₹20 TRILLION STIMULUS FAILED TO BRING SMILE ON INVESTORS FACE

Cheers for bears !!! Bear stranglehold became stronger as government's ₹20 trillion economic stimulus package failed to cheer the street. Market changed drastically in the starting of the new week. Sensex crashed 1000 points & nifty also came near 8800 mark. While Sensex dropped 1068 points, to 30028, Nifty dropped 313 points to 8823.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 13 MAY 2020

Bulls shown good strength before closing Tuesday session, indices staged a sharp recovery after buying in the second half and the Nifty closed just below 9,200-level. The Sensex fell 190 points to 31371 while the Nifty was down 42 points at 9196 at close. Fast rising Covid-19 cases in India and the second wave of infections in multiple countries, including Wuhan in China, gave stock market bears enough ammunition to push benchmark indices lower on Tuesday. Weak global market mood also weighed on the market sentiment back home.

NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & VIEW FOR NEXT WEEK 11 MAY TO 15 MAY 2020

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 9500, 10000,10500

PIVOT POINT: 9000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  8800, 8500, 8000
WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 9500, 9700, 10000

PIVOT POINT: 9100

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  8800, 8600, 8400

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Our markets started the new trading week with a massive gap down of 400 points. In fact, the selling momentum continued throughout the remaining part of the day to eventually conclude tad below the 9300 mark by shedding more than 550 points. Monday’s massive cut was followed by a good bump up at the Tuesday opening; courtesy to some relief move in global peers. This was followed by some consolidation in the first half as index kept flirting slightly above Monday’s close. However, in the latter half, the selling momentum aggravated across the board and as a result, the Nifty not only pare down all gains but also went on to close with a cut of nearly a percent. After two days’ of pain, we started marginally in the green on Wednesday. But it was merely a formality as we saw index taking a nosedive in initial trades. At one point, things looked extremely bleak as we hastened towards 9100 within a blink of an eye. Fortunately, a strong buying at lower levels lifted markets higher. During the second half, there were some wild swings seen on both sides but the bias remained positive and as a result, Nifty concluded well above the 9200 mark. Thursday morning, our markets opened flat and then immediately fell in-line with SGX Nifty. During the initial hour, we saw some marginal recovery, but this rebound immediately got sold into. During the remaining part, the Nifty consolidated in a slender range to conclude the weekly expiry precisely at 9200.Indian domestic market ended in green on Friday after erasing most of the morning gains. sensex ended 200 points higher & nifty ended the week near 9250 mark.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 8500; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @10000

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 17 APRIL 2020

After a bearish opening on back of global cues, the market bounced back and gave a strong recovery. Moreover, most of the time of the first half, the index traded in a range bound move, though after giving a breakout of the same, nifty made a high near 9090 level. During the trading session, we saw a good move in Banknifty compared to Nifty and settled with the gain of 2.3%. At present level, the nifty have a good support at 8800 while upside resistance comes at 9100, if the Index sustains above 9100 then we may see an upside movement up to the level of 9300.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 15 APRIL 2020

Nifty opened the week on a flat note on Monday April 13, 2020, but started correcting from first trade. It fell around 200 points within first hour of trade and then remained in sideways direction for the remaining part of the session. Despite the negative close, market breadth remains marginally in favor of the advancing counters. Nifty failed to hold 9000, & investors eyed PM Narendra Modi addressed on lockdown on 14 April 2020 at 10.00 AM & as expected prime minister declared that lockdown to be extended till 3 may 2020 as the Covid 19 cases are increasing in country. Nifty rallied almost 20% to hit 9000 mark on 13 april 2020. The Sensex ended 469 points lower at 30690, while Nifty was down 118 points at 8993. The market is shut today April 14 on account of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 13 APRIL TO 17 APRIL 2020

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 9200, 9500,9700

PIVOT POINT: 9000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  8700, 8500, 8300

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 9100, 9200, 9300
PIVOT POINT: 8950

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  7900, 7800, 7700
DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Nifty and Sensex snapped a seven-week losing streak, jumping about 13% in three sessions to Thursday. The indices recorded their best week since May 2009 and closed at three-week highs. As Monday market was closed on accounts of Mahavir jayanti , trading for the week started from Tuesday. Tuesday 7 April 2020 belongs to bulls. Before closing the market nifty hits the upper circuit.   Market is largely being driven by developments on the coronavirus front. A sustainable recovery would happen only when the cases start to recede in India and lockdown is eased gradually. Due to weak global cues market indices shown weakness in the last `hours of trading session in Wednesday, after some respite in Tuesday & Wednesday’s morning session. The Sensex traded above 29800 levels, with a cut of over 200 points while the Nifty was back below the 8750 level after surging as high as 9131 earlier iin the session.  The Sensex ended 170 points lower at 29893 while Nifty slipped to 8748. Banknifty slipped 116 points to 18946. Friday market is closed on accounts of Good Friday.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 7 APRIL 2020

With negative closing on the mast week ended Friday, the market fell for seven consecutive weeks for the first time since June 2008. The Sensex and Nifty have cracked 33% each in the last seven weeks. The  Sensex crashed nearly 700 points on Friday, led by losses in banking stocks, as investor sentiment remained jittery amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact. After hitting a low of 27500 during the day, sensex ended 674 points, lower at 27590. Similarly, the Nifty 50 settled below the 8100-mark at 8083, down 170 points. Despite day to day volatility, the Nifty has witnessed a parabolic sharp downside if we look at the weekly charts. Presently, the weekly charts are deeply oversold and despite the tentative trade setup, a technical pull back can be positively expected. If the immediate intraday low is held, the chances of a technical pullback would increase even if there is no confirmation of any temporary base in place. 

NIFTY "WHEN IN DOUBT WEAR RED"

Continuing downward trend, the market settled with over 2 % loss on Friday as coronavirus (Covid-19) cases showed no signs of abating. Global confirmed cases surpassed 1 million on Thursday with more than 52000 deaths. Back home, an ongoing 21- day lockdown has already brought the economy to a standstill. The Sensex ended at 27591, down 674 points, while the Nifty index ended at 8084, down 170 points.

WHAT IS VOLATILITY INDEX IN OPTION TRADING?

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We are making an attempt to explain VIX ,so that one can read and get the subject knowledge which would help one to trade in nifty accordingly.

What is Volatility exactly? Volatility is just a statistical term to measure the tendency of the market to fluctuate. Big fluctuations suggest fear, because they mean that investors are frantically changing their minds about what stocks are worth, in the face of great uncertainty. Smaller fluctuations suggest that investors are confident and they know what the stocks are worth.

Volatility Index: VIX is a measure of market's expectation of volatility over the near term. In simple words, Volatility Index (calculated as annualized volatility, denoted in percentage e.g. 20%) is a measure of the amount by which an underlying Index is expected to fluctuate based on the order book of the underlying index options.

VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. It is commonly called the VIX, and is often referred to as the "fear index."

India VIX is a volatility index based on the Nifty 50 Index Option prices. From the best bid-ask prices of Nifty 50 Options contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. i.e. higher the India VIX values, higher is the expected volatility and vice-versa.

INDIA VIX:

Specifications: India VIX is a volatility index based on the Nifty 50 Index Option prices. From the best bid ask prices of near term Nifty 50 Options contracts (which are traded on the F&O segment of NSE), a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days.

Calculation: Higher the implied volatility higher the India VIX value and vice versa. There are some differences between a price index, such as the Nifty 50 and India VIX. Nifty 50 is calculated based on the price movement of the underlying 50 stocks which comprises the index. India VIX is calculated based on the bid-offer prices of the near and mid month Nifty 50 Index Options. Nifty 50 Index is an absolute number, e.g. 4500, 5000 etc., whereas India VIX is a percentage value (e.g. 20%, 30% etc.). The factors which will be taken into account to calculate the index include the following:
1) Time to expiry of the options contracts of Nifty that are selected to calculate the index.
2) Interest rate: The NSE MIBOR rate is being considered as risk-free interest rate for the respective expiry months of the NIFTY option contracts.
3) A methodology called the forward index level is being used to select the contracts which will be used to calculate the index.
4) From these selected contracts, the best bid and ask spreads will be chosen.
5) Weightage is given to each of the options contracts that are chosen, as per the method adopted by the Chicago Board of options exchange (CBOE). The weightage of a single options contract is directly proportional to the average of best bid-ask spread of that option contract and inversely proportional to the option contract's strike price.
Significance: Whereas Nifty 50 signifies how the markets have moved directionally, India VIX indicates the expected near term volatility and how the volatility is changing from time to time. India VIX is a premier barometer of investor consensus of market volatility expressed through option pricing. VIX is a trademark of CBOE Incorporated and Standard and Poor's has given license to NSE, with permission from CBOE, to use this trademark in the name of India VIX and for purposes relating to India VIX.

INTERPRETATION:

The exact number given by VIX is what a statistician would call the "forecasted annualized standard deviation of returns." But don't let that mouthful put you off - it's actually quite simple. A VIX reading of 50 means that options prices are suggesting that, over the next year, stock prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of plus or minus 50%. A VIX reading of 20 would mean expectations that the market will fluctuate less, staying within a range of plus or minus 20%.

In most cases, a high VIX reflects increased investor fear or uncertainty and a low VIX suggests complacency or less stressful times. Historically, this pattern in the relationship between the VIX and the behavior of the stock market has repeated itself in bull and bear cycles. During periods of market turmoil, the VIX spikes higher, largely reflecting the panic demand for puts as the hedge against further decline in stock portfolios. During bullish periods there is less fear and therefore less need for portfolio managers to purchase puts.

By measuring investor fear levels tick by tick and day by day, the VIX, like many emotional gauges (e.g. put/call ratio), can be used as a contrary opinion tool in attempting to pinpoint market tops and bottoms on a medium-term basis. There are two ways to use the VIX in this manner. The first is to look at the actual level of the VIX to determine its stock-market implications. Another approach involves looking at ratio comparing the current level to the long-term moving average of the VIX.

BOTTOM- LINE:

The VIX is a contrarian indicator that not only helps investors look for tops, bottoms and lulls in the trend but allows them to get an idea of large market players' sentiment. This is not only helpful when preparing for trend changes but also when investors are determining which option hedging strategy is best for their portfolio. A point to remember is that, even though bench-marking the past is a solid way to determine the future, nothing is set in stone.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 3 APRIL 2020

The see-saw battle between the bears and the bulls continued on Dalal Street with the former dominating Wednesday’s session amid a rise in coronavirus cases in India. Worries surrounding a sharp drop in GDP growth rate also hit investor sentiment on Dalal Street. India has reported a sharp rise in new coronavirus cases in the last couple of days, indicating a community transmission. The country has reported nearly 1,400 confirmed cases of Covid-19 including 35 deaths and 123 discharged patients. The Sensex tanked 1203 points to 28265 & Nifty dropped 344 points to 8254.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 1 APRIL 2020

It was a day for bulls. Stock market bulls marched on Dalal Street with heads held high on the last trading day of fiscal year FY20 as relatively better factory output data from China supported the investor sentiment. Some support also came from the report that the government has put off implementation of the uniform stamp duty on transfer of capital market instruments to July 1, 2020. sensex today closed 1028 points higher at 29468, while Nifty rose  316 points to close at 8597.

MANIC MONDAY NIFTY BELOW 8300 MARK

Market indices were not having a good start of the week. Sensex tanks over 1000  points to close at 28440 & Nifty gone below 8300-mark to close the day at 8281. bears ran riot with coronavirus cases rising in India and abroad, taking lives and forcing businesses to shut down. Along with that a ceaseless dumping of stocks by the foreign investors is also weighing on investor sentiments.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 30 MARCH 3 APRIL TO 2020

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 9200, 9500,10000
PIVOT POINT: 8500

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  8300, 8100, 7800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 8900, 9000, 9100
PIVOT POINT: 8550

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  8300, 8200, 8100

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

This is clearly one of the worst phases the whole world is undergoing at present. Not only in terms of financials or economies but also in terms of health crisis. This uncertainty due to coronavirus pandemic is weighing down heavily on markets across the globe and it was yet another day of carnage for Indian markets. We opened the week significantly lower and after initial trades locked into a lower circuit for the second time in last 7 sessions. Unlike the previous circuit day, yesterday we didn’t even see a mild recovery; in fact the selling augmented to conclude yet another terrible day with a cut of 13%. Worldwide the trading screen was positive early in the morning on Tuesday  after US FED announced some measures to support the US economy in such difficult times. Hence, we had a good bump up at the opening after Monday’s mayhem. But surprisingly, we lost all the sheen in initial trades to slide tad below Monday’s low. Finally after an hour, market stabilised and started moving. Despite US markets posting a colossal overnight rally, we started the wednesday marginally in the red, which was mainly a hangover of PM Modi’s announcement on country lockdown for 21 days. After initial hiccups, we finally joined hands with our global peers and a strong buying across the board thereafter pushed Nifty significantly higher to reclaim the 8300 mark. Wednesday’s colossal rally was followed by a positive start for the thursday, despite some sluggishness in the global peers. After some initial consolidation, our markets picked up strong momentum to post positive close for the third consecutive day. Despite some intraday declines, the Nifty managed to add yet another three percent gains to Wednesday’s relief move and concluded the terrifying March series with nearly 15% recovery from lows.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 9500; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @7500

Let see how things shape up on the global front now. If we see the relief move getting extended in global markets, we would see some extension of this week move in our markets. For the coming session, 8000-7500 remains to be a key support; whereas on the higher side, 9000-9500 is the level to watch out for. If Nifty has to continue some relief move, the Nifty needs to surpass this hurdle convincingly to head towards 10000.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

Since Tuesday morning, almost all world markets were looking jubilant and despite we closing in the green, the reaction from our markets is not as similar as the rest of the world. Nevertheless, we have managed to defend 7500 and have shown some signs of relief on tuesday. markets are hinting towards a possible rebound and it was very much overdue also after recent relentless fall. All markets across the globe were deeply oversold and hence, a decent bounce back was on cards. For the day, we were observing 8000 as a crucial hurdle. The moment index surpassed and stayed for few minutes, we saw strong bout of short covering thereafter to head towards the mentioned zone of 8200 - 8400. Now market has given the most awaited rebound, but traders should not get carried away by this. It may extend further also, but the uncertainty with respect to coronavirus is still looming over. Till the time it does not subside considerably, we should avoid aggressive bets in the market. At present, it’s advisable to take one step at a time and momentum traders should look to book profits on a regular basis. Nifty precisely met the levels of 8200-8400-8600 one after another. Now technically speaking, the Nifty has displayed first sign of strength i.e. a convincing close above ‘5 day EMA’ after a month. In addition, the ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on daily chart has confirmed a positive crossover in deep oversold territory. Considering all this, we may see this up move getting extended from hereon. Going by technical observations if Nifty manages to stay beyond 8700- 8800 levels then we may see extension of the rally towards 9500-10000. Obviously we need not forget that current situation is different due to pandemic across the globe and hence, a possibility of whipsaws cannot be rules out. If above mentioned technical set up has to work well, things with respect to coronavirus should not aggravate in coming days.

NIFTY OUTLOOK BEFORE THE EXPIRY MARCH 25,2020

A relief day for the market participant nifty settled the day above 7800 mark. A volatile trading session ended on marginally positive note, but failed to retain the sharp recovery of morning session despite Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced several relief measures for the industry and ended in the green.

LOWER CIRCUIT ; SENSEX BELOW 27000 NIFTY AT 7900

The market was down 2,740 points, or 9.24 at 27140 levels. The index plunged to as low as 27197 level in opening deals before bouncing back slightly. The Nifty index fell below the 8000-mark, down 790 points, or 9.04%.

Indian equity markets resumed sell-off on Monday, in line with their Asian peers, as the governments the world over struggle to contain the fast spreading novel coronavirus (COVID-19). In India, various state governments announced lockdown in nearly 80 districts across the country as the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases inched towards 400. 

NIFTY BELOW 9000 MARK; MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 20 MARCH 2020

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Nifty continue to bleed in Thursday’s session as well due to worries over a case of community spread of the virus, investors fear further impact from Covid-19 and are preferring cash instead of investments. The Sensex closed the day at 28288 levels, down 581 points. Nifty ended at 8263, down 205 points.

NIFTY NEAR 9000 MARK; MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 17 MARCH 2020

Coronavirus impact continues on the market. Market closed near 8% down as moves by central banks across the globe to cut interest rates failed to calm nerves due to coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. The US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates in its second emergency move this month, while its major peers offered cheap US dollars in a bid to prevent global lending markets from collapsing. Reserve Bank of India governor is scheduled to hold a press conference later in the day with many market participants expecting a rate cut. Nifty closed down 7.61% at 9197 while the Sensex settled 7.96% lower at 31390.

BLOODBATH ON D-STREET

SENSEX DROPS 1500 POINTS NEAR 36000 , NIFTY NEAR 10550 DOWN BY 420 POINTS

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 17 FEB TO 21 FEB 2020

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12200, 12300, 12400

 PIVOT POINT: 12100

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  12000, 11900, 11800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 12150, 12200, 12250

PIVOT POINT: 12110

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  12075, 12035, 12000

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

Nifty Started the week on negative note. Sensex falls 162 points. Nifty50 remained in the negative terrain for the second consecutive session on February 10 as fast-spreading China's coronavirus raised fears over global growth. The index managed to defend 12,000-mark, but closed below 50-day exponential moving average (which placed around 12,054) and formed a bearish candle on charts as closing was far lower than the opening price.On Tuesday Bulls staged a smart comeback after 2 days of resting. Positive outlook by the principal economic adviser also aided domestic sentiment.  There have been some encouraging signs with respect to the spread of coronavirus as news reports suggested that the epidemic could plateau in the next few weeks. However, it continues to remain one of the key monitorable for global markets, including India. On the domestic front, the last leg of earnings announcement would induce stock-specific volatility. Further, key macroeconomic data like CPI, IIP and WPI would also be actively tracked by the investors and traders. The Sensex snapped 2-day losing spree & went up by 237 points at 41216 & Nifty reclaims 12100 up by 76. Though the market movements would be linked to global market sentiment in the short run, the ultimate direction would be decided by domestic earnings. On Wednesday Bulls come back strongly and pushed above 12200 mark tracking gains in Asian markets, on hopes that the worst of the coronavirus in China may have passed. Positive commentary from the government and some encouraging data from Reserve Bank of India also helped the market sentiments to get raised. The Sensex rose 350 points to close at 41566, while Nifty climbed 93 points to settle at 12201. On Thursday Bulls looked little scared as investors reassessed the scope of the coronavirus outbreak after China's Hubei reported a record rise in the death toll. A Surprise drop in industrial output for December and a rise in January inflation to a six-year high also dampened the sentiment. The Sensex dipped 106 points, to 41460 levels. The Nifty gave up the 12200 mark to settle at 12175, down 27 points. Indian indices were trading at day's low in final hour of Friday's session as banks and telecom stocks remained under pressure after the Supreme Court rejected the plea seeking new schedule of AGR payments and ordered contempt proceedings against Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea. The Sensex was trading 230 points lower at 41230 levels. The Nifty hovered around the 12100 levels, down 67 points & finally closed the week at 12113.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 12000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @12300

NIFTY PREDICTION & FREE OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 19 SEP 2019

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A roller coaster ride of bulls & bears ended on moderately positive note. After opening sharply higher, traders waited for the outcome of the two-day Federal Reserve committee meeting later in the day. The index snapped two-day fall and maintained 10800 levels, forming a bearish candle on intraday basis as the closing price was lower than the opening price. If we compare the September 18 closing with that of the previous day then it forms a bullish candle. The chart pattern is also known as the inside bar candle on the daily scale. After opening higher at 10872, the Nifty traded within a range of 10804 -10885. It closed 23 points higher at 10840.