Daily Market Report: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Performance Analysis

Nifty 50 Overview:

The Nifty 50 index has recently broken out of its consolidation phase, signaling a rise in market optimism. The index continues to sustain above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a positive sign for near-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart shows a bullish crossover, further reinforcing positive sentiment.

Key Technical Indicators:

• Closing Price (September 11, 2024): 24,918.45 (-0.49%)
• 21-Day EMA: Nifty has been trading above this level, indicating bullish momentum.
• RSI: 53 (Daily), 68 (Monthly), signaling healthy momentum.
• Trend: Nifty closed above its recent consolidation high, indicating strength in the current trend.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• Resistance: 25,100 – 25,145
• Support: 24,735 – 24,880, with deeper support at 24,630
• Upside Potential: The rally is expected to continue toward the 25,470–25,500 range.

Market Sentiment and Global Cues: Tracking global market trends, Indian benchmark indices like Sensex and Nifty are expected to open higher on Thursday. Gift Nifty indicates a positive start, trading around the 25,085 level, offering a premium of nearly 140 points from the previous close of Nifty futures.

Nifty 50 - Bearish Candlestick Pattern:

Despite the positive sentiment, the Nifty 50 formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which could indicate a potential downturn. Wednesday’s session saw a decline of 122.65 points, with the index closing at 24,918.45. The index found stiff resistance at the 25,100 level, witnessing selling pressure in the second half of the trading session.

Short-Term View: The trend remains range-bound to weak in the short term, with pullbacks towards 25,050 – 25,100 levels offering opportunities for traders to exit long positions. Further selling pressure is anticipated if the index dips below key support levels.

• Support Levels: 24,880 – 24,750
• Resistance Levels: 25,020 – 25,145

Bank Nifty Overview:

Bank Nifty continues to face selling pressure after failing to breach its 50-day moving average. The index ended Wednesday’s session 262.30 points lower at 51,010.00, or 0.51% down for the day.

Key Technical Indicators:

• Closing Price (September 11, 2024): 51,010.00 (-0.51%)
• 50-Day Moving Average: Acts as a strong resistance for the Bank Nifty index.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• Resistance: 51,400 – 51,500
• Support: 50,850 – 50,640

A close above the 51,500 level could trigger a short covering move, with an upward target of 52,000 – 52,400. On the downside, dips toward 50,850 – 50,640 can be used to initiate fresh long positions.

Open Interest (OI) Data:

• Call OI (Resistance): Highest OI observed at 25,100 and 25,200 strike prices.
• Put OI (Support): Highest OI observed at the 24,700 strike price.

Conclusion:

While Nifty 50 has broken out of its consolidation phase and maintained a bullish sentiment, caution is advised due to the bearish candlestick pattern that formed in Wednesday’s session. A pullback towards key support levels could provide entry points for fresh long positions, while resistance at 25,100 remains significant.

Similarly, Bank Nifty’s performance indicates resistance at 51,500, with short-term dips offering fresh opportunities for long positions. Both indices are influenced by global market trends and Gift Nifty's performance, suggesting a positive start to Thursday’s session.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW 11 SEP 2024

Overview

Indian equity markets ended on a strong note, with both Nifty and Sensex closing higher. Nifty crossed the 25,000 mark, finishing at 25,041, up 104 points (0.42%), while the Sensex gained 361 points to close at 81921.

• Nifty: +104 points (0.42%) to 25,041.
• Sensex: +361 points (0.44%) to 81,921.

The positive market sentiment reflects investor optimism despite global recessionary concerns, buoyed by India's growth prospects and sliding crude oil prices.

Key Market Observations:

• Nifty: Witnessed recovery from the support cluster at 24,800 – 24,850. The resistance lies in the zone of 25,100 – 25,150, where the 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level is placed. Divergent signals from daily and hourly momentum indicators suggest near-term consolidation within the range of 24,800 – 25,200.
• Bank Nifty: Continued its pullback, facing resistance around 51,400 – 51,500. The support zone is located at 50,800 – 50,900.

Candle Pattern Analysis:

A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadows. This pattern resembles a doji, although not a classical one, indicating a cautious stance for bulls at this point. A decisive move above 25,200 could open the possibility of new all-time highs, but immediate support rests at 24,900.

Sector Performance:

• Telecom and Media: Top performers, each gaining 2%.
• IT, Capital Goods, Healthcare, and Power: Registered gains of 1% each.
• Oil & Gas: The only sectoral index to end in the red.

Stock Movers:

• Gainers: Divis Labs, LTIMindtree, Bharti Airtel, Wipro, HCL Tech.
• Losers: HDFC Life, SBI Life Insurance, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance.

Market Dynamics:

• Volatility: The market exhibited volatility, with a knee-jerk reaction at the opening followed by a sustainable upmove during the afternoon. However, selling pressure towards the end of the session caused the market to trim its gains.
• Support and Resistance: After early intraday correction, Nifty found support around 24,900/81,400, leading to a reversal and a subsequent rally. The market closed above the critical psychological mark of 25,000/81,800. Below 25,000, the index could retest the 24,900/81,500 levels. Further downside may drag it to 24,850/81,300.

Mid & Small Caps:

• Midcap: BSE Midcap index rose by 0.5%.
• Smallcap: BSE Smallcap index outperformed, gaining 1.5%, ending a streak of underperformance.

Technical Outlook:

• Nifty: Closed just above the key resistance level of 25,100. A strong close above this level is required for confirmation of further upside towards the 25,150-25,175 zone.
• Support: Immediate support is seen at 24,900. A breach could lead to a fall towards 24,850 – 24,750.
• RSI: On the daily chart, RSI shows a bearish crossover, signaling weakness. The sentiment remains weak unless the Nifty decisively closes above 25,100.

Conclusion:

The market completed one leg of the pullback rally, and the 25,000/81,800 level is now crucial for traders. A sustained move above this level could see the index bounce towards 25,150/82,200. On the downside, failure to hold above these levels might lead to retests of lower support zones.

Investors should remain cautious in the near term, as market momentum is expected to stay in a consolidation phase. A break above or below the key resistance and support levels will determine the next directional move.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 10 SEP 2024

Market Overview: Indian markets rebounded on September 9, snapping a three-day losing streak. The benchmark indices closed higher, with the Nifty finishing at 24,936.40, gaining 84 points (0.34%), while the Sensex ended 375 points (0.46%) up at 81,559.

Despite a weak opening driven by negative global cues, the domestic market found support near its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and reversed, holding its positive momentum throughout the day. This recovery is attributed to strong performances in specific sectors, particularly FMCG, which surged by 2%, offsetting losses in Energy, Oil, and Gas sectors.

Technical Analysis:

• The formation of a small bullish candle on daily charts, coupled with reversal patterns on intraday charts, suggests the pullback may continue.
• Key support levels: 24,800 for Nifty and 81,000 for Sensex.
• Resistance levels: Nifty may face hurdles at 25,000–25,125, and the Sensex around 81,800–82,200. A breach below 24,800 could expose the market to downside risks, prompting traders to exit long positions.

Sectoral Performance:

• FMCG: The best-performing sector, rising by 2%, driven by gains in Hindustan Unilever (HUL), ITC, and Britannia.
• Banking: Positive momentum from ICICI Bank and Shriram Finance helped the Bank Nifty recover from intraday lows. Bank Nifty support is at 50,500-50,350, with resistance at 51,375-51,450.
• Energy, Oil & Gas: These sectors were the weakest performers, declining by over 1%.
• Mid and Smallcap: Both segments underperformed, with the midcap index down by 0.3% and the smallcap index shedding 0.6%.

Top Gainers:

1. HUL
2. Shriram Finance
3. ICICI Bank
4. ITC
5. Britannia Industries

Top Losers:

1. ONGC
2. Tech Mahindra
3. Hindalco Industries
4. NTPC
5. BPCL

Market Outlook: The bullish reversal pattern and the market’s ability to hold support near the 20-day SMA indicate that the pullback could extend further, with immediate targets of 25,000-25,125 on the Nifty. The support zone remains firm between 24,800–24,750, which will act as a critical threshold for maintaining the current trend. The upcoming data on US inflation and jobless claims will play a decisive role in shaping the global market sentiment.

Summary: Today's positive close and recovery suggest a potential continuation of the uptrend in the short term, with key sectors like FMCG and banking leading the charge. However, weakness in Energy, Oil & Gas, and global recession fears may create headwinds in the coming sessions.

Traders are advised to watch the key support and resistance levels closely, as market volatility remains high amidst global uncertainty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 26 AUG 2024

Overview:

The Indian benchmark indices ended flat in a volatile trading session on August 23. The market sentiment was cautious as investors awaited the speech of FED Chair Jerome Powell for signals on the future interest rate path.

• Sensex: Up 33.02 points or 0.04% to close at 81,086.21.
• Nifty: Up 11.70 points or 0.05% to close at 24,823.20.

Market Sentiment:

• The market showed mixed performance due to global uncertainties, leading to oscillations around a flat trajectory.
• The auto sector outperformed as it gears up for festive season demand with multiple launches.
• Most sectoral indices were in the red, indicating caution among investors.

Technical Analysis:

• Nifty opened flat and consolidated during the day, closing with minor gains of ~12 points.
• Nifty has closed positive for the seventh consecutive trading session, signaling a stretched upmove without a significant pullback.
• The hourly momentum indicator showed a negative crossover along with negative divergence, suggesting a possible intraday dip. Caution is advised for long positions.
• Nifty is nearing the 78.6% retracement mark at 24,830, which could restrict further upside. The overall trend remains sideways with a consolidation range between 24,200 and 25,000.

Bank Nifty:

• The Bank Nifty also experienced range-bound price action, closing marginally in the red.
• The index may resume its upmove after a few days of consolidation, with an expected upside towards 51,500 – 51,900 from a short-term perspective.
• Traders should maintain a stop loss at 50,400 for long positions.

Sector Performance:

• Top Gainers: Bajaj Auto, Coal India, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, and Bharti Airtel.
• Top Losers: Wipro, ONGC, Divis Labs, LTIMindtree, and Infosys.
• BSE Midcap Index: Down 0.6%.
• Smallcap Index: Ended flat.
• Sectoral Performance:
  • Auto: Up 1%.
  • Metal, Realty, Media, PSU Bank, IT: Down 0.5% to 2.5%.

Outlook:

• On Monday, markets are likely to react to global cues post the US Fed speech.
• Traders are advised to maintain a positive outlook unless Nifty decisively breaks below 24,500.
• The banking sector remains key to the next directional move, while other sectors are currently balancing each other.
• Traders should avoid aggressive positions and focus on stock-specific strategies.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & FREE TRADING TIPS FOR 23 AUG 2024

Market Overview:

Indian benchmark indices concluded the trading session on a positive note, with the Nifty closing above 24,800. The Sensex gained 147 points, closing at 81053, while the Nifty was up by 41 points, closing at 24811.

Sector Performance:

• Top Gainers:

  • Consumer, Metal, and PSU Banks: These sectors saw significant buying interest, driving the market upwards.
  • Top Performing Stocks:
    • Grasim Industries
    • Tata Consumer Products
    • Tata Steel
    • Bharti Airtel
    • Apollo Hospitals

• Top Losers:

  • Selective IT and Energy Stocks: These sectors experienced intraday profit booking at higher levels, leading to marginal declines.
  • Underperforming Stocks:
    • Tata Motors
    • Dr Reddy's Labs
    • NTPC
    • Wipro
    • M&M

• Sectoral Indices Performance:

  • Power Index: Declined by 1%.
  • Pharma, Oil & Gas, Auto, IT: Ended marginally lower.
  • Bank, FMCG, Metal, Realty, Telecom: Gained between 0.5% and 1.4%.
  • BSE Midcap and Smallcap Indices: Both rose by 0.5%.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & FREE TRADING TIPS FOR 22 AUG 2024

Overview

Indian benchmark indices ended the trading session on a positive note amidst a volatile environment. The Sensex climbed 102 points, closing at 80,905, while the Nifty advanced 71 points to settle at 24,770. Despite the initial flat start, selective buying towards the final hour of trading helped push the indices to close near their day's highs.

Market Performance

• Nifty: The Nifty opened flat and traded within a narrow range for most of the session. However, a late surge in buying activity lifted the index by 71 points to close at 24,770.
• Sensex: The Sensex mirrored Nifty's movement, closing with a modest gain of 102 points.

Sectoral Indices

• Gainers:
  • FMCG: The FMCG sector outperformed, gaining over 1.3% as investors shifted towards defensive stocks.
  • Pharma: Pharma stocks also saw positive movement, rising 0.91%.
  • Metals: The metal sector posted decent gains of around 0.5%.
  • Telecom & Media: Both sectors registered gains between 0.5% and 1%.
• Losers:
  • Realty: The Realty index was the worst performer, dropping 1.31%.
  • Banking: The banking sector remained under pressure, dipping by 0.2%, limiting the upside for the broader market.

Top Performers

• Divis Labs: Leading the pack, Divis Labs saw significant buying interest.
• Titan Company: Also performed well, contributing to the day's gains.
• SBI Life Insurance, Cipla, Grasim Industries: Other notable gainers.

Lagging Stocks

• Tech Mahindra: Was among the top losers.
• UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Power Grid Corp, HDFC Bank: These stocks also saw profit-taking.

Midcap and Smallcap Performance

• Midcaps: The BSE midcap index rose by 0.4%, aligning with the broader market trend.
• Smallcaps: The smallcap index outperformed with a gain of nearly 1%.

Technical Analysis

• Nifty Levels:

  • Support: Immediate support for Nifty is observed at the 24,450-24,600 zone.
  • Resistance: Nifty faces resistance at 24,850 and could advance to the 25,000 level. The next resistance is anticipated at 24,960, with potential movement towards 25,100 in the short term.
  • Momentum: A negative divergence is developing on the momentum indicator, suggesting that while the trend remains positive, the upward movement might slow down with possible intraday pullbacks.

• Bank Nifty:

  • Support: The Bank Nifty found crucial support at the 50,350-50,300 zone.
  • Upside Target: As long as this support holds, the index could rally towards the 51,000-51,500 levels. A stop loss of 50,300 is recommended for long positions.

Global Cues

Global markets maintained a cautious stance ahead of the FOMC minutes release. The expectation of a potential rate cut in the US remains high, driven by declining inflation and moderated economic growth. This global sentiment is likely to influence Indian markets, making it essential for participants to monitor developments in the US closely.

Conclusion

The Indian market continues its gradual ascent, supported by sectoral rotation and strong domestic institutional investor (DII) flows. While defensive sectors like FMCG and pharma lead the rally, caution prevails due to profit-taking in banking stocks. The Nifty is poised to challenge higher resistance levels, with a short-term target of 25,000+ on the horizon. However, traders should be prepared for potential pullbacks and closely watch key support levels.

This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the market trends, sectoral performances, and technical insights, helping participants make informed decisions.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 13 AUG 2024

Overview: Indian benchmark indices ended on a flat note in a highly volatile session on August 12. The Sensex closed down by 56 points, or 0.07%, at 79648, while the Nifty ended 20 points lower, at 24347. This session was marked by mixed signals and fluctuations in both directions, ultimately leaving the indices relatively unchanged.

Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment remained sideways to weak, with Nifty closing below the critical 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated weak momentum with a bearish crossover, suggesting that the market might continue to be a sell-on-rise scenario as long as it remains below the 24,500 level. On the downside, support is positioned at 24,150.

Sectoral Performance:

• Gainers: The Realty sector led the gains, rising over 1.35%, followed by the Metal sector. The broader indices, including mid and small caps, outperformed the benchmark indices, closing slightly in the green.
• Losers: The Media index was the major laggard, shedding nearly 2%. The FMCG, Power, PSU Bank, and Media sectors were down by 0.5-2%, while sectors like Bank, Telecom, IT, Oil & Gas, Metal, and Realty saw gains between 0.3-1%.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 9 AUG 2024

On August 8, 2024, the Indian stock markets experienced a highly volatile session, with both the Sensex and Nifty ending in the red. The Nifty50 fell below the critical 24,150 level, closing at 24,117, down 180 points or 0.74%. The Sensex also mirrored this trend, closing 581.79 points lower at 78,886.22, a decline of 0.73%.

Market Performance

• Sensex: 78,886.22 (-581.79 points, -0.73%)
• Nifty50: 24,117 (-180.50 points, -0.74%)
• BSE Midcap Index: -0.4%
• BSE Smallcap Index: Flat

Sectoral Analysis

The market was primarily dragged down by weak performances in key sectors like IT, metals, and energy. Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector showed resilience, ending as the best performer of the day.

• Top Performers:

  • Pharma: Demonstrated the best performance amidst a largely negative market, benefiting from defensive positioning by investors.
  • Healthcare & Media: Managed to close in positive territory, though gains were marginal.

• Underperformers:

  • Information Technology (IT): Suffered significant losses, with heavyweights like Infosys contributing to the decline.
  • Metals: Faced selling pressure due to global demand concerns.
  • Oil & Gas: Declined by 1-2%, largely due to concerns over global energy demand.
  • Realty: Followed the broader market's downward trajectory.

Key Movers

• Losers:

  • LTIMindtree: Among the top losers in the Nifty due to the overall weakness in the IT sector.
  • Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, Power Grid Corp, Infosys: These companies also faced significant selling pressure.

• Gainers:

  • HDFC Life, Tata Motors, SBI Life Insurance: Managed to post gains amidst the market downturn.
  • HDFC Bank, Cipla: Provided some support to the indices with positive performances.

Market Sentiment and Key Drivers

1. Global Cues:

   • Weak global markets contributed to the negative sentiment on Dalal Street. Concerns over a potential U.S. economic slowdown and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates sooner than expected led to caution among investors.

2. RBI Policy Decision:

   • The Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its current policy stance, coupled with an upward revision in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a more cautious growth forecast for Q1, weighed heavily on the market.

3. Technical Analysis:

   • Resistance and Support Levels:
     • Resistance: Nifty is facing resistance around the 24,350 level. A breach of this level is necessary to instill confidence among the bulls.
     • Support: The downside seems protected near the 23,965 level, close to the 50-day moving average (50DMA). A decisive break below 23,900 could lead to a further decline.
   • Market Oscillation: The index is oscillating in a wide range, with a breakout on either side likely to determine the market's direction in the near term.

4. Global Concerns:

   • Investors remained cautious due to ongoing global uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. economic data and its implications for global markets. The anticipation of a potential recession in the U.S. has added to the market's volatility.

Conclusion and Outlook

The Indian markets closed on a weaker note on August 8, reflecting the broader global market sentiment and domestic macroeconomic concerns. The Nifty’s inability to sustain gains from the previous session highlights the fragility of the current market environment.

Given the ongoing volatility, traders and investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach. Hedging strategies could be particularly beneficial in navigating the uncertain market conditions. The key levels to watch in the coming sessions will be the support at 23,965 and the resistance at 24,350. A breakout from this range could provide a clearer direction for the market's next move.

Recommendations

1. Traders: Consider adopting a hedged strategy, focusing on managing risks amidst the volatile environment. Watch for a breakout of the 23,965–24,350 range for directional trades.

2. Investors: Defensive sectors like pharma may provide some stability in portfolios. It may be prudent to avoid heavy exposure to IT and metals until there is greater clarity on global economic conditions.

3. Market Participants: Stay updated on global developments, particularly U.S. economic data, as these could significantly impact market sentiment in the short term.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 8 AUG 2024

Overview

On August 7, 2024, Indian benchmark indices ended on a strong note, with the Nifty closing at 24,297, up 305 points or 1.27%, and the Sensex finishing at 79,468, up 874 points or 1.11%. This rally came ahead of the anticipated RBI policy outcome, with all sectoral indices closing in the green. The broader market outperformed, with both the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising more than 2%.

Market Performance

• Nifty 50: Up 305 points or 1.27% at 24,297.
• Sensex: Up 874 points or 1.11% at 79,468.
• Market Breadth:
  • Advancers: 2,696
  • Decliners: 698
  • Unchanged: 72

Sectoral Performance

All sectors ended in the green, with significant contributions from:

• Metals: Top performer
• Pharma
• Oil & Gas
• Healthcare
• Media
• Power
• Telecom
• Capital Goods

Key Gainers and Losers

• Top Gainers:

  • Coal India
  • Adani Ports
  • Power Grid Corp
  • Cipla
  • Wipro

• Top Losers:

  • IndusInd Bank
  • Eicher Motors
  • Britannia
  • Tech Mahindra
  • Titan Company

Broader Market Performance

• BSE Midcap Index: Up over 2%
• BSE Smallcap Index: Up over 2%

Technical Analysis

Nifty witnessed a good recovery after three days of decline, trading positively throughout the session and closing above the 40-day average of 24,138. Key observations include:

• Candlestick Pattern: The formation of a long-legged DOJI pattern, indicating indecisiveness.
• Support Levels: Immediate support at 23,960.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate hurdles at 24,520 – 24,550; a decisive close above 24,500 needed for sustained rebound.
• Volatility: India VIX has cooled off, indicating a decrease in market volatility.

Bank Nifty

• Performance: Witnessed a late surge, closing well above intraday lows.
• Support Levels: Crucial support zone at 49,800 – 49,700.
• Resistance Levels: Potential for pullback to 50,600 – 50,800.

Global Influences

Global factors and headwinds persist, which could continue impacting Indian markets in the coming days. Key global influences include:

• Bank of Japan: Deputy Governor's reassurance of not raising interest rates during financial instability led to a rebound in global markets.
• Middle East Tensions: Risk-off sentiment due to rising tensions could lead to intra-day volatility.

Market Outlook

While the market experienced a relief rally today, ongoing global uncertainties suggest potential for further volatility. The RBI policy outcome, expected on Thursday, will be crucial, with the committee likely to maintain the current interest rate. Interest-sensitive sectors and stocks will be in focus.

Conclusion

The Indian stock market showed strong resilience and recovery on August 7, driven by positive global cues and broad-based buying across sectors. Despite the rally, market participants should maintain a cautious outlook due to potential volatility and global uncertainties. The Nifty's ability to sustain above the key resistance levels will be critical for a continued upward trajectory.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 7 AUG 2024

Market Summary

• Nifty50: Closed at 23,992, down by 63 points or 0.26%.
• Sensex: Closed at 78,633, down by 125 points or 0.16%.

Key Observations

• The market opened strongly, reaching higher levels but failed to hold onto the gains.
• Selling pressure intensified in the second half, leading to the Nifty50 ending the session in the red.
• A mixed trend was observed across various sectors:
  • Top Gainers: Realty and IT.
  • Top Losers: PSU Banks, followed by Auto.
• Broader markets underperformed the frontline indices with:
  • Midcaps: Down by 0.61%.
  • Smallcaps: Down by 0.39%.

Sector Performance

• Auto, Bank, Oil & Gas: Down by 0.5% each.
• IT, Metal, Realty: Up by 0.3-0.8%.

Notable Stocks

• Top Nifty Losers: HDFC Life, SBI Life Insurance, Shriram Finance, BPCL, SBI.
• Top Nifty Gainers: Britannia Industries, JSW Steel, HUL, L&T, Tech Mahindra.

Market Outlook

• Near-term Outlook for Nifty50: Bearish unless there is a convincing move above 24,400.
• Immediate Support: 23,880 (50DMA support).

Conclusion

Indian benchmark indices experienced a highly volatile session, closing marginally lower. The broader market weakness and the mixed trend across sectors indicate caution among investors. The near-term outlook for Nifty50 remains bearish unless it can break above the 24,400 level convincingly, with immediate support at 23,880.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 6 AUG 2024

Overview

On August 5, Indian benchmark indices experienced a significant decline due to a combination of global economic concerns and geopolitical tensions. The Nifty index closed at 24,055, down 662 points or 2.68%, and the Sensex closed at 78,759, down 2,222 points or 2.74%. The market was heavily impacted by global cues, leading to a massive sell-off across various sectors.

Key Indices Performance

• Sensex: 78,759.40 (-2,222.55 points, -2.74%)
• Nifty: 24,055.60 (-662.10 points, -2.68%)

Sectoral Indices Performance

All sectoral indices ended in the red, with the most significant declines observed in the auto, metal, capital goods, oil & gas, power, media, and realty sectors, each down by 4%.

Market Breadth

• Advances: 471 shares
• Declines: 3,082 shares
• Unchanged: 88 shares

Major Losers

• Tata Motors
• Adani Ports
• ONGC
• Hindalco
• Tata Steel

Major Gainers

• HUL
• Nestle
• Tata Consumer
• HDFC Life

Broader Indices Performance

• BSE Midcap Index: -3.6%
• BSE Smallcap Index: -4.2%

Analysis

Domestic and Global Influences

The sharp decline in the Indian markets was primarily driven by several global factors:

• Recession Fears in the US: Weak jobs data from the US raised concerns about a potential recession.
• Interest Rate Hike in Japan: The increase in interest rates led to a significant impact on the Yen-carry trade.
• Middle East Conflict: Escalating tensions in the Middle East added to the global uncertainty.

These factors contributed to a massive sell-off, with investors trimming their trading positions and adopting a cautious approach.

Technical Analysis

• Nifty: Closed below the crucial level of 24,075, violating the uptrend. The index also closed below the 20-day moving average of 24,575, indicating weakness.
• Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Key levels to watch are 23,628 and 23,280 (20-week moving average).
• Immediate Resistance Levels: 24,300 – 24,350.
• Support Levels: Key support at 23,800 and further support expected at 23,250 – 23,400 zone.

Bank Nifty

• Performance: Closed below the previous swing low of 50,440, suggesting a continuation of the fall.
• Support Levels: Likely to drift lower towards 47,650 – 47,500 (200-day moving average).
• Resistance Levels: 50,400 – 50,500.

Recommendations

For Traders

• Trim Trading Positions: Due to the high volatility and global uncertainties.
• Strict Stop Losses: Essential for both long and short positions.
• Option Writers: Exercise caution due to the increased market volatility.
• Hedged Approach: Prefer a hedged trading strategy to mitigate risks.

For Investors

• Long-Term Perspective: View the current correction as an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks.
• Phase-Wise Allocation: Consider allocating funds in a phase-wise manner over a 2/3-year horizon.

Conclusion

The Indian markets are experiencing significant volatility due to global economic and geopolitical factors. While the immediate outlook remains cautious, historical trends suggest resilience and potential for recovery in the long term. Traders should adopt a cautious and hedged approach, while investors may look for opportunities to accumulate quality stocks during this correction.

NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & OUTLOOK FOR 5 AUG 2024

Overview

The Indian benchmark indices ended their five-day winning streak with a significant decline. The Nifty index closed below the crucial 24,750 mark, driven by a global sell-off and lack of new upward triggers.

Key Indices Performance

• BSE Sensex: Down 885.60 points (1.08%) to close at 80,981.95
• NSE Nifty: Down 293.20 points (1.17%) to close at 24,717.70

Market Analysis

The market experienced a sharp decline, with the Nifty forming a spinning top pattern on the daily timeframe. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator showed a downward trend, suggesting a bearish crossover. The market sentiment appears to favor "sell on rise" traders as long as the Nifty remains below 24,800.

Support and Resistance Levels:

• Nifty Support: 24,530 and 24,400
• Nifty Resistance: 24,820 to 24,850

Bank Nifty Performance:

• Consolidated around the 40-day moving average (51,318), with less intensity in the fall compared to Nifty.
• Bank Nifty Support and Resistance Levels: 52,550 to 50,440

Sectoral Performance

• Outperformers: BSE Power, BSE Healthcare, BSE Oil & Gas, and BSE Power
• Underperformers: BSE Realty, BSE Auto, BSE IT, and BSE FMCG

Market Breadth

• Advances: 1426 shares
• Declines: 1960 shares
• Unchanged: 83 shares

Key Gainers and Losers

• Top Nifty Gainers: Divis Labs, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy's Labs, Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank
• Top Nifty Losers: Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel

Midcap and Smallcap Performance

• BSE Midcap Index: Down 1%
• BSE Smallcap Index: Down 0.5%

Domestic and Global Factors

• Domestic Data: India Manufacturing PMI at 58.1, GST collection growth of 10%
• Global Influences:
  • US Fed kept rates unchanged with a hint at a potential rate cut in September.
  • Bank of England announced a 25 basis points rate cut.
  • Weak earnings from the US IT sector.
  • Concerns over a rise in US unemployment and potential further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
  • Slowdown in China’s growth.

Future Outlook

• Nifty: Expected to retrace towards 24,600 to 24,550, with support from the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
• Bank Nifty: Likely to remain range-bound, with crucial levels to watch between 52,550 and 50,440.

The recent broad-based sell-off indicates market exhaustion and lack of new triggers for further upward movement. Investors will closely monitor Q1FY25 earnings and global equity market trends in the coming weeks.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 2 AUG 2024

 

Overview: Indian benchmark indices extended their winning streak for the fifth consecutive session on August 1, 2024. The Sensex closed up by 126.21 points (0.15%) at 81,867.55, while the Nifty increased by 59.70 points (0.24%) to close at 25,010.90. This marks the first time the Nifty has closed above the 25,000 level.

Market Movement:

• The Nifty remained range-bound throughout the day, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders. However, the index closed above the key psychological level of 25,000, supported by strong corporate earnings and positive global cues, particularly from the US markets.
• The Sensex also reached new highs, nearing the 82,000 mark, driven by gains in select sectors such as metals, oil & gas, and power.

Technical Analysis:

• The Nifty’s close above 25,000 signifies a continuation of the upward trend, breaking out of a recent sideways consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bullish crossover, although it is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting a potential for profit booking.
• Immediate support for the Nifty is at 24,900, with resistance levels at 25,100 and 25,250. The index has formed a Spinning Top candlestick pattern, which often indicates indecision in the market.

Sectoral Performance:

• Gainers: Energy, metals, oil & gas, and power sectors were among the top performers. Stocks like Coal India, Power Grid Corp, Shriram Finance, Dr. Reddy's Labs, and ONGC led the gains in the Nifty index.
• Losers: The auto, capital goods, IT, media, telecom, PSU Bank, and realty sectors experienced declines, with stocks such as M&M, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, and SBI being the major laggards.
• The BSE midcap and smallcap indices shed nearly 1% each, indicating a divergence in performance between large-cap and smaller-cap stocks.

Global and Domestic Factors:

• Positive cues from the US markets, influenced by indications from the Fed Chair about a possible rate cut in September, contributed to the positive sentiment in Indian markets. However, weak European market performance and mixed results from Asian indices limited the upside.
• Domestically, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices added to the market's cautious tone. This was further exacerbated by profit-taking in broader markets and underperformance in key sectors like banking.

Outlook:

• The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with traders encouraged by global market buoyancy and strong corporate earnings. However, the underperformance of banking stocks and profit-taking in broader indices pose challenges to sustaining the rally.
• The Nifty needs fresh triggers to break past its immediate resistance at 25,100. The approach remains to "buy on dips," with a focus on careful stock selection to navigate the current market dynamics.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 1 AUGUST 2024

 

Market Overview

Indian benchmark indices continued their positive trend for the fourth consecutive session. The Nifty closed at 24,951.20, up by 93.90 points or 0.38%, while the Sensex ended the day at 81,741.34, gaining 285.94 points or 0.35%. The market maintained a positive bias throughout the day, closing near the session's high.

Technical Analysis

• Nifty:

  • A small positive candle formed on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow, indicating an attempt at an upside breakout around the 25,000 mark.
  • The pattern of higher tops and bottoms continues, with no immediate signs of a reversal. A decisive move above 25,100 could lead to a sharp upside, with immediate support at 24,750 levels.
  • On the hourly chart, the Nifty has given a consolidation breakout, and the RSI indicates a bullish crossover on both the hourly and daily timeframes. A fresh leg of bullishness is expected above 25,000, with support at 24,900. A break below this level could see a correction towards 24,750.

• Bank Nifty:

  • The index remained range-bound, especially ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on the rate decision. It stayed below the 21 EMA, with the daily RSI showing a bullish crossover.
  • A sustained trade above 51,600 might trigger a rally towards 52,000-52,200, while support is placed at 51,200-51,000.

Sector Performance

• Top Performers:

  • Metals, Pharma, and Media: These sectors saw the highest gains, with each adding approximately 1%.
  • BSE Midcap Index: Added nearly 1%, showing strong performance.

• Underperformers:

  • PSU Banking Sector: Ended the session with a loss of 0.43%.
  • Smallcap Index: Ended marginally lower.

Top Gainers & Losers

• Top Gainers:

  • NTPC
  • Asian Paints
  • BPCL
  • JSW Steel
  • Tata Motors

• Top Losers:

  • Britannia Industries
  • Dr Reddy's Labs
  • Tata Consumer
  • Reliance Industries
  • Grasim Industries

Market Breadth

• Advances: 1,828 shares
• Declines: 1,613 shares
• Unchanged: 78 shares

Outlook

The Nifty is approaching the psychological barrier of 25,000. A sustained move above this level could push the index further towards 25,200, while on the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,800.

Bank Nifty's movement will likely be influenced by external factors, including the Federal Reserve's rate decision. A break above 51,600 could trigger a rally, with support at 51,000.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 31 JULY 2024

Market Overview

The domestic market ended relatively flat, largely due to profit-booking at higher levels. Despite the cautious sentiment, optimism was bolstered by expectations of dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) in their upcoming policy meetings this week. Additionally, investors are keenly observing the BoE and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), anticipating contrasting policy moves. The BoE is expected to consider lowering rates in response to rising unemployment and easing inflation, whereas the BoJ may increase rates due to surging inflation, potentially introducing market volatility.

Index Performance

The indices experienced a mixed session:

• Nifty50: After a muted opening, the Nifty50 surged higher, led by the Energy and Auto sectors. However, the gains were pared towards the session's end, with the index settling at 24,857, up 21 points. The formation of a DOJI candlestick pattern suggests indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. The index faces a strong psychological resistance at 25,000, with immediate support at 24,800 and 24,660.

• Sensex: The Sensex closed marginally higher, gaining 99 points ending at 81,455.

• Broader Markets: The broader markets continued their outperformance streak:

  • BSE Midcap Index: Rose by 0.3%.
  • BSE Smallcap Index: Advanced by 0.9%.

Sectoral Performance

Except for the FMCG and Healthcare sectors, all other sectoral indices ended in the green:

• Top Gainers: Power, Realty, and Auto sectors led the gains, up between 0.5%-1%.
• Sectoral Losers: FMCG and Healthcare sectors underperformed.

Top Gainers and Losers

• Top Nifty Gainers:

  • BPCL
  • NTPC
  • Tata Motors
  • Power Grid Corp
  • Asian Paints

• Top Nifty Losers:

  • Cipla
  • LTIMindtree
  • SBI Life Insurance
  • Grasim Industries
  • Sun Pharma

Market Sentiment

The market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, influenced by global cues and expectations of policy announcements. The mixed performance across sectors indicates a careful positioning by investors, balancing between potential gains and risk aversion.

Outlook

The market's near-term direction will likely be influenced by the upcoming policy decisions from major central banks. Investors are advised to closely monitor global economic indicators and central bank comments for cues on market direction. The psychological resistance at 25,000 for the Nifty50 remains a crucial level to watch, with significant support at 24,800 and 24,660.

NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 29 JULY 2023

 

Market Summary Report - July 26, 2024

Key Highlights

• Sensex and Nifty 50 Performance:
  • Sensex jumped 1,292.92 points (1.62%) to settle at 81,332.72.
  • Nifty surged 428.75 points (1.76%) to close at an all-time high of 24,834.85.
  • Both indices snapped a five-day losing streak.

Market Drivers

• Heavy Value-Buying:
  • The rebound was driven by value-buying at lower levels.
  • Blue-chip stocks like Infosys, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries led the recovery.
• Positive Global Cues:
  • Better-than-expected US GDP growth bolstered global demand outlook.
  • US CPI data showed moderate inflation, fueling hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Sector Performance

• Broad Market Rally:
  • BSE midcap gauge rose 2.12%, and the smallcap index rallied 1%.
  • Gains observed across sectors, with Metals and IT leading.
  • Midcaps outperformed broader indices.

Investor Sentiment

• Market Capitalisation:
  • Investors' wealth soared by ₹7.10 lakh crore.
  • Market cap of BSE-listed firms hit an all-time high of ₹4,56,92,671.33 crore ($5.46 trillion).
• Buy on Dip Strategy:
  • Investors refocused on quarterly earnings and stock-specific trends.

Technical Analysis

• Nifty 50:
  • Experienced a downward consolidation breakout on the daily chart.
  • Closed above the 21 EMA, signaling a bullish trend.
  • Potential rise towards 25,250 if sustained above 24,500.
• Bank Nifty:
  • Recovered 857 points from the day's low to close at 51,295.95.
  • An outside day pattern suggests a possible price expansion.
  • Reclaimed the 50-period EMA, indicating a short-term bullish reversal.
  • Resistance at 51,500 could lead to a rally towards 52,500; support at 51,000.

Global Market Context

• US Markets:
  • Dow Jones up nearly 2% at 40,694.
  • S&P 500 rallied 1.43% to 5,476; Nasdaq Composite up 1.22% at 17,392.
  • Positive economic data with US GDP exceeding expectations.
• GIFT Nifty:
  • Traded flat at 24,944 after a bullish run in Indian markets.

Conclusion

The domestic equity markets showed a strong recovery, driven by strategic buying and positive global economic signals. Technical indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with potential upside in both Nifty and Bank Nifty indices. Investors are encouraged by the overall economic data and market dynamics, pointing towards a positive outlook in the near term.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 26 JUL 2024

 

Overview

Indian benchmark indices exhibited a volatile trading session, ultimately closing nearly flat on July 25, 2024. The Sensex dipped by 109.08 points, or 0.14%, to settle at 80,039.80, while the Nifty decreased by 7.40 points, or 0.03%, closing at 24,406.10.

Market Performance

• Opening: The session started with a notable gap-down, driven by weak global cues and selling pressure in major banking stocks.
• Recovery: A recovery in select heavyweight stocks helped minimize losses, enabling the indices to close near the flat line.
• Sector Performance:
  • Gainers: The energy, auto, and pharma sectors performed well amidst the choppy market conditions.
  • Losers: The metal and banking sectors faced significant downward pressure.

Sectoral Highlights

• Top Gainers:
  • Tata Motors
  • ONGC
  • SBI Life Insurance
  • BPCL
  • Sun Pharma
• Top Losers:
  • Axis Bank
  • Nestle India
  • Titan Company
  • ICICI Bank
  • Tata Steel

On the sectoral front:

• Gainers: Auto, capital goods, power, oil & gas, healthcare, and media sectors rose by 0.5-3%.
• Losers: Bank, IT, metal, realty, and telecom sectors declined by 0.5-1%.

Broader Market

• The BSE midcap and smallcap indices ended marginally lower, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Market Insights

• Support and Resistance Levels: The Nifty demonstrated resilience, with strong support at the 24,200 level. This support level is crucial for maintaining the uptrend. Conversely, the level of 24,560 is seen as an immediate hurdle.
• Global Influence: An overnight slump in US equities led to profit-taking in domestic markets, particularly in banking, IT, metals, and realty stocks. However, buying in oil & gas and automobile stocks towards the end of the session helped recover most losses.
• Valuation Concerns: Despite stretched valuations in the Indian markets, there remains enthusiasm among retail investors, particularly in the broader market. This enthusiasm is likely to prompt a shift towards large-cap stocks.

Outlook

• The market is currently in a consolidation phase, showing significant resilience. Investors are advised to seek buying opportunities on dips, with a focus on stock selection. The performance of global indices, especially in the US, will be closely monitored for further cues.

Summary

Overall, the market's ability to recover from initial losses and close near the flat line underscores the underlying strength in select sectors and stocks. The focus remains on navigating through global uncertainties and domestic sectoral performances.

This report encapsulates the market dynamics of July 25, 2024, providing a comprehensive overview of the day's trading activity, sectoral performance, and key insights for investors.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 25 JUL 2024

Overall Market Performance: On July 24, 2024, Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the fourth consecutive session. The Sensex dropped by 280 points, closing at 80,148. The Nifty declined by 65 points, or 0.27%, settling at 24,413. The market displayed volatility, with Nifty forming a small negative candle on the daily chart, indicating a high wave type candle pattern after a recent decline from new highs.

Technical Analysis:

• The Nifty failed to hold the 10-day EMA and is currently testing the support at the 20-day EMA around 24,270 levels. A breakdown below this level could signal further weakness, potentially bringing the index to 24,100 or lower.
• A bullish hammer and high wave pattern formed over the last two sessions suggest a potential halt in the downward trend. A decisive move above 24,580 could indicate a near-term bottom reversal.