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In the absence of a new
trigger, investors booked some gain. The domestic market is trading at a
premium valuation. With the June quarter numbers not coming in better than
expected so far, the stretched valuation is likely to trigger a market
correction. The current rally is causing valuations to move beyond comfort
levels. Sensex now trades at 25 times last year's earnings. It is important to
note that the rally is being driven by P/E expansion and not corresponding
earnings growth. Earnings growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 is subdued
except in the banking sector and refining. The results indicate that rural
demand has not yet picked up significantly. After opening 5 points higher at 66532
from the previous close of 66527, the Sensex remained volatile throughout the
session, hovering around 270 points. The index finally closed 68 points lower
at 66459, while Nifty ended the day down 20 points, at 19733. On the daily chart, Nifty formed a small
bearish candlestick, indicating indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears.
Below 19,700, the market could retest the 19675-19625 level. Renewed uptrend
rally is not possible until 19775 break and above that index could rally to
19850-19900.
Resistance: 19775, 19825, 19900
Support: 19625, 19550, 19500
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