The benchmark indices had a rollercoaster ride as the opening session was dominated by bears, but short coverage has emerged in the last few hours. Global equities fell on Fitch Ratings' downgrade of US Treasury debt, prompting a quick retreat from risky assets. Sensex closed at 65782.78, down 1.02 percent and Nifty closed at 19526.55, slipping 207 points, or 1.05 percent. While Bank Nifty closed the session at 44995.70, it was down 1.31 percent. The weakness also spread to broader markets as Nifty Midcap and Small Cap ended lower. India VIX is up 9.73% on the day to settle at 11.28. Nifty's put-call ratio remains at the 0.75 level. The Nifty opened a gap on the downside today and continued to drift lower throughout the day to close around 200 points down. On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has closed below the 20-day moving average (19,622), which has served as support since the bullish movement began in April 2023, which is a sign of short-term weakness. The daily momentum indicator is showing a negative crossover, which is a sell signal, and the indicator is still off the equilibrium line, suggesting that weakness may persist. On the hourly charts, the Nifty has bounced off the bottom of the decline, however, a trend reversal is unlikely to occur on this channel. We expect Nifty to continue weakness and on the downside target 19,100 from a short-term perspective. Key support levels to watch for are 19,420 19,400 and on the upside, 19,600 19,630 is the immediate hurdle zone. Bank Nifty has also seen a sharp decline, closing well below the 20-day moving average (45,400), which is a sign of weakness. Since the daily momentum indicator is also showing a negative crossover, which is a sell signal, both the price and momentum indicators are pointing to further correction. On the downside, 44,000 is the short-term target with a reversal at 45,800.
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