NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 14 OCT TO 18 OCT 2019

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11400, 11500, 11600

 PIVOT POINT: 11250

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11150, 11050, 11000

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11375, 11435, 11500

PIVOT POINT: 11275

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11225, 11175, 11050

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

If end’s well it mean all is well.  Finally nifty closed the week above 11300 mark. The market mood has been somber from last Diwali 2018, thanks to economic slowdown, subdued earnings, liquidity crisis, asset quality concerns, FII outflow, corporate governance issues (in a few cases) global growth fears amid endless US-China trade tensions etc, which clearly reflected in markets. Diwali 2019 is still two-week away. The Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices fell 11 percent and 14 percent respectively in Diwali 2019 (against 7% and 22% correction in Diwali 2018), but the picture was completely different in benchmark indices. The Nifty and Sensex rallied 6% each (against 4.5% and 10% gains respectively in Diwali 2018) led by hope rally and buying in select bluechips. On Monday, Nifty started the week on a mild positive note however the rub-off effect from the previous week immediately pulled Index lower. Subsequently, Index managed to hold on to the key support levels to trigger an intraday bounce back. Eventually in the penultimate hour nifty once again witnessed a sell-off to end with a loss of 0.43% at 11126. After the mid-week holiday, the Nifty started Wednesday’s session marginally positive. However, it witnessed some selling pressure in the first hour of the trade and tested the crucial support of 11100. The indices then witnessed buying momentum from this support and the momentum accelerated as the day progressed to end with gains of over 180 points. Citing negative cues from the Nifty, our indices opened marginally negative in Thursday’s session. The Nifty then traded in the range of 11200-11300 throughout the day and ended with a loss of seven-tenths of a percent.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11500

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A rangebound trading session ended on flat note. After a one-day rally, Market once again came under pressure on Thursday amid brisk selling in banking counters. Nifty Bank, which jumped over 1000 points in the previous session, today tumbled like a pack of cards (down nearly 800 points), thus, erasing a large portion of the gains made yesterday. The Sensex and Nifty resumed their downward journey after a day's break in the previous session. The Sensex fell as much as 375 points at the day's lowest level and the Nifty touched an intraday low of 11209. The Sensex ended 298 points lower at 37880 and the Nifty declined 79 points to settle at 11235.

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Bulls are in the grip on bears. Nifty came below 11150 mark. The market ended in the red for the sixth consecutive session as the concerns over weak macroeconomic environment persisted. The Sensex closed 141 points down at 37531.  The Nifty index settled 48 points lower at 11126. 

NIFTY BELOW 11200 MARK ; RBI CUTS FY20 GDP TO 6.1%

RBI's monetary policy committee cuts repo rates by 25 basis points to 5.15 %.

RBI has said that there is space to cut repo rates further.

The reverse repo rate has been reduced to 4.9 %, and the bank rate stands at 5.40%. 

Real GDP growth for 2019-20 has been revised downwards from 6.9 %  in the August policy to 6.1 %. RBI has said that various high frequency indicators suggest that domestic demand conditions have remained weak.

The MPC noted that the negative output gap has widened further. While the recent measures announced by the government are likely to help strengthen private consumption and spur private investment activity, MPC said that the continuing slowdown warrants intensified efforts to restore the growth momentum. 

The CPI inflation projection is revised slightly upwards to 3.4 % for Q2:2019-20 from 3.1 % projection earlier. 

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Bulls are on back foot bears continued to grip the markets in Tuesday’s session also due to an across-the-board sell-off as financial sector woes, auto sales slump and weak macro data spooked investors. …!!!! Nifty came below 11400 mark. After opening at 11515 nifty made a high of 11554 & came down to 11247 & finally closed at 11359 down by 114 points in intraday.

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A volatile trading session ended on negative note, nifty closed below 11500 mark. The indices ended lower but off days low in the volatile session on September 30. At close, the Sensex was down 155 points at 38667, while Nifty was down 37 points at 11474. Indices were dragged down by declines across banking, auto, metal and pharma shares.

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11600, 11700, 11800

 PIVOT POINT: 11500

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11400, 11300, 11200

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11600, 11650, 11700

PIVOT POINT:11550

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11500, 11450, 11400

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

In mere couple of trading sessions, the Nifty has rallied from the low of around 10700 to almost test 11700. Traders and investors have certainly cheered to the steps taken by our FM on Friday and the party continued in yesterday’s session as well. Many of the large cap stocks have participated in the upmove in last couple of sessions and the volumes in this upmove too have been good.  The Nifty started the week on a cheerful note and continued the last week’s optimism as it opened with a gap up of about 270 points. During the day, the index rallied higher to almost test the 11700 mark and then consolidated during later part to end around 11600, adding more gains of over 300 points. Post the sharp upmove in a couple of sessions, the index consolidated in a range on Tuesday and ended around the Monday’s close. On Wednesday markets was trading with a negative bias in morning and in line with the global cues. With open high same scenario, the Nifty breached low of the 'Doji' candle formed on the previous day. Nifty then witnessed a sell-off and it corrected throughout the session to end the day with a loss of around 150 points. On the expiry day of f&o September series index started the day marginally positive and rallied sharply in the first hour of the trade to re-test the 11600 mark. Although the index traded with a positive bias, the intraday volatility remained high. The Nifty ultimately ended the day with gains of over a percent. Post a minor correction for a couple of sessions, the indices resumed the positive momentum in Thursday’s session. On market was trading flat in the volatile trade on September 27 with Nifty hovering around 11550 level.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11350; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11725

We continue with our advice for traders to trade with a positive bias. Given the sharp up move, it is a bit difficult to time entry now for those who have already missed the bus. But, we believe that this rally has more legs to unfold and hence, one should use buy on declines strategy. The immediate support for the index is placed in the range of 11400-11300 whereas the near term resistances are seen around 11705 and 11800. For intraday, 11539 will be seen as initial support followed by Monday's gap area of 11470-11380. On the flipside, 11655- 11700 is seen as the immediate hurdle on the upside.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING.

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Bulls are back in action & successfully closed nifty above 11550 mark on the September F&O expiry day.  The Sensex added as much as 564 points to touch 39158 at the day's strongest level, before giving up some of those gains by the end of the session. The Nifty climbed to as high as 11610, up 170 points from the previous close.  Across-the-board buying and hopes of US-China trade truce after US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a deal to end a nearly 15-month trade war with China “could happen sooner”, boosted market sentiment. 

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Market skewed in favor of the bears. After nearly 1000 point move in the Nifty some correction is happening on account of profit booking and the volatility is also high a day ahead of expiry of futures and options September contracts tomorrow. The Sensex and Nifty fell sharply in trade today on the back of a broad-based selloff. The Sensex plunged as much as 586 points to hit intraday low of 38510 and the Nifty plunged as much as 172 points to drop below important psychological level of 11450. Prospects of a prolonged political uncertainty in the United States after the launch of a formal impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump are also hurting the market sentiment globally and that is also impacting Indian markets today. 

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Tuesday bulls were in relaxing mood. After 2 days record breaking runs bulls were taking breathe. Nifty & sensex ended a little changed on a volatile day. . After two days of stellar rally following the government's decision to cut corporate taxes, domestic stock markets witnessed profit booking on Tuesday amid choppy trade as Asian peers ticked up on renewed hopes about US-China trade talks.  The Sensex rose as much as 216 points to 39306 in early trade, and declined 393 points from that level to hit 38913 on the downside at the day's weakest mark. The Nifty benchmark moved in a range of 116 points, between 11655 and 11539 at the day's highest and lowest levels respectively.

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No Monday blues..!!! Historical corporate tax rate cut party which started last Friday 20 sep 2019 continued in the Monday’s session also. Bulls continued their euphoric rally for 2nd trading day buy jumping 200 points to hit its highest level in more than two months. The Sensex also jumped 1075 points. positive sentiment for revival in earnings growth also attracted to the foreign investors in the market.

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What a splendid Day it was. Nifty’s High jump from 10670 to directly 11381. Thank to FM Nirmala sitharama for corporate tax bonzana.  Sensex skyrockets 1921 points to log biggest gain in 10 years on tax cut euphoria; Nifty zips past 11250. 

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11400, 11500, 11600

 PIVOT POINT: 11200

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  11100, 11000, 10900

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11350, 11450, 11550

PIVOT POINT:11250

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11150, 11050, 10950

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

What a historical day it has been for corporates, the equity market and consumers. The government, like in a T20 game, opted for some serious hitting and managed to hit it out of the park as it announced a string of measures to lift the economy. The steps, including reducing the corporate tax rate to 25% from 35% for existing domestic companies and an attractive rate of 15% for new companies set up after October 1 and commencing operations before 2023, were greeted with uproarious cheer by the equity market.
The way we concluded previous week on Friday, market was all set to have a gap up opening on Monday of this week to surpass the major hurdle of 11150-11180. But, due to Saudi oil attacks over the weekend, crude oil prices spiked up more than 10% which spooked traders across the globe. We being the crude oil sensitive economy could not be spared with it. The week started off lower and minor attempt of recovery eventually got sold into to end the session tad above the 11000 mark. Tuesday after a flat start, our markets witnessed an open-high scenario as from the word go Nifty witnessed selling pressure. For the first half, Index witnessed a gradual fall however in the second half after no signs of recovery the selloff aggravated and eventually ended with a loss of 1.69% at 10818. As hinted by Nifty our markets started on a positive note on Wednesday with more than 50 points gain however the rub-off effect from the previous session pulled Index lower to erase all gains in the first hour itself. Subsequently, Index managed to hold on to the previous session low around 10800 and after a tiring session of consolidation eventually ended with minor gains of 0.21% at 10841. On Thursday in line with mixed global cues our markets started on a flat note, however, Index immediately started witnessing selling pressure and within the first few minutes itself broke previous two session’s support of 10800. Subsequently, the undertone remained weak as Index continued to slide lower throughout the session and eventually ended with deep cuts of 1.25% tad above 10700 levels.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11000; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11500

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Market skewed in favor of the bears Tax collection at a slower rate is hurting the market to a large extent. There are concerns the government won’t be able to meet the revenue target at this pace. The Credit Suisse report on consumption slump is also bothering investors. The Sensex slumped as much as 576 points to fall below 36000 and the Nifty dropped 170 points to fall below its important psychological level of 10700 to hit an intraday low of 10670. The Sensex dropped 470 points to close at 36093. its lowest level since March 1 and the Nifty slumped 136 points to close at 10705, its lowest level since February 19. The stock markets fell sharply in trade on Thursday led by declines in Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank. 

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A roller coaster ride of bulls & bears ended on moderately positive note. After opening sharply higher, traders waited for the outcome of the two-day Federal Reserve committee meeting later in the day. The index snapped two-day fall and maintained 10800 levels, forming a bearish candle on intraday basis as the closing price was lower than the opening price. If we compare the September 18 closing with that of the previous day then it forms a bullish candle. The chart pattern is also known as the inside bar candle on the daily scale. After opening higher at 10872, the Nifty traded within a range of 10804 -10885. It closed 23 points higher at 10840.

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Bears continued to grip the markets in Tuesday’s session also as crude oil prices continued to gain in the aftermath of drone attacks on Saudi Arabia oil establishments. A poor set of macro data from China also further hit sentiment. Nifty came below 10800 mark. After opening at day’s high level 11000 nifty came down to 10796 & finally closed at 10817 down by 186 points. Sensex tumbled 642 points lower at 36481.

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Bulls are on back foot, Bears continued to rule…  Nifty has started the week on negative note dragged down by oil & gas and energy stocks following spike in oil prices as attacks on key producer Saudi Arabia’s facilities sparked supply fears sapping investors risk appetite. Nifty has started on bearish note below 11000 level at 10994 and made a high of 11052 gradually declined as the session progressed & made a low of 10968 & finally managed to close above 11000 mark at 11003. The Sensex closed 261 points lower at 37123.

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11150, 11250, 11350

 PIVOT POINT: 11000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10900, 10800, 10700

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11125, 11175, 11225

PIVOT POINT:11100

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  11050, 11000, 10950

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

The Market started the week marginally negative as the Nifty sneaked below 10900 in the first 15 minutes of the trade. However, this early morning dip was bought into as the index recovered sharply to reclaim the 11000 mark. For rest of the session the index consolidated in a range to end around 11000 mark. Post a mid-week holiday on Tuesday our markets started on a mild positive note on Wednesday. Subsequently, there was no major action in index front and after consolidating in a range for the most part of the session, Nifty eventually ended near the opening levels with gains of 0.30% at 11036. Although the index started the session marginally positive on Thursday, the Nifty lacked follow up momentum during the day. Post noon, the index corrected for rest of the session and ended the day with a loss of about half a percent. On Friday the  Sensex - which switched direction at least eight times during the session after opening higher - moved in a range of 413 points, before settling with a gain of 280 points at 37384 for the day. The Nifty recovered as much as 138 points from an intraday low of 10945 to touch 11084 at the day's strongest level, before shutting shop on Friday at 10982. 

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 11800; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11300

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Wednesday’s range bound trading session ended on positive note amid global cues and investors eyeing industrial and consumer price data and other macro data’s. Market sentiments were also lifted by PSU banks & metal stocks. The Sensex gained over 100 points while the nifty settled over 11000-level. The Sensex closed at 37270 rising 125 points, while the Nifty gained 32 points at 11035.

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Market started on positive note. Bulls managed to sustain above 11000 mark. It was 2nd straight day for positive market. The Sensex & nifty ended in the positive territory on Monday due to heavy buying in banks, finance automobile & IT sector. The Sensex added 164 points to settle at 37145, Nifty reclaimed the crucial 11000 level to settle at 11003, up 57 points.

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11100, 11200, 11300

 PIVOT POINT: 11000

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  10900, 10800, 10700

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 11000, 11050, 11100

PIVOT POINT:10900

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY :  10850, 10800, 10750

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

After an extended weekend, nifty started the week with a big gap down mainly on the back of escalated trade war between US and China over the weekend. Index then consolidated a bit throughout the first half but all of a sudden the selling momentum accelerated at the stroke of the penultimate hour which lasted till the closing point of the day. Eventually Nifty ended with a mammoth cut over 200 points on Tuesday. Tuesday’s sharp selloffs were followed by a muted opening on Wednesday; but immediately in the initial trade, the selling momentum resumed and we went on to sneak below the 10750 mark. Things started to look a bit intimidating but fortunately we saw good buying emerging at lower levels which continued for the remaining part of the day. This recovery was mainly provided by the easing political tensions in Hong Kong and hence we witnessed a rub off effect to conclude in the positive territory.  Thursday, we had a good head start for the day as index opened slightly higher on the back of positive global cues. However we couldn’t capitalize on this early morning lead. In the latter half, we not only wiped off all gains but also managed to slip slightly into a negative territory. Eventually the weekly expiry ended flat with no clear direction. Nifty managed to hold the 10,850 level and gradually extended its gains towards the 10,950 mark in Friday’s trade.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 10750; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @11100

We still remain optimistic and expect the index to revisit 11200-11400 in coming days. For the coming week, 11000 followed by 11200 are the levels to watch out for in the upward direction and on the lower side, we expect 10750 to act as a sheet anchor. In case of any decline , traders should construe this as a good buying opportunity. It formed a bullish candle on the daily scale while Bullish Pin Bar on the weekly scale, which implied support-based buying interest has emerged in the market at lower levels. Nifty has started to form higher lows and supports are shifting higher. Now it has to hold above 10,850 to extend its bounce towards 11,050 and 11,100 levels, while on the downside supports are seen at 10855 and then 10775 levels.