NIFTY PREDICTION FOR NEXT WEEK 7 AUGUST TO 11 AUGUST 2023

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 19600, 19800, 20000

PIVOT POINT: 19400

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  19200, 19000, 18800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

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Nifty resumed the uptrend on July 31 after a two-day decline, helped by positive global signals and buying in IT and metals stocks. At the close, Nifty was up 0.55% or 107 points to 19753. Volumes on the NSE continued to be higher. Broad market indices rose more than the Nifty, despite the advance drop ratio rising to 1.93:1. Asian stock markets are mostly higher on Monday after broadly positive signals from global markets on Friday and hopes of more stimulus from Beijing for the ailing Chinese economy after a drop in factory activity in July. In Europe, equities were mixed as the eurozone returned to growth in the second quarter on the back of falling inflation, despite GDP growing 0.3% qoq. Headline inflation in the euro zone fell to 5.3% in July. Nifty rebounded after a two-day decline and is now moving towards the 19825-19875 range. In the fall, 19550 could provide support. The broader market is doing even better, even though the earnings season has peaked for two weeks. Nifty gained 2.94% in July.  On 1 august in the absence of a new trigger, investors booked some gain. The domestic market is trading at a premium valuation. With the June quarter numbers not coming in better than expected so far, the stretched valuation is likely to trigger a market correction. The current rally is causing valuations to move beyond comfort levels. Sensex now trades at 25 times last year's earnings. It is important to note that the rally is being driven by P/E expansion and not corresponding earnings growth. Earnings growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 is subdued except in the banking sector and refining. The results indicate that rural demand has not yet picked up significantly. After opening 5 points higher at 66532 from the previous close of 66527, the Sensex remained volatile throughout the session, hovering around 270 points. The index finally closed 68 points lower at 66459, while Nifty ended the day down 20 points, at 19733. On 2^nd august he benchmark indices had a rollercoaster ride as the opening session was dominated by bears, but short coverage has emerged in the last few hours. Global equities fell on Fitch Ratings' downgrade of US Treasury debt, prompting a quick retreat from risky assets. Sensex closed at 65782.78, down 1.02%and Nifty closed at 19526.55, slipping 207 points, or 1.05 percent. While Bank Nifty closed the session at 44995.70, it was down 1.31 percent. The weakness also spread to broader markets as Nifty Midcap and Small Cap ended lower. India VIX is up 9.73% on the day to settle at 11.28. Nifty's put-call ratio remains at the 0.75 level. The Nifty opened a gap on the downside today and continued to drift lower throughout the day to close around 200 points down. On 3^rd august Global markets are still grappling with the impact of the US rating downgrade as bond yields soar and the dollar index rises. However, the pharmaceutical sector weathered the storm thanks to strong earnings results, while mid and small cap stocks outperformed the benchmark index. The domestic services PMI beat market expectations, hitting a 13-year high on a surge in new orders, particularly in international sales. Indian benchmark indices closed lower on August  3 with the Nifty below 19400. At the close, the Sensex was down 542 points, to 65240 and the Nifty was down 144 points to 19381. On Friday Benchmark indices closed higher on August 4 with the Nifty above 19500. At the close, the Sensex was up 480 points, to 65721 and the Nifty was up 135 points to 19517.

NIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

Technically, Nifty may move up and down in a tight channel with biggest hurdles at 19600  mark while intraday support is seen at 19300 mark.

 TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Markets witnessed respite after the recent fall and gained over half a percent. After the gap-up start, Nifty hovered in a band throughout the session and finally settled at 19518 levels. Meanwhile, a mixed trend on the sectoral front kept the traders busy wherein IT, pharma and banking posted decent gains. The broader indices too participated in the move and gained nearly a percent each. Nifty has rebounded after testing the support at 19,300 but failed to reclaim the short-term moving average i.e. 20 EMA. We need sustainability above the same for further recovery else the decline would resume. Though we are seeing a dip in the global indices too, their trend hasn’t reversed yet, which is offering some comfort. Amid mixed signals, we advise staying selective and keeping a check on position size. All eyes will be on next week’s RBI monetary policy after the recent surge in food prices. Traders are pricing in no change on Aug.10 meeting.