NIFTY WEEKLY PREDICTION & TRADING TIPS FOR 18 APRIL TO 22 APRIL 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	18,066	18,347	18,580	17,833	17,552	17,319	17,038
Fibonacci	18,030	18,151	18,347	17,833	17,637	17,515	17,319
Camarilla	17,831	17,879	17,926	17,833	17,737	17,690	17,643

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The shortened week started on a weak note on 11 April 2022, which was based on the global stock exchanges. The benchmark Nifty50 index moved in a narrow range throughout the session, indicating market participants are cautious. The index ended the lackluster day in red, down 0.62% to settle slightly below the 17700 level. The Indian stock market got a muted start on Tuesday, gapping lower, following weak global signals. Benchmark index Nifty50 tumbled below the crucial 17500 support zone in initial trading and remained range bound for most of the session. There was some sort of recovery at the bottom of the tipping point that helped the Nifty bounce slightly, but a correction set in soon after. Finally, the index ended the day just above the 17500 level, down 0.82%.Market ended lower for the third consecutive session on April 13 on the last trading day of this week with Nifty below 17,500.At Close, the Sensex was down 237 points at 58338, and the Nifty was down 54 points at 17475. Though the global markets have already factored higher levels of inflation owing to high fuel and food prices, the unfavorable numbers dampened investor sentiments. The ECB policy decision will be closely monitored for direction on how the Central bank plans to balance slowing growth and record-high inflation. With the onset of the earnings season, the market is likely to be buoyed by sector specific momentum.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17400; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 17800

Currently, the 17400 level should be closed as any decisive close below it could dampen the inherent bullishness in the market. Placing the index above its significant exponential moving average could be seen as a last resort of relief for the bulls. Meanwhile, the earnings season is expected to play a crucial role in the short-term trend movement. Currently, the index placement on the chart shows the lost traction due to the shortened week followed by the earnings season. However, the market undertone is likely to remain in favor of the bulls until 17400 level remains intact. Looking at the recent price action in the index, 17600 is expected to act as a buffer for any decline, followed by the 17400 level's sacrosanct support zone. On the contrary, the bullish momentum was seen once the critical 17900- 18000 was decisively breached. 

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Nifty has experienced profit taking and tested the first line of defense i.e. H. 20 EMA. Signs point to a recovery on the weekly monthday; However, the upside may also remain limited. According to the derivative data, the 17700-17800 zone is holding a strong resistance for the day while 17600 would act as a cushion. Participants should consider a buy-on dips approach. The NSE Nifty 50 Index can trade in the 17400-17700 range. Nifty ATM options implied volatility also suggests little volatility on either side of this range in the monthly session. The opening minutes of the session show that the 17600 saw high put writing activity. On the other hand, on the upside, call writing is seen at the 17700 and 17800 levels, although the maximum call OI is at 18000. In any case, given the very high amount of call OI at 17700-17800, the tops from current levels will remain limited and markets could spend the day in sideways movement as far as intraday moves are concerned. India VIX, a market volatility indicator often referred to as a fear gauge, is currently trading at 18.25%, down from 19% last week. The Nifty ATM options implied volatility for the current series is 15.90% as opposed to 18.23% last week, indicating low volatility on both sides during the monthly session. Nifty OI distribution of put options shows that 17500 has the highest OI concentration followed by 17400 and 17300 which could serve as support for the current month and on the call front was 17600 followed by 17700 and 17800 , witnessing significant OI concentration and may act as resistance for April 21, 2022 expiry. On the weekly options, call writing was seen at 17,600 strikes followed by 17,700 & 17,800, while on the put side, notable writing activity was seen at the 17,500, 17,400 & 17,200 strikes. Options data points to an immediate range between the 17800 and 17300 levels.

BANKNFITY PREDICTION & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 18 APRIL TO 22 APRIL 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	38,024	38,300	38,680	37,644	37,368	36,988	36,712
Fibonacci	37,895	38,050	38,300	37,644	37,394	37,239	36,988
Camarilla	37,808	37,868	37,928	37,644	37,687	37,627	37,567

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The Bank Nifty index saw fresh short position built up in the future segment indicating weakness. The index however is stuck in a broad range between 37,000-38,000 and a breach on either side will result in trending action.  The index if breaches the level of 37,000 next week will open room for further downside towards 36,000 level. Banknifty points to an immediate trading range between 37500-38500 levels. The Banknifty is unlikely to break above 38500 in coming week expiry 21 dec 2022, thus advising investors to wait for a dip around 37500-37800 or a break above 38200 to go long. For the banknifty , we suggest taking a buy-on-dips approach. Very high call writing is seen at 38200 levels on the Bank Nifty front. This level also has the maximum Call OI accumulation. As such, Bank Nifty is unlikely to go beyond this point. On the downside it has support at 37500 for the next week . Bank Nifty has proved resilient given recent profit taking; However, crossing the 38500 zone would be difficult in coming week . On the downside, the 37500 level has a maximum PE OI, so this zone would act as immediate support. Participants should wait for a dip around 37600-37700 or a breakout above 38000 to go long. The Bank Nifty Put Options OI distribution shows that 37500 has the highest OI concentration, followed by 37200 and 37000, which could act as support for the current expiration, and on the call front, 38000 showed, followed by 38500 and 39000, a significant OI concentration and could act as a drag. On the weekly options of 21 april 2022 expiry , call writing was seen at 38000, 38200, and 38500, while on the put side, it was seen at 37000, 37200, and 37500. Options data showed an immediate trading range between 37000 and 38000.

WHAT WILL BE THE NIFTY MOVE IN NEXT WEEK 18 APRIL 2022 ???

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Market remained in negative territory for a third day in a volatile session on Wednesday, as inflation surged to a 17-month high in March. The Sensex slipped into the red around midday, closing 260 points lower at 58315, while the Nifty ended at 17465, 64 points lower. points. Markets made a meaningful bottom in March and we have been trying to figure out how to really manage this entire move higher while news flow remains negative. In the very short term we have key support which is close to the 20 day moving average, it is also a 61% retracement of the rally we saw from 17000 sometime in late March to the highs and then we have each other withdrawn. So around 17425-17400 is a critical support level. For Nifty, 17425 will act as very strong support on breaking which we might see 17350 levels and if this level is also breached than next stop will be around 17300 levels. On upper side 17600 will act as very strong resistance, if Nifty goes beyond these levels than next stop will be around 17700, which if broken will take markets to 17800 levels.

RESULT IN THE NEXT WEEK 18-04-2022 TO 22-04-2022

Mindtree Ltd 18-04-2022

ACC & Larsen & Toubro Infotech Ltd  19-04-2022

Tata Elxsi Ltd  & ICICI Securities Ltd  20-04-2022

HCL Tech , L&T Technology Services Ltd     21-04-22

L&T Technology   21-04-22

Tata Metaliks Ltd 22-04-2022

NIFTY BEARISH OR BULLISH ? READ OUTLOOK FOR 13/04/2022

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Concerns over a slowdown in consumer spending following a rise in fuel prices ahead of the earnings season hit investor sentiment today. Hyperinflation and the risk of interest rate hikes are rattling the global market and hurting the performance of rising yielding stocks. Inflation in India is also expected to be on the higher side in the first quarter of FY23, expected to ease on a reversal in commodity prices and improving supply. The domestic market is also cautious in anticipation of the Q4 results. Nifty, posting the open to the downside, broke 17600, the key support level. Indian benchmark indices ended April 12 for the second consecutive month lower in volatile trading. At the close, the Sensex was down 388 points to 58576 and the Nifty was down 144 points to 17530.

Technically, the Nifty has closed below the 10-day SMA after a long time. We think the broader market structure is still weak and renewed uptrend rally is only possible after breaks above 17650. Below these levels we could see further weakness to 17600-17500. The Nifty broke off an inside bar pattern formed on the daily chart on April 11th. However, the selling pressure was absorbed near the 20-day moving average, prompting the bulls to act. Consequently, the index managed to hold the 17500 level on a closing basis. The overall structure suggests that the index has reached the bottom of near-term consolidation with the recent minor dip. 17500-17400 is a crucial support zone from where the index can make a bounce up towards 18000. Therefore, from a short-term trading perspective, the risk reward at this level is quite attractive to open a new long position. On the other hand, if Nifty manages to trade 17650, it will rally to 17700 and 17800. The market structure is volatile therefore level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the traders. The Bank Nifty Bulls came back strong in the second half, outperforming the Nifty Index. The index is near the 38000 resistance zone and it needs to decisively break above this level for the bulls to take full control. The 37400-37300 lower zone acts as a bid area and a close below will trigger new selling pressure.

Resistance: 17600, 17700, 17800

Support: 17500, 17400, 17300

NIFTY & NIFTYBANK PREDICTION FOR 12 APRIL 2022

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,884	17,984	18,126	17,743	17,642	17,500	17,400
Fibonacci	17,835	17,892	17,984	17,743	17,650	17,593	17,500
Camarilla	17,835	17,828	17,851	17,743	17,762	17,740	17,718

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The market closed on Monday, April 11, 2022 on a negative note. The investors are skeptical about the ECB meeting, the release of US inflation data and the start of the domestic Q4 earnings season. Indian IT sector suffered from weak earnings expectations on a QoQ basis. For this shortened week as market is closed due to holiday on 14 April & 15 April, the market is cautious as trading is on the upside of the trend and momentum has shifted from broad to stock specific. Negative sentiment on Asian equities impacted local stocks as investors followed suit and trimmed their positions in risky contracts. Investors particularly avoided technology stocks ahead of TCS results on concerns that a muted earnings outlook for the next quarter could lead to further selling in the sector. Benchmark indices closed lower on April 11th with Nifty closing below 17700, dragged by IT and capital goods stocks. At the close the Sensex was down 482 points at 58964 and the Nifty was down 109 points at 17675.

After a negative open, the Nifty has been hovering in the 17780 -17650 range. Technically, on daily charts, the index has formed a small bearish candle inside the body, suggesting indecisiveness between bulls and bears. We believe that a 10-day SMA and a 17642 retracement support zone would act as key support levels for the Nifty. Additionally, a strong possibility of a pullback rally to 17884-17984  is not ruled out. On the downside, below the 17742 range breakout, the market could retest the 17642-17500 level. The battle between bulls and bears in the Bank Nifty index continued and a break above 38,000 will confirm the upside. The lower end of the 37,000-36,800 zone will act as a buffer and a decisive break below will only result in further selling pressure.

Resistance: 17806, 17892, 17984

Support: 17742, 17650, 17500

BANKNFITY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 11 APRIL TO 13 APRIL 2022

The Nifty Bank Index closed positive on Friday. Stocks of Bandhan Bank (up 2.53%) AU Small Finance Bank (up 1.98%) Federal Bank (up 1.78%) IndusInd Bank (up 1.34%) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.02%) ended the day as the top winner in the pack. On the other hand IDFCBANK (down 1.3%) and HDFC Bank (down 0.14%) ended the day as the biggest losers. The Nifty Bank Index closed up 0.52% at 37752.

Bank Nifty Outlook

On the daily chart the index has formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow indicating selling pressure and resistance at higher levels. The index is floating in a higher top and higher bottom formation on the daily chart indicating a near-term uptrend. The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty breaks above the 37800 level and holds there would be some buying taking the index towards the 38000-38200 range. However if the index falls below the 37500 level there would be selling that would take the index towards 37200-37000. Banknifty is trading above the 20-day SMAs which is signaling a bullish bias in the short to medium term. Bank Nifty remains in an uptrend over the medium and long term so buying on the downside remains our preferred strategy. The daily strength indicator RSI has turned positive and is above its reference line indicating continued strength.

Bank Nifty Derivative Outlook

On the daily chart the index has formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow indicating selling pressure and resistance at higher levels. The index is floating in a higher top and higher bottom formation on the daily chart indicating a short-term uptrend. The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty breaks through 37800 and holds there would be some buying that would lead the index towards the 38000-38200 range. However if the index falls below the 37500 level there would be selling that would take the index towards 37200-37000. Banknifty is trading above the 20-day SMAs signaling a bullish bias in the short to medium term. Bank Nifty remains in an uptrend in the medium and long term so buying on the downside remains our preferred strategy. The daily strength indicator RSI has turned positive and is above its reference line indicating continued strength.

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 11 APRIL TO 13 APRIL 2022

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Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,914	18,159	18,614	17,459	17,215	16,759	16,515
Fibonacci	17,726	17,891	18,159	17,459	17,192	17,026	16,759
Camarilla	17,734	17,798	17,862	17,459	17,606	17,542	17,478

On Monday morning, the SGX Nifty pointed to a sluggish start on muted global indicators. However, during the pre-opening period, the news came out regarding the merger of two huge companies, HDFC Ltd and HDFC Bank. This led to an outpouring by these two heavyweights, which then rubbed off on the broader market. The most important indices, the Nifty and Bank Nifty, took off right from the start. With the HDFC conglomerate known for its solid reputation, this news flow gave the rally a much-needed boost. As a result, Nifty zoomed towards 18000 and maintained its stable stance throughout the day despite some small profit bookings mid-session. The spectacular parade on Monday was followed on Tuesday morning by a quiet start in the countryside. However, in initial trading, small gains simply disappeared and the index slipped into consolidation mode thereafter. Profit booking extended somewhat in the first half and as it progressed the Nifty tested the 17950 level. Fortunately, buying resumed as we entered the second half and recouped all losses. However, towards the end of the fag, the market suddenly became jittery, resulting in a sharp downtrend that also slipped below the morning low. Finally, Nifty finished the session convincingly below 18,000, losing over half a percent. The tail-end profit booking in the previous session was extended at the open itself on Wednesday when we experienced a jittery start on sluggish global cues. Barring a mid-session try, the index remained under pressure, hovering around the bottom for most of the day. As a result, the Nifty ended the session just above 17800 by losing another eight tenths of a percent. Thursday's session replicated the previous session as we first saw a gap to the downside on sluggish global cues and then, despite a mid-session rally, ended the session close to a daily low. In contrast to Wednesday, however, the trading range was slightly larger. Finally, the Nifty ended the weekly decline on a negative note slightly below the 17650 level, losing another percent. Friday market broke a three-day losing streak to finish higher with Nifty above 17700 after the RBI's monetary policy committee kept interest rates on hold. Finally, the Sensex was up 412 points to 59447 and the Nifty was up 144 points to 17784. The market has been cautious in the last 2-3 days ahead of the RBI meeting and its future policy stance. Actions in line with market expectations led to a recovery rally. The focus has shifted to the Q4 earnings season, which starts next week and is being initiated by the IT and banking sectors. The outlook for the banking sector is robust on the back of a rapid pick-up in credit growth and improving balance sheets, while the outlook for IT is mixed as the fourth quarter is seasonally weak.

 

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17215; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 18159

The benchmark Nifty found support around the previous session's low, leading to a positive close for the day. On the upside, however, the Nifty found resistance around the lower band of the rising channel. In the future, the trend could continue in the short term. On the top end, the index might face resistance at 18159, while on the bottom end, there is support at 17215.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Markets ended their 3-day losing streak as investors bought again after the RBI said in its monetary policy announcement that it would continue its accommodative stance and stated that inflation would cool going forward. Sentiment was also supported by a rise in other global indices, boosting investor confidence, although concerns over rising US bond yields, likely rate hikes and sanctions on Russia continued to weigh on markets. Technically, after a short-term correction, on weekly charts the Nifty has formed a doji candlestick formation that clearly shows the indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. The market took support near the 10-day SMA and has formed a promising reversal pattern that is suggesting a continuation of a pullback rally in the near future. We believe that the bounded texture is likely to persist in the short-term. For the bulls, 17215 would be the key support zone above which the index could reach the 17914-18159 level. On the other hand, if the index closes below the 10-day SMA or 17459, it could reach the 17215-16759 levels.

NIFTY PREDICTION & TIPS FOR F&O 8 APRIL 2022

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Negative sentiment continued for the third straight session as the US Fed's hawkish stance has raised concerns about steeper rate hikes, while investors trimmed positions ahead of RBI policy, although most experts believe the MPC maintain the status quo on policy rates. The decline was primarily due to profit-taking in Reliance Industries and other energy stocks amid volatility in global crude oil prices. The market ended lower for the third straight session on April 7 ahead of tomorrow's RBI policy outcome. At the close the Sensex was down 575 points to 59034 and the Nifty down 168 points to 17639. The Bank Nifty Index pre-RBI policy remains subdued as HDFC Bank continues to exert heavy selling pressure. Technically, the Nifty is still holding the lower high formation on intraday charts and has also formed a bearish candle that is mostly negative. However, over the past three days the index has corrected by over 475 points and is currently trading near the key retracement support level after a short-term correction. The Nifty had recently tumbled near the upper Bollinger daily band and a falling trendline drawn from the October high. This was followed by a setback for the last three sessions. On the downside, it has filled in the recent gap range of 17791-17703 and is approaching the bottom of an inverse rising channel that lies near 17550. Selling pressure is expected to be absorbed near 17550-17500. The overall structure suggests that the index has re-entered a short-term consolidation phase and consolidation may take place in the next few sessions in the 17,500-18,000 range. Nifty has fallen out of the rising channel on the daily chart, indicating an easing bull market. The daily RSI is in a bearish crossover. The trend looks negative in the short term. On the lower end, support is seen at 17,450 while resistance is seen at 17,750-17,800. Technically, the Nifty Index had tested resistance at the upper Bollinger Band pattern and traded below it, suggesting weakness in the meter. In addition, the index also closed the weekly gap, moving below the previous week's close. A momentum indicator RSI has turned down from overbought territory. However, an indicator MACD is still showing a positive crossover on the daily scale. On a four-hour chart, the index has formed a bearish Marubozu candle, signaling bearishness for the coming day. Currently, the index has support at 17,430 levels while resistance is placed at 17,800 levels. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 36,850 levels while resistance lies at 38,000 levels. The bank needs to close above the 38000 level to resume the uptrend. A clear direction will be visible once the policy is announced.

NIFTY PREDICTION & TIPS FOR F&O 7 APRIL 2022

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The market ended April 6 for the second straight day lower on weak global cues and selling in auto, bank and IT names. At the close the Sensex was down 566 points to 59610 and the Nifty down 149 points to 17807. The benchmark index found resistance around the previous low before settling on a negative note. On the daily chart, the index has been moving within a rising channel where it has fallen to the lower band of said channel. Traders rushed to further reduce their positions in banking and IT stocks, dragging key benchmark indices significantly lower. Weakness in other global markets and concerns of a hawkish US Federal Reserve likely to hike interest rates, coupled with caution ahead of the RBI policy meeting, prompted investors to avert risk.

Going forward, an immediate recovery from current levels is expected. However, failure to sustain above the lower band of the rising channel can trigger selling pressure in the market. On the downside, support is visible at 17775, below which the Nifty could drift towards 17750 in the short-term. For traders 17700 would act as an immediate hurdle and below that a weak formation is likely to continue to 17650-17600. However, above 17850 the index could rise to 17900-17950. The Nifty has strong support between 17700 and 17800 and therefore contra traders can take a long bet near 17700 with a strict support stop at 17625.

Resistance: 18150, 18200, 18250

Support: 18000, 17950, 17900