled at 16,049.20; increased by 0.7%. Among sectors, most sectors traded in tandem, with autos, consumer discretionary and capital goods being the biggest gainers. The broader indices also gained in the 0.6% to 0.9% range. Markets will first react to the numbers from major banking group HDFC Bank in early trading on Monday. In addition, the performance of global indices, particularly US markets, and the movement of crude oil will remain on participants' radars. Overall, we recommend continuing with a positive but cautious approach until Nifty holds 15950 and focusing more on stock selection. The rupee has traded in a range between 79.80 and 79.98. With the Dollar Index trading in a range, the trend for the Dollar is broadly positive until above $105. The next hurdle for the dollar is seen around USD 110 hence the rupee's weak trend towards 80.50 can be seen to continue. 79.25 will act as resistance for the rupee and a break above 79.25 will trigger short cover for the rupee. The rupee range can be seen between 79.50 and 80.50 for the week ahead. The Bank Nifty index saw some buying from the previous gap zone but the trend remains sideways. Index downside support stands at 34,400 and resistance at 35400. The index needs to break the range on both sides to get a clear trend. If the index breaks the 34300 support, it will result in further selling pressure towards 34100 where the most open interest will be built on the put side. The Nifty stumbled near several technical parameters for the past week, hovering near 16250. It has been hovering near the 16000 level for the past few sessions. An inside bar has formed on the weekly chart, indicating a loss of momentum. The hourly chart shows that the index has moved down from the top of a rising channel to the bottom. The near-term support zone for the index is between 15900 and 15800. Once this is broken, the index may slide towards 15500. From a trading perspective, sell on rise is the strategy for short-term traders with a reversal above the 16250 swing high.