NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 13 FEBRUARY TO 17 FEBRUARY 2023

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17900, 18100, 18300

PIVOT POINT: 17800

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17600, 17400, 17200

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

During this week, indices remained almost unchanged. FPI flows in India remained negative. Nifty 50 stocks' reported Q3FY23 earnings so far have been broadly in line with expected lines. The RBI's monetary policy committee hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points and remained concerned about core inflation. International oil prices are up this week with Brent Crude now trading near $86-87 a barrel. As the 2023 third quarter earnings season draws to a close, investors' focus will now shift to domestic and global macro factors. We had a nervous start to the week due to weak global signals on February 6th, 2023. Selling intensified somewhat in the first half from some heavyweights and as it progressed the Nifty slipped towards the 17700 level. Fortunately this intraday support cushioned the weakness and on a modest recovery in the second half Nifty ended the session on one half percent drop just above 17750. The banking room showed some resilience in the first hour but eventually failed to hold higher levels leading to yesterday's market sluggishness. On the morning of February 8th the global set-up was somewhat comfortable and in line with this our markets started the session on a positive note. Strength continued ahead of RBI monetary policy and as the result was broadly in line with consensus (rate hike 25 basis points) we saw consolidation thereafter. Buying resumed towards the end of the session to eventually close just above the 17850 level with over eight tenths of a percent gains. We had a flat start to the 9 Feb 2023 session due to muted global cues. For the first hour the reference index remained slightly under pressure, testing the area below 17800. However, as the day progressed the recovery gradually took place to eventually ending the session with nominal gains. On February 10, 2023, the market ended up 17900 higher in the volatile session with Nifty. At the close, the Sensex was up 142 points to 60806 and the Nifty was up 21 points to 17893. Traders mostly stayed on the sidelines as there were no new positive triggers on worries of a global slowdown and no signs of a pause in the global tightening cycle continued to weigh on the mood. Although the markets have been range bound with a positive bias, the volatility in the market could continue in the near term.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

Nifty saw a small high-low range of 74 points on Friday, which is the lowest since December 14, 2022, likely due to the reduction in volatility. On a weekly basis, the Nifty closed just 0.01% higher, essentially flat, after a week of gains. It also formed a lower high and a higher low compared to the previous week. This narrowing of the range across the daily and weekly timeframes could indicate higher moves/breakouts in Nifty on either side. Until then, Nifty could remain in the 17650 -18100 range for the short-term. The index could find support in the 17700 -17800 area. Coming to the OI data, on the call side the highest OI was observed at 18,000 followed by 18,100 strikes, while on the put side the highest OI was at 17,700 strikes. On the upside, Bank Nifty has support at 41,000-41,100 while resistance sits at 42,000-42,200. As markets continue to trade across a wide spectrum with high volatility, we advise traders to book profits on their trading positions.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Technically, the index took the support near 17600 and reversed but it failed to close above 17900, the important resistance mark. Currently, the Nifty is consolidating near the 20-day SMA and it also formed inside the body candle on weekly charts.For the traders now, 17,900 would be the immediate breakout level to watch out, above the same the index could move up to 18200. On the flip side, fresh selloff is possible only after the dismissal of 17700. Below the same selling pressure is likely to accelerate and the index could slip till 17600 -17,500.