Weekly Trading Report: February 10- February 14, 2025

 Market Overview:

Indian equity indices ended lower for the third consecutive session on February 7, with the Nifty closing below 23,600. The Sensex declined by 197.97 points (-0.25%) to 77,860.19, while the Nifty fell by 43.40 points (-0.18%) to 23,559.95. Market volatility persisted, reacting to the RBI’s monetary policy decision and broader economic concerns.

Key Highlights:

RBI cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% from 6.5%, in line with expectations.

The central bank projected India’s headline inflation for FY25 and FY26 at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively.

The US Dollar index softened due to disappointing US unemployment claims data.

Broader market indices traded mixed, with the Nifty Midcap index marginally up while the Smallcap index shed 0.3%.

Sectoral Performance:

Gainers:

Nifty Metal Index (+2.6%)

Consumer Durables (+1%)

Auto Index (+0.7%)

Losers:

PSU Bank (-1%)

FMCG (-1%)

Media (-1%)

Oil & Gas (-1%)

Stock Performance:

Top Gainers: Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Trent, JSW Steel, Hindalco.

Top Losers: ONGC, ITC, Britannia, SBI, Adani Ports.

Technical Analysis & Market Outlook:

Nifty maintained its short-term support at the 20 DEMA; sustaining above this level is key for a potential rebound.

 Short-term support: 23,450

Immediate resistance: 23,700

A decisive breakout above 23,700 could drive a rally towards 24,050.

The index remains volatile but retains a positive bias if it holds above 23,450.

Currency Market Outlook:

The Indian Rupee rallied following the RBI’s rate cut but remains under pressure due to weak domestic markets and dollar demand.

USD/INR expected to trade within Rs 87.20 - Rs 87.70.

Global uncertainty over US trade tariffs could weigh on the Rupee, but RBI intervention may provide support at lower levels.

Market Strategy for Next Week:

Stock-Specific Approach: With mixed earnings results and continued FII selling, investors should focus on select sectors showing strength, such as metals and auto.

Risk Management: Given the ongoing volatility, traders should maintain disciplined stop-loss levels and manage exposure carefully.

Macro Factors to Watch: US non-farm payroll data and global trade developments will be key factors influencing market sentiment.

 Conclusion:

The market’s direction next week will hinge on whether the Nifty sustains above 23,450. A breakout above 23,700 could trigger bullish momentum towards 24,050. Traders should remain cautious, considering global uncertainties and domestic market trends. Sectoral strength in metals and autos provides potential opportunities, while defensive plays in FMCG and oil & gas may remain under pressure.