NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 01 SEP 2022

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The Nifty saw volatile action on September 1st. The index had experienced a rapid upward movement in the previous session; However, there were no follow-up purchases today. Markets have traded volatile, losing over a percent and a half as weighed down by weak global markets. After the gap down start, the Nifty oscillated in the range and eventually settled at 17542. Most sectoral indices traded in tandem, but the broader rally kept participants on their toes. Benchmark indices closed lower with Nifty below 17,600, mainly dragged by IT, metals, energy and oil & gas stocks. In the end, the Sensex was up 770 points at 58766 and the Nifty was up 216 points at 17542. Throughout the day, the index oscillated around the major hourly moving averages and the 20 DMA. Finally, the daily chart's Nifty has formed an inside bar pattern. Nifty remained sideways throughout the day before ending 1% lower. After starting to slide lower on weak global cues, the Nifty failed to fully recover, trading within a range for the day. Markets remained volatile throughout the week as benchmarks simply followed weak global cues, falling over 1%. Gloomy manufacturing data in Europe and Asia weighed on sentiment and renewed fears of slowing global demand. Markets were unable to celebrate August's strong GST earnings as the Fed's dovish stance and the prospect of further rate hikes hurting future growth kept investors nervous. Markets are showing tremendous resilience amid weak global signals and the recent consolidation should be seen as a breather to digest gains. Therefore, we recommend continuing the buy-on-dips approach. Banks, financials and autos top our list of preferred sectors, while the underperformance of the IT package could continue to hurt. Participants should adjust their positions accordingly. The overall structure shows that the index has been in a short-term consolidation for the last few weeks and that this is likely to continue. 17300-17800 is the broad range for the short-term consolidation. The momentum indicator is in a bearish crossover, which suggests a bear market. On the downside, 17450 could continue to act as a crucial support, below which the index could weaken again. On the upper end, resistance is seen at 17750. Technically, 17400would be the key support level while 17700 could represent the immediate hurdle for the market. Below 17400 the Nifty could slide to 17300-17200. On the upside, new uptrend is possible only after breakout of 17700 range. Above that, the index could rise to 17800-18000.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 30 AUG 2022

The sharp sell-off in US markets has changed global sentiment and is affecting our markets as well. Markets experienced a red sea on Dalal Street as the Fed prioritized inflation flight over growth. The Nifty plummeted, ending deep in red as bears were seen in total control after Jerome Powell's remark during his Jackson Hole appearance that interest rates may continue to rise to fight inflation. Markets started the week on a weak note, falling over a percent, weighed down by weak global sentiment. After the gap-down start, the benchmark was in a narrow range for most sessions. At the close, the Sensex was down 861 points to 57972 and the Nifty down 246 points to 17312. The majority of the sector indices traded in line with the index and ended lower with the IT package losing maximum. Investors had already picked up a bearish undertone at the start of the week after the US Fed Chair spoke of further rate hikes to tame inflation in his speech on Friday. And as expected, Sensex plummeted nearly 1,500 points in early trades before gaining some ground to close its daily low. The Nifty had experienced a minor bounce over the past week, retracing almost 61.8% of the first leg of the fall. Structurally, the index was preparing for a downward movement. Accordingly, on August 29, the index had a huge downward gap. Traders expect more bouts of volatility in the coming sessions amid concerns that continued US rate hikes could pose a threat to the global economy and hurt growth prospects. Technically, the Nifty closed below the 20-day SMA (simple moving average), which is largely negative. On the way down, the index broke the 17350 swing low, which was retested with an intraday bounce. Although the index saw some recovery throughout the day, it is unlikely to make any further headway. 17400-17500 is an immediate resistance zone where the index is likely to attract another round of selling. The overall short-term target remains at 17200. For all the negativity, some sectors/stocks are still showing tremendous resilience so the focus should be more on selection to navigate during the correction phase. Nifty slid sharply as it broke out of consolidation on the daily chart, signaling an increase in the bearish bet in the market. Momentum oscillator RSI is in a bearish crossover and is falling towards the oversold zone. The short-term trend at the crossroads looks weak, at the bottom the index could drift lower towards 17,000-16,800 in the short-term. On the upper end, resistance is seen at 17500.

Resistance: 17400, 17550, 17700

Support: 17300, 17150, 17000 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 26 AUG 2022

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Amid heightened volatility, investors reduced their long positions on the F&O expiry date due to the uncertain global economic scenario. There are concerns that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Friday's Jackson Hole symposium would focus on further rate hikes to curb inflation. Also, the benchmark indices have been close to slipping into negative zones in the last two sessions and hence the correction has been on the expected lines. On a monthly expiration, the Nifty opened on a green note, hitting an intraday high of 17726, but in the last hour of the session saw profit booking from a higher level, closing at 17522 for a loss of 82 points. Ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, investors around the world are eagerly awaiting the Fed Chair's speech to assess the outlook for monetary policy and whether the central bank can achieve a soft landing for the economy. Benchmark indices ended the highly volatile session lower by 17500 with Nifty. At the close, the Sensex was down 310 points to 58774. Crude oil prices rose as Saudi Arabia suggested OPEC+ supply could be reduced to counter market instability. Although Indian equities are trading at a premium to other emerging markets, consistent support from FIIs is guiding the domestic market. The Bank Index saw selling pressures from higher levels and failed to clear the 39,500 hurdle to the upside. Immediate downside support lies in 38500-38400 area and if broken will result in further selling pressure on the downside. Index needs to break 38,500-39,500 range for crucial trend moves either side.

On the technical front, the Nifty encountered resistance from the 17700 zone and showed offer, resulting in a bearish candle on the daily timeframe, indicating weakness in the counter. Additionally, Nifty has made a breakdown of the rising trend line, giving weakness to the price. In Open Interest (OI) data, the top was observed at 17700 on the call side, while the top was at 17400 followed by 17200 on the put side. The momentum indicator Stochastic was trading with a negative crossover on an hourly time frame, which is suggesting weakness in the meter. levels. Overall, sector specific momentum can be seen as PSU Bank & Realty shares are looking good for the upcoming session. Technically, the lower top formation on the intraday charts and the bearish trend reversal candle on the daily charts suggest further correction from the current levels. Nifty formed an engulfing pattern after two days of positive movement and set the stage for a bearish reversal. The momentum indicator RSI also points to negative momentum in the short term. On the downside, 17450 should act as initial support; a drop below 17450 could take the index towards 17400. Below 17400 the Nifty could drift towards 17300-17100. On the upper end, resistance is seen at 17600. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 38500 while resistance lies at 39500.

Resistance: 17900, 17950, 18000

Support: 17800, 17700, 17600 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 25 AUG 2022

Bulls and bears continued to battle it out in the domestic market as weak global cues persisted, keeping the market under pressure. The US economy contracted amid muted demand conditions with the service sector witnessing a sharp decline. Markets in Europe experienced a protracted sell-off as a result of investor's concern over the oil crisis and the uncertain growth outlook. Domestic stock markets witnessed a volatile trading session on Wednesday with headline indices dancing between gains and losses. At the end of the day, Sensex added 54 points to settle at 59085 while the Nifty jumped 27 points to close at 17604. Bank Nifty zoomed 0.88% to close above 39000 while India VIX dropped 3% to settle at 18.43. The index remained choppy during the day as the Nifty moved within bands of 17500 and 17600. The daily RSI is in bearish crossover. However, it has sustained above the important near term moving average during the day. After the first leg of the decline from 18000, the Nifty had taken support near the 20 DMA on August 23. Thereon the index is attempting a minor degree bounce. The price action in the last couple of sessions shows an overlapping structure. Also, the index has now reached near the junction of the 40 hour exponential moving average & the hourly upper Bollinger Band. This setup suggests that the next leg down is around the corner. On the downside, 17400-17350 will be the initial target area, below which 17200 will be the overall short term target. On the other hand, 17675-17750 is the key barrier that is expected to keep the bounce in check. The trend for the short term looks sideward. On the higher end, resistance is visible at 17750; whereas on the lower end, support is visible at 17550/17450.

Resistance: 17700, 17750, 17800

Support: 17600, 17500, 17400 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 24 AUG 2022

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Markets saw heightened volatility as Sensex fluctuated more than 1,000 points on the day before late buying in banking, auto, metals and real estate stocks supported the recovery. Fear of uncertainty is evident in the market as it moves with high volatility, led by weak signals from global peers, while a stronger domestic economy offers some comfort. Global markets were under pressure with a rise in European energy prices and fears of rate hikes ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, gains in banks, autos and metals were offset by sales of IT stocks as the majors scale variable pay due to margin pressures. Benchmark indices closed higher on August 23 amid high volatility. To finish, the Sensex was up 257 points, to 59031 and the Nifty was up 86 points to 17577. Markets could see bouts of volatility in the coming days as global factors will continue to keep investors on edge. Technically, after opening a gap to the downside, the Nifty took support near the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and rallied strongly. Nifty ended the day with a significant green candle that pierced the body of the previous bearish candle on the daily chart. On the downside, the Nifty found support at a short-term moving average. Going forward, the trend could remain positive as long as the index sustains above 17500 . At the top end, 17600 can act as an immediate resistance; a decisive move above 17600 could trigger a rally towards 17800-18000 recent high. Nifty ended the day with a significant green candle that pierced the body of the previous bearish candle on the daily chart. On the downside, the Nifty found support at a short-term moving average. Going forward, the trend could remain positive as long as the index sustains above 17500. The Bank Nifty Index staged a strong rebound from lower levels and formed a strong bullish reversal candle. Index downside support lies in the 37900 -37000 range and as long as this support holds, the index remains in a buy-on-dip mode. The immediate upside hurdle is 38900 where call writers are active and once surpassed further short coverage is seen.

Resistance: 17900, 17950, 18000

Support: 17800, 17700, 17600 

NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 22 AUG TO 26 AUG 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17950, 18200, 18500

PIVOT POINT: 17650

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17500, 17300, 17100

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

The truncated week has started from 16 aug 2022 on an optimistic note, taking cues from the positive global bourses. The benchmark index Nifty50 has seen a decent gap up with the opening bell and carried its positive stature throughout the session. Though in midsession, the index witnessed a bout of correction that firmly got bought into by the sturdy bulls of the D-Street. The secular up-trend extended for another day, wherein the index gained nearly 0.72% and settled firmly above the 17800 level. The Indian equity market started 17 aug 2022 session on a promising note tracking the positive global cues. The optimism across the global bourses and favorable domestic macro data has spread buoyancy to our market, resulting in broad-based buying interest. The benchmark index Nifty50 surged upwards for the seventh consecutive session to reclaim the 17900 level and continued its positive stature by procuring over six-tenth of a percent gain. The weakness in the global market led to a mild start on 18 aug 2022 in Indian equities, wherein the benchmark index opened lower on the weekly expiry session Thursday. Soon after, the bulls grabbed the opportunity and made a modest recovery in the index, but the correction got triggered again at the higher levels. Amidst the intense tug of war throughout the day, the bulls retaliated firmly and levitated the index to day’s high. The winning streak continued for the eighth consecutive session, wherein the Nifty concluded the day with a mere gain of 0.07 percent and settled a tad above 17950 level. Despite Wall Street ending in green on Thursday, uncertainty over the pace of interest rate hikes kept Asian and European traders on their toes on Friday. Indian stocks lost more than a per cent but other Asian stocks had mostly a flat day. Europe also lost ground in the morning trade.  On 19 aug 2022 Indian equity market snapped 8-day gaining streak and ended lower with Nifty below 17,800. At Close, the Sensex was down 651 points at 59646, and the Nifty was down 198 points at 17758. Equity benchmarks started the trade on a positive note on Friday but both the indices turned volatile soon after, with the Sensex and the Nifty swinging between gains and losses.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17500; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 18500

The bulls have taken complete control of the market and are being very rigid in letting any correction to happen. The broad-based buying has also bolstered positive sentiments across the participants, which are evident on the technical chart. The unilateral movement of the index has placed it toward the psychological mark of 18000, which might hinder the ongoing up move, followed by the weekly swing high of 18100-18200 odd levels that might act as a sturdy wall for the bulls. On the contrary, 17700-17600 is likely to act as the immediate support zone, whereas the sacrosanct support lies around the 17500 mark.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

After the one-way rally, on 19 aug 2022 markets have witnessed sharp profit booking from higher levels. There is a broad-based decline today on week closing. Nifty broke its last two days' lows and slipped more than 250 points intraday from the high of 17992 to make a low of 17728. Except Nifty IT, which is held in green, all other major sectorial indices saw profit booking. The Bank Nifty index saw the biggest decline as it corrected more than 900 points, or 2.5%, from the intraday highs. India Vix is up 0.8 basis points owing to volatility. Globally as well as domestically, markets are witnessed a sell-off in today’s trading session, with broad-based selling across sectors on the back of valuation concerns, with rate-sensitive stocks leading the correction. Nifty continues to be strongly supported around the 17600-17400 zone, whereas resistance is seen around the 18200-18500 mark. Market has seen a vertical rally in 2-3 weeks, so some sort of profit booking around the psychological mark of 18000 was evident. The benchmark indices are witnessing profit booking after continuous rally since last few weeks. Sectors like Banking, Auto and Power are majorly contributing towards the fall. We may see some more correction of around 3 – 5% in the said sectors. Nifty may touch the levels of 17600 in this momentum . Investors are well advised to adopt a cautious approach at current market levels. We even advised to stay light at higher levels.

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It's been mostly a one-way street for equity markets since July 2022. Domestic stock market benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 ended slightly higher on Thursday, a day of F&O's weekly schedule. Sensex ended 38 points, at 60298, while Nifty was up 12 points, to settle at 17956. The rebound was led by Kotak Bank 4% up, L&T, Bharti Airtel, SBI, HDFC Bank, HDFC and ITC. However, stocks that kept the indexes under pressure during the day included Infosys, TCS, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and Wipro. Following the release of Fed minutes, domestic stocks posted gains amid weak sentiment from global peers. The minutes showed that while concerned about the impact of aggressive action, policymakers favored another rate hike. On the domestic market, IT and pharmaceuticals were the biggest laggards, reacting to the decline in US equities, while financials retained support.

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Nifty has made a strong recovery over the past few weeks. This move has pushed the markets out of the consolidation/correction phase they have been in for several months. Any short-term correction should be used to buy for the medium-term uptrend. Bulls on Dalal Street kept momentum as Sensex zoomed past the psychological 60K level and Nifty moved towards 18K on the backdrop of easing inflation and heavy FII month-to-date buying. While global factors remain a blur, India is seen as a bright spot in today's challenging times. Nifty continues its journey north on continued buying by FIIs and cooling Crude Oil prices, however there is a risk of some profit booking after a 7 day winning streak as Nifty approaches the psychological 18000 level. India has been an outperformer versus EM and DM peers over the past 45 days, gaining on cooling inflation expectations as a commodity importer and reducing equity risk premia as a growth market. FII inflows over the past 45 days totaled $1.5 billion, more than double inflows from domestic institutions. Falling commodity and oil prices also boosted foreign investor confidence. Western markets were weak ahead of US FOMC meeting minutes release. Domestic retail investors have not participated in the recent rally, as evidenced by their net long position in single-stock futures, which has shrunk to $8.5 billion prospectively when Nifty was at 18,000 in early April, the net long position in retail stock futures at $12 billion. The upswing in global markets, particularly in the US, combined with favorable domestic factors, i. H. improving macros, steady foreign flows, etc. are helping the markets to keep the prevailing trend. We therefore reiterate our bullish view and suggest using any interim decline or break to create new longs. The scheduled weekly schedule may result in some lashings, so plan accordingly. PSU banks and IT stocks helped Nifty surpass the 17900 level today however some gain bookings were seen in car names. HDFC twins recouped any early losses that led to a rebound in Bank Nifty from lower levels. Benchmark indices closed higher on August 17 with Nifty closing above 17,900 led by PSU banking, energy and information technology stocks. On completion, the Sensex rose 417 points to 60260 and the Nifty rose 119 points to 17,944. This suggests there may be further room for participation as well as dry powder to cushion declines caused by global macro factors. Banks, industrials and autos led and continue to attract additional flows. While metals stocks saw some shorting, weaker global growth momentum would act as a headwind for any significant upward revision of earnings estimates. IT appears to be the most vulnerable in this environment as it impacts US and EU growth. A longer period of consolidation is possible before the index attempts to move towards the 18500 level. IT stocks remain strong while metals continue to consolidate. Value is seen in select midcap stocks. Consistent participation by FIIs is the backbone of the current domestic market rally. This reversal in FII trend is credited to the resilience of the Indian economy even as inflation continues to plague western markets. Technically, the market is consistently making higher highs and higher lows, suggesting the continuation of an uptrend in the near future.  Nifty has remained above the declining trend line, confirming the continuation of the ongoing bull run. The uptrend remains intact as the barometer index has not shown any weakness. The popular momentum oscillator is in a severely overbought zone but has no bearish crossover, suggesting the continuation of the bullish momentum. On the upper end for intraday 18 aug 2022, resistance is seen at 18100-18200. Support at 17800 is visible on the lower end for intraday 18 aug 2022. The Nifty has also formed a bullish candle on the daily charts, which also supports the uptrend. However, a quick intraday correction is not out of the question if the index trades below 17800 , and below that it could reach the 17700 -17600 levels. On the upside, above 17950 the first upside target for the index would be 18,000 and further rise could see it move up to 18150. Bank Nifty is consolidating near the 39600 level where we can expect some profit booking towards the 39200-38500 zone, while if it holds above the 39600 level we can expect a move towards the 40k level.

Resistance: 18050, 18150, 18250

Support: 17950, 17850, 17750

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The market started the shortened week on an upbeat note amid supportive global cues. The benchmark saw a gap open and then continued to trade in positive territory throughout the session. Healthy buying in sectors such as autos, FMCG and real estate fueled the rally. Consequently, the Nifty ended up 0.72% higher at 17,825 levels. Among the broader markets, mid-cap and small-cap outperformed to finish in positive territory of 1-1.5%. Almost all industry indices ended in the green except for PSU Bank and Media. Markets maintained their bullish bias throughout the trading session, helped by positive global cues and few domestic factors that prompted a rally in real estate, auto and banking stocks. The declining level of domestic inflation has raised expectations that central bank rate hikes could slow down going forward. While a strong FII fund infusion has certainly boosted investor sentiment. Easing inflationary pressures have encouraged domestic investors to remain optimistic about the pace of economic recovery. Better-than-expected CPI read, helped by slower food and fuel price rises, could limit the pace of RBI rate hikes. In the Asian market, the Chinese central bank surprised the market by cutting interest rates after weak economic data. After that, oil prices collapsed on demand concerns. Markets will continue to mirror global competitors for clues. In the meantime, we recommend investors continue to maintain a stock-specific approach. Also, investors will keep a close eye on fluctuating crude oil prices and currency movements. The Bank Nifty Index formed a doji candle on the daily chart, indicating indecisiveness at the current level. The index is showing signs of exhaustion after an amazing rally, but a profit-booking scenario will not be confirmed until a close below 38600. If the index breaks above 39400 on a closing basis, the rally will be extended towards the 39700-40000 level. Technically, the Nifty has held the higher bottom formation on intraday charts and 17700 would be the trend decision level. Above that, the index could reach the 17800-17900 level. On the upside, a quick intraday correction is possible if the index trades below 17700 and could retest below 17600-17500.

Resistance: 17900, 17950, 18000

Support: 17800, 17700, 17600 

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17900, 18200, 18500

PIVOT POINT: 17650

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17500, 17300, 17100

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

The global cues were muted Monday morning and hence, our markets too started the week on a flat note. After a small dip in the initial trades, the buying resumed at lower levels. In fact, the momentum kept on accelerating as the day progressed to close almost at the highest point of the day. Eventually, the heavyweights led rally resulted in Nifty reclaiming the 17500 mark on a closing basis, highest level since April 11. On Tuesday market was shut on occasion of muhuram. Despite quiet global cues Wednesday 10 aug 2022 morning, our markets started the session slightly on the positive side. However, within a blink of an eye, this tiny lead just got disappeared. After a small pause, the buying emerged at lower levels after entering the sub-17450 terrain. The momentum wasn’t as strong as it was on Monday’s session. As a result, the Nifty kept consolidating throughout the remaining part of the session and eventually ended the session tad above previous close. The US markets climbed overnight after easing inflation report and Thursday 11 aug 2022 morning too, they extended the lead. This development resulted in a bump up at the opening in our markets, mirroring the SGX NIFTY. It appeared as if we are going to witness a bumper session on weekly expiry, but the follow up was clearly missing as benchmark index Nifty chose to consolidate in merely 60 points throughout the remaining part of the session. Eventually the day ended with seven tenths of percent gains; but convincingly below the opening level. Market ended near the day’s high on 12 aug 2022 in the highly volatile session with Nifty around 17,700. At Close, the Sensex was up 130 points at 59462, and the Nifty was up 39 points at 17698.

NIFTY: A STRONG SUPPORT WILL BE @ 17500; STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL SEEN @ 18000

Nifty managed to continue its northward trajectory. The undertone is strongly bullish and now next level to watch out for is 18000. On the flipside, the immediate support is placed in the vicinity of 17500 – 17300. Traders can continue with their buy on decline strategy but one should avoid being complacent as a momentum trader. Markets are continuing with their vertical move and in such scenario, we do not get any swing lows which generally be referred as strong base.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

On the technical front, Nifty formed a small negative candle with a gap up opening on the daily chart. the trendline resistance adjoining the highs of Oct’21, Jan’22 and Apr’22 will be the immediate resistance zone on the higher side which is around 17800 to 18000 , likewise support base has now shifted higher to 17500 to 17200 range. Hence one can expect a range-bound action in the market. Momentum oscillator though are trading in overbought price conditions, but no signs of exhaustion can be seen yet rather had been supportive with weekly RSI breached past the 6-months falling trend line. Market breadth has seen remarkable improvement, indicating broader market participation across sectors. Classical theorist can claim that there has been a falling channel breakout and is likely to head higher towards the 18000 levels as it is 80% retracement of entire decline off October 2021 to June low (18500-15500). Thus, during the next week Nifty is likely to open flat to slightly negative though positive bias is likely to remain and intraday dip towards 17500-17200 need to be hunted for creating long position for the target of 18000.The Bank Nifty index continued its strong up move throughout the week and surpassed the level of 39,000 on a closing basis. The index next resistance is placed at 39,500 where fresh call writing has been witnessed and if breached will see a further up move towards the 40000 level. The immediate support on the downside stands at 38,000 and one should keep a buy-on-dip approach.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 11 AUG 2022

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In the volatile session, the Indian benchmark indices ended on a flat note on August 10th. At the close the Sensex was down 35 points to 58817 and the Nifty was up 9 points to 17534. Investors were cautious in anticipation of the release of US inflation statistics, which will set the tone for the next Fed meeting. US CPI inflation is expected to remain elevated in July and in line with June inflation levels. This, coupled with strong payrolls data, will force the Fed to continue taking a tough approach to contain high levels of inflation. The Nifty recently surpassed the 78.6% retracement of the April-June decline, which is near 17500. On August 10, the Nifty got off to a positive start, but there were no follow-up purchases. As a result, the index consolidated its recent gains near 17500 for the day. Benchmark indices closed flat amid volatility. Capital goods and metals stocks are seeing strong buying while IT stocks are seeing some selling today.On the technical front, Nifty 50 is showing bullish momentum after the recent consolidation and this momentum could extend to the 17600-17800 level in the near term. On the downside, 17200 could remain an immediate support at Nifty. Immediate support and resistance for Bank Nifty stands at 37750 and 38700 respectively. Although the short-term momentum indicators are weak, the price action is maintaining the uptrend. Minor dips are supported near the 20 hourly moving average. 

SBIN STOCK OUTLOOK & REPORT FOR AUG 2022

Despite system-beating credit growth, SBI missed PAT at Rs61 crore (estimate: Rs85 crore) mainly due to MTM hitting investments of Rs65 crore. This was further compounded by a slight decline in margins and lower bad debt collections. We believe that a smoother rise in G-sec yields on an incremental basis (protected to 7.45% yield) and an opex advantage (due to lower pension/separate subsidiary for back-end work) should help the bank in 9MFY23 to report healthy profitability. SBI also reported strong loan growth of 16% yoy/3% qoq, but it was mainly led by strong growth in the low-margin foreign book, which mainly pushed margins down 10 basis points qoq to 3%. However, we believe better LDR and asset repricing should support margin growth, which coupled with lower operating expenses should result in a healthy 20% core earnings CAGR over FY22-25E. Q1 gross slippages were seasonally higher at Rs101bn/1.6% of loans, picking up the pace of the sharp slowdown in 3Q NPAs to 3.9%. However, the restructured pool was reduced to 1% of the loans. Allowing for higher Treasury losses, we've cut our FY23-25E earnings estimates by 9-3%, but we're still reporting a decade-high 14-17% RoE, excluding stock dilution.

Outlook

SBI has come a long way and is now much better positioned to deliver sustained profitable growth but is still trading at cheap valuations (1x FY24E ABV). Maintain Buy/OW in EAP with TP of Rs640 and value core bank at 1.3x June FY24E ABV and subs/investments at Rs207. SBI remains one of our favorite large-cap stocks after ICICI Bank.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & RESULT AHEAD ON 10 AUGUST 2022

10-Aug-22
COMPANY NAME	ANNOUNCEMENT DATE
3M India Ltd	01-Aug-22
Aarti Industries Ltd	02-Aug-22
Abbott India Ltd	29-Jul-22
Allcargo Logistics Ltd	04-Aug-22
Avanti Feeds Ltd	15-Jul-22
CESC Ltd	03-Aug-22
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd	12-Jul-22
Coal India Ltd	02-Aug-22
Cochin Shipyard Ltd	04-Aug-22
Cummins India Ltd	28-Jul-22
Eicher Motors Ltd	03-Aug-22
Endurance Technologies Ltd	13-Jul-22
Equitas Holdings Ltd	02-Aug-22
General Insurance Corporation of India	02-Aug-22
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd	29-Jul-22
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd	19-Jul-22
HEG Ltd	20-Jul-22
Hikal Ltd	03-Aug-22
Hindalco Industries Ltd	01-Aug-22
HLE Glascoat Ltd	02-Aug-22
Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd	03-Aug-22
Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Ltd	30-Jul-22
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd	01-Aug-22
Ipca Laboratories Ltd	28-Jul-22
ITI Ltd	03-Aug-22
Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd	02-Aug-22
Max Healthcare Institute Ltd	27-Jul-22
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd	02-Aug-22
Medplus Health Services Ltd	04-Aug-22
Metropolis Healthcare Ltd	04-Aug-22
NBCC (India) Ltd	26-Jul-22
New India Assurance Company Ltd	01-Aug-22
NHPC Ltd	20-Jul-22
Oil India Ltd	01-Aug-22
Patanjali Foods Ltd	01-Aug-22
PB Fintech Ltd	03-Aug-22
Pidilite Industries Ltd	11-Jul-22
Privi Speciality Chemicals Ltd	02-Aug-22
Radico Khaitan Ltd	02-Aug-22
RHI Magnesita India Ltd	02-Aug-22
Steel Authority of India Ltd	04-Aug-22
Suzlon Energy Ltd	04-Aug-22
Tata Consumer Products Ltd	18-Jul-22
Uflex Ltd	02-Aug-22
Zydus Lifesciences Ltd	03-Aug-22

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Despite a minor blip in the early trades, the bulls quickly rebounded and maintained their stranglehold even as other Asian peers ended mixed. FIIs that have been absent from the action in recent months have started to get exposure to local equities again, giving a major boost to the markets. The positive takeaway from today's trading session was that Nifty bulls clawed their way out of the hole, particularly after SGX indicated Nifty morning drubbing. Markets surge during intraday trade as Nifty ended well above the psychological 17500 level. For the past few sessions, the Nifty has been hovering around the 78.6% retracement of the April-June decline, which is close to 17500. On August 8th, the Nifty crossed this key Fibonacci level on a closing basis. This shows that the index continues to extend its upward movement. Benchmark indices closed higher on August 8th with Nifty closing above 17500. Finally, the Sensex was up 465.14 points, to 58853 and the Nifty was up 127 points to 17525.

It is heading for a falling trendline drawn from the previous crucial swing highs. Thus, 17700-17800 will be the short-term target area on the upside. On the other hand, the short-term support zone is also shifting north and now stands at 17350-17250. The biggest positive catalyst is that oil is hovering around the 6-month low at $88.35 a barrel. The technical landscape for Nifty should be positive as long as the benchmark trades above its major support at 17125 with targets at 17750 and then all optimistic eyes are on Nifty's psychological 17800-1800 level.  Technically, after a subdued open, the market successfully cleared the short-term resistance at 17525, which is broadly positive. A bullish candle on daily charts and an intraday breakout formation are suggesting further upside from the current levels. For the benchmark Nifty, the key support level lies at 17450 and above that, the breakout pattern is likely to continue to 17600-17700. On the other hand, the index could slip below 17450-17350-17250.

Resistance: 16675, 16775, 16875

Support: 16575, 16475, 16375 

STOCK RESULT FROM 8 AUG TO 13 AUG 2022

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NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TECHNICAL VIEW FOR COMING WEEK 8 AUG TO 12 AUG 2022

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17550, 17750, 17900

PIVOT POINT: 17500

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17350, 17150, 16900

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

We witnessed an auspicious start to the new week and month on August 1, 2022, where the

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 5 AUG 2022

The Sensex & Nifty broke a six-day winning streak to finish slightly lower on Thursday, weighed down by market heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) and bank stocks. The Sensex fell 51 points to close at 58298 while the Nifty slipped 6 points to settle at 17382. Both indices had opened over 0.5% higher earlier in the day, led by gains in information technology (IT) stocks, but ended up soon turning negative on morning offers. However, in the last hour of trading, they trimmed their intraday losses to end with minor cuts. Domestic market volatility has increased in the last 3 days. However, strong buying at lower levels has helped Nifty maintain its positive close for 6-7 consecutive days. This shows the underlying strength of Indian markets despite increasing volatility and escalating geopolitical tensions. After surging sharply over the past few days, Nifty is now trading at 20x FY23 PE, which is above its 10-year moving average and thus offers limited upside potential in the short-term. The RBI policy result on Friday would be the key event the market would follow. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors that would determine market direction. The Nifty tested the 78.6% retracement of the April-June decline on Aug 4th. It missed the short term target of 17550 by a small margin from which profit booking was triggered. As a result, the index experienced a steep drop in the first half of the session. It managed some recovery in the second half, but eventually a bearish outside bar and a hanging man candle formed on the daily chart. The markets ended their 6-day winning streak based on profit booking. This shows that the index is now entering a short-term consolidation phase. 17100-17600 is expected as a near-term consolidation area. As the index has tumbled near the top of the range, it is likely to move towards the bottom of the range, i.e. 17100, move. Volatility was the hallmark of today's trading as a nifty amid reports of raising US tensions in China. The positive takeaway, however, was that Nifty recouped most of its losses from the daily low of 17161 to finish a bit below the dotted lines at the 17400 level. Technically, immediate support for Nifty is seen at 17121 and below, expects the index to slide quickly towards 16800-17000. Alternatively, if Nifty’s support holds at 17150, then expect the benchmark to rocket to the moon with targets at 17575 and then 17800.

Resistance: 17500, 17700, 17900

Support: 17100, 16800, 16600

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 4 AUGUST 2022

04-Aug-22

Adani Enterprises Ltd

Balkrishna Industries Ltd

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd

BEML Ltd

Berger Paints India Ltd

Dabur India Ltd

GAIL (India) Ltd

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd

LIC Housing Finance Ltd

Manappuram Finance Ltd

The Nifty continued to climb along with the day's expanding upper Bollinger Band. After hovering near the 61.8% retracement of the entire Oct 2021-June 2022 decline (i.e. near 17300) for the past few sessions, the index is stretching to the upside. It is slightly off its eventual target of 17500, which is a 78.6% retracement of the April-June decline. The market ended the highly volatile session on August 3rd with Nifty up 17400. At the close, the Sensex was up 214 points to 58350 and the Nifty was up 42 points to 17388. Bulls and bears lashed out in a volatile, charged session, but eventually the former kept up their winning streak on Dalal Street by buying IT and select financials. Although FII buying into local stocks has resumed after a 3 month hiatus, traders are taking a stock specific approach ahead of RBI's rate decision on Friday. Amid the geopolitical storm affecting global markets, domestic markets moved in line with their global peers. The global market is also concerned about the risk of a recession. On the domestic front, the main trigger this week will be the outcome of the RBI policy meeting, where the market is largely expecting a 25-50 basis point rate hike. 

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 3 AUGUST 2022

Global indicators did not favor bulls as most Asian and western markets traded on concerns over rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China. In addition, economic data point to a drop in demand, and important markets around the world are reacting to fears of a recession. However, the domestic market has proved resilient thanks to increased demand for heavyweights and a strengthening of the Indian rupee, supported by falling US Treasury yields and FII buying. The Sensex closed 21 points higher at 58135. The 30-day stock indicator fell nearly 400 points to an intraday low of 57,744 before erasing losses. The Nifty gained 5 points to 17345. On the technical front, Nifty has formed a doji candle of sorts on a daily chart, indicating indecisiveness between buyers and sellers. Nifty has met resistance from the horizontal line i. e. The 17450 levels crossing above are very important for further rally. Momentum indicators MACD and Stochastic traded with a positive crossover on a daily timeframe, suggesting strength in the meter. Support for Nifty has shifted around the 17200 level while 17,400 on the upside could act as an immediate barrier. On the other hand, Bank sent support at 37800 while resistance stands at 38700. Overall bullish momentum is intact as cunningly holds the 17,000 level, a breach of 17,500 may indicate further up rally on the meter.

Resistance: 17400, 17500, 17600

Support: 17300, 17200, 17100

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 2 AUGUST 2022

Markets started the week on a positive note, continuing last week's trend, and ended with gains of almost a percent. Supportive global cues, as well as healthy buying across sectors, saw the benchmark gradually rise throughout the day. The Nifty ended with strong gains of 17,340 levels, up 1.06%. Strong global cues and upbeat vehicle sales numbers from select front-line automakers fueled another round of rallies in domestic stocks. The hangover from the US interest rate decision is now behind us and the focus is now on the RBI policy meeting later this week, where traders are anticipating the rate hike may come in line with expectations. Indian equity benchmark indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive day on August 1, with Nifty closing above 17,300 on the first day of the new series. To finish, the Sensex was up 545 points, to 58115 and the Nifty was up 181 points to 17350. . the return of FII inflows into local equity markets has also brought back some cheer among investors. Currently, the Nifty is trading comfortably above the 200-day SMA and is still holding higher highs and higher lows on intraday charts.   However, with the market temporarily in an overbought state, we could see a quick intraday correction in the near term. For traders, 17,250 would act as a key support level, above which the index could rally towards 17,450-17,500. On the upside, a quick intraday correction below 17250 is possible, below which the index would retest the 17150-17100 level. The Nifty continued its winning streak from last week. Although the hourly momentum indicator has developed negative divergence, the price action itself remains resilient. On July 29th, the Nifty had risen above the 61.8% retracement of the April-June decline and the 200 DMA. It is now trading near the 61.8% retracement of the entire Oct. 21-June 22 decline, i.e. 17150 with reversal of bullish stance at 17000. The uptrend in the market continues as the bull invasion continues in the 17200-17500 zone. The trend is likely to remain positive as long as the reference index holds above 200 DMA and is placed at 17000. This week markets will continue to be guided by ongoing gains as well as global peers. Also, RBI's monetary policy outcome scheduled for August 5 will be crucial for market participants. We would advise investors to focus on maintaining a stock-specific approach. 17200 should act as crucial support in the near term; while on the upper end 17500 can act as a crucial resistance. Above 17500, the Nifty could rally back towards 17800-18000

Resistance: 17400, 17600, 17800

Support: 17200, 17000, 16800