NIFTY PREDICTION & TIPS FOR F&O 6 APRIL 2022

Markets had rallied strongly over the past two sessions, outperforming other Asian peers, but the bears were back in action as investors preferred to book profits. Financials, which had spurred a massive rally in broader markets a day earlier, proved to be the main reason for the decline in major benchmark indices, despite buying interest in auto and FMCG stocks. Markets took a breather after yesterday's surge and closed marginally lower. After starting flat, the benchmark ranged and ended around the daily low. Overall, sector indices traded mixed, with gain bookings in banking and finance dragging the indices lower. However, purchases of electricity, consumer discretionary and FMCG packages limited the downside. The broader indices were each up in the 1.5% to 1.6% range. After opening positive, the benchmark index traded with a negative bias all day, showing profit bookings from higher levels. The Nifty50 index closed at 17930, down 0.53%, while Bank Nifty settled at 38067, down 1.47% in one day. Technically, the Nifty50 encountered resistance at 18100 and showed downside momentum, but managed to close above its 50-day simple moving averages, suggesting that a sustained above may show recovery. The index took support from the previous horizontal line and closed above the same, suggesting buyers are quite active. However, momentum indicator MACD is seen trading with a positive crossover on daily charts, indicating upward movement. Additionally, the index managed to close above 21 & 50 - a sustained HMA above may indicate a northerly direction. The Nifty could find support around 17,800 levels while on the upside 18,150 could act as an immediate hurdle for the index. On the upside, Bank Nifty has support at 37700 while resistance lies at 38700. Markets could consolidate after the recent surge and it would be healthy. However, thanks to planned events such as the MPC monetary policy review meeting and the start of the earnings season, there will be no shortage of trading opportunities. Participants should focus on the sectors/themes that are performing well and use the pause to accumulate quality stocks on dips. On the intraday charts, the Nifty has formed a sort of double-top formation, suggesting further weakness from current levels. The index has also formed a bearish candle on the daily chart that is largely negative. However, the medium-term structure of the market remains positive. We believe that as long as the index trades below the 18050 level, the correction could last to 17850-17750. Fresh uptrend is possible only after breakout of 18050 range and could extend to 18130-18200 range.

Resistance: 18150, 18200, 18250

Support: 18000, 17950, 17900

NIFTY PREDICTION & TIPS FOR F&O 5 APRIL 2022

Although markets opened weak, key indices rallied quickly and held onto key psychological levels of 60k and 18k respectively. The trigger was that markets welcomed the HDFC merger announcement and the rally in both stocks spilled over into other financials and spilled over into other sector stocks as well. Nifty has gracefully climbed above 18000 on the daily chart after a sustained trade above the previous consolidation. The market ended April 4th higher for the second straight session, driven by bank names following news of the merger of HDFC and HDFC Bank. On completion, the Sensex rose 1335 points to 60611 and the Nifty rose 382 points to 18053. Also, recent key economic indicators such as core growth numbers and all-time highs in GST earnings showed that the domestic economy has shrugged off geopolitical tensions. On the daily charts, the Nifty is holding an uptrend formation, but due to the overbought texture, traders may prefer to book some profit at higher levels. For the trend-following traders, 17850 would act as the key support level and above that the index could reach the 18175-1250 level. On the other hand, a quick intraday correction is not ruled out if the index trades below 17880 and below that it could retest the 17950-17900 level.

Resistance: 18150, 18200, 18250

Support: 18000, 17950, 17900

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 4 APRIL TO 8 APRIL 2022

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The war between Russia and Ukraine, the movement of crude oil and the RBI monetary policy meetings, as well as the stock results due in April 2022 would be the main factors that will determine the near trend.

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17737, 17811, 17962

PIVOT POINT: 17586

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17413, 17361, 17288

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17700, 17750, 17800

PIVOT POINT: 17650

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17600, 17550, 17500

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

FY22's final week of expiry got off to a slow start, taking inspiration from mixed global stock markets. The benchmark index, the Nifty50, tumbled as soon as the market started towards the psychological support of the 17000 level, from where a smart recovery started to pare the initial losses. The index ended the session up 0.40 percent and settled slightly above the 17200 level. A promising start came on Tuesday in our domestic market, which followed the positive global cues, with the benchmark index Nifty50 opening a significant gap to the upside. The market stayed in a narrow range throughout the session, suggesting that the bears are not going to give up anytime soon. The cops also stood their ground and pounced on every small burglary. After the intense tug of war session, the Nifty ended the day in favor of the bulls with consecutive gains of 0.60 percent to settle just above the 17300 level. The market took a breather on a monthly expiry day and ended the last day of the fiscal year on a flat note. Mixed global cues triggered a flat open followed by a range bound move to close. Amidst all industry indices, trading was mixed as healthy buying in FMCG, auto and housing indices helped to inch higher. On the downside, however, profit bookings at pharma, IT and PSU banks limited the upside. Finally, the Nifty closed up 0.2% to close at 17464. Meanwhile, the broader markets outperformed and closed higher in the 0.4-0.7% range. Nifty opened on a positive note on March 31 but failed to continue its winning streak of the last three sessions. Market ended higher on first day of the new financial year & week with Nifty comfortably closing near 17700. At close, the Sensex was up 708 points at 59276, and the Nifty was up 205  points  at 17670. 

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17300; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

We expect FY23 to see continued volatility in equity markets, particularly in the first half of the year with rising global interest rates and high inflation likely to persist. In this scenario, we anticipate a reallocation of funds from long-term debt to equity funds in the second half of the year, which should bode well for equities. Our year-end target for Nifty is 19800. Some sectors where we are positive include metals, hospitals, hospitality, oil refining, capital goods, etc. In terms of levels for the coming week, the credit policy is ahead  Nifty is placed near the crucial 17600 zone and looking at the recent stellar run this week, a breather at current levels should not be ruled out, although support is near the zone from 17500-17300 lies . On the upside, 17800-18000 could be seen as immediate resistance for the index.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

The stock market kicked off FY23 on a positive note. It started the year muted and in-line with global markets but strengthen as the day progressed as the broad market picked up and buying increased in sectors like Banks, Power & Realty. Cabinet approval for mega power policy, drop in crude and improvement in global futures ignited the rally. Russia- Ukraine war, movement of crude and RBI monetary policy meetings would be the major factors that will dictate the near trend.The Nifty managed to cross the key barrier of 17600 on a closing basis on April 01. The weekly chart shows that the index had a sustained rise throughout the week & formed a bullish Outside bar on the weekly chart. Also, on the chart the Nifty has formed a bullish outside bar along with an Engulfing bull candle today. Investors cheered the strong GST numbers for March while reports about Russia started pulling out some troops from the Ukraine capital also aided the sentiment. Technically, after a 17400 breakout the Nifty has maintained breakout continuation formation which is broadly positive. In addition, strong bullish candle on weekly charts along with higher bottom formation also support further uptrend from the current levels. However, traders may prefer to take cautious stance near the 17800 resistance level due to the market being in an overbought situation. The current texture is likely to continue unless the index slips below 17400 or 10-day SMA. Above the same, we could see Nifty touching the level of 17,800 and further upside could lift the index up to 17900. On the flip side, 10-day SMA or 17400/17300 would be the sacrosanct level for the positional traders and below the same, the index could slip to 17200-17000 levels. This shows that the bulls are having upper hand. The daily upper Bollinger Band has started expanding on the upside thus creating room for the index in the higher territory. All these observations suggest that the index is set to test the level of 18000 on the upside. On the downside, the near term support zone shifts higher to 17600-17400.

NIFTY PREDICTION FOR F&O EXPIRY 1 APRIL 2022

The market took a breather on a monthly expiry day and ended the last day of the fiscal year on a flat note. Mixed global cues triggered a flat open followed by a range bound move to close. Amidst all industry indices, trading was mixed as healthy buying in FMCG, auto and housing indices helped to inch higher. On the downside, however, profit bookings at pharma, IT and PSU banks limited the upside. Finally, the Nifty closed up 0.2% to close at 17464. Meanwhile, the broader markets outperformed and closed higher in the 0.4-0.7% range. Nifty opened on a positive note on March 31 but failed to continue its winning streak of the last three sessions.

In the last couple of sessions, the index has been hovering near the crucial 17500 barrier. The failure of this crucial hurdle suggests that the index could continue to consolidate in the 17550-17280 range in the near term. The hourly chart shows that the Nifty has broken down from a rising channel and the breakdown is accompanied by a bearish hourly momentum indicator. Going forward, the index is expected to fill a gap area of ​​17350-17450 on the daily chart. Short-term traders can consider taking profits at this level and waiting for a minor pullback to open a new long position. We reiterate our positive but cautious stance, noting the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and its impact on global markets. In the meantime, markets offer opportunities across industries so the focus should be on identifying the sectors/themes that are gaining traction and planning positions accordingly.

Resistance: 17551, 17604, 17686

Support: 17416, 17334, 17280

NIFTY PREDICTION FOR F&O EXPIRY 31 MARCH 2022

The bulls were back in action ahead of the F&O expiry, which helped Sensex close above the crucial 58,000 level. Investors cheered reports that both Russia and Ukraine are holding peace talks, bringing some stability to markets around the world. Indian markets rose for the third day today on positive signals on Russia-Ukraine peace talks. With the lockdown in China, markets are expected to remain volatile in the period ahead. Another important aspect was the drop in crude oil prices, which would help contain rising inflation.

Currently, the market is trading near its key resistance level and has also formed a minor hammer candlestick formation. We think that as long as the Nifty trades above 17409, the breakout structure is likely to continue to 17636-17830. On the downside, the index below 17200 could retest the 17033-16931 level. Technically, Nifty has been steadily rising for the past three trading sessions, moving above the previous swing highs. Additionally, the index has held above the 100-EMA on the daily chart, indicating bullish strength for the day ahead. A momentum indicator RSI (14) is moving above the 60 level and the MACD is showing a positive crossover supporting the uptrend. Currently the index has support at 17113 while resistance lies at 17470. On the upside, Bank Nifty has support at 35106 while resistance lies at 36518.

Resistance: 17273, 17393, 17491

Support: 17045, 16956, 16836

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 30 MARCH 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17303	17384	17534	17153	17072	16922	16841
Fibonacci	17241	17296	17384	17153	17065	17010	16922
Camarilla	17243	17264	17285	17153	17200	17179	17158

 The market ended near the daily high with Nifty closing comfortably above 17300 led by Pharma, Real Estate and Capital Goods. At the close, the Sensex was up 350 points to 57943. The index traded in a 17000-17400 range on the 8th day of trading as the index opened on a green note but hit an intraday low at 17235 and the session at 17325 finished stage with a gain of 103 points. Bank Nifty closed the session at 35847. Markets ended bullish with the broader indexes up 0.60%. This was done in hopes of a positive outcome in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The drop in oil prices also supported the market. However, rising inflation, the rise in crude oil prices and the US Federal Reserve's rate hike need to be taken into account. This can affect the market in the short term. However, over the longer term, markets will do well and we recommend sticking with the buy-on dips strategy at large levels. Technically, the Nifty50 is trading near the resistance levels and above the 50-day simple moving averages suggests further strength. The index has confirmed the hammer candle on a daily chart, confirming the strength of the counter. However, momentum indicator STOCHASTIC is seen trading with a positive crossover on daily charts, suggesting upward movement. Additionally, the index managed to close above 21-HMA, a sustained above it may indicate a northerly direction.The Nifty could find support around 17,000 while 17,500 on the upside could serve as an immediate barrier for the index. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 34473 levels while resistance at 36736 levels. For Nifty 17072 will act as a very strong support, if this level breaks then 16922 will be the next strong support after the market might take support at the 16841 level. On the upside 17303 will be a strong resistance, if this level is broken the next hurdle will be 17384, after that 17534 will act as a strong resistance level.

Resistance: 17,303 17,384 17,534

Support: 17,072 16,922 16,841

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 29 MARCH 2022

Market pared early morning losses on positive global signals and hopes that the RBI will opt for the status quo at their meeting scheduled for the first week of April. Market closed the highly volatile March session at daily highs, supported by auto, banking, oil & gas and metals stocks. To finish, the Sensex was up 231 points, to 57593 and the Nifty was up 69 points to 17222. The current volatility is due to increased commodity prices and the resulting downgrade of future earnings growth. Product prices have been increasing steadily and are expected to increase further in the future, affecting demand and margin. Uncertainties surrounding rising Covid cases, particularly in China, also contributed to weakness. Indian equities showed resilience and bounced back into the green after a positive European market. Technically, the Nifty formed like the bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the daily chart, also closed above 50 days exponential moving average which indicates positive moves in the coming days. An indicator MACD pointed to a positive crossover on the daily time frame. Currently the index has support at 17045 while resistance lies at 17273. Bank Nifty has support at 34656 while resistance lies at 36197. We can expect this volatility to moderate due to the end of the war, commodity prices and supply constraints.

Resistance: 17273, 17393, 17491

Support: 17045, 16956, 16836

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 27 MARCH TO 31 MARCH 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,569	17,851	18,359	17,062	16,779	16,272	15,990
Fibonacci	17,363	17,550	17,851	17,062	16,760	16,574	16,272
Camarilla	17,359	17,431	17,504	17,062	17,214	17,142	17,069

WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17569, 17851, 18359

PIVOT POINT: 17062

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16779, 16272, 15990

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

DAILY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17363, 17550, 17851

PIVOT POINT: 17062

DAILY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16760, 16574, 16272

DAILY CHART FOR NIFTY

 

We had a soft start to the new trading week on March 21, 2022 as indicated by sluggish global peers. Aside from an opening hour, Nifty remained under pressure for the rest of the session as it grinded slowly and steadily. Due to a lack of buying interest, the Nifty eventually ended the session down almost a percent just above the 17100 level. Similar to Monday's session, we had a soft open on Tuesday morning as indicated by Nifty. The weakness widened for the first few hours as we witnessed a decent correction in financials. As a result, Nifty gradually approached its psychological level of 17000 during the first half. However, buying suddenly reappeared out of nowhere and within a blink of an eye markets were well off the daily lows. Buying momentum accelerated towards the end to not only erase all losses but also close above 17300 for more than a percent gain. Tuesday's smart rebound was followed by a gap to the upside on Wednesday on favorable global evidence. However, the market got a bit nervous again as the reference index entered a crucial point of 17400-17500. In the first half we saw a gradual decline in the benchmark and then some consolidation during the remaining part to end the session just below the 17250 level. Surprisingly we had a downside gap below 17100 on Thursday  much lower than what SGX was showing. But this anomaly was immediately rectified as we saw Nifty rebalance in the opening trades after retaking the 17150 level. It approached 17300 around the middle of the session, but once again some jitters in the financial sector pulled the benchmark lower to finish the weekly expiration with a negligible loss. On Friday, indices ended in the red amid a volatile March 25 trading session, with the Sensex falling 233 points to 57362 and the Nifty falling 69 points to 17153 as commodity prices rose, monetary policy tightening and inflationary pressures. The domestic market is showing strong resilience, but to maintain the trend, much will depend on the outcome of the war and commodity prices. The easing of COVID restrictions in India is a boost for sectors like Hospitality, Multiplex & Transport etc leading to outperformance.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 16780; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17570

The recent rebound has certainly eased some pressure, but ongoing geopolitical tensions coupled with a surge in COVID cases in China will continue to keep participants on their toes. On the index front, sustainability above 17569 would pave the way for the 17851-18359 zone. In the event of a dip, the 16779 to 16272 zone would act as a buffer. Participants should focus on sectors/stocks showing resilience and adjust positions accordingly.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Indian equity markets continue to be in a grind, influenced by and reacting to mounting news from the global front, particularly regarding the geopolitical situation and Fed rhetoric. The two main challenges and monitors for markets in the near term are persistent inflationary pressures and rising bond yields. While inflationary pressures have been building in recent months, the geopolitical situation has worsened the situation as Ukraine and Russia are big players in energy and several commodities, and the prices of some of these commodities have risen sharply since the beginning of the crisis. An ongoing geopolitical situation and elevated prices will gradually weigh on demand and profitability and may result in growth and earnings estimates being trimmed. The recent rise in bond yields may also have an impact on capital flows and stock valuations. As markets have pulled back sharply over the last few weeks one can try to get some liquidity as the uncertainty and volatility is likely to continue for some time with too many moving parts creating intermittent opportunities. Nifty showed a marginal decline during the day, but closed flat. Nifty still has around four trading days before March 2022 expiry. Nifty is in a strong trend and the pattern of higher highs and higher lows are still intact on the lower time frame. On the weekly time frame, price continues to be in a steady up trend as MACD is in a buy mode and the RSI is in a steady uptrend. Nifty does show a potential to be in a steady uptrend till the end of March expiry. On the upside, Nifty does have a potential to 17363-17851. Support for Nifty is at 16760-16272. Any fall to 16760-16272 is a buying opportunity. As long as support at 116760-16272 holds this market is a buy on dip opportunity.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 25 MARCH 2022

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Indian markets opened mixed after mixed Asian market signals as investors took note of the easing of COVID measures that could help economic recovery and also eyed today's NATO summit which focused on Ukraine. Markets traded in red territory during the afternoon session as worries of rising inflation and slowing economic growth weighed on trader sentiment. Market sentiment worsened amid concerns over the country's bilateral trade due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to some sort of trade disruption. Markets remained in negative territory for most of the trading session but pared losses in the end as the positive opening in European markets helped a partial recovery. Benchmark indices ended marginally lower in the volatile March 24th session. At the close, the Sensex lost 89 points to 57595 and the Nifty 22 points to 17222. Global market trend will continue to dictate sentiment as investors refrain from taking bullish bets given the fragile global situation. The intraday pattern indicates a near-term continuation of range-bound activity. For the bulls, 17350 could be the immediate hurdle and below that a corrective wave could continue to 17200-17100. Above 17350, Nifty could rise to levels of 17400-17450. Contra traders can place a long bet near 17100 with a strong support stop loss at 17050.

Resistance: 17300, 17400, 17500

Support: 17200, 17100, 17000

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 24 MARCH 2022

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Volatility continued to be the mainstay as the market is aware of some dangers that could quickly lead to a serious crisis. Despite some greenshoots in the form of FIIs turning net buyers in recent trades, investors remain wary amid the Ukraine conflict, rising US yields and volatile crude oil prices that could turn the tables. As today marks the second anniversary of the Covid lows, Nifty has actually come a long way by posting a whopping 127% return since then. The Indian investor has shown the courage to change the investment landscape by believing in equities as an asset class, even as FPIs pulled back in a big way. Benchmark indices closed lower with Nifty below 17300 in the volatile March 23rd session. At the close, the Sensex was down 304.48 points to 57684 and the Nifty was down 69 points to 17,245. Approximately 1424 stocks are up, 1891 stocks are down, and 118 stocks are flat. Volatility continued to be the mainstay as the market is aware of some dangers that could quickly lead to a serious crisis. Despite some greenshoots in the form of FIIs turning net buyers in recent trades, investors remain wary amid the Ukraine conflict, rising US yields and volatile crude oil prices that could turn the tables. After the recent rally, the market is turning cautious. Volatility has returned due to inflationary pressures triggered by supply constraints. Whilst steadily raising input costs and a fall in demand due to rising Covid cases in parts of the world, war and high commodity prices are weighing on earnings growth which may result in a worsening outlook. An end to the war and an increase in supply can help India maintain its resilience, or it will become a challenge in the short term. The bullish momentum seen in early trades suddenly lacked buy-side conviction as the bears took control of the daily session. The street will spy with a wide eye if Nifty is able to weather overbought technical conditions on the daily charts, aggressive tunes from the Federal Reserve and the surge in oil prices. Technically, the make-or-break of the Niftys support at 200 DMA is seen at the 17021 level, while a waterfall sell below the 17021 level is expected. On the intraday and daily charts, the Nifty is holding a higher bottom formation while at the same time consistently facing resistance near 17440. For the traders, the Nifty support has moved from 17000 to 17200. We expect the 17300-17500 level if the index manages to trade above 17200. On the upside, move away from 17180 could amplify further weakness to 17100-17000.

Resistance: 17300, 17400, 17500

Support: 17200, 17100, 17000

BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 21 MARCH 2022

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In last week, we witnessed a stellar recovery of nearly 10% in this high beta index and with this, it had reached its important resistance of ’20-day EMA’ placed around 36500. Hence, traders chose to book some profits around it during Tuesday’s session. But as mentioned in the previous commentary, the positive placement in ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on daily chart was clearly indicating of resuming the upward trajectory. Without wasting much of time, the index went on to not only challenge but also surpassed this hurdle on the following session itself. Now for the coming week, the immediate levels to watch out for would be around 36606– 36956; whereas on the flipside, 36256 followed by 35905 are to be seen as key supports.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	36606	36784	36956	36434	36256	36083	35905
Fibonacci	36567	36650	36784	36434	36300	36217	36083
Camarilla	36460	36492	36524	36434	36396	36364	36332