Friday, September 20, 2024

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 23 SEPTEMBER 2024

Key Indices Performance:

  • Sensex: Up 1,359 points (+1.63%) to close at 84,544.
  • Nifty: Up 375 points (+1.48%) to close at 25,791

The Indian equity markets ended on a strong note on September 20, driven by global optimism and positive domestic sentiment. Nifty breached crucial resistance levels, marking a close near 25,800, while Sensex touched new heights above 84,500.

Market Overview: Nifty opened on a positive note, experiencing high volatility throughout the trading session but managing to hold key support levels. Nifty’s sharp rally in the last few hours pushed it to close near its upper range. On the daily chart, the index remains within a rising channel, with a short-term target of 26,000 in sight.

Bank Nifty also achieved a milestone, breaking past its previous all-time high of 53,350, closing the session near 53,800. The index is showing signs of strength and is now targeting the 55,000 level in the short term. Any intraday dips in Bank Nifty are expected to be buying opportunities.

Sectoral Performance: All sectoral indices ended in the green, led by strong performances from:

  • Auto: (+3%)
  • Banking and Financials: (+2-3%)
  • Realty: (+2%)
  • Metals: (+1-2%)
  • Capital Goods, FMCG, Healthcare: (+1-2%)

Sectors like auto and finance showed robust growth, likely benefiting from the Fed’s 50bps rate cut, which is expected to spur global liquidity and boost rate-sensitive sectors. Defensive sectors like FMCG also gained, driven by improving demand and lower input costs.

Top Gainers:

  1. M&M
  2. ICICI Bank
  3. JSW Steel
  4. Bharti Airtel
  5. L&T

Top Losers:

  1. Grasim Industries
  2. SBI
  3. IndusInd Bank
  4. TCS
  5. Bajaj Finance

Broader Market Performance:

  • BSE Midcap Index: +1%
  • BSE Smallcap Index: +1%

Broader indices participated in the rally, with both midcap and smallcap stocks rising by 1%. The market breadth was positive, with 2,346 stocks advancing, 1,434 declining, and 103 remaining unchanged.

Technical Overview: Nifty’s breakout above 25,550 resistance signals a strong bullish trend, with next resistance at 26,000. The short-term trend remains highly positive, with an expected consolidation or breather around 25,650. The market formed a decisive long bull candle on the daily chart, confirming the breakout from the previous range.

  • Immediate Support Levels: 25,500 - 25,450
  • Immediate Resistance Levels: 26,000, followed by 26,250 (as per Fibonacci extension).

Outlook: The market continues to ride the global wave, buoyed by accommodative monetary policies and strong economic cues. Sectors such as banking, financials, auto, and realty remain attractive for long positions. Despite intraday volatility, the overall trend appears to be positive, with more upside potential expected in the short term.

Conclusion: The Indian equity markets showed impressive strength despite volatile trading conditions, with key indices hitting new highs. Investors should continue to focus on index heavyweights and large midcaps for long positions, while keeping an eye on global cues, particularly from the US, which will continue to influence market direction.


Recommendations:

  • Use pullbacks in Bank Nifty and Auto sectors for accumulation.
  • Maintain long positions in FMCG and financial stocks, particularly in top-performing companies.
  • Short-term target for Nifty remains 26,000, with support at 25,500.

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