Wednesday, May 1, 2024

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING ADVICE FOR THURSDAY EXPIRY 2 MAY 2024

Market Overview: In a highly volatile trading session, the Indian stock market experienced a reversal of intraday gains, closing lower amidst selling pressure primarily seen in the IT, metal, media, and oil & gas sectors. The Sensex ended the day down by 188 points or 0.25% at 74,482, while the Nifty closed lower by 38 points to 22,604. Despite the day's decline, both the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 indices managed to post a 1% rise for the month of April 2024.

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Market Performance: The market initially saw positive momentum, with Nifty reaching a fresh high and Sensex nearing its record level, driven by gains in auto, power, and realty stocks. However, a surge in selling during the final trading hour wiped out these gains. Notable gainers on the Nifty included M&M, Power Grid Corporation, Shriram Finance, Hero MotoCorp, and Bajaj Auto, while Tech Mahindra, BPCL, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, and Sun Pharma were among the top losers.

Sectoral Performance: Sector-wise, auto, power, and realty sectors outperformed, each posting gains of more than 1%, while IT, metal, media, oil & gas, and healthcare sectors witnessed declines ranging from 0.4% to 1%.

Broader Market Indices: The broader market indices displayed mixed performance, with the BSE midcap index reaching a new high and closing 0.5% higher, while the smallcap index ended flat.

Market Outlook: Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook for the market. While the ongoing positive trend remains intact according to the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), today's bearish candle and potential RSI divergence signal caution. A break and close above the day's high could negate the bearish implications, while trading below 22,500 may lead to further downside towards the 22,400-22,360 zone.

Individual Stock Movement: Several stocks including Ashok Leyland, Axis Bank, Eicher Motors, ICICI Bank, M&M, SBI, among others, touched their 52-week high on the BSE. Notable volume spikes were observed in TEC, Jubilant Foodworks, and Exide Industries. Long build-up was seen in REC, PFC, and M&M, while short build-up was observed in IOC, Birlasoft, and Aditya Birla Capital.

Conclusion: The Indian stock market encountered volatility, erasing intraday gains to close lower amid sectoral fluctuations. While broader indices showed resilience, technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook with potential for further downside if key support levels are breached. Investor sentiment remains sensitive to global and domestic developments, warranting careful monitoring of market dynamics in the coming sessions.

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