Key Highlights
Benchmark Indices Performance:
- Sensex: Down 110.64 points (-0.14%) to close at 77,580.31.
- Nifty 50: Down 26.35 points (-0.11%) to close at 23,532.70.
Weekly Decline:
- Both Sensex and Nifty dropped by 2.5% for the week, marking the second consecutive week of losses.
- Broader indices showed marginal relief, posting gains of 0.4%-0.8%.
Sectoral Performance:
- Positive: Realty, Auto, and Media sectors edged higher.
- Negative: FMCG, Pharma, PSU Bank, and Metals sectors saw declines.
- Midcap Index: Down 4% this week.
- Bank Nifty: Down nearly 3% this week, trading near critical support levels.
Market Insights
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Nifty:
- Current trading near its 200-day moving average (23,556), a crucial support level.
- Possible pullback range: 23,700 – 23,750.
- Downside risk: Target at 23,180, coinciding with the 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level.
- Bank Nifty:
- Support at 49,700 (200 DMA).
- Immediate resistance: 50,560 – 50,700.
- Nifty:
Market Sentiment:
- FIIs continue to remain net sellers, though the intensity of selling has eased.
- Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided support.
- Global factors, including a strong Dollar Index (106.61) and US 10-year bond yields (4.48%), weighed on sentiment.
Economic Indicators:
- Concerns over inflation, driven by rising food prices due to prolonged monsoons.
- Rupee depreciation to a historic low of 84.40/USD added pressure.
- Anticipation of increased government spending post-election year to support the economy.
Q2 Earnings Impact:
- Muted domestic Q2 earnings largely factored in, with consolidation observed over the past 1-2 months.
- Investors are now focused on IT and banking sectors for fresh cues.
Outlook and Recommendations
Technical View:
- Market remains in a downtrend; any pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to sell.
- Key Levels:
- Upside: Resistance at 23,700 – 23,750 for Nifty and 50,560 – 50,700 for Bank Nifty.
- Downside: Nifty support at 23,180; Bank Nifty support at 49,700.
Strategic Advice:
- Monitor leveraged positions closely due to volatility.
- Focus on sectoral trends, particularly in realty and auto, which have shown resilience.
- Exercise caution amid global uncertainties and inflationary pressures.
Key Events to Watch:
- Economic data releases and RBI’s commentary on inflation.
- IT and banking sector performance post-Q2 earnings.
Conclusion
Indian markets extended their losing streak into the sixth session as weak global cues, persistent FII outflows, and inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. While key indices are testing significant support levels, the overall trend remains bearish. A cautious approach is advised, with a focus on selective opportunities in resilient sectors like auto and realty.
No comments:
Post a Comment