Tuesday, November 19, 2024

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 21 NOVEMBER 2024

 Indian equity markets ended the day on a positive note amid heightened volatility. The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, managed to close in the green but well below their intraday highs due to late-session selling pressure.


Market Highlights

  • Sensex: Closed at 77,578.38, up 239.37 points (0.31%).
  • Nifty 50: Closed at 23,518.50, up 64.70 points (0.28%).
  • Market Breadth:
    • Advances: 2,197 stocks.
    • Declines: 1,591 stocks.
    • Unchanged: 95 stocks.

Key Market Trends

  • Opening Momentum: Strong cues from Asian markets and bottom-fishing supported a robust start, but gains faded in the second half.
  • Sectoral Performance:
    • Gainers: Media, Realty, Auto, IT, and Pharma (up 0.5%-2.5%).
    • Laggards: Metal, Oil & Gas, and PSU Banks (down 0.5% each).
  • Broader Indices: Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed, gaining nearly 1% each.

Technical Analysis

  • Nifty:

    • Resistance at 23,733 (40-hour average).
    • Strong support at 23,300, with 23,800 necessary for a trend reversal.
    • Formed a Doji candlestick pattern, signaling indecision.
    • Fibonacci retracement at 23,180 indicates a potential downside target.
  • Bank Nifty:

    • Closed near 50,800, falling short of intraday highs.
    • Weakness expected to persist with support at 49,700-49,800.
    • Resistance zone at 50,800-50,900.

Key Drivers

  1. Profit Booking: Investors used intraday surges to book profits, reflecting caution ahead of Maharashtra Assembly elections.
  2. Geopolitical Tensions: Reports of Ukraine's first ATACMS missile strike on Russian border regions heightened uncertainty.
  3. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Activity: While the pace of outflows has eased, consistent selling remains a key overhang.
  4. Earnings Impact: Weak Q2 earnings and stretched valuations continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Top Gainers & Losers

  • Gainers:

    • M&M: +3% (boosted by CLSA’s ‘outperform’ rating, with a target price of ₹3,440).
    • Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Trent, Eicher Motors.
  • Losers:

    • SBI Life Insurance, HDFC Life, Reliance Industries, Tata Consumer, Hindalco.

Outlook

  • Nifty: Bears maintain control, and "sell on rise" remains the dominant strategy unless a decisive move above 23,800 is achieved.
  • Sector Focus: Realty and Auto sectors are seeing renewed interest due to strong festive sales and correction-driven value buys.
  • Investment Strategy:
    • Stick to quality large-cap stocks.
    • Avoid rushing into mid and small caps despite their recent outperformance.

Market Closure

Markets will remain closed on November 20, 2024, for the Maharashtra Assembly elections.


Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial

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