NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK FOR 3 APRIL TO 7 APRIL 2023

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WEEKLY RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY: 17400, 17600, 17800

PIVOT POINT: 17200

WEEKLY SUPPORT FOR NIFTY:  17000, 16800, 16600

WEEKLY CHART FOR NIFTY

The easing in US markets over the weekend resulted in a positive start for our markets on March 27, 2023 as the benchmark index, the Nifty, surged higher from the lows and maintained momentum throughout the day. Favorable global conditions certainly bode well for the bulls and any dips have been bought convincingly. However, a sell-off triggered by the end of the fag suggests hesitation in the higher seats as traders preferred to take money off the table until the end. Amid the tug of war, Nifty ended the first day of the shortened week on a muted note, raising 0.24% and settling just below the 17000 level. The Indian stock market had a lackluster trading day on March 28, 2023 as there was no buying interest. Despite a positive start hinted at by the SGX Nifty, the bulls lacked the confidence to capitalize on the move and the benchmark index remained in a narrow range throughout the day. Amid the cloudy day, Nifty corrected 0.20% from its previous day's close and settled slightly above the 16950 level. The last expiry session of the fiscal year on March 29, 2023 was volatile, with an intense tug of war between bulls and bears throughout the day. And finally, at the bottom of the fag, the bulls attacked to float the market. Amid all the whiplash action, the benchmark index managed to hold onto higher ground, helped by the rally to cover short positions, and ended the day on a positive note. The Nifty50 index settled slightly below the 17100 level for the day, posting a gain of 0.76%. On March 30, 2023 the market was closed for RAMNAVAMI. Domestic equity markets ended the week of March 31, 2023 on a strong note. For the week, domestic markets closed in positive territory. Sensex 30 and Nifty 50 Index rose more than 2%. BSE Midcap and BSE Small Cap Index up ~1-2%. Most industry indices posted positive gains over the week. However, the BSE Power Index posted negative returns during the week. Benchmark indices closed strong with Nifty above 17,300 while buying was seen across all sectors. Finally, the Sensex rose 1,031 points to 58991 and the Nifty rose 279 points to 17359.

NIFTY BANKNIFTY: STRONG SUPPORT& STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL

As the fiscal year ended, the market experienced an uptrend marked by bullish moves in the banking and IT sectors, driven by robust global signals. Notably, increased interest from overseas institutional investors due to moderation in Indian equity valuations also contributed. While the US market awaits the release of personal consumption spending data, which is believed to be a key indicator in forecasting future Federal Reserve action, domestic investors are awaiting the RBI MPC meeting scheduled for next week. Markets will continue to focus on inflation numbers in major economies and related central bank actions. Domestic markets will pay close attention to the RBI policy meeting scheduled for next week. In the coming weeks, the market will also focus on the Q4FY23 earnings season. Bulls remained at the helm as the benchmark Nifty closed well above the crucial 17250 resistance level. On the daily chart, the index has moved above the recent consolidation, indicating a rise in optimism. The momentum oscillator RSI has entered a bullish crossover. The trend is likely to remain strong as long as it stays above 17200. On the upside, the next key level is 1750017600 where bears will wait.

 TECHNICALLY SPEAKING

Markets saw a perfect ending to FY23 as charged bulls went berserk on Dalal Street thus propelling both the benchmark indices to close above the psychological mark. The rally was long overdue as fading worries over the recent turmoil in the US and European banking industry prompted investors to latch upon the beaten down stocks. Also, falling US bond yields and the return of FIIs into the local markets in recent sessions have bolstered the market sentiment. Technically, on daily charts the Nifty has formed a higher bottom formation and on weekly charts it has formed a long bullish candle which is broadly positive. In addition, after a long time the index is trading above the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) level which too is indicating further uptrend from the current levels. For traders, 20-day SMA or 17200 would act as a sacrosanct support zone, and above the same the index could rally till the 200-day SMA or 17500-17700. However, below the 20-day SMA, uptrend would be vulnerable. Meanwhile, in the Bank Nifty, positive sentiment is likely to continue in the near future and 40200 could be the key support level. Above which, it could rally till the 50-day SMA or 40800. Any further upside could lift the Bank Nifty till 41200.