NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 29 MARCH 2022

Market pared early morning losses on positive global signals and hopes that the RBI will opt for the status quo at their meeting scheduled for the first week of April. Market closed the highly volatile March session at daily highs, supported by auto, banking, oil & gas and metals stocks. To finish, the Sensex was up 231 points, to 57593 and the Nifty was up 69 points to 17222. The current volatility is due to increased commodity prices and the resulting downgrade of future earnings growth. Product prices have been increasing steadily and are expected to increase further in the future, affecting demand and margin. Uncertainties surrounding rising Covid cases, particularly in China, also contributed to weakness. Indian equities showed resilience and bounced back into the green after a positive European market. Technically, the Nifty formed like the bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the daily chart, also closed above 50 days exponential moving average which indicates positive moves in the coming days. An indicator MACD pointed to a positive crossover on the daily time frame. Currently the index has support at 17045 while resistance lies at 17273. Bank Nifty has support at 34656 while resistance lies at 36197. We can expect this volatility to moderate due to the end of the war, commodity prices and supply constraints.

Resistance: 17273, 17393, 17491

Support: 17045, 16956, 16836

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 27 MARCH TO 31 MARCH 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,569	17,851	18,359	17,062	16,779	16,272	15,990
Fibonacci	17,363	17,550	17,851	17,062	16,760	16,574	16,272
Camarilla	17,359	17,431	17,504	17,062	17,214	17,142	17,069

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17569, 17851, 18359

PIVOT POINT: 17062

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16779, 16272, 15990

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17363, 17550, 17851

PIVOT POINT: 17062

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16760, 16574, 16272

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

 

We had a soft start to the new trading week on March 21, 2022 as indicated by sluggish global peers. Aside from an opening hour, Nifty remained under pressure for the rest of the session as it grinded slowly and steadily. Due to a lack of buying interest, the Nifty eventually ended the session down almost a percent just above the 17100 level. Similar to Monday's session, we had a soft open on Tuesday morning as indicated by Nifty. The weakness widened for the first few hours as we witnessed a decent correction in financials. As a result, Nifty gradually approached its psychological level of 17000 during the first half. However, buying suddenly reappeared out of nowhere and within a blink of an eye markets were well off the daily lows. Buying momentum accelerated towards the end to not only erase all losses but also close above 17300 for more than a percent gain. Tuesday's smart rebound was followed by a gap to the upside on Wednesday on favorable global evidence. However, the market got a bit nervous again as the reference index entered a crucial point of 17400-17500. In the first half we saw a gradual decline in the benchmark and then some consolidation during the remaining part to end the session just below the 17250 level. Surprisingly we had a downside gap below 17100 on Thursday  much lower than what SGX was showing. But this anomaly was immediately rectified as we saw Nifty rebalance in the opening trades after retaking the 17150 level. It approached 17300 around the middle of the session, but once again some jitters in the financial sector pulled the benchmark lower to finish the weekly expiration with a negligible loss. On Friday, indices ended in the red amid a volatile March 25 trading session, with the Sensex falling 233 points to 57362 and the Nifty falling 69 points to 17153 as commodity prices rose, monetary policy tightening and inflationary pressures. The domestic market is showing strong resilience, but to maintain the trend, much will depend on the outcome of the war and commodity prices. The easing of COVID restrictions in India is a boost for sectors like Hospitality, Multiplex & Transport etc leading to outperformance.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16780; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17570

The recent rebound has certainly eased some pressure, but ongoing geopolitical tensions coupled with a surge in COVID cases in China will continue to keep participants on their toes. On the index front, sustainability above 17569 would pave the way for the 17851-18359 zone. In the event of a dip, the 16779 to 16272 zone would act as a buffer. Participants should focus on sectors/stocks showing resilience and adjust positions accordingly.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Indian equity markets continue to be in a grind, influenced by and reacting to mounting news from the global front, particularly regarding the geopolitical situation and Fed rhetoric. The two main challenges and monitors for markets in the near term are persistent inflationary pressures and rising bond yields. While inflationary pressures have been building in recent months, the geopolitical situation has worsened the situation as Ukraine and Russia are big players in energy and several commodities, and the prices of some of these commodities have risen sharply since the beginning of the crisis. An ongoing geopolitical situation and elevated prices will gradually weigh on demand and profitability and may result in growth and earnings estimates being trimmed. The recent rise in bond yields may also have an impact on capital flows and stock valuations. As markets have pulled back sharply over the last few weeks one can try to get some liquidity as the uncertainty and volatility is likely to continue for some time with too many moving parts creating intermittent opportunities. Nifty showed a marginal decline during the day, but closed flat. Nifty still has around four trading days before March 2022 expiry. Nifty is in a strong trend and the pattern of higher highs and higher lows are still intact on the lower time frame. On the weekly time frame, price continues to be in a steady up trend as MACD is in a buy mode and the RSI is in a steady uptrend. Nifty does show a potential to be in a steady uptrend till the end of March expiry. On the upside, Nifty does have a potential to 17363-17851. Support for Nifty is at 16760-16272. Any fall to 16760-16272 is a buying opportunity. As long as support at 116760-16272 holds this market is a buy on dip opportunity.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 25 MARCH 2022

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Indian markets opened mixed after mixed Asian market signals as investors took note of the easing of COVID measures that could help economic recovery and also eyed today's NATO summit which focused on Ukraine. Markets traded in red territory during the afternoon session as worries of rising inflation and slowing economic growth weighed on trader sentiment. Market sentiment worsened amid concerns over the country's bilateral trade due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to some sort of trade disruption. Markets remained in negative territory for most of the trading session but pared losses in the end as the positive opening in European markets helped a partial recovery. Benchmark indices ended marginally lower in the volatile March 24th session. At the close, the Sensex lost 89 points to 57595 and the Nifty 22 points to 17222. Global market trend will continue to dictate sentiment as investors refrain from taking bullish bets given the fragile global situation. The intraday pattern indicates a near-term continuation of range-bound activity. For the bulls, 17350 could be the immediate hurdle and below that a corrective wave could continue to 17200-17100. Above 17350, Nifty could rise to levels of 17400-17450. Contra traders can place a long bet near 17100 with a strong support stop loss at 17050.

Resistance: 17300, 17400, 17500

Support: 17200, 17100, 17000

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 24 MARCH 2022

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Volatility continued to be the mainstay as the market is aware of some dangers that could quickly lead to a serious crisis. Despite some greenshoots in the form of FIIs turning net buyers in recent trades, investors remain wary amid the Ukraine conflict, rising US yields and volatile crude oil prices that could turn the tables. As today marks the second anniversary of the Covid lows, Nifty has actually come a long way by posting a whopping 127% return since then. The Indian investor has shown the courage to change the investment landscape by believing in equities as an asset class, even as FPIs pulled back in a big way. Benchmark indices closed lower with Nifty below 17300 in the volatile March 23rd session. At the close, the Sensex was down 304.48 points to 57684 and the Nifty was down 69 points to 17,245. Approximately 1424 stocks are up, 1891 stocks are down, and 118 stocks are flat. Volatility continued to be the mainstay as the market is aware of some dangers that could quickly lead to a serious crisis. Despite some greenshoots in the form of FIIs turning net buyers in recent trades, investors remain wary amid the Ukraine conflict, rising US yields and volatile crude oil prices that could turn the tables. After the recent rally, the market is turning cautious. Volatility has returned due to inflationary pressures triggered by supply constraints. Whilst steadily raising input costs and a fall in demand due to rising Covid cases in parts of the world, war and high commodity prices are weighing on earnings growth which may result in a worsening outlook. An end to the war and an increase in supply can help India maintain its resilience, or it will become a challenge in the short term. The bullish momentum seen in early trades suddenly lacked buy-side conviction as the bears took control of the daily session. The street will spy with a wide eye if Nifty is able to weather overbought technical conditions on the daily charts, aggressive tunes from the Federal Reserve and the surge in oil prices. Technically, the make-or-break of the Niftys support at 200 DMA is seen at the 17021 level, while a waterfall sell below the 17021 level is expected. On the intraday and daily charts, the Nifty is holding a higher bottom formation while at the same time consistently facing resistance near 17440. For the traders, the Nifty support has moved from 17000 to 17200. We expect the 17300-17500 level if the index manages to trade above 17200. On the upside, move away from 17180 could amplify further weakness to 17100-17000.

Resistance: 17300, 17400, 17500

Support: 17200, 17100, 17000

BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 21 MARCH 2022

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In last week, we witnessed a stellar recovery of nearly 10% in this high beta index and with this, it had reached its important resistance of ’20-day EMA’ placed around 36500. Hence, traders chose to book some profits around it during Tuesday’s session. But as mentioned in the previous commentary, the positive placement in ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on daily chart was clearly indicating of resuming the upward trajectory. Without wasting much of time, the index went on to not only challenge but also surpassed this hurdle on the following session itself. Now for the coming week, the immediate levels to watch out for would be around 36606– 36956; whereas on the flipside, 36256 followed by 35905 are to be seen as key supports.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	36606	36784	36956	36434	36256	36083	35905
Fibonacci	36567	36650	36784	36434	36300	36217	36083
Camarilla	36460	36492	36524	36434	36396	36364	36332

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 21 MARCH TO 25 MARCH 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,034	17,438	18,120	16,353	15,948	15,267	14,862
Fibonacci	16,767	17,024	17,438	16,353	15,938	15,682	15,267
Camarilla	16,729	16,829.	16,929	16,353	16,530	16,431	16,331

 WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,029	17,083	17,179	16,933	16,879	16,783	16,729
Fibonacci	16,991	17,026	17,083	16,933	16,876	16,840	16,783
Camarilla	16,989	17,002	17,016	16,933	16,961	16,947	16,934

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The Indian stock market started the shortened week with optimism, which followed the positive Asian stock markets. The market gradually gained some momentum as buying sentiment increased across the board and continued to rally throughout the day. The benchmark Nifty50 index was up nearly 1.45% to end the day in green, just below the 16900 level. Our market started Tuesday subdued, taking cues from the mixed global bourses. The benchmark index resisted the march into the unfilled gap, seeing lackluster movement for the first few hours. In the second half, strong gain booking dragged the index over 1.23 percent to end the day in red, just above the 16650 level. The Indian stock market started Wednesday's session with a gap-up open amid of the positive global signals. The benchmark index stayed in a narrow range for most of the session before turning into strong buying in the penultimate hour. The broad-based buying has spilled some bullish sentiment on the stock markets, with the Nifty50 index ending the day up 1.87 percent in the green, just below the 17000 mark. On Thursday, benchmark indices celebrated Holi with a gain of 2% on March 17th, even after the Fed hiked interest rates. At the end of the trading week, the Sensex was up 1047 points to 57863 and the Nifty was up 311 points to 17287. Positive global signals following the Fed rate hike, softening oil prices and progress in Russia-Ukraine talks boosted bulls' confidence as benchmark indices gained over 2% in afternoon trade.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16500; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17500

The recent rebound has certainly eased some pressure, but ongoing geopolitical tensions coupled with a surge in COVID cases in China will continue to keep participants on their toes. On the index front, sustainability above 17300 would pave the way for the 17500-17700 zone. In the event of a dip, the 17000 to 16800 zone would act as a buffer. Participants should focus on sectors/stocks showing resilience and adjust positions accordingly.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

On the technical front support for Nifty has now shifted from 16800 to 17000 and as long as the index holds the 17k level the uptrend wave will continue to 17450 and could take the index as high as 17600. However, 17000 could be the sacrosanct support level for Nifty and just below that, Nifty could reach levels of 16900-16800.