Title: HDFC Bank Shares: Target Prices Post Q4 Update

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HDFC Bank's recent Q4 business update has elicited varied responses from analysts, reflecting on the bank's performance and its future prospects. While deposit mobilization has remained strong, concerns persist regarding the bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) and its impact on medium-term loan growth. Here's a summary of analyst opinions and target prices for HDFC Bank post the Q4 update:

Analyst Insights:

1. Nomura India: Reiterates 'Neutral' rating with a target of Rs 1,625, citing downside risks to loan growth despite a 15% loan CAGR over FY24-26F.

2. HSBC: Sets a target of Rs 1,750 on the stock.

3. Morgan Stanley: Projects a target of Rs 1,900.

4. Macquarie: Sets a target of Rs 2,000.

5. Nuvama: Notes strong deposit growth but soft loan growth as part of the bank's consolidation strategy, suggests a target of Rs 2,000.

6. InCred Equities: Highlights improved credit-to-deposit ratio and expects stable margins, suggests a target of Rs 2,000, citing confidence in the bank's asset quality profile and potential positive surprises in operating leverage.

7. Motilal Oswal Securities: Suggests a target of Rs 1,950, emphasizing the anticipated rise in deposits despite moderate loan growth. Expects stable margins and asset quality for the merged entity in the March quarter.

Key Observations:

• Deposit growth remains robust, supported by healthy CASA deposits.
• Concerns over loan growth persist, attributed to a conscious consolidation strategy.
• Improved credit-to-deposit ratio provides comfort to analysts.
• Stable margins and asset quality expected for the merged entity in Q4.
• Analysts highlight business growth guidance and earnings trajectory as key monitorables going forward.

Financial Projections:

• Motilal Oswal Securities anticipates a 29.9% YoY rise in net profit at Rs 15,653 crore for the March quarter.
• Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by 24.8% to Rs 29,144 crore.
• Nuvama forecasts a gain of Rs 9,600 crore from Credila sales to be booked in the quarter.

Conclusion: Analysts maintain a mixed outlook on HDFC Bank's performance post the Q4 update. While deposit growth remains a strong suit, concerns over loan growth and the bank's LDR persist. Stable margins, asset quality, and future guidance will be closely watched for further insights into the bank's trajectory.