NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 21 OCTOBER 2022

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Markets continued to consolidate on the weekly expiry day and closed marginally higher. Weak global cues prompted a gap-down start in the Nifty, but buying in IT, energy and banking majors not only pared losses but also pushed the index green. The Indian market ended Thursday, October 20th's volatile session on a positive note. At the close, the Sensex was up 95 points to 59202 and the Nifty was up 51 points to 17564. The surge in US yield, global market weakness and the unexpected drop in INR fueled selling pressures in the domestic market. Global investors are expecting the Fed to remain aggressive, raising rates by 75 basis points in the next two meetings, taking the benchmark rate to 4.50% to 4.75% by the end of the year. Markets are digesting recent gains but the tone is still positive thanks to palpable buying interest at each dip. However, we saw limited participation across all sectors, so the focus should remain on stock selection. Needless to say, further recovery in global indices, particularly the US, would reinforce the trend and help the Nifty gradually move towards the 17,800 level. On the technical front, the Nifty traded with the support of 21HMA and given the close above it suggests a strong bullish move. On the call side, the top was observed at 17800, while the put side was at 17400. The hourly momentum indicator STOACHSTIC traded with a positive crossover, suggesting a downside momentum in the upcoming session. Support for Nifty has shifted around the 17350 level while 17600 could act as an immediate hurdle on the upside. On the upside, Bank Nifty has support at 39300 while resistance lies at 40500. Overall, Nifty managed to close above 17500, any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities.

Resistance: 17600, 17700, 17800

Support: 17500, 17400, 17300

 

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Domestic equity benchmarks ended Wednesday with modest gains, extending gains into the fourth trading session. Oil & Gas, FMCG and Financial Services stocks gained while IT, Metals and PSU Banking stocks fell. The Nifty opened higher, hitting the daily high of 17607 in morning trade. It slipped briefly into negative territory, hitting the daily low of 17472 in late trade. According to the preliminary closing data, the Sensex barometer index rose 146 points to 59,107. The Nifty rose 25 points to 17,512. Over four consecutive sessions, the Sensex is up 3.27% while the Nifty is up 2.93%. Markets closed marginally higher in a volatile session, taking a breather after the recent recovery. After the initial surge, Nifty saw a gradual decline as participants preferred to book some profits from the table and it eventually settled at 17512. Most sectors traded in line with the move, ending flat to marginally in the green. The broader indices also showed a similar trend. Signs point to some consolidation in Nifty and it would be healthy. Meanwhile, the performance of global indices, particularly the US, will remain on the radar. With all sectors contributing to this move, the focus should be more on stock selection while keeping an eye on the prevailing earnings season.

Nifty traded in the 50 to 61.8% range of the Fibonacci constraint; A precise close above 17550 would be important for the next rally and if 17450 is broken then 17300 would act as strong support for the coming days. Open Interest (OI) data shows that on the call side, the highest OI was observed at 17700 strikes, while on the put side, the highest OI was 17300 followed by 17200 strikes. On the upside, Bank Nifty has support at 39900 while resistance is placed at 40900. A significant amount of call writing was also observed in the Bank Nifty Index at 41100. The India VIX is not showing widespread concern as long as it stays below 20. Over the years, the Indian market has outperformed global markets, supporting the idea that foreign investors cannot afford to ignore them if they want world-best returns from India.

 Resistance: 17350, 17450, 17550

Support: 17250, 17150, 17050 

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Benchmark indices are up a percentage today, mainly led by PSU banks, as the recovery in the corporate credit cycle and consumer credit provided some much-needed tailwinds over the holiday season Trading as several PSU stocks, led by the defense sector across sectors, fell on rising volumes were in high demand. The upswing in global markets triggered a gap-up start at Nifty, which continued to intensify as index majors rose across sectors. It eventually settled at 17486. The Indian benchmark indexes ended positive for the third straight day on October 18 with Nifty touching nearly 17,500. To finish, the Sensex was up 549 points, to 58960 and the Nifty was up 175 points, to 17487. It is also worth noting that the RBI's confidence that headline inflation peaked in September and will decline from then on is being welcomed by financial markets and giving banks a boost. All sectors contributed to this move, with banks, energy, autos and FMCG among the top performers. The broader indices also traded in sync with the move, each gaining nearly 1 percent. When a gap opened on October 18, the Nifty surpassed several swing highs on the daily chart. After the positive start, the index tried to scale above 17500 but failed to break through on the closing basis. Regarding the Fibonacci retracement, a 61.8% retracement of the entire fall in September, i.e. 17580, will keep the current upleg in check. The Indian market maintains gains on favorable global and domestic cues. A homegrown positive is the downtrend in crude oil prices and the upside outlook for second quarter corporate earnings. Much of the recent recovery in markets can be attributed to the rebound in global indices, while gains have so far been mixed. Importantly, after two weeks of consolidation, Nifty has breached the 17,400 hurdle and we now expect a gradual recovery into the 17,600+ zone.  Global markets aside, we believe participation by key sectors on a rotating basis would be crucial for continued upside. For all the positivity, traders should focus on overnight risk management. The 17500-17600 zone includes several technical parameters that are expected to attract a fresh round of selling. If this zone is not exceeded, the Nifty can slide back down. If it fails to hold this level, the index will fall back to 17300-17200 in the coming sessions.

 Resistance: 17350, 17450, 17550

Support: 17250, 17150, 17050 

OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 17 OCTOBER 2022

Nifty rose for the second straight month on October 17. Volumes on the NSE were on the down side. Among sectors, energy and banking indices rose the most, while metals and housing indices fell the most. Broad markets continued to underperform, with small-cap and mid-cap indices up less than the Nifty and the advance decline ratio closing at 0.83:1. Benchmark stock indices on the BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) extended gains for a second straight session, closing over 0.7% higher on Monday, led by market heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) and bank stocks amid bullishness Signals in the global market. The Sensex rose 491 points to end at 58410 while the Nifty rose 126 points to settle at 17,311. Both indices had opened on a flat note earlier in the day but slipped into the red during early trade. However, they soon recouped their early losses and turned to late morning trades and traded positively for the remainder of the session. Markets have made several attempts to move higher in the recent past, but a lack of sustainability on the global front has thwarted all attempts. We therefore recommend waiting for further clarity and restricting positions until then. The banking and financial package looks strongest to us, while others show a mixed trend. Participants should adjust their positions accordingly. Nifty continues to show slight strength and next resistance may come at 17350-17430 band while support may come at 17150-17200 band.

 Resistance: 17350, 17450, 17550

Support: 17250, 17150, 17050 

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17250, 17350, 17450

PIVOT POINT: 17150

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17050, 16950, 16850

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Certainly spoiled global sentiments and hence, Nifty Monday 10 oct 2022 morning indicated a gap down opening with more than 200 points cut. In line with this, Nifty opened below 17100 and then tested the 17050 mark. Fortunately, bulls cushioned this fall and managed to pull the index during the remaining part of the session. Eventually, we managed to restrict losses to merely four tenths of a percent to conclude the session comfortably above 17200. We started the Tuesday 11 oct 2022 session on a flat note and since global markets were trading on a weak note, we slipped inside the negative territory within few minutes of trade. Thereafter, key indices consolidated in a range with lot of stock specific action visible on both sides. However, as we stepped into final hour of the session, the selling augmented to even sneak below the 17000 mark. Eventually, Nifty concluded the session with one and half a percent cut. Our markets started the Wednesday 12 oct 2022 session on a positive note and thereafter the price action depicted a classical structure of higher highs and higher lows during the session. The benchmark index dipped a bit in the initial trade which got bought into to continue the rise till the midsession. We again saw some profit booking as we stepped into the latter half. The decline was successfully absorbed by the bulls to conclude the session at the highest point of the day tad above the 17100 mark. The cues from the US bourses on 13 oct 2022 Thursday morning were neutral to slightly on the positive side. Despite this, our markets had a weak opening and as the day progressed, we kept on shrinking like a slow poison. Fortunately, we witnessed some buying interest at lower levels and saw some recovery as we stepped into the last hour of the trade. With some wild swings at the end, Nifty concluded the session with over six tenths of a percent loss. With Inflation becoming the most widely watched economic statistic globally, yesterday's inflation print in the US saw extreme volatility there and as expected our markets opened gap up in sync with global cues. IT & Financials buoyed by earnings led the rally before profit taking in Energy stocks wiped off a bit of gains. The broader markets did see buying interest in select stocks on the back of quarterly earnings although the gains were visible only across Large Cap names. Benchmark indices ended on positive note on October 14 with Nifty around 17200 At Close, the Sensex was up 684 points at 57919, and the Nifty was up 171 points at 17185.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 14 OCTOBER 2022

Indian market closed October 13 session on a negative note amid volatility. Markets continued to enjoy a turbulent ride as weak signals from Asia acted as a dampener, although positive European markets helped mitigate the decline. Somber sentiment stemming from global economic uncertainty has accelerated the decline in recent sessions. At the close, the Sensex was down 390 points to 57235 and the Nifty was down 109 points to 17014. Bank stocks bore the brunt of broader pessimism over concerns that a rising interest rate regime could hurt demand for credit. The Nifty is steadily taking support near the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 16975 while facing strong resistance at 17175. A sharp corrective wave is possible if the index trades below 16975 and further decline could slip to 16900-16800. The Banknifty saw some selling pressure at the top end and faces strong resistance around the 39400-39900 level where aggressive call writing has been observed. The banknifty remains in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows intact. If the index breaks below 38500 on a closing basis, it will result in another sell-off towards 38,600-38200. Immediate upside resistance stands at 39500 and if it breaks there will be some short covering moves.

Resistance: 17100, 17200, 17300

Support: 17000, 16900, 16800

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 13 OCTOBER 2022

The bears took a breather today as markets staged a recovery rally after coming under pressure for the past few sessions. However, the recovery does not appear to be sustainable as several negative factors are at play. . Sensex and Nifty 50 closed nearly a percent higher on Wednesday, October 12, 2022, a day ahead of the weekly F&O expiration. BSE Sensex closed 479 points higher at 57626 while Nifty settled 140 points higher at 17124. Bank Nifty is up more than 1% to settle at 39119. India VIX, the volatility index, fell 1.5 to 20.18. The domestic market managed to weather the weak signals from global peers as it focused on quarterly earnings. The IT earnings season got off to a strong start, boosting industry sentiment. European markets continued to fall amid escalating geopolitical turmoil and the prospect of a global economic slowdown as the IMF downgraded its forecast for global growth. At the same time, oil prices fell on sluggish demand amid recession fears and tightening restrictions in China, which was positively received by the domestic market. Globally, Asian markets were broadly negative after a recent streak of losses on worries about the slowing global economy and the impact of rising interest rates on corporate earnings. European markets were generally lower as recession fears persisted, with US President Joe Biden acknowledging in an interview on Tuesday that a very mild recession was likely.

Technically, the Nifty took support near the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and rallied strongly. As long as the index trades above the 17100 level, the pullback pattern is likely to continue. Above that, the index can reach the 17200-17250 level. On the otherside, the index could slip below 17050 -16950. On the technical front, immediate support and resistance at Nifty 50 are 17,000 and 17,300 respectively. For Banknifty immediate support and resistance stands at 38800 and 39600 respectively. OI data shows that on the call side, the highest OI was observed at 17400-17500 followed by 17,300 strike prices, while on the put side, the highest OI was at 17000 lay, followed by 16900 exercise prices. Technically, Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart as it closed above 17100, a key Fibonacci level. The overall structure shows that the index is likely to see consolidation and short-term buying in the 17,000-17,300 range. Once it holds 17,340 levels, we can expect a rally up to 17,500 levels in the coming days. Indicators like the RSI and MACD are showing some strength to lead higher on the daily chart. On the other hand, Bank Nifty has support at 38500 while resistance lies at 40000.

Resistance: 17150, 17250, 17350

Support: 17050, 16950, 16850

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The markets remained under pressure and lost almost one and a half percent in the prevailing correction phase. Pressure in the IT package coupled with a decline in index majors across sectors weighed on sentiment. In line with the move, the broader indices also declined, losing almost 2% each. Benchmark indices fell sharply in the last hour, shedding 1.5% after staying in the flat to red territory for most of the session. Sensex plummeted nearly 850 points to close at 57147 points. Nifty lost about 250 points and finished under 17000 at 16983. 

Nifty saw some selling pressure in the second half of the session. On the daily chart, the index slipped below the psychological 17000 mark. Also, the Nifty dipped below 200DMA briefly before closing slightly higher. Trend looks weak, a drop below 16975 could trigger selling pressure in the market with potential to drop towards 16,800. On the upper end, resistance is seen at 17050. Technically, after a muted open, the index corrected sharply and broke the key support level at 17100. A long bearish candle on daily charts and lower high formation on intraday charts indicate further weakness from current levels. The corrective wave will likely last until 16900-16800. On the upside, 17100 would be the key intraday resistance zone, above which a slight pullback rally to 17075-17150 is possible. With no recovery on the global front, any disappointment on earnings or the macro front could add further pressure. On the index front, we are now eyeing 16800-16500 at Nifty and its decisive break would reverse the recovery trend. Traders should adjust their positions accordingly.

Resistance: 17100, 17200, 17300

Support: 16900, 16800, 16700

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Due to the lack of positive strength in global markets and ongoing worries of further rate hikes by major central banks, investors are risk-averse and steadily reducing holdings. Caution along with weak market sentiment will prevail as all eyes will be on the US FOMC minutes released on Wednesday which will provide some clues on the Fed's rate decision going forward. Benchmark indices ended negative in the highly volatile October 10th session. At the close, the Sensex was down 200 points, to 57,991 and the Nifty was down 73 points to 17241. Fears of an aggressive Fed rate hike amid strong US employment data disrupted global equity trends. Given the low supply and high demand scenarios, US inflation is expected to remain high. In order to achieve some parity in the economy, the Fed must aim to reduce demand by raising the unemployment rate, which the market ignores. In addition, rising crude oil prices and devaluation of the rupee increase the risk of imported inflation in India affecting the domestic market. Markets are showing tremendous resilience given the weak global environment, however, traders are facing difficult times due to moderate volatility. And now that earnings season has begun, we expect volatility to remain high. Technically, the Nifty found support at 17100 and rallied strongly. On daily charts, the index has formed a bullish candle and also a reversal pattern that is largely positive. For traders, support has shifted to 17250 from 17100. Above 17100 , the index could retest the 17300-17400 level. On the other hand, a new round of selling is only possible after 17100 is eliminated. Below that, the index could slip as low as 17000-16800.

Resistance: 17400, 17550, 17700

Support: 17300, 17150, 17000 

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17500, 17700, 17900

PIVOT POINT: 17300

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17200, 17000, 16800

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Despite SGX NIFTY heralding a sluggish start, our markets opened with marginal gains on Monday 3 October, completely ignoring the global cues. However, with global developments being somewhat unfavorable over the past weekend, we were unable to capitalize on this promising start as things needed to reach an equilibrium and therefore we saw sustained selling throughout the session. Fortunately, the bulls staged a notable comeback the next day, retaking the 17200 level. In the second half, although we tested 17400 after a 1 day break, the market saw some sluggishness to end the week above 17300 as bulls managed to shed over 1% weekly. The Nifty50 remained volatile throughout the Friday’s session and finally ended above 17,300 with moderate losses on October 7 (Friday), after an uptrend in the previous two trading sessions. The Nifty50 opened lower at 17,287, and remained in a range of about 100 points before ending the session at 17,315 with 17 points losses.

NIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

Although Monday's session was a bit intimidating, the configuration remained intact and it certainly held up over the course of the week. Now that Nifty has managed to surpass 17200 and hold its position above it, 17200 17000 is now becoming a sacred zone for our market. In addition, we can now observe another technical indicator; i.e. a positive crossover in the daily RSI smoothened is likely to help the bulls. If the global market supports, we as the stronger market are likely to continue the upward direction. In terms of levels, 17400 – 17500 – 17650 can be seen as immediate hurdles for our leading index. We advise traders to remain confident and given the ranking of the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 Index it is better to continue to focus on stock-specific moves.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

NIFTY SPOT.

Nifty Spot closed this week at 17314 versus a close of 17094 last week. The put-call ratio is down from 1.22 to 0.97. The annualized cost of carry is positive at 1.50%. Nifty futures open interest rose 4.11%.

NIFTY DERIVATIVE VIEW.

Derivatives View Nifty closed the current month futures at a premium of 14.20 versus an 8.85 point premium to its spot last week. Next month futures are trading at a premium of 59.15 points. The Indian stock market staged a strong recovery and finally we saw a positive close after falling for the past two consecutive weeks. In the F&O space, a new long construction in Nifty and a short covering in the Banking index was observed. In the recent pullback, put writers added decent positions in 17000-17200 strikes. On Friday, we observed a large volume of call options being written from 17,500, causing the PCR-OI to fall below 1. Stronger hands covered some shorts and added bullish bets in the index futures segment; hence the long short ratio had improved slightly from 16% to 20% WoW. Considering the data points above, we believe that 17000-17200 will now act as a strong support zone and any dips around this zone will be an opportunity to add new longs in the system. On the upside, around 17500 is the immediate hurdle.

NIFTY50 OUTLOOK

The index has seen the formation of a small bodied bullish candlestick on the daily charts, while on the weekly chart there has been a decent bullish candlestick pattern formation following the hammer pattern on the previous week's downtrend, potentially confirming the uptrend's progress ahead. It was up 1.3 percent on the week and suffered three-week losses. The 50-period NSE benchmark was holding 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA - 17,270, 17,100 and 17,200, respectively), suggesting the trend may remain in favor of the bulls. So as long as it holds 17,400 or 50 DEMA, the move towards 17,500 -17,800 seems possible in the coming sessions, with crucial support at the 17,000 level. Nifty's underlying uptrend remains intact. The consolidation move could continue early next week and the market could eventually see a strong move higher off the lows into next week. A decisive upside break above the 17,450 hurdle is likely to pull Nifty towards another key resistance at 18,000-18,100. Immediate support is placed at 17,200 levels. The India VIX volatility index fell 2.6 percent to 18.81 levels, providing good support to the market. So, if volatility continues to cool, further stability cannot be ruled out in the coming sessions.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 10 OCTOBER 2022

Markets paused after the recent rebound and ended almost flat as there was no major trigger. After a flat start, the Nifty Index traded in a tight range and eventually settled closer to the daily high to close at 17314. Most sector indices traded in sync with the benchmark and ended flat. Meanwhile, stock-specific moves across sectors kept participants busy. Markets ended the choppy session uninspiring as caution was warranted given the lack of clarity on the Fed's prospects for a rate hike. As widely expected, the benchmark consolidated gains ahead of the US jobs report. The benchmark Nifty remained volatile before closing on a muted note. However, the index closed above the 50 EMA, confirming the ongoing positive trend. To close, the Sensex was up 30 points at 58191 and the Nifty was up 17 points at 17314. Global markets, particularly the US, are still showing no sign of a sustained recovery so volatility will persist and participants should plan their overnight positions accordingly. Meanwhile, the tone on the index front would remain positive until the Nifty holds 17250. In our view, the prudent approach is to focus on best-performing stocks across sectors and use interim declines to add to them, rather than chasing laggards in hopes of a recovery. Looking ahead, the trend is expected to remain positive as long as the Nifty holds above 17300. On the upper end, the 17500-17600 zone can act as resistance, while on the lower end, 17250 support is visible. Bank Nifty remained volatile throughout the day. However, the index has managed to hold above the 50 EMA on the daily chart. The RSI is entering a bullish crossover. In the short term, the index could move towards 40000. Support at 38700 is visible on the lower end.

Resistance: 17400, 17550, 17700

Support: 17300, 17150, 17000 

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Weakness in European market and Nifty’ slide into the red prompted investors to trim their bullish bets. But Indian market still ended in the green, thanks to traders betting heavily on IT, metals and real estate stocks. However, global inflation concerns and continued central bank rate hikes have unsettled markets and kept investors on edge amid fears of a global slowdown. The Nifty started to open and remained volatile throughout the day. Indian benchmark indices ended the volatile session on positive terms with Nifty above 17,300. Finally, the Sensex rose 156 points to 58,222 and the Nifty rose 57 points to 17,331. On daily charts, the Nifty has formed a small bearish candle, indicating temporary weakness. However, the medium-term sentiment is still bullish. Fresh uptrend is possible only after breakout of 17400 and above that index might reach 17450-17500 levels. On the otherside, the index could slip below 17300 to 17250-17200.

Resistance: 17400, 17550, 17700

Support: 17300, 17150, 17000 

NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 6 OCTOBER 2022

On this auspicious occasion of Dussehra, let’s celebrate the triumph of good over evil, bravery, and courage, and May all your sorrows go away today, and may your spirit rise in your heart that will lead you successfully through all your achievements. 

🙏🙏🙏Happy Dussehra!!! 🙏🙏🙏

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The domestic market reflected a robust overnight Wall Street surge and upbeat domestic business data released by banks, ending the day on a cheerful note. Markets rebounded strongly from Monday's plunge, gaining over 2%, following firm global cues. The Nifty index opened a gap to the upside and gradually rose over the session, finally settling around the daily high to close above 17200. All industry indices participated in the move, with metal, banks and IT among the top gainers. Broader indices also saw decent traction, gaining in the 1.7% to 2.5% range. Finally, the Sensex rose 1276 points to 58065 and the Nifty rose 387 points to 17274.An unexpected slowdown in the US manufacturing purchasing managers' index raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of monetary tightening. As a result, US bond yields fell in line with the US dollar. Markets are currently dancing to the global tunes and the recovery in US markets has sparked this recovery. Going forward, Nifty should hold 17225 to maintain the positive bias and move towards above 17300 zone. We reiterate our view to focus more on stock selection and risk management, noting the excessive volatility.  Nifty has moved higher on the daily chart after consolidating, indicating a rise in optimism among market participants. The index positioned above 200DMA which is a bullish setup. The momentum indicator has entered a bullish crossover. The short-term trend looks positive. A decisive move above 17250 could trigger a strong rally in the market. On the lower end, support lies at 17050 ; Upper end resistance is seen at 17400/17500. Technically, the index rebounded sharply after a sharp intraday correction. on 4 oct 2022 after opening the gap, it held the 17200/57500 level and managed to close above it. A higher bottom formation was also formed on intraday charts, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend in the near future. Short term market structure is positive but due to temporary overbought we could see range bound activity in the near term. For traders now, 17225-17200 /57,800-57,600 would be the key support zone, while 17350-17450/58,300-58,400 would act as the key resistance zone for the index. Buying on an intraday correction and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Resistance: 17300, 17400, 17500

Support: 17200, 17100, 17000

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Markets started the week on a weak note, losing over a percent, following weak global signals. After starting flat, the Nifty gradually fell lower over the course of the session, leveling off around the daily low to close at 16,887. After a smart rebound in the previous session (Friday), the market came under renewed selling pressure on Monday 3rd October. Indian benchmark indices closed negative with the Nifty closing below 16900 amid weak global hints and selling in all sectors except pharma. At the close, the Sensex was up 638 points at 56788 and the Nifty was up 207 points at 16887. Global markets are expected to remain under pressure due to the combination of an unfavorable economic outlook and investors' risk aversion. Global markets suffered from the projected slowdown in economic data as indicated by high-frequency indicators in European regions such as India's manufacturing PMI edged down to 55.1 in September as demand slowed. As a result, all key sectors except pharmaceutical and oil stocks came under selling pressure. 

Nifty closed the day as per the inner day pattern. The inside day pattern is generally considered to be a trend continuation pattern. Today's internal daily pattern position is below the previous swing low at 17200. The daily candle was also a red candle to close at the bottom of the range. Configuration is down as the overall trend on Nifty is down. Nifty also traded and closed below the Fib retracement at 16950. MACD is in a sell mode and prices are trading below key supports. Expect the Nifty to trade to 16800 and below to 16500 over the next few trading sessions. Volatility is high and the current boost should be used as a selling opportunity by traders. Bank Nifty is in bearish mode for short-term traders. It is currently at the support of a rising trend line. For the day, BNF has created an inner daily pattern. Inside days are typically short-term trend continuation patterns. Therefore, we can expect BNF to trade lower towards 37000-36800 in the next few days. Trend following indicators are showing bearishness in the market and we could see selling intensify over the next few days. In the next few days, the index is likely to drop below 36500 and more declines could be imminent. On the upside, the main resistance stands at 38500 , and for further upside, banknifty has taken out 37000. The index is currently declining.

Resistance: 17000, 17250, 17500

Support: 16800, 16750, 16500

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17000, 17200, 17500

PIVOT POINT: 16900

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  16700, 16500, 16300

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

Our market tumbled over the rising concerns of weakening INR and the ongoing global correction. At the very start of the week on 26 September 2022, the key indices tested the crucial support levels, implying the spread of timidity in the overall market space. The benchmark index Nifty50 witnessed a gap down opening that further aggravated and dragged it below the psychological mark of 17000. However, post the hustles in yesterday’s session, the index managed to settle the day a tad above 17000 levels, with a cut of 1.80%. On 27 September the Indian equity market started the day on a mild note amid mixed global cues, wherein the benchmark index seemed a bit nervous from the early trades and slipped into the negative terrain. However, the dip augured well for the bulls, and they made a modest recovery by the mid-session. But by the fag end, the correction triggered again resulting in a tentative closure with a mere loss of 0.05% and settled a tad above the 17000 mark. The weakness in the Asian market led to a gap down opening for Indian equities on 28 September. The benchmark index tumbled nearly 150 points at the opening bell, setting a bleak start. Though the buying was quite relevant at the lower levels, that gradually pulled the indices upwards by the mid-session. However, the bulls could not cope up at the higher grounds, and the index tumbled to the day’s low by the end of the session. With all the hustles, the benchmark index concluded the sixth consecutive day in red with a cut of 0.87%. Our market has seen an optimistic start with a decent gap up on 29 September 2022, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50 tested the 17000 mark at the opening bell. But soon after, a sell-off got triggered that gradually dragged the index below Wednesday’s low, signifying the strength of the bears at higher grounds. With the intense day of sell-off, Nifty continued the selling streak for the seventh day in a row and settled a tad above the 16800 level with another cut of 0.24%. on Friday 30 September 2022 RBI in its policy meeting raised its benchmark repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% which was in-line with market expectation. Since May’22 RBI has raised interest rate by 190bps and expect repo rate to be raised to 6.5% in this cycle. It expect inflation to come down close to its target of ~4% over a two-year period and projected real GDP for FY23 at 7%. Post RBI’s commentary, Nifty bounced in green and gained strength throughout the session. The rally was especially seen in banking sector stocks. This has also given some support to falling rupee which had depreciated by 7% since April’22.  With most key events now behind, market finally found some strength on Friday. After 7 consecutive falls, Nifty witnessed strong rally and closed with gains of almost 300 points. It also reclaimed the 17,000 zones, making the short term technical view positive. Indian benchmark indices ended sharply higher on September 30 with Nifty closing above 17,000 after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced repo rate hike by 50 bps. At Close, the Sensex was up 1016 points at 57426, and the Nifty was up 276 points at 17094.

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

For the trend following traders the 200- day SMA (Simple moving Average) and 16900 would act as a sacrosanct support zone. Above the same, the reversal wave is likely to continue till 17250. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index till 17400. On the flip side, below 16900, uptrend would be vulnerable and on further decline the index could slip till 16800-16700.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

With most key events now behind, market finally found some strength on Friday. After 7 consecutive fall, Nifty witnessed strong rally and closed with gains of almost 300 points. It also reclaimed the 17050 zones, making the short term technical view positive. Nifty can now move towards 17400-17700 zones with key support around 17000 and 16800. Auto and consumption sectors would be in focus ahead of monthly sales data and high demand in the ongoing Navaratri festival. Pharma sector is seeing some value buying as market focused on defensive names in times of global uncertainty. However, global macro factors will continue to dictate the domestic market sentiment going ahead as any fresh spell of negative news could once again trigger the downward spiral. Technically, after a sharp selloff the Nifty took support near 16800 and bounced back sharply. On daily charts, the index has formed a long bullish candle, and also formed a promising Hammer candlestick formation on weekly charts which is broadly positive. For the trend following traders the 200- day SMA (Simple moving Average) and 16800 would act as a sacrosanct support zone. Above the same, the reversal wave is likely to continue till 17500. Further upside may also continue which could lift the index till 17700. On the flip side, below 16600, uptrend would be vulnerable and on further decline the index could slip till 16400-16000. Nifty snapped its losing streak as the index posted a gain after seven consecutive days of correction. On the lower end, it found support at 16800 and moved up. On the daily chart, the index has formed a bullish engulfing pattern. The daily RSI is seen to be entering the bullish crossover. Going forward, the trend may remain bullish with an upside potential of 17300/17500. On the lower end, 16800/16600 may continue to act as crucial support for the short term.

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Skilled bulls failed to find traction amid the volatility and ended negatively. Markets were unable to hold onto their early morning gains as the street remained primarily concerned about how much the RBI will tighten at its monetary policy meeting and raise interest rates to fight inflation for the remainder of the year. The negative close could also be attributed to Dow futures and European stocks, which resumed the sell-off. The market was extremely volatile on the F&O expiry date and traders chose to trim their positions in some interest rate sensitive names ahead of the credit policy announcement on 30 september 2022.  Benchmark indices ended slightly lower today, with the Nifty 50 down -0.24% and Sensex down -0.33%. The index failed to capitalize on the early gain as it faced stiff resistance at 17000 which led to a close around 16800. At the close, Sensex was down 188 points to 56409 and the Nifty was down 40 points to 16818.  Technically, Nifty’s support can now only be seen in the 16500-16300 zone. As long as 16300 support holds, there is a good chance the index could bounce to 16900-17000 and then 17200 level. Technically, the benchmark Nifty failed to sustain above the 200-day SMA (simple moving average) or 16900 despite a solid start. In the intraday timeframe, the index has formed a double top formation and inverse, it is constantly taking support at 16800. As long as the index is trading above 16800, there are good chances for a quick pullback rally. Additionally, the index could retest the 16900-17200 levels. Below 16800, however, the index could slip to 16700-16500 in intraday.

Resistance: 17400, 17550, 17700

Support: 17300, 17150, 17000 

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The market fell sharply on Wednesday, extending losses for a sixth straight trading day amid weakness in global markets as concerns persisted over aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed and its impact on economic growth. Investors awaited the outcome of a key RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting due this week for domestic guidance. Domestic stock market benchmarks the Sensex and Nifty ended 1% lower on Wednesday, a day ahead of weekly and monthly F&O. Sensex fell 509 points, or almost 1%, to 56,598, while Nifty fell 0.9%, or 149 points, to settle at 16858. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting body began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of another 50 basis point rate hike to curb high inflation. Based on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recommendations, the RBI raised the repo rate by 50 basis points in June and August, after raising the short-term lending rate by 40 basis points in May in an off-cycle decision. The MPC, led by RBI Gov. Shakkanta Das, is scheduled to meet September 28-30. The result will be announced on September 30th. The central bank, which has hiked the repo rate by 140 basis points (bps) since May, may opt for another 50 bps hike, taking the policy rate to 3 percent. Year high of 5.9%. The current rate is 5.4%. The consumer price index (CPI), based on retail inflation, which showed signs of slowing down in May, has strengthened again in August at 7%. The RBI takes retail inflation into account when framing its bi-monthly monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve made the third straight rate hike after raising rates by 75 basis points to bring the target range to 3-3.25%. The UK and EU central banks have also raised interest rates to tame inflation. In a report, the Bank of Baroda said monetary policy would be watched more closely this time amid recent developments in the FX market following last week's Fed rate hike. The RBI view on all topics will provide guidance to the market on repo rate, attitude, growth and inflation forecasts, rupee, liquidity and global view. Markets remained choppy with a strong bearish bias as investors exited banking and metals stocks ahead of the monthly F&O expiry, with the likely rate hike by the RBI and other central banks suggesting bearish sentiment could continue. Technically, we think 16900 would act as the immediate resistance level. Below that, the corrective wave is likely to continue to 16800-16600. On the upside, a short recovery rally is only possible after the break from 16950. Above that, the index could rise to 17000-17200. The Nifty has major support between 16700-16500 (which is a key retracement support level). Buying index heavyweight stocks is prudent if Nifty falls to 16500.

Resistance: 17400, 17550, 17700

Support: 17300, 17150, 17000 

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 Technically, after a sharp fall, the index opened in the green but corrected sharply. After an early morning selloff, the index witnessed range-bound activity. Global markets remained on edge and were mixed Tuesday as investors braced for a heightened risk of global recession, even as dip buyers emerged. Chinese markets recovered on expectations of more stimulus measures by the government. People’s Bank of China injected about $24.7 billion of liquidity into the sector via repo market operations. Nifty took support from the upgap of 16947 and closed flat after making a lower low compared to the previous day. The Sensex fell 38 points at 57108, while Nifty 50 ended 9 points down at 17007.

Lower top formation intraday charts and a bearish candle on daily charts indicate a continuation of weakness in the near term. However, momentum indicators suggest a strong possibility of a pullback rally from the current levels. We are of the view that the bearish sentiment in the market is still intact and a fresh pullback rally is possible if the index succeeds to trade above the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving average) or 16950/56900. Above which, the index could retest the level of 17100-17150/15400-57600. On the flip side, below 16950/56900, it could slip till 17800-17700/15500-56200. The intraday texture of the market is non-directional, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders.

Resistance: 17400, 17550, 17700

Support: 17300, 17150, 17000 

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Benchmark Indices closed in Red with Nifty 50 closing -1.8% down and Sensex closing -1.64% down today due to negative global macros. It seems that Indian markets are now catching up with global markets which have been soft for a month now. The sell-off which began last Friday continues today with the mid/small cap stocks particularly taking it on the chin. With today’s fall the Nifty return CYTD 2022 has turned negative. The only sector holding out is the IT sector which is in the green due to the tailwind of a depreciating rupee which is at an all-time low of ~Rs.81.50. Investors are cautious on the outlook for equity markets globally due to the increasing assertiveness of global central banks on implementing interest rate hikes to tame rising prices. Thus central banks are likely to priorities inflation control vis a vis economic growth thus raising the risks of a global recession. Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the fourth consecutive session on September 26 with Nifty closing near 17,000 amid selling across the sectors barring IT. At Close, the Sensex was down 953 points at 57145, and the Nifty was down 311 points at 17016. The Indian market takes another step lower, chasing the global nod. Investors remained nervous as the RBI may follow the lead of global counterparts, including the US Federal Reserve, and raise interest rates on Friday to tame stubborn inflation. The speed with which central banks across the globe are hiking interest rates, investors are worried that slackening growth would push key economies into recession. With the monetary policy decisions on the anvil, rate-sensitive stocks like banking, realty & auto crumbled badly as rate hikes could dent demand going ahead.  However, due to markets being in oversold territory, we could witness a quick pullback rally. For traders, the 200-day SMA and 16850 would act as a key support level. On the flip side 17100 and 17200 could be the immediate hurdle for the bulls. In the short-term, markets can remain volatile following the global macroeconomic uncertainty and rising interest rates. Nifty has breached psychological 17000 levels, as 17275-17350 will now act as immediate resistance, whereas support is placed around the 17000 levels. With no respite on the global front and a resumption of selling from foreign investors, we expect markets to remain under pressure and test the 16,850-16,950 zone in Nifty. Select pockets from FMCG, pharma and IT are showing resilience while the majority is reeling under pressure. Participants should align their positions accordingly.

Resistance: 17100, 17300, 17500

Support: 17000, 16800, 16600

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17350, 17550, 17800

PIVOT POINT: 17150

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17050, 16800, 16500

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

On September 19, 2022, the global market's weakness caused Indian equities to open modestly, and the benchmark index nervously began trading. Soon after, the bulls seized the chance and helped the index make a slight comeback. After that, the index made a few little rangebound swings that continued for the rest of the day. The bulls shown their tenacity and stopped the losing trend of the previous three days despite the mediocre session. The Nifty finished the day up 0.52% and landed slightly above the 17600 mark. On September 20, 2022, the favourable global markets gave our stocks reason for confidence as we had a respectable gap up opening followed by widespread buying interest. The benchmark index increased progressively until a correction began at the far end, which reduced some of the market's early gains. Finally, following the intense session, the Nifty ended the day with a gain of 1.10%, just over the 17800 level. On September 21, 2022, the Indian equities market opened moderately amidst conflicting global cues, and the benchmark index appeared a little uneasy in the opening transactions. An violent sell-off that started in the middle of the session saw the index down from the top near the 17660 odd zone. But from the lows, the bulls retaliated and staged a modest rally to reduce some losses. After such a wild session, the Nifty corrected by 0.55% and ended the day just above the 17700 mark. The benchmark index opened the day with a gap down on September 22, 2022, as a result of the weakening in the world's stock markets. The sell-off became worse and pulled the Nifty index towards a value around 17530. The bulls, however, responded from the untouchable support and made a moderate rebound to lessen the losses. Due to the market's commotion, the benchmark index Nifty50 ended the day with a 0.5% loss, just above the 17600 level. The key equity indices, the Sensex and Nifty, declined on September 23, 2022, for the third day in a row. The decline was weighted down by a selloff that affected all industries, with the banking and finance sector leading the way, as the global market continued to deteriorate. The Nifty 50 ended at 17327, down 302 points, and the S&P BSE Sensex down 1,020 points to finish at 58098. Both indices had earlier in the day began roughly 0.2% lower but quickly fell as the trade went on, with the Sensex reaching an intraday low of 57,981 and the broader Nifty at 17291.

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

We allude to our preceding statement available in the marketplace being tentative amid uncertainty within side the international bourses. However, the undertone is predicted to remain upbeat until Nifty sustains above the unfilled hole of 17400-17380 extraordinary zone. Meanwhile, a few tentativeness can be sensed till the unfilled hole of 17820-17860 isn't always taken out. Looking on the technical setup, the marketplace is probable to exchange in the stated variety till a decisive breakout isn't always visible on both aspect within side the similar period.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

A rise in the US 10-year bond yield and a strong dollar index influenced FIIs to flee emerging markets. A fall in liquidity in the banking system, a weak currency and a current premium valuation have set the market outlook bearish for the near term. With aggressive monetary policy action by central banks, the global growth engines are in a slowdown mode, whereas India is currently in a better position with a pickup in credit growth and an uptick in tax collection. The current volatility might persist for a while. Investors are advised to wait and watch until the dust settles. Markets are finally witnessing pressure after showing resilience for quite some time and indications are pointing towards further decline. After remaining resilient against the global weakness in equities, Nifty gave in over the past three sessions. Nifty fell sharply for the second consecutive week (down 1.16%), breaking some key technical levels on the way. 17150 is the next support for the Nifty post which a sharper fall could ensue. 17500 could be the resistance for the Nifty in the near term.The Nifty index has the next crucial support at the 17000 zone. Since most sectors are trading in tandem with the benchmark, it’s prudent to maintain short positions also. Investors, on the other hand, should utilise this phase to accumulate quality stocks in a staggered manner. The Bank Nifty index last week witnessed extreme selling pressure from the higher levels after the key event of the US FED. The index breached the crucial support of 40,000 and closed below it, confirming the breakdown and activating the sell-on-rise mode. The index remains in a sell-on-rise mode with hurdles at 40,500 and the next support is visible at 39,000.