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NIFTY REPORT & OUTLOOK FOR 20 MARCH 2024

Overview:

On March 19, 2024, Indian equity indices experienced a notable decline, with the Nifty closing at 21,817, marking a 1% drop amid widespread selling across various sectors. The Sensex also saw a significant decrease, down by 736 points, settling at 72012. The market sentiment remained bearish throughout the day, with concerns over global economic factors and sector-specific issues contributing to the decline.

Key Highlights:

Market Performance:

1. • The Nifty closed at 21,817, down by 238 points.
   • The Sensex closed at 72012, marking a decline of 736 points.
   • Market breadth remained negative, with 1202 shares advancing, 2458 shares declining, and 112 shares remaining unchanged.

2. Sectoral Performance:

   • All sectoral indices ended the day in the red:
     • Healthcare, IT, FMCG, Capital Goods, oil & gas, power sectors saw declines ranging from 1-2%.
     • BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices shed 1 percent each, moving in tandem with the frontline indices.

3. Top Gainers and Losers:

   • Notable losers on the Nifty included TCS, BPCL, Tata Consumer Products, Tata Consumer, and Nestle India.
   • On the other hand, gainers included Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindalco Industries, and Bharti Airtel.

4. Market Analysis:

Market Summary - March 18, 2024 & Nifty Outlook For 19 March

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Positive Close Amidst Sectoral Buying

The benchmark indices concluded the trading session on a positive note on March 18, managing to offset some losses from the previous session. The Nifty stood at approximately 22,050, reflecting a buoyant sentiment driven by widespread buying across sectors, with exceptions in IT and FMCG.

Index Performance

The Sensex surged by 104 points settling at 72748.

Meanwhile, the Nifty observed a gain of 32 points, closing at 22055.

Top Gainers and Losers

Leading the gainers on the Nifty were Tata Steel, M&M(Predicted by on saturday itself), JSW Steel, Tata Motors, and Apollo Hospitals.

Conversely, the losers included Tata Consumer Products, UPL, Infosys, Adani Ports, and Titan Company.

Sectoral Performance

Sectors such as capital goods, healthcare, auto, realty, metal, and media witnessed gains ranging from 0.5-3%.On the contrary, IT and FMCG sectors experienced marginal declines of 0.5-1.5%.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended the day on a neutral note.

Individual Stock Movement

Notable volume spikes exceeding 100 percent were observed in Coforge, Balrampur Chini Mills, and PI Industries.

Long build-up was noted in Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, and M&M, while short build-up was seen in Coforge, Birlasoft, and Persistent Systems.

Several stocks including Bharti Airtel, Cigniti Technologies, Colgate Palmolive, and others touched their 52-week highs on the BSE.

Technical Analysis and Outlook

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NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 18 MARCH TO 22 MARCH 2024

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Weekly Market Report (March 15 - March 19, 2024)

Overview:

The Indian stock market witnessed a mixed performance during the week ending March 19, 2024. While the benchmark indices struggled to maintain momentum, certain sectors experienced notable volatility. Here are the key highlights from the week:

1. Performance of Benchmark Indices:

The Sensex closed the week at 72643, marking a decline of 453 points.

The Nifty ended the week at 22,023 down by 123 points.

2. Market Breadth:

Among the shares listed, 1724 advanced, 1939 declined, and 113 remained unchanged.

Sectoral indices exhibited mixed performances, with the telecom sector being the only gainer, while others like oil & gas, auto, capital goods, and healthcare faced declines ranging from 1% to 2%.

3. Sectoral Performance:

Notable losers on the Nifty included BPCL, M&M, Tata Motors, Coal India, and L&T.

Gainers on the Nifty comprised Bharti Airtel, UPL, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Life, and Adani Enterprises.

4. Midcap and Smallcap Indices:

The BSE Midcap index witnessed a decline of 0.5%, whereas the Smallcap index ended on a positive note.

5. BankNifty Performance:

The BankNifty index experienced a volatile trading session, forming a doji candle indicating market indecision.

Immediate resistance for the BankNifty index is noted at 47200-47500, coinciding with the 20-day moving average (20DMA).

Lower-end support is positioned at 46800-46200, with bulls attempting to defend this level.

6. Market Sentiment and Outlook:

Cautiousness towards mid & small caps persisted, influencing broader market sentiment.

Despite challenges, factors such as moderation in global commodity prices and an upward revision of India's GDP for FY25 are expected to highlight robust domestic demand.

Bargain opportunities may continue to emerge in mid- and small-cap stocks with strong fundamentals, once broader market stability is achieved.

7. Nifty Technical Analysis:

The Nifty closed below the rising trendline, indicating weakness in market sentiment.

The momentum indicator suggests bearish momentum in the near term.

Immediate support is situated at the 50-day moving average (50DMA), currently at 21800-21600.

Resistance is observed in the range of 22,200-22500.

Conclusion:

The Indian stock market encountered volatility amid mixed performances across sectors. While challenges persist, positive indicators such as domestic demand resilience and bargain opportunities in certain stocks offer optimism for potential rebounds. Continued monitoring of global and domestic factors is advised for informed investment decisions.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the key developments in the Indian stock market during the week ending March 19, 2024, incorporating both fundamental and technical analyses.

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Market Report - March 14, 2024

Overview:

The Indian stock market ended on a positive note on March 14, 2024, erasing some of the previous session's losses. The benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, exhibited a notable recovery throughout the trading session, with Nifty surpassing the 22,200 mark intraday and Sensex comfortably closing above 73,000. The market sentiment was largely optimistic, supported by buying across various sectors.

Key Metrics:

Sensex closed at 73097, marking an increase of 335 points or 0.46%.

Nifty closed at 22146, up by 149 points or 0.68%.

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Market Summary:

The markets witnessed a significant downturn, with Nifty losing approximately 1.5% after a week of trading within a narrow range. The decline was marked by a gradual drift initially, followed by intensified selling pressure, particularly in sectors such as metal, realty, and energy which saw losses exceeding 5%. Broader indices also experienced notable losses, extending prevailing bearish sentiments with declines ranging from 4% to 5%.

Market Performance:

Nifty settled near 21,997 levels, close to the day's low, reflecting a breach of immediate support levels including the short-term moving average (20 DEMA) and trendline support.

Sectors such as metal, realty, and energy exhibited significant losses, while midcap and smallcap segments continued to face downward pressure.

Despite being around 2.3% below its all-time high, there was a sense of distress among retail investors, emphasizing the risk associated with chasing momentum and speculative stocks rather than adopting a balanced portfolio approach.

Indian Benchmark Indices Close Mixed Amid Volatility

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Market Report: March 12, 2024

In a volatile trading session on March 12, the Indian benchmark indices ended on a mixed note. The BSE Sensex rose 165.32 points or 0.22 percent to 73,667.96, while the Nifty gained three points or 0.01 percent to 22,335.70.

Market Highlights:

Investors were attentive to the release of US inflation data for indications on the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut cycle.

Market started flat to positive and extended gains throughout the day but saw profit booking later, with selling across sectors except Information Technology.

Top gainers on the Nifty included HDFC Bank, TCS, LTIMindtree, Maruti Suzuki, and Infosys, while losers were Adani Enterprises, Cipla, Grasim Industries, Adani Ports, and SBI.

Except for IT, all other sectors ended in the red. Realty index was down nearly 3.5 percent, PSU Bank and Media indices down two percent each, while capital goods, FMCG, healthcare, metal, and power indices fell one percent each.

BSE Midcap index was down 1.3 percent, and Smallcap index shed two percent.

Stock Movement:

Volume spike of more than 200 percent was seen in Aditya Birla Capital, Indiamart Intermesh, Oracle Financial Services Software.

Long build-up was observed in Balkrishna Industries, Aditya Birla Capital, Indiamart Intermesh, while short build-up was seen in DLF, NALCO, and Bharat Electronics.

TCS, Oracle Fin Serv, Interglobe Aviation, Quick Heal Technologies, eMudhra, Hercules Hoists, Cigniti Technologies, Gujarat Themis, Waaree Renewable, among others, touched their 52-week high on the BSE.

Technical Analysis:

Nifty witnessed a swing of approximately 200 points but closed marginally in the green, indicating extreme volatility. It remains rangebound between 22,200 – 22,600 for the past seven trading sessions.

Multiple support parameters such as the 20-day moving average (22,199) and the previous swing low (22,224) are expected to absorb selling pressure on the downside. Immediate resistance is seen at 22,500 – 22,550.

Bank Nifty tested the 20-day moving average (46,900) and saw a decent pullback, closing slightly lower. Crucial support is placed at 47,000 – 46,900, with resistance in the zone 47,820 – 48,000.

Broader market witnessed significant declines with the Midcap Index closing down approximately 1.4% and Smallcap Index down around 1.98%. The small cap index has reached the 20-week moving average at 15,075, potentially reducing the intensity of further falls.

Conclusion:

The Indian market exhibited mixed sentiment amidst volatility, with certain sectors outperforming while others faced selling pressure. Investors are closely monitoring global cues, particularly US inflation data, for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Technical analysis suggests a range-bound movement for Nifty and Bank Nifty, with key support and resistance levels to watch. The broader market's performance indicates caution, with potential stabilization seen in small-cap stocks.

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Stock Market Report: March 11, 2024

Introduction:

On March 11, 2024, the Indian stock market experienced a significant downturn, influenced by a continued selloff in global markets amidst uncertainty over rate cuts. The Sensex and Nifty both recorded notable declines, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors.

Key Highlights:

Index Performance: The Sensex concluded the session down by 616 points at 73502, while the Nifty recorded a decline of 160 points settling at 22332. This marked a notable retreat from previous levels.

Market Breadth: Among the traded stocks, 1005 advanced, 2790 declined, and 131 remained unchanged, indicating a predominant bearish sentiment in the market.

Top Losers and Gainers: Leading the losses on the Nifty were Tata Consumer Products, Power Grid Corporation, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, and SBI. On the other hand, Apollo Hospitals, Nestle India, Cipla, and SBI Life Insurance emerged as the gainers. Bajaj Finserv also experienced a decline.

Sectoral Performance: All sectoral indices ended the day in negative territory, with auto, capital goods, FMCG, oil & gas, banking, information technology, realty, metal, and power sectors each witnessing a decrease of 0.5-1 percent. This broad-based decline highlighted the overall weakness in the market.

Mid-cap and Small-cap Indices: The BSE mid-cap index shed 0.2 percent, while the small-cap index fell by 2 percent, indicating a broader market underperformance.

Global Market Influence: Continued selloff in global markets due to uncertainty over rate cuts impacted the domestic market sentiment. Additionally, stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data and caution ahead of the release of US inflation data contributed to investor apprehension.

Market Sentiment: The market exhibited a volatile phase due to uncertainty over global interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and sluggish growth in key economies. Investors were observed rebalancing their portfolios to include safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical Analysis:

Nifty Outlook: Nifty has been fluctuating within an ascending channel, displaying a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The overall trend remains bullish, though currently undergoing an intermediate corrective phase. In the short term, Nifty could witness weakness, possibly declining toward the range of 22250-22100.

Bank Nifty Index: The Bank Nifty index faced strong resistance from bears at higher levels, prompting a downside move. Immediate support is identified at 47,000-46600 levels. A decisive close below this range could intensify selling pressure. To resume the uptrend toward all-time high levels, the index must surpass the mark of 47500 decisively.

Conclusion:

The Indian stock market witnessed a significant downturn on March 11, 2024, influenced by global market trends and domestic factors. Despite the volatile phase, the overall trend remains bullish, albeit undergoing a corrective phase. Investors are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.

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NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 11 MARCH 2024

The Nifty continued to hover below the psychological threshold of 22,500, as call writers at the 22,500 strikes notably augmented their positions. We anticipate support to hold steady around 22,400, as suggested by De. The strategy of buying on dips is likely to persist as long as the index maintains above this level. A clear breakthrough above 22,500 could stimulate buying activity, potentially propelling the index towards the 22,700 mark in the near term. In the event of a decline towards the range of 22,390 – 22,340, it is advisable to view it as a buying opportunity, as significant hourly moving averages are situated within this range, likely attracting buying interest. On the upside, the range of 22,570 – 22,600 is expected to serve as an immediate resistance zone from a short-term perspective.

Market Report: Mixed Sentiments Prevail as Indices Edge Higher

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Equity Market Overview:

The equity markets traded with subdued activity and closed almost unchanged on the weekly expiry day. The Nifty commenced the session with a flat start, oscillating within a narrow range before settling at the 22,493 level. While certain sectors, notably metal and FMCG, witnessed strong gains, others such as banking, auto, and energy closed in the red. Despite recent declines, broader indices managed marginal gains, providing some respite to investors.

Sectoral Performance:

A mixed trend persisted on the sectoral front, keeping market participants engaged. Metal and FMCG sectors stood out with robust gains, driven by favorable market conditions. However, sectors like banking, auto, and energy faced selling pressure, contributing to the overall subdued market sentiment.

Market Sentiment and Outlook:

Analysts view intermediate pauses in the market as healthy, provided there are no significant declines in the index. However, caution is advised against being overly influenced by prevailing benchmark trends. Emphasis is placed on prudent stock selection and risk management practices. Preference remains tilted towards index majors and large midcap stocks over small-cap counters.

Key Market Drivers:

The equity benchmark indices edged higher, buoyed by a positive trend in the US market and foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. Additionally, faster-than-expected economic growth projections for the fiscal year bolstered sentiments, particularly in metal and capital goods stocks. Global indices exhibited mixed sentiments, influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate adjustments.

Technical Analysis:

The Nifty struggled to breach the psychological 22,500 mark, with call writers at the 22,500 strikes increasing their positions significantly. Support is anticipated at the 22,400 level, with a buy-on-dips strategy expected to persist above this threshold. A decisive move above 22,500 could trigger buying interest, potentially propelling the index towards the 22,700 mark in the short term. Today, the Bank Nifty encountered resistance at the 48,000 level, finding support at 47700. Despite this, the weekly closure reflects resilient bullish momentum. Key support is identified at 47400, with resistance at 48000. A conclusive breach above 48500, confirmed by a closing basis, could catalyze a bullish upswing towards levels of 48700 and 48500.

Conclusion:

The equity markets continue to navigate through mixed sentiments, with various sectors displaying divergent trends. While challenges persist, opportunities for strategic investment remain. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on both short-term trends and long-term prospects.

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The domestic market benchmark, the Sensex, hit a fresh record high, surpassing the coveted 74,000 mark for the first time, while the Nifty 50 also reached a new peak in intraday trading on Wednesday, March 6th, on gains led by banking heavyweights, including Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Finally, the Nifty 50 closed at 22,474.05, up 118 points, or 0.53 per cent, while the Sensex settled at 74,085.99, up 409 points.

Thus, both indices settled at their fresh closing peaks.

Top Nifty 50 gainers today

As many as 35 stocks ended in the green in the Nifty 50 index among which Bajaj Auto ,Kotak Mahindra Bank  and Bharti Airtel  closed as the top gainers.

Top Nifty 50 losers today

Shares of Adani Enterprises ,NTPC and UltraTech Cement closed as the top losers in the Nifty 50 index.

Technical views on markets

It was observed that after the early morning correction, the market took support near 22,250 reversed sharply. It also formed a long bullish candle on daily charts, which supported a further uptrend from the current levels.

For the traders now, 22,350 would act as a key support level to watch out. Above the same, the market could continue the positive momentum till 22,575-22,600.On the flip side, below 22,350 traders may prefer to exit from the trading long positions,

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 Extending gains into the fourth consecutive session, frontline indices the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended at their fresh closing highs on Monday, March 4. The market lacks fresh triggers at this juncture which is keeping it in a range. The  robust economic growth and political stability after the General Elections 2024, are already discounted. 

Nifty 50 today opened at 22,403.50 against the previous close of 22,378.40 and touched its fresh all-time high of 22,440.90 during the session. The index finally closed at 22,405.60, up 27 points, or 0.12 per cent with 25 stocks in the green and an equal number in the red. The market traded in a rangebound manner due to weak global cues, while investors turned stock-specific due to the prevailing caution on broader indices. 

As observed  the daily charts, the Nifty has been inching higher, holding on to the gains. This consolidation should be considered as a healthy sign and in case the Nifty dips in the process of retesting the breakout (22,300 – 22,250) it should be considered as a buying opportunity.