NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 29 MARCH 2023

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Indian markets remained in the bears' grip as investors remained cautious on anticipation of further RBI tightening. While global market sentiment has improved as fears of broader contagion from the banking turmoil recede. At home, Nifty's small- and mid-cap stocks continued to underperform, buoyed by the decline in investor risk appetite and tax receipts in FY23. Nifty fell marginally on March 28 ahead of the fiscal year-end. It consolidated for the third straight day between 16,900 and 17,100. On the hourly charts, Nifty is trading between 16900 and 16950 where the Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.82% and 78.6% of the previous rise from 16825 to 17210 lie. The market ended lower on Tuesday in a volatile session on March 28th. At the close the Sensex was down 40 points to 57613 and the Nifty was down 34 points to 16951. Global equities were mostly higher as concerns of broader contagion from the banking turmoil eased. Nifty closed at a low of almost five and a half months, lagging the other markets in recent sessions. 16750-17050 could be the trading range for the Nifty in the near term. Selling related to tax losses may have come to an end and we may soon see the Indian markets moving in line with other markets. Amid volatile moves in intraday trading, the major indexes ended marginally lower, underperforming most of their Asian peers. Aside from gains in select banking and metals stocks, other sectors saw profit taking as caution prevailed ahead of Wednesday's F&O exit. 

We expect volatility to remain high in March due to the scheduled expiry of derivatives contracts. On the index front, participants have been trying to defend 16,900 in Nifty for the past three sessions and its collapse could trigger a sharp downside reaction. Needless to say, the recent sell-off in broader indices could deepen further. We therefore reiterate our view to limit trading and maintain positions on both sides. We believe this is a make or break zone and if the pullback rally needs to resume at all it will likely be from here. The daily and hourly momentum indicators have a positive crossover, which is a buy signal. Therefore, both the price and momentum indicators are pointing to positive price action in the next few trading sessions. On the upside, initial targets are 17150 and beyond that it can increase to 17,450-17,500. The crucial support zone is at 16925 -16850.

Resistance: 17000, 17050, 17100

Support: 16950, 16900, 16850