NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 27 MARCH TO 31 MARCH 2023

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17000, 17250, 17500

PIVOT POINT: 16900

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16800, 16600, 16400

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Despite SGX was indicating a sluggish start, our markets opened marginally in the red  on 20 march 202. However, without wasting much of a time, the selling resumed across the broader market. The Nifty kept on sinking to not only slide below 17000 but also went on to challenge the Thursday’s low of 16850. Fortunately, some buying emerged after posting a low of 16828 around the midsession. The recovery extended towards the fag end to reduce the damage to merely 0.65%, a tad below the 17000 mark. 21 march 2023 morning, the global screen was extremely pleasant as there was some relief with respect to recent developments. Our markets started the session on a positive note and after some midsession hesitancy, the buying resumed in heavyweight pockets like banking and RELIANCE. In fact, the momentum accelerated towards the latter part of the day to reclaim 17100 on a closing basis by adding seven tenths of a percent to the bulls’ kitty. We started off on a positive note on 22 march 2023 and in the initial trades, Nifty retested the 17200 mark; courtesy to extended relief move in US markets. However, we couldn’t capitalize on to this head-start as key indices slipped into a consolidation mode thereafter. Despite flirting with positive and negative terrain for a major part of the session, the last hour buying pushed Nifty slightly above 17150 to conclude with nearly three tenths of a percent gains. After US bourses experienced a sharp sell-off following the key FED policy, the DOW futures made a remarkable recovery in the morning; hence, the SGX Nifty indicated a mild negative opening for our markets. On 23 march 2023 The Nifty started on a sluggish note and the initial dip was absorbed comfortably to retest the 17200 levels, suggesting a possibility of much-needed relief in our market. However, a sell-off in the penultimate hour poured complete water on this attempt to retest morning lows. Eventually, we concluded the weekly expiry with a loss of 0.44% at 17077. Benchmark indices ended lower on March 24 with Nifty below 17000. At close, the Sensex was down 398  points at 57527, and the Nifty was down 131 points at 16945. Cues from both the global and domestic markets were subdued. The asset management industry was hit hard by tax changes and the elimination of the indexation benefit of debt mutual funds. The volatility was fuelled by weak European markets, which was driven by banking stocks as CDS spread increased. Although all major sectors traded in the red, selling in the IT sector was limited despite warnings of muted growth.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

The recent fall has faded hopes of sustained recovery and we might again end up seeing range bound moves in the index. Needless to say, the major support is intact at 16800 in the Nifty. We thus reiterate our view to limit positions and maintain positions on both sides.

 TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The Nifty witnessed an extremely volatile day of trade today. It was consolidating in a narrow range during the first half of the session. However, as the day progressed and especially during the last couple hours of the trading session, the Nifty witnessed intense selling pressure which dragged the Nifty lower to close with a cut of 132 points. On the charts we can observe that the Nifty is trading in the zone of 16900 – 17000 where the crucial Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous rise from 16825 – 17175 are placed. This zone shall be the make or break support zone and if the Nifty fails hold on to this support, it is likely that the Nifty have started the next leg of the fall.The daily momentum indicator has a positive crossover which is a buy signal and is also supporting our view that the pullback rally is not complete. Thus considering the above, we shall continue to maintain our positive outlook on the Nifty. On the upside the initial hurdle is pla ced at 18200 – 17250. Beyond this it has the potential to 17275 – 17450.